Just a hypothetical outside the echo chamber of my team's subreddit.
Both of our teams have similar needs and both are likely gunning for MHJ or Nabers. I'm sure everyone has an opinion on who is better, but both are amazing prospects that I'm sure either team will be happy getting. Regardless if there is a trade down from either team, 8 or 9 is the lowest pick and still have a choice at one of the top offensive options: MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Alt, and Bowers. Anything lower and you're relying on a lucky fall or a trade up which is never guaranteed.
The Giants on the other hand are looking for JJ, no question there, and are absolutely in the market for a trade up. Their best hope is that we both pick MHJ/Nabers without any trades. But will they want to risk it when the Vikings are clearly more desperate to move up then they are, as evidenced by the Texas trade?
As said, we both have a depth issue and need top prospects to reload the team. As for current draft compensation and estimated pick value (via Tankathon/Harvard Sports Analysis Collective)
- Cardinals: 11 picks, 6 in the top 100 (plus 104) – Value at 1412.1
- Chargers: 9 picks, 3 in the top 100 (plus 105 and 110) – Value at 997.0
- Giants: 6 picks, 3 in the top 100 (plus 107) – Value at 809.9
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Now with established context, the trade:
Cards trade down to 6 for something like their first next year and some later pick this year. Then we swap spots from 5 and 6 for say a second and a third.
Don't take the actual trade packages literally, just that sort of day one/two/three package. No point attempting to determine the perfect transaction.
The Giants get JJ, we get MHJ and plus extra picks, and you still get Nabers plus extra picks.
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How I rationalize it:
Of course this is under the assumption that if MHJ drops, you guys won't immediately pick him. Which if it happens is completely understandable. It's also under the bas assumption that we want MHJ over Nabers enough to make this sort of deal. If we end up with Nabers and a very large haul, no complaints there.
Teams will be worried about trading down to 5 when they could be leapfrogged at 4. For what will no doubt cost a massive amount of picks, not getting the QB you wanted anyway while losing one or more future firsts is a nightmare scenario (for them). If JJ is gone at 4, any trade down would be far less lucrative without the QB tax. Maybe the Bears would trade up, but they only have four picks total, three since 1 will be Caleb.
In this scenario, we both get the players that we would have likely picked anyway plus extra picks each. Everyone wins with the only team taking a risk being the Giants.
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I may just be crazy and obviously it's all guessing until the 25th. But I figure may as well get the thoughts from the audience that knows the Chargers better than I.
4 comments
Seems plausible other than the fact that involving 3 teams makes trades way harder.
The reality is that if AZ wants to trade down, there probably won’t be a huge market for the Chargers to trade back and pick up assets. If AZ wanted to just split the asset haul with the Chargers, I’m sure they’d be willing to listen.
Some portion of people will say the Chargers would draft Alt (or other RT flavor of the week). That’s plausible, but wouldn’t preclude this type of deal. Maybe the Bolts could find a trade partner who really wanted a WR alternatively, but the candidate there isn’t super obvious if the Giants take McCarthy at #4.
I’m not following what the offer is but if we get the guy we want and extra picks, sign me up.
Yeah, would like this in theory. But in practice I don’t think the Giants want to pull the trigger on any of these QBs
If the Chargers were planning on drafting an elite receiver at 5, I don’t think they would trade with the Cards for pick 6 unless the Chargers think there is a negligible difference between MHJ and Nabers, while the Cards think differently and would be willing to give up draft capital to get their receiver of choice.
If the Chargers were planning on drafting a different position, I think they would trade down. Does it make sense to trade down to 6 or go further down and receive even more draft capital? Very likely the latter.
If the Cards want MHJ, they’ll stay at 4. I don’t think your proposed scenario would pan out.