NBA PLAYOFFS EXPERT PICKS: Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 6! VSiN PrimeTime – 05-16-24
that is Jonathan Von toel I’m Tim Murray we’re live in Las Vegas Nevada game six tonight in the Twin Cities due the Minesota Timberwolves force a game seven against the Denver Nuggets right now after dropping three in a row they are two and a half Point favorites against the Denver Nuggets Vin prime time is always presented by Zen nicotine pouches to learn more head on over to zen.com all right jbt as uh we get ready and break down everything possible also lots of NFL schedule discussion today jbt I’ll tell you this grinding through the schedule taking a look at rest advantages rest disadvantages how do we find an edge I’ll be honest I was driving to work today and I thought of something I was like hm probably should have thought of that this morning and that would have been a helpful topic maybe we’ll save it for tomorrow but a lot to get to today no doubt about it two games on the ice as well do the New York Rangers finally finish off the Carolina Hurricanes they are an underdog against the Hurricanes they’ve dropped two in a row will there be a game seven in Madison Square Garden but jbt we have seen a Minnesota Timberwolves team that you and I backed to win this series that you believed in way back in November that had a chance to win the Western Conference they jump out to a 20 lead the only one the only one this this show even though you weren’t fully on this show until February vent Prime Time right only show that believed in the Minnesota Timberwolves now they’re down three games to two their backs are against the wall and you wrote on von.com which we’ll get to in Best Bets a little bit later on this hour your belief of what they will try to to from a defensive standpoint this evening well I mean you got no other choice right you you haven’t really tried you haven’t tried much other than what you’ve been doing this entire time and so why not just go in a direction which you haven’t gone in yet so you’re expecting something different right I mean you have to we can invoke the Oklahoma City Thunder from yesterday which we thought hey look like at this point it just makes sense to at least bench Josh getting go somewhere else well they did Z Jo gets a start other guys get more minutes here for Minnesota and Denver I I think that the strategy now if you look at the last couple of games it’s dude we got to get the ball out of nikolic’s hands we cannot have him beat us yet again and especially when you’re talking about being on the road and in a very basic sense there’s a better basketball way to put this asking everybody else to beat you over the three games that they have won consecutively Denver joic 33 points 9.3 rebounds 9.3 assists on 60% shooting from the floor like essentially 61% shooting 60.6 you round up um so you got to try something different and so why not go ahead and try to throw some doubles at him try to get the ball out of his hands try to say all right hey Jamal Murray who has only averaged about 16 points per game in this series you beat us hey uh Michael Porter Jr who’s doing absolutely nothing in this series you beat us Aaron Gordon’s actually done quite a bit you beat us right like you know just trying to get the ball out of jokic’s hands and not allowing him to cook the way that he did in that third quarter and how he has over these last three games and so when you get to this point where hey something’s got to change what’s the most obvious one it would be doubling up yic and allowing others to to play so I’m going to be very curious to see what their strategy is going to be if they’re willingly going to send doubles at joic when he gets the ball in the post and they’re going to try to get the ball out of his hands obviously from a player prop standpoint that would be a key on over yic and his assists which you know he’s gone over that number quite a few times and he’s averaging 9.3 assists I believe his numberers right around eight and a half here today over on point total props for some of these role players tonight which would be Jamal Murray Aaron Gordon Michael Porter Jr those are the things that you might be looking at but this is why I also think Tim we talked about this a lot when it comes to being in a place where you have a spot like DraftKings that hangs adjusted player props throughout these games you don’t know yet if they’re going to do that so wait till the game starts and if in the first possession that he has the ball at the low post they send a double at him you kind of know the strategy is going to change and you could take one of those angles but I would assume that that’s we’re going to see something different today because it has not worked the last three games for you so you mentioned Michael Porter Jr and this is fascinating once again over at von.com we’re running a special by the way I don’t know if you’ve heard 14 months for $199 and when you sign up for that great deal make sure you use the promoe code Prime that helps us out but we have the prop bet analyzer that you have utilized all year long and that now that we’re in the playoff time I think a lot of people are focusing in on Michael Porter Jr against the Lakers was phenomenal he went over his player prop in every single game against the Lakers 19 22 20 27 26 in the closeout game against the Lakers jvt he’s 1 and three to the under so far three- one to the under I should say nine 21 in game two four and six we have seen Michael Porter Jr’s player prop at its peak against the Los Angeles Lakers in game five which he went over at 18 and a half it’s 13 and a half tonight he has been Irrelevant in this series and I remember I don’t know if it was the Western Conference finals last year I think it was the NBA Finals where I kept anticipating like you got to see something from Michael Porter Jr is tonight the night you love Gana going against the market and last night ultimately PJ Washington did finally his player prop uh his playeres his Player points cuz he had just defied the market is this a situation where Michael Porter Jr is this is the bottom point where you look to go over or is it just the series where Michael Porter Jr might ultimately be kind of a an ineffective starter for the Denver Nuggets I I don’t know if the answer I don’t know what the answer is to is it the day where he surpasses his point total but I will say if if I’m right in the strategy change for Minnesota he’s going to have the opportunity to go over that because if the ball’s going to get out of jokic’s hands it’s simple math if two guys are defending one that means that there’s four other guys who are matched up against three so there’s going to be open shot looks it could benefit Jamaal Murray it could benefit kabius cwell Pope it could benefit Michael Porter Jr and I think that’s maybe something worth looking at as well it’s it’s kind of the hard part about this which is if you know that a guy is going to maybe face something different like yic is what we’re talking about here then you just have to pinpoint easier said than done which of these players will benefit from that and Porter could do that especially on some of these swing passes right if you get a double team and you kick out and then you go Swing Swing and you find an open shooter um Michael Porter Junior might be that guy and so then he’s got to hit his shots on the road which is a whole another thing but I would say the very least I think we’re going to we’re going to see a night in which he has the opportunity to at least surpass his point total prop and put forth his best effort of the series well once again not to you know bring up a a a prop that didn’t hit but I thought your case last night for case Wallace was 100% accurate you just need the player to come through right he played more minutes he got the shot opportunities and it just ultimately didn’t fall so yeah Michael Porter Jr certainly is someone that I’m curious to look at from a player prop perspective but once again when you look at his three-pointers which is two and a half at DraftKings plus money to the over under in game three uh excuse me in game four had two threes under in game three zero on the road and uh he only went over one time so far actually he’s gone over twice in this series so if he gets the looks does he ultimately get home we will see so uh certainly something that I am contemplating maybe that ultimately makes the the Best Bets portion of the show here as for the spread so here at Circa jbt right now we’re sitting at 2 and a half in favor of the Minnesota Timberwolves we see some twos out there including showing you that on the screen there at DraftKings we’ve talked so often this postseason about the T you have to pay in the first half especially in those game threes where teams are down 02 now you got a unique situation obviously in this particular series because you had the Minnesota Timberwolves go on the road games one and two win both of those games nuggets on the road One games three and four knowing your backs are against the wall first quarter you’re looking at around a onepoint spread first half one and a half now technically that is a tax if you’re looking to bet the Minnesota Timberwolves and now we can get into the thought process of maybe you should just wait in game see how the game’s going to play out but knowing that this team has just lost three in a row do you look to attack them in the first half knowing that the nuggets at least in the beginning portion of this postseason had struggled out of the gates and they kind of got it going or are we at the point jbt where we’re thinking you know what this nuggets team may have figured it out they’re the champs for reason and this puppy is over I mean it seems like they figured something out right um these last few games have been absolutely incredible for him and this is like kind of what you’re referring to this is one of those things where in the postseason we have seen situation uh play out over um logic’s not the right term but just the actual number of what you’re looking at so you know it makes a lot of sense that Minnesota would come out extremely desperate very focused we’ve seen strong starts in these first quarters overall maybe not at the end of the first quarter do they lead but how many times have we seen in this series 15 to8 leads 18 to four leads like big leads for Minnesota in these first quarters we’ve seen that happen pretty frequently so I think it would make some sense that in a desperate spot going back home where some of your role players are going to be comfortable it looks like you might get my Conley back here today that’s something obviously worth mentioning here for Minnesota which is going to be pretty big it would make sense logically that they give they put forth a very good and desperate effort here in this first quarter so I don’t fault to anybody and like you said you are paying a tax for first quarter first half it’s not as immense when you’re talking about games that we were talking about with Indiana right where they were seven point favorites in game one Point favorites in in game well excuse me game three they were seven point favorites six point favorites for the first half that’s a massive tax talking about one and a half or one and a half in a game that’s sitting at like two and a half it is a tax but it’s not one that is the highest that we’ve seen we T it against the Denver Nuggets right game three the Lakers series they were what a three-point first half favorite onepoint first uh full game favorite and then when they lost that game the market went back to them being a three and a half Point Underdog in uh in game number four which by the way they ultimately won also on the ice tonight jbt the Carolina Hurricanes who have won two in a row they are a minus 155 favored against the New York Rangers will they be able to force a game seven Saturday at Madison Square Garden hurricanes have maybe just got the puck bouncing their way eager shurkin does he step up and then the Edmonton Canucks and the van excuse me Edmonton Oilers and the Vancouver Canucks they’re even at two games a piece that’s jonath the toal I’m Tim Murray we’re up and running on YouTube as well youtube.com/ veson live the comment sections are open Tim on there not me says Pats over Steelers under after seeing the schedule released we’ll get to some skele schedule man I am struggling schedule analysis there it is Best Bets bottom of the hour as well we’re fired up tonight it is vit prime time [Music] [Music] this is VN Prime Time with Tim Murray and Jonathan vonel on VN the sports Betty [Music] Network for a limited time only we’re offering our annual subscription at an unbeatable price normally priced to $240 you can now grab your subscription for just $1 $99 and if you use the promo code Prime we’re going to tack on an extra two months for free that’s 14 months of eent pro access for less than 50 cents a day did you know that the average American spends about $1,900 a year on coffee this is less than 50 cents a day how about that check that out right now sign up today use the promo code Prime you’ll gain access to our daily Best Bets and the leaderboard see which beast and experts doing well betting splits to show you the money and bets are movement for every game courtesy of DraftKings betting systems premium analysis and 24/7 video access visit von.com subscribe claim your 14 months of Von Pro for only 199 bucks with the promo code Prime VSS i.com subscribe that’s jbt I’m Tim Murray is that true 1900 did you just make that up no according to Google that is the truth for the average American maale see it pays to know somebody I didn’t pay for this coffee what that’s true that’s a fact I mean I see you got it from home uh no I went to a place and I used the old refillable and he he doesn’t charge me for it I charge me for my sandwich but 1,00 bucks a day or a year a year a day would be a lot of coffee that would be yeah that would be a lot of coffee well former Barista Jonathan Von toel you would know that’s right the prices of coffee I do uh are you a coffee guy uh I’m a caffeine guy in whatever way it comes so energy drink coffee I was going to make a joke but it’s probably inappropriate yeah let’s not do that joke I know which way you’re going there you ever drink jolt that soda that was like four times the caffeine no I never had that but the caffeine the caffeine gum uh back in the day was pretty good caffeine gum yeah huh didn’t taste the didn’t taste the best but yeah you you bite that that thing would get you going was that the wasn’t there oh I might be dating myself here there was some gum at Sports Authority was that that it was like an it was like a Gatorade gum is that one you’re talking about I don’t remember that this one was just like a it was like a green was like just a green gum that it might have been called jolt I don’t remember okay um get you going get you fired up um I’m looking at uh the only caffeine you can put on your Mike Mike chickening in he said he said Tim pound some more water actually it was the water that got me choked up in that first segment I was holding on I’m like go to the iso shot please two two things uh two things that are dangerous in broadcasting drinking while you’re on the air uh and peanuts during break those are very dangerous yes those little pieces get you peanuts I remember I was doing a sports update in Washington DC and you know the 60 90c tickers and I had an almond just stuck in the back of my throat and you’re in pretty much trouble there there’s there’s no getting out when you’re doing a sports update you’re doing it by yourself there’s no host on the other side so uh yeah eating eating nuts and uh drinking always uh always tricky especially when I have cough buttons we don’t have cough buttons a little uh inside baseball okay moving forward um we’ll get to best bet on tonight so I know which way your write up is headed von.com check that out kind of looking at some of the the pieces uh outside of nicolea yic to step up but what do you expect jvt at this point just from a side perspective I think ultimately you’re going to set this one out from a side perspective you have uh a position on both sides you got a hedge uh when they were down 02 on the Nuggets because of your position on the t-wolves what’s your just expectation on what to see tonight in Minnesota so I’ve been I I feel like I’m on obviously very shaky ground but I want to continue to believe that those two games that Minnesota played weren’t an aberration that they still have those somewhere right that they can kind of get to especially from an offensive standpoint and that’s for me that’s one of the big things you know we were texting texting with dug xerion who joined us from only players.com um you know I there’s a I think a reality in which Minnesota hand their offense much better doesn’t use Anthony Edwards to just kind of constantly dribble into double teams and not know what to do with the basketball you see I think you’ll see a little bit more freeer offensive performance from Minnesota and by extension Anthony Edwards he’s going to have to get going in a really big way back at home again you look at this you would expect some better shooting from your role players Mike connley back on the floor guys like Jaden McDaniels snaz Reed others who can really perform shoot the ball particularly well nil Alexander Walker being one of them had good stretch in that last game too so if you’re in the comfort of your own home you change things up defensively you get a better performance from your star player in Anthony Edwards I want to believe that Minnesota can win this game and and force a game seven and bring this back to Denver I think that this team is better than what it is shown in the last three games yeah I think I’m going to add something to my Best Bets uh regarding the start of this game so uh I think uh ultimately I’m a I I tend to agree with you uh on what what what to see from Minnesota I think you’re going to see you know that desperate spot even though Denver has proven that they are they seem to be uh clicking on all cylinders uh by the way before we move any forward uh we still have the PGA Championship going on right now uh your favorite at this moment is Xander Schley however Scotty sheffler is now down to plus 275 to win the PGA Championship Scotty sheffler if you missed it started the day with an eagle from I don’t know how far out to start the day and right now Scotty Sheffer sits at 4 under through 13 he’s T6 Xander chaé broke the course record today with a 62 at Valhalla shut a nine under 62 Tony F now where he be now he’s sitting at second with sah theala at six under Rory mroy uh got off to a bit of a he cuz he started on the back nine so he had a bogey on 17 but his front nine was tremendous he had four birdies there Rory mroy at five under and then Brooks Kea is four under he had an eagle on seven followed that with a birdie at eight so a good day for Brooks Kea as he is in the clubhouse at 67 uh but Scotty sheffler man that dude is just lurking out there three birdies an eagle and one bogey so far for Scotty Sheffer so we’ll keep tabs on where he sits as he wraps up his first round down there at Val Hall at the PGA Championship but Scotty shuffler is at plus 275 live right now uh to win the PGA yeah so this is I’m going to double check to see where we’re at right now and this is always dependent on what you like as a a better golfer or golf better whatever and who you believe in but if you like a metric site like datag golf.com for example data golf has Ander shle with a 36.5% chance of winning this thing that would equate to about a plus 174 price a little different than what we’re at here with the current market right now I think he’s floating around plus 275 plus 25050 at at tra Kings yeah so yeah then that’s the one spot that we’re looking at right now but again if you have faith in that their specific model it would tell you that there is some value in Xander shof plus 250 again that’s if you put weight into that so it’s pretty interesting to see how different people wait different things but at this point right now given the start sha obviously in the driver’s seat but interesting to see at least one uh respected model out there has him as a a pretty solid favorite to win this thing so early on do you ever mess with the frls first round leaders I feel like there’s some random I know people have systemand I know a lot of people like to I’ve never bet one I don’t think off the top of my head but it feels like Xander chaet is a pretty decent guy I know it’s easy to say now uh to uh to back cuz he was at the US Open or PGA last year where he shot a 63 I believe to start his round and then slowly faded off there but uh Xander chafl right now in the clubhouse is 62 today we’ll keep you updated on Scotty sheffler whose odds continue to drop by the way you know we mention always uh taking a look at in-game prices when it comes to you know basketball football how about the fact that you could have got Scotty sheffler at 6 to1 before he teed off today I mean his odds were as low as what 4 to one maybe no plus 350 at one point yeah and he got out to 6 to1 because of Xander Cha’s start before he even stepped foot on the course now once again you’re taking a risk you don’t know how he’s going to play but in game wagering baby yeah it’s uh Vin Prime Time brought to you by Zin and in-game wagering uh as uh we will keep our eyes on what Scotty Sheffer does here uh down the stretch and also von.com make sure you check them out uh check our website out as well Best Bets coming up at the bottom of the hour a lot of NFL discussion at 3:45 our time 6:45 Eastern and throughout the show but uh let’s just hit on two games on the ice tonight jbt uh We’ve uh been enjoying it Edmonton and Vancouver Vancouver uh catching as a home dog tonight plus 120 plus 126 at C am and then the New York Rangers will they be able to close out the Carolina Hurricanes won the first three games two of those coming in overtime and now after dropping backto Back Games hurricanes dominating game five coming up at the top of the hour the hurricanes are out to a minus 156 favorite which is a I would say a pretty sizable jump here for the Hurricanes yeah I want to start here and look I so I’m not a a hockey handicapper by any stretch so I don’t know how to quantify this at a moneyline price but I’ll say this how many times have I brought it up to you that you know you look at these even strength numbers Carolina’s been out playing New York a lot we’ve brought it up to Johnny we brought it up to a lot of our hockey guests and the market has kind of reflected that the market does like this Carolina team we know that beginning of the series Tim and now through the first four games the first three games when they were down three nothing all the even strength metrics pointed to Carolina out playing New York now all of a sudden You’ve Won these two straight games you’re back at home the Market’s jumping on that I feel like we’re getting a game seven I think that we’re finally seeing these even strength metrics finally play out as we should have at the early portion of this series I don’t know if it’s enough cuz falling into such a big hole like that can kill you but the numbers would tell you this team’s outplayed them and now you’re a big favorite at home to potentially force a game seven I would think they do game three Carolina was a minus 149 favorite so about a 7 Cent adjustment right now on game three to game 6 that’s jbt I’m Tim Murray Best Bets for tonight that’s next [Music] this is VN Prime Time with Tim Murray and Jonathan Von toel on VN the sports Betty Network there is a ton of great analysis up on the website of von.com around the NFL schedules Michael Lombard’s got a great piece on how tough these schedules can be and don’t worry even though it’s a short slate Major League Baseball we’ve got to of analysis there too major league baseball starting pitchers with big biggest Home Road variants from Steve mckinin and Best Bets from Josh jaab Adam Burke and Zachary Cohen in Major League Baseball as well as EPL Best Bets for the matches for this weekend from one Nigel cely all that more along with the betting tools at von.com check it out now and make sure to get your Von Pro sub 14 months less than $200 just with the promo code Prime he is human Scotty Sheffer bogey on four 14 what a bum as he is now 4 to one to win the PGA Championship he has dropped back from plus 275 it is a it’s a fun thing to do maybe just me as a nerd but watching the ing game numbers move when we’re talking you know basketball we you know we we discussed a couple nights ago when the Celtics went down 8 to2 against the Cavaliers and pre- flop went from 12 and a half down to 8 and A2 after just a minute of play watching the board for a a golf tournament in live is pretty fascinating to see Scotty Sheffer go from plus 275 down to 4 to1 and once again ingame betting you can really find yourself potentially getting a good number on uh on some of these golfers uh as uh as the tournament goes on I mean also if you if you’re picking these off right you can get good value on Benny nose as well yep which is a lot of fun yes that is uh true as well uh jbt Tim Murray uh this is V in prime time we’re going to work our way through some more interesting NFL scheduling situations jvt has been looking at uh especially some of the early weeks uh some of the rest advantages rest disadvantages could you be looking to bet by the way DraftKings has lines up for every single game uh a team I believe the San Francisco 49ers who have a massive rest disadvantage for the entire year I believe minus 22 play four different teams off of buys this year however at least at Jeff Kings right now jbt they are a favorite in all 17 games yeah not surprising um and we’ll have more on this tomorrow we’re going to do the market power ratings right for the NFL teams now that we have lines out and we could really look at these along with win total Futures so it’s not surprising that they’re going to be one of the higher power rided teams much like it’s not surprising that I believe it’s the New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers who are underdogs in each of their 17 games this season so not a ton of surprises there but it’s going to be interesting to see where the market deems where these teams are at in comparison with one another and their compatriots in their same spheres when it comes to winning a Super Bowl and their probability in doing so a couple people chiming in here on the uh on the chat Mike says Survivor picks looking like Chargers bills or Miami in week one we can uh we can do an early look at that uh obviously we’re waiting for the uh the full grid courtesy of Derek Stevens to uh to come and we can run through that exercise uh Paul B says that Brooks Kea top 10 looking fine to me good hit Paul B hopefully that is the way and uh KY on Twitter says uh he likes the under in the fever Liberty game o let’s do it okay 169 and a half I think that’s a good jump off point to Our Best Bets I see you using an own style I’m giving you the keys to the kingom putting our money where our mouth is I like to live dangerously it’s time for Best Bets come on Sherry it’s a lot all right here we go we got an NBA game tonight we got two games on the ice we’ve got WNBA jbt where you take it us Caitlyn Clark by the way ladies and gentlemen who went under in her first game as a pro 20 and a half hit 20 will she go under in her home open or where we headed well uh I don’t know what order why it wants me to go in so why you can tell me in my ear what is better for you um all right let’s go you want to go the oh the Mets Phillies all right let’s go baseball first to is Thursday we got a first five going so let’s talk a little first five action Mets Philly set to uh hit their first pitch in the next 6 minutes or so we’re going to go over in the first five 4 and a halfus 105 at the very least Market agrees with me over the first five is now favored at about as high as minus one t 20 in some spots uh good match up I think for an over first off Jose Katana Taiwan Walker canana Dreadful starts his last two times out Atlanta and Tampa Bay 7 to 2/3 combined 16 hits 12 earned runs struck out just five you know you look at that and go two sample size or two small sample size worth of data not that much but if you look at his statistical profile Katana does not rank really well 8 pertile in whiff rate 10th percentile in strikeout rate those are some of the worst numbers of his career he has walked nearly 10% of the hitters he’s fac to this point and 46% of the bad at balls he’s allowed are considered hard hit so putting guys on for free giving up a ton of hard contact not generating swings and misses I think that’s a pretty good recipe to get blasted against a Phillies lineup that is now among the best Major League Baseball fourth in both weighted runs created plus and woba for the season seventh in weighted runs created plus against lefties so that’ll help you out here so I think the Phillies be able to get to him on the flip side I’m not sure if I can trust Taiwan Walker enough to lay the Run line here as I usually do in these first fives and get me a win in these first five frames with the Philadelphia Phillies Walker 482 ra FIP just over five at 525 very elite command very good doesn’t walk a ton really the only positive though bunch of hard hit fly balls that are allowed uh doesn’t get guys to swing in Miss either so to kind of offset the worry that Walker won’t allow me to get this win by margin I had expected Phillies do have by the way Phillies second best team in terms of runs per first five I’ll go ahead and expect that we get an over here weather kind of works with me as well nothing crazy at all so give it to me first five over 4 and a half minus 105 for Phillies and Mets before you give out your next best bet I know many people are are wondering where do the Phillies stand for their record in the month of May well I’m glad you asked for those you riding with us jvt did the research and uh ultimately I was uh just there to say hey I like that one uh right now the Philadelphia Phillies on May 16th have the best record in the month of May at 11 and two the Yankees on their heels at 11 and3 and the Dodgers are at 10 and three so not much wiggle room but the uh but the Phillies in first uh in the month of May with an 11 and2 record yeah would appreciate the TNS maybe showing up in that Series against the New York Yankees not so much the case all right next up we’ll go NBA before WNBA let’s go Jamal Murray uh point total prop here we will go un or over oh Freudian slip we’re going under on the other one uh over on Jamaal Murray in terms of his points today so we talked about this a little bit the expectation that maybe you see a little something different from the Minnesota Timberwolves defensively that you’re going to send more doubles at Nik yic he’s shooting over 60% in the last three games he’s averaging over 30 points he has killed your defense no matter who is on him at this point right now so instead why not giving something a little bit more exotic get the ball out of his hands Force the role players on the road to beat you and I think that there’s going to be some good shot attempts here for Jamal Murray he has averaged about 16 points per game in the series he has gone over this point total prop just once it was a 23 24 Point showing believe it was game three but I think if there’s going to be more opportunities if we’re right about a change in defense for Minnesota that would mean more opportunities for Jamal Murray to go under a point total prop that is the lowest of this series so far Tim so Jamal Murray over you see the history here for his point total prop in recent uh games you see this in the postseason has really been great for him right four out of the last five and in fact if you zoom out even further eight out of the last 10 he has gone under so it hasn’t been as consistent that calf has been bothering him but just look at the point props General 24 and a half 24 and half 23 and 22 and half 20 and a half 21 and a half the lowest point total prop today of the postseason will go over for Jamal Murray tonight by the way looking over at John Ying uh tweeted out a couple things from B MGM the number one most bet player prop this evening courtesy of tickets Anthony Edwards over 29 a half points the number three most bet player prop at bet MGM Jamal Murray over 19 12 points and the number two player prop tonight at B MGM Jonathan Von toel Caitlyn Clark over 20 and a half points what say you let’s go back to the under we did it in game one we’re go back easy winner easy winner go under again for 20 and a half for Caitlyn Clark today against the New York Liberty by the way who’s our friend who had the under in this game cuz Market is very much in agreement with our friend up on YouTube this open 173 and a half for the total for fever and Liberty we’re down to 170 and some spots 169 a half actually so we’ve seen a four-point move on this game to the under ky’s sports betting under 169 A2 well Mark it’s in total agreement with you there because we opened at 173 and a half most spots but again look we got one here in the first game let’s just try it again under 20 and a half points for Caitlyn Clark in a game that we are seeing the market is betting under and by the way we got some physical play from the from the Connecticut son I was rewatching some of that Holy Smokes this lease coming at kit Clark hard so let’s expect some hard-nosed defense from a team that fancies itself a WNBA finals Contender champ or Champion Contender hey uh just a just a word of the wise don’t come at her too hard because uh that game uh the Connecticut Sun Indiana Fever game most watch WNBA games since 2001 yeah so uh you know you could be a player is all you want Diana terasi but you know most eyeballs your league has seen in 23 years and outdrew uh a hockey game on uh on Tuesday night all right quickly I’ll hit on my bet here uh we talked about it yesterday uh I played Rangers Panthers first period under one and a half we’ve seen the juice move considerably these game six things tighten up especially in this series it was a scoreless uh first period the other bet that I’ve added Timberwolves first quarter let’s go t-wolves come out ready to go so I don’t think this is a massive tax we’ve seen in different games this postseason where you’re paying an enormous tax for first quarter first half t- wolves minus a half Point minus 115 that’s playable here at Circa so let’s go t-wolves take that first quarter lead I do not trust them though to win this game outright that’s Jonathan Von too I’m Tim Murray rest Advantage disadvantage who’s working it out who’s working for it [Music] this is VN Prime Time with Tim Murray and Jonathan vonel on VN the sports Betty [Music] Network sound the trumpets it’s horse racing time so sadle up for action with DK horse at official DraftKings affiliate right now new customers who download the DK horse app can get a 100% deposit bonus up to $250 when you use promo code the sin horse all one word just deposit $25 or more and complete the playthrough requirement wag to run your favorite horses then watch the races live right in the app download the DK horse app now that’s Jonathan Von toel I’m Tim Murray quick look at the leaderboard at the PGA Championship still the same at the top Xander choffle at 9 under Tony feno and seah theala at six under tide for second Tom Kim just wrapped up his round round or actually he’s not finished yet he is on the 18th he is five under there and Scotty Sheffer is back to a 3 to one to win uh as he is sitting at four under through 15 after that bogey on 14 he birdied 15 so he’s four under through 15 three holes to play Scotty sheffler at four under currently tied for eth and if you’re wondering what the price is for Scotty Sheffer to finish I’m Wonder in the top 10 four to uh minus 400 so uh he is a significant favorite to finish in the top 10 NFL schedule came out yesterday jvt and you’ve been grinding at it tomorrow we’re going to do a little bit more digging as well I know Zachary Cohen uh found a couple fade spots that he liked you look at some of the back end of schedules how brutal it could be you look at some schedules and how it softens up like the Atlanta Falcons after week three all of that being said now that the schedule is here it is a time to really start to dive into the Futures market and our friends from Zin actually have a look at the coach of the year Market here you go this is your betting moment of Zin brought to you by Zin nicotine pouches find your moment of Zin at zen.com stormy Bon and Tony here at Vin the sports betting Network talking a little Coach of the Year in the NFL Jim Harbaugh is back in the league and already leading the way on the odds board at 8 to1 the Chargers new head man is turned around every team he’s coached in short order and oddsmakers expect that to be the case again in 2024 Bears head coach Matt Eber Flo is the second shortest shot at 9 to1 after landing two offensive studs in the top 10 of the draft number one pick Caleb Williams as well as wide receiver romad dun Chicago won five of their last eight games to end the season and are hoping the marked improvement on defense carries over to open the season Robert Salah and Deo Ryan who nearly won the award a year ago both sit 11 to1 this has been your daily betting Moment of Zen learn more about zin’s smokefree nicotine patches at zen.com warning this product contains nicotine nicotine is an addictive chemical Zin is intended for adult nicotine users over 21 years of age all right there it is your Moment of Zen that’s jbt I’m Tim Murray jvt looking at the early portion of the schedule it’s interesting uh that stormy mentioned Jim Harbaugh Matt Eber flu sitting there at 9 to1 the Bears Market we talked about it even last night the market seems to be reacting to what uh the expectations are of this Chicago Bears team but I might be in there too man I like this bears team yeah yeah oh baby looking at some win totals over looking division total division might be drinking the cool light here with the Chicago Bears I they their turnaround defensively last year was was real it was legitimate and if that’s going to just pick up where it left off defense is always hard to translate because of the new rules and defense is generally acquest to the offenses that they face more often than not having said that I do think that this is a defense that gives you a baseline of production that’s average to above average and I I mean how can you not like the skill position talent that the Chicago Bears have and I’m somebody who’s high on Caleb Williams you put all those things together I especially in an NFC that in the near like 7 to four range for those wild cards is wide open I really do enjoy my fancy myself a Chicago Bears fan will say finally so there’s so many angles that we’re going to attack over the next offseason like not next couple days throughout the offseason um and I know you have been looking at some early rest advantages so let’s look through week five some of the notable rest advantages and some of the notable spots and I know one of them in particular involves the New York Jets who I believe are setting a record with the most Prime Time games through week 11 they will have six Prime Time games through week 11 yeah so you Zach wrote about this a little bit when it came to some of the scheduling spots early on in the season and I went through and calculated some of the rest advantages so we could talk about those really quickly the rest Advantage spots you could potentially Circle when you look at the first five weeks of the regular season for example in week two we’ve got a couple of them Colts at Packers Packers going to have about a two-day rest advantage over the Indianapolis Colts Packers of course as we know are coming off at that Brazil game so that’s going to be something to factor in but they’re at the least from a rest standpoint going to have that edge Raiders Ravens that’s the obvious one right the Raiders are coming on the road to the Baltimore Ravens after opening of the Season against the Los Angeles Chargers so not only you’re talking about divisional game on the road then another road trip out east but Baltimore’s coming off of Thursday Night Football so they’re going to have quite the rest Advantage there over three with three days of Advantage same thing with the Chiefs Chiefs playing on Thursday taking on the Bengals they have quite the rest advantage and then Falcons and Eagles in week two Philadelphia’s got two days of an advantage there that’s late night that’s I believe Monday night that week they’re going to have that advantage over the Atlanta Falcons now what I wanted to point out and it’s actually not on this portion of the schedule and on the graphic so the Jets as you mentioned are a team that has a lot to do in the first couple of days and they’re not the only team having to deal with this we can put together graphic of all the teams and the stretches that they’re going to have to deal with it but if you go I know that this spot against uh the Titans in week 2 might be one of those let down spots especially after a week one Monday night game short week of rest to take on the Tennessee Titans maybe you perform well in that game we gets San Francisco 49ers so it’s going to be a market overreaction to a team that probably already has some public sentiment but Tim the week after they play Thursday Night Football so that’s going to be their third game in 10 days the New York Jets they play the ninth they play the next Sunday and then they play again on the 19th again they’re not the only team that goes through that but from an early season standpoint that’s one that not the T the Titans game to me I have the the Thursday night game circled that’s a lot to deal with over the course of three days two of which are going to be Prime Time games so they’re not necessarily at a rest disadvantage there but in the big picture it’s a brutal spot for the New York Jets but some some of the other early ones that we’re talking about rest advantages through week five when you’re looking at this through week three Dolphins at Seahawks Miami’s going to have a three-day rest advantage over the Seattle Seahawks Jags and Bills Buffalo is going to have a three-day advantage over the Jacksonville Jaguars in their matchup there Jets after that Thursday night game that I just mentioned will’ll have a three-day rest advantage over the Denver Broncos mercifully they finally have one Patriots are 49ers uh this is a week four Patriots have a three-day rest advantage over San Francisco and how about this little one too in week five New York Giants coming off of Thursday night the week prior will be taking on the Seattle Seahawks coming off of Monday Night the week prior so Giants will have a 4-day rest advantage over the Seattle Seahawks time to get ready for a team taking them on after a short week so some of the early ones to keep an eye on another one two things that jumped out to me regarding the schedule one positive one negative I’ll start with the negative we mentioned this last night and it was mentioned uh by a couple people on social media the Pittsburgh Steelers their schedule is the most difficult I believe based off of preseason win totals in the league after week 11 or after week 10 it is outrageously challenging for the Pittsburgh Steelers when you look at their schedule after week 11 it goes from the Washington commanders whose preseason win total 6 and a half home to the Ravens at the Browns at the Bengals home to the Browns at the Eagles at the Ravens home to the Chiefs by the way that’s short uh turnaround right you got a Saturday game into Christmas on a Wednesday close out against the Bengals you’re looking at win totals for all of those teams north of 8 and a half so the Pittsburgh Steelers every year people say Mike Tomlin he always figures it out good luck man that schedule is ridiculous to close out the year and as we just mentioned with the Jets if you look at that week 15 to week 17 stretch for the Pittsburgh Steelers for them that’s also one of those three games in 10day stretches Sunday Saturday Wednesday yes so the 15th the 21st and then ended up on Christmas against the Kansas City Chiefs so Chiefs game at home will be their third game in 10 days so another one of those to Circle as well Bengals have one of those situations near the end of the season to so look around at these schedules and find those out but those are going to be the ones you worth circling you don’t really get a ton of them but very much worth noting so we we knew all along what who the opponents were going to be but when you look at a team like the Atlanta Falcons and I know jbt you’ve been high on them their win total juice has moved a little bit is at minus 135 folks as of right now the Atlanta Falcons are a favorite in 14 of their 17 games and after week three they have the easiest schedule in the NFL by Leaps and Bounds start with the Steelers where they are short home favor against the Pittsburgh Steelers they’re an underdog at the Philadelphia Eagles in week two on Monday Night Football they’re an underdog at home against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football they’re plus three there the only other time as of right now that they are an underdog courtesy of DraftKings is week nine they are a one-point Underdog against the Dallas Cowboys the the Atlanta Falcons who are currently minus 130 to win the division and their over wonderers 9 and a half wins are a favorite in 14 of 17 games and a favorite in 13 of their final 14 games y week two and three they’ll be at a rest disadvantage but after that schedule really opens up for him in a big way buddy Kirk Cousins starts dancing around with those chains around his neck that’s jbt I’m Tim Murray it is Vin prime time [Music]
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