An in-depth analysis of Brandon Miller’s game [OC]

*\[Hi folks, this was originally meant for a more general NBA audience, so please excuse any “no duh” things in here for Hornets fans. Thanks!\]*

Brandon Miller entered the league with more uncertainty swirling around him than any #2 pick in recent memory. Character concerns, a poor March Madness showing (partially due to an injury), and questions about whether Miller was truly worthy of being the second pick ahead of heavily hyped prospects like Scoot Henderson and the Thompson twins contributed to perhaps the least-celebrated selection in years.

Not all of those questions can be answered in a couple of months, of course. But on the court, Miller is starting to look like a star two-way wing, the most coveted archetype in the NBA. I doubt Hornets fans would trade Miller for any of the players selected behind him.

The Hornets’ outrageous rash of injuries (and Miles Bridges’ suspension for heinous domestic violence) meant that they have been one of the most incomplete teams in the league even before several of their best players were traded. Nobody on the team has missed fewer than six games, and many of the biggest names, including LaMelo Ball, promising second-year center Mark Williams, and since-traded $30 million man Gordon Hayward, have missed dozens. This team has given real minutes to Yoda-sized and Yoda-aged Ish Smith, who has seemingly been a borderline NBA player for his entire career.

*\[I’ve collected a bunch of illustrative video clips for this post. You* [*can view those video clips in-context here*](https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/brandon-miller-will-be-a-winner-dont)*, and I think they add a lot to the post.\]*

Add it all up, and Miller is playing with a new combination of often replacement-level teammates practically every night — and it shows in the standings, where the Hornets are one of the worst teams in the league.

There is a silver lining, though. Miller has been thrust into a more significant role than even he likely imagined. Without much guard depth before recent trade-deadline acquisitions, the Hornets have been running big chunks of their pick-and-roll offense through Miller. For the season, Miller is averaging nearly 17 points, four rebounds, and two assists while shooting 44% from the field and 39% from deep on high volume. In eight February games, Miller is up to 24 points and 43% three-point shooting on nearly eight long-balls per game.

As a scorer, he’s become more adept throughout the season at leveraging the pick *and* the roll to get a bit closer to the basket before rising up for that silky midrange: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/brandon-miller-will-be-a-winner-dont)\]

The three-point shot is not as aesthetically pleasing to my eyes (his shooting hand flies forward like a leashed puppy darting after a squirrel), but it’s just as effective. 39% on six triples per game is impressive on its face, but consider this: [only Miller and Keegan Murray (last year) have ever hit those benchmarks as a rookie](https://stathead.com/basketball/player-season-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=1968&display_type=per_g&ccomp%5B1%5D=gt&cval%5B1%5D=5.9&cstat%5B1%5D=fg3a_per_g&ccomp%5B2%5D=gt&cval%5B2%5D=.385&cstat%5B2%5D=fg3_pct&season_end=1). In other words, this season is one of the greatest combinations of accuracy and volume we’ve ever seen in someone’s first year.

Miller was entirely a catch-and-shoot player to start his career, but as Charlotte ballhandlers started dropping like flies, he added an off-the-dribble triple (he now [shoots two per game](https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1641706/shots-dash?LastNGames=10), a sign of his burgeoning confidence). This is a club that stars must have in their golf bag to open up the rest of their game: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/brandon-miller-will-be-a-winner-dont)\]

(Tangent: I love that Buzz City court. Charlotte’s overall art is some of the league’s best.)

Speaking of the rest of his game, Miller’s passing is tantalizing but limited. At this point in his career, he’s a play finisher, not a playmaker, and that’s fine. There are times when he throws pinpoint alley-oops that even starting point guards might struggle with…

\[[alley-oop pass video here](https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/brandon-miller-will-be-a-winner-dont)\]

…and there are times when he takes yet another contested pull-up midranger and looks off or misses wide-open teammates. He has to get better at making the easy kick-out passes when he’s swarmed in the painted area instead of barfing up a deeply difficult shot, particularly early in the shot clock: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/brandon-miller-will-be-a-winner-dont)\]

Decision-making issues are the natural byproduct of a highly-touted rookie scorer growing through pains on an awful team. His basic and advanced passing numbers are similar to Kevin Durant’s rookie season, and Durant has become a more than acceptable passer. But Miller must — and should — improve in subsequent seasons. He’s at least shown the ability to make high-level passes occasionally; he needs to see the opportunities more often. That will come as the game slows down for him.

Miller’s handle, similarly, can be tightened up (although he’s already become noticeably more comfortable with changing tempos as the season has gone on). He can use it to get past the first line of defense, but he hasn’t entirely developed the ability to get all the way to the rim yet consistently. This was something that dogged him in college, too.

He does look comfortable attacking closeouts, and he will occasionally uncork a dunk so nasty that you wonder why he can’t do it more often. Walker Kessler had to be reconstituted from his component particles after challenging Miller here: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/brandon-miller-will-be-a-winner-dont)\]

Along those lines, the highest-end Miller outcomes profile to be someone like Paul George, Jayson Tatum, or Kevin Durant (in tendencies, if not talent). But as rookies, all three of those players took more than a quarter of their shots at the hoop. Only [20% of Miller’s field goal attempts](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5214#tab-shooting_frequency) have been at the rack, and he is more comfortable pulling up for the middie. That trend has held steady throughout the year. Unless he becomes a truly historic jump-shooter (possible, but mathematically unlikely), that will have to change if he ever wants to approach those superstars.

He is already trending the right way on the other end. Miller is a high-effort, high-IQ defensive player. The bold outlines of an excellent stopper are there; he just has to color them in.

Miller’s 7’2” wingspan is apparent whenever he scuttles alongside ballhandlers, hands always held high. His rotations are better than most rookies and many vets, and he’s usually aggressive but balanced on his closeouts. He’s at his best in isolation, using his length to dictate the rules of engagement: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/brandon-miller-will-be-a-winner-dont)\]

Are there mistakes? Of course; no rookie can avoid the inevitable ball-watching moments. But he’s learning quickly despite working in a poor defensive environment.

Miller isn’t afraid to get grimy, either. He’s [top-15 in total charges taken ](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle?PerMode=Totals)leaguewide and behind only LaMelo Ball in deflections per game for the Hornets (although I’d like to see that number tick higher). He’s a good communicator, pointing out matchups in transition and switching as effectively as any Hornet when required to (a low bar, to be sure).

Miller has solid verticality in the air, but he gets caught with his hand in the cookie jar a bit too often when trying to stymie drivers. For a rookie, however, his foul rate is acceptable. Experience will teach him when he can and can’t get away with little pokes at the ball.

Perhaps surprisingly, given his height, [coach Steve Clifford has had Miller primarily defending smaller ballhandlers or shooters](https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1641706/head-to-head), barring the occasional OG Anunoby or Scottie Barnes. Charlotte doesn’t run nearly as much zone as they once did, but when they do, Miller often spearheads the defense at the point of attack. This is partially due to Charlotte’s poor guard depth, although having to defend zippy jitterbugs should accelerate Miller’s defensive development, and partially due to a lack of strength. Adding muscle will come with time.

Miller is more of a positionally sound defender than a playmaker at this point, although you wouldn’t know it from his last few games. He averaged a steal and a block per game in college, and I’d expect him to eventually be a two-stock guy in the NBA. He flashes frenetic spurts of promising activity, particularly in his transition defense: \[[sick chase-down block video here](https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/brandon-miller-will-be-a-winner-dont)\]

One other thing that can’t be adequately quantified: Miller plays with a welcome passion. Most rookies are concerned about finding their place in a team’s pecking order, trying to meet expectations, and avoiding the coach’s doghouse. Miller wants to win, and he isn’t shy about it. Check him [screaming at teammates to “get the f\*\*\* back!”](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLGya3IgnTs) when he was displeased with their transition defense. He’s also been involved in several minor dust-ups with opponents, the kind where he refuses to be dogged out.

Rookies are rarely that assertive, but as I said at the start, Miller is a rare breed. We’ve almost never seen rookies come in and be this productive as three-point shooters, and he’s ahead of what I expected as a ballhandler and defender. Miller is already a strong 3-and-D-and-a-little-more player with a winning attitude, and he’s leveling up rapidly.

He has things to improve on before he can reach his final form, of course. As Pokémon taught me, nobody evolves without a little grinding. But the Miller conversation has transcended the questions that haunted him months ago; instead, we’re asking how good he can ultimately become. Without a doubt, that shift is the most important Charlotte Hornets victory this season.