Steve Fezzik: Why You Should Bet the UNDER on THIS NFL TEAM

Steve Fezzik: Why You Should Bet the UNDER on THIS NFL TEAM

they have to play eight straight Super Bowl contenders to end the Year this is the dumbest line ever so I’m like I’m having a Gordon gecko moment from Wall Street like last night like I have this Epiphany so I’m sending out the notes to my to some of my friends my movers and I’m like Gordon gecko I’m like start buying up Steelers under eight and a half minus 120 use the offshores and keep it quiet the numbers told the story they always down one of those idiots who believe in analytics this is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gone Beast how you doing Fez um I I love the legal discussions that occur I would next time you have the lawyer guy on yeah I want you to ask that Alabama coach that famously texted his friend hey our star pitcher is not pitching you know get G get down against us yeah it how is that not illegal like you I mean got fired but you haven’t heard anything I don’t know if there’s a crime being committed I bet I bet it will be illegal within a few years right that is a great point it’s a great question Crossing and is it different if it’s crossing state lines or not crossing state lines that that’s that’s how they always get you with that racketeer and you go in The Slammer yeah there was there was a guy in my high school this is a true story he ended up on America’s Most Wanted true story he ended up he tried to kill his Dad tried to kill his dad for insurance money he ended up on America’s Most Wanted you know what his real crime was he he he crossed the Maryland DC border like that’s what made it into a federal offense if he stayed in one state it would be oh that’s fine you’re just in Maryland it’s good small fine yeah small fine small fine yeah everybody answer dad down out again yeah by the way 30 years at a white color prison is what ended up happening um okay I have to ask you so several questions CU we talked about you yesterday on the show because you’re kind enough to give us the plays that you made week one of the NFL by the way $80 fine for past posting some of those times five is the five five multiple counts hey after we got done with tennis you know I felt like they had to hook me up with an IV so I’m just happy to be alive after Gilly and I like Gilly made me play a second full uh set against him and crushed me I was I was worried about Steve’s Health at one point there I was like are you going to be okay Steve he could talk big he he was worried about you the other day K he was uh you were hitting shots I don’t think he was he wasn’t expecting he you were throwing the old change up when he thought a fast ball was coming he couldn’t couldn’t keep up with it I am like in Major League I that pitcher that has like the Vaseline up his sleeve and stuff I’ll I’ll put Vaseline on on a ball if I need that point really really bad whatever it takes but yeah the little dunk shot down the line with the forehand when Gil and I play it’s it’s fascinating because there’s there are a lot of winners when we’re playing and that’s why wishnev is ducking both of us back in Pittsburgh I want you wishnev you can you can hide but we’re here so anyway about the football I don’t I got to wishnev um but he is ducking us um so you also I also shared a more macro statement that you you a philosophy you had about week one lines um having to do with totals not just week one but you believe in betting and under betting unders Now versus betting overs now later betting overs explain that to us yeah so so bottom line is last year the scoring average was about 44 all right now famously weeks one and two are lower scoring by about H point point and a half and so if you look at the cumulative average if you look at these totals it’s like they just there are no totals in the 30s and there were totals that opened you know in the low 50s so you do the average and like they across the board look to be a little bit too high now someone will say you know there’s kickoff change rule kickoff rules yeah and so for those who’ve been under Rock and don’t know so it’s kind of like the spring football rules used to be where both teams going to line up on the receiving team side of the ball you know 10 yards away they’re going to kick the ball no one can move can move no one can move until the ball is received he Kick It In The End Zone you get in the 30 now so what’s going to happen if if you’re a left footed kicker that can kick a cork screw Line Drive kickoff that like spinning uncontrollably and land it right around the five you have yourself a job kicking off in the NFL now but I think the average starting point would be like the 28 so I do think scoring is going to go go up a little but across the board look to play unders right now weeks one and two and I think selectively they’re will be value like Miami Jacksonville is at 49 and a half some spots I I like that under that was first thing that jumped out to me too as we were just go week when those lines came down you mentioned this well like you you’re looking at sides you’re looking at sides and then you like I don’t bet a ton of to total Steve you just think back to what we went through last season like like you’re talking about so many totals in the 30s and you’re just like what am I looking at here overall it like you said it just all felt a little bit too high to me uh at first glance possible rookie quarterbacks you know be um game management you know be careful and also like on a hot sweltering day in college football I don’t really know why in college football the defense gets gassed and I think it’s because the offensive linemen in college aren’t as big in the NFL and the NFL they’re like dinosaurs brontosaur and they just can’t they can’t move it’s like me after we get done in tennis they’re moving so slow they’re going into the shade and it’s like all right we cannot run a hurry up with these guys they’re done it’s let me just ask you a broader question though so people know you from this show they know you from sharp money they know you from General Media that you do what part of your and they know you to be a successful better what part of your I don’t know if this is the right way to ask it of your of the way that you approach sports betting because most people are like am I most the average Sports better is listening to this and they’re going wow this dude is making week one bets in May you don’t blink at that you see an opportunity you see an edge you play it you’re okay to wait that long the average better doesn’t do that would you say to the average better that you ought to do that or is that just unrealistic because the average person’s life that’s not the way their Bing brain works this is going to be dangerous so the average better has a small betting bankroll so they can’t tie up their money right all right however they probably also have money invested quite a few people and they’ve got maybe money in a bond fund well that Bond fund’s going to earn what 6% over the course of a year so think about that as opposed to being able to put it into a future and have a higher or or week one bet that you only Ty up your money for four months that has a 6% return on investment so ex example Detroit’s playing the Rams you can lay Detroit minus 3 lay a15 that bet will not be there in a couple days it’s like it cannot be there the Rams are like average or just barely above average and Detroit is a contender in Detroit is home it’s like everyone knows Detroit is has value there except for you know the books that are hanging that number and then the question is well Steve fic how come you haven’t bet $50,000 on Detroit it’s it’s much more difficult to get down even in the NFL there’s this this perception oh you can spend $100,000 I’ll take whatever you want nothing could be further from the truth it’s it’s it’s gotten to be very difficult to bet anything sub substantial even in the NFL on like on early lines and the like and you would argue I guess the extension of this is you would argue that that is a more sound bet therefore to get a you will have the best of it more often than not doing it this way in football that that’s a that’s a more sound wager than anything you could do in the stock market for instance well than I could do now someone who who’s really adapted and investing in the stock markets like probably laughing like oh bitcoin’s going going down today right and I and I know because of this Factor but I’m unaware of those factors so for me it’s what I’m best at so absolutely I also think Bitcoin is a specific thing right so I don’t know that that’s a you know a fair com I I think that’s overall though like that’s a conversation with like I have with friends right who are betters who are who are always giving me stock you know stock market advice and stuff like well this is where I’m more comfortable at that’s where you’re more comfortable have you actually tracked this have you gone back and seen okay me doing this months in advance get what I perceive will be the best of it have you gone back and actually graded these no because and here’s why here here’s why I I I I literally never I I literally never lose okay betting season wins in the like and and I go back to there’s a guy who runs around town David Kaufman he’s like 105 okay and he’s got this big computer bag he doesn’t own a computer he just he’s and he’s got sheets everywhere stuffed around and and all he does he walks they’re idiots you know I got Green Bay over 9 and a half and under under 10 plus a do five and he’s got all these middles that are constantly like profitable middles that you you have to have the edge in like in baseball uh like the Washington Nationals you can get over 66 and under 69 at the same time at two different books and it’s like you are not going to lose with portfolios like that and I’d be more I’d be more than happy someone’s like ah Fe he’s just blowing up smoke you know it’s like hey you can ask Jeff Benson he’ll be more than hell happy to say Steve’s doing just fine despite donking off 40 Grand famously on Purdue we just talked about a UFL game right where we just saw yeah we’re watching a game this we had like one and a half Point difference through a I guess was a key number two and a half and a four let me just ask you this I just need a 5-second answer to this what what is more enjoyable for you winning money or calling people Dumbo what’s oh Dumbo okay that’s what I want just curious Jim deit I’m very surprised PGA tney uh PGA attys do not provide drivers for the players when on keas G the old Miami open provided cars and drivers for all tennis players regardless of ranking and you might remember Gil what a traffic CF that was oh yes I do but what a tournament in keep game I I don’t know how each of the individual golf tournaments work cuz they usually get the courtesy cars that they all drive but I I don’t I guess I would assume there’s a driver option but I mean could you imagine Novak jokovic rolling up driving into a tournament like that yeah it is odd Jimmy Lopez I can never decide what’s a better story The High School acquaintance attempted murder story or the Mike bar uh what was his name Mike bar yumore Massacre the Y it’s the Yum kapir Massacre the yapor massacre is the greatest gambling story ever told the Todd w n story uh Todd wedge uh excuse me Doug wedge pardon me Doug uh our buddy Doug wedge Georgia 25 to1 lfg books need to get it together not only posting College Baseball odds in a timely manner but also with live betting much like Field of Dreams if you build it or post it they will come um and on and on with the tweets we always appreciate it uh first of all we just did the uh the promo for the pness do you ever bet these Triple Crown races I never hear he you talking about betting these horses I’m I’m a follower so I’m a horse matchup guy so famously I don’t like making a bet imagine like oh I’m going to bet Detroit against the rims and then the book will tell me what I’m going to lay right right after the game started my brain can’t handle it either it’s when we they used to have the they still have the Derby uh you know the ballrooms at the south point and I remember wish for whatever reason certain comments land on you and I remember wishnev was whatever horse we were betting he’s like oh how much are we going to win I go we don’t know yet he goes oh I forgot about that blank right so the so famously so the matchups are the way to go you you lock in a match up example Kentucky Derby you got one mutter you got one non- mutter they’re up against each other the weather changes and if it goes bad you bet on the mutter in a matchup things like that mutter’s a mutter uh Scotty sheffler by the way uh has just updating his round through five after all the mugas from this morning birdie bogey birdie par par so he is one under through five today five under for the tournament four shots behind the first round leader Andra Schley who is about to te off whoever sheffer’s lawyer is who wrote that narrative that that that he put out that guy should be hired by everyone because that was the greatest statement Scotty Sheffer agre compl ever agree completely Beyond classy yes it’s not about me someone died here let’s focus on that and only that it was beautiful was and correct by the way and and Pitch Perfect perfect on that um okay you wanted to let’s go back to football for a second Kelly and I sat here like everybody did react to the NFL schedule release we knew what the opponents were going to be for every every team we just didn’t know the sequencing of it and so we sort of broke down the five easiest schedules based on season win totals and then of course we did the same for the hardest and the hardest of them all came down to this amazing Gauntlet that the Pittsburg Steelers are going to have to go through uh their final eight games of the season by the way it’s it doesn’t start out that easy for Pittsburgh either they start out at Atlanta at Denver and elevation and then the Chargers but their final eight games this is legendary at least on paper Home Baltimore at Cleveland at Cincinnati home Cleveland at Philly at Baltimore Home Kansas City Home Cincinnati you couldn’t make it up worse and so this of course then brings to mind the whole Mike Tomlin thing which we joke about for all these years like oh my God I didn’t hear this stat uh that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season ever what well if he is if he is going to keep that streak alive my God is that going to be a feat cuz I’m just going to sit here and say right now and may Kelly that streak is over Steve G Steve’s going to talk me into it man I tried to swear off betting against the Miami Heat or Pittsburgh Steelers win totals and now after that diet Drive I give it to Steve fzk so I I have a mental flashback to the movie Gauntlet and it’s like like Clint Eastwood and Mike tomin are like driving this big city bus like that’s been like I got this metal like reinforcements in the entire you know PD of of Dallas is shooting at them to keep them to to to get from nine wins that’s what’s going to happen in these last eight games as Pittsburgh runs the gauntlet but here’s a classic example the Pittsburgh season win number opens eight yes and obviously that’s a mistake because I don’t know if you guys are aware what tomwin has never had a losing season so obviously he can have a losing season we can still push he goes 8 n so we’re going to bet eight so the market makes sense and they bet it up to to eight and a half okay and now we’ve had um a Timber moment where the tree is starting to fall in the forest and people are like but wait a minute I even though we’ve got these 17 years or whatever it is of um of History Pittsburgh’s pretty much average team and they play not only the most they don’t play difficult schedule they play the most difficult schedule in the NFL the Bengals famously finished last they don’t even get you know fourth place opponents right um and they have to play eight straight Super Bowl contenders to end the Year this is the dumbest line ever so I’m like I’m having a Gordon gecko moment from Wall Street like last night like I have this Epiphany so I’m sending out the notes to my to some of my friends my movers and I’m like Gordon gecko I’m like start buying up Steelers under eight and a half minus 120 use the offshores and keep it quiet it’s great so we grabbed a bunch of Pittsburgh under quiet yeah it’s it’s brutality their schedule like it’s it’s brutal eight St great Super Bowl contenders people are saying Tomlin can win coach of the year if he wins nine games well guess what you only win coach of the year if you get a herculine above expectation effort and given that’s only half game better I I really think you know and I was actually thinking this is the this is the opposite of Drew denzik who like I respect like with his alternative win totals and like the high variant yes there is no way Pittsburgh can win 10 games this year it’s like I almost like I want to play Under N9 and a half and like lay you know minus 220 because maybe like famously maybe he somehow keeps the streak alive and he gets the nine but we rarely talk about those you know from that side of it of laying oh yeah we we all what we were referring to is Drew Drew was probably articulated it better than anybody is that probably the best betting vehicle pre- flop in the NFL historically is alternate season win totals but as Kelly was alluding to what we were generally referring to were the plus money ones um especially these rookie quarterback we don’t know how they’re going to be so famously like look last year like Houston versus Carolina right you know they’re so far away from expectation because one team picked a good quarterback and the other didn’t and all you need to do is look at a a final NFL standings and ju depose it against pre-f flop season wins and you’ll see how many teams fall outside of the standard deviation where these these will cash but what you’re saying is that the Steelers example is so Stark that the notion of the plus money ones that don’t even bother that would lay money because it’s so ridiculous for them yes absolutely and by the way the reason the models I think fail is that they they they they we have the spreads on every game you can convert those to money lines and compute the expectations with the standard deviation but the flaw is that it doesn’t take take into account injuries and changes in the team’s makeup such that it is unrealistic to think like if you tell me for the Jets for instance all right if you tell me the Jets are going to start the season two and three they’re donezo the Jets are going to win six or seven games because they have an easy start to schedle easy start so so by definition if they if they have some losses early on it could be a bumpy row Jets could win six games this year um I there’s no other sport like this right like the fact that we can get so wrapped up in May for a football season as we’re talking about it that that September through January football feeling starts to get into you and this opportunity so like the Chargers open two and a half against the Raiders so and and I got a small piece of that I laid some three so think about this if the Chargers win by exactly three and I know it opened two and a half it’s going to close four all right against the Raiders if they win by three and I don’t win a lot of money I’m like what am I doing it’s like whenever a game like that with an obvious line with the Bengals the Bengals open seven they’re going to close couple digits it’s like you got to have gotten a piece of the Bengals already or else you’re just betting too much on the WNBA by the way I don’t think the fever are going to have a good year this do you see that Range man n and a half already on that Bal side of places by the way just a follow up on the Caitlyn Clark Story the Caitlyn Clark Story from still good ticket prices are dropping in these in these 14,000 seat Arenas the country lost they lost the the fever lost by 36 last night Caitlyn Clark 9 s and six she was two of eight from the field first time she didn’t get double digits since she had eight points against Northwestern in 2021 January of 21 real quick 30 seconds Survivor uh the notion of Christmas day has two days it’s a Wednesday there’s two NFL games there’s a there’s a game the day after if the Circa Survivor for if the circum management decides that it’s only the two games on Christmas as a standalone week would you even play Survivor oh of course because even if you play a bad poker tournament with a bad structure there’s so much dead money that you I mean you so your Edge decreases you still have an edge and you know there they don’t rake anything so you just have to be an average player you know to go ahead and play but Ciro will include that game I’m very confident I’m confident they will too

Steve Fezzik joined the hosts of ‘A Numbers Game,’ to share his reactions to the 2024 NFL schedule release, providing his betting picks and expert insight!

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