The Lombardi Line – 05-19-24
welcome back it is hour number two of the Lombardi line here on the Draft Kings Network family of B Michael Lombardi out in the great state of New Jersey we had a fun first hour we got a fun second hour on deck for you guys 30 minutes from now our vent senior NBA analyst Jonathan Von toel will join us to break down the NBA Playoffs we got not one but two game sevens in the NBA we got the Pacers and the Knicks and then the t-wolves and the Nuggets to wrap things up and we will be then set for the Conference Finals to begin next week then 45 minutes from now we got a major championship going on so our very own West Reynolds host of vison tonight and the long shots podcast will join us to give us some thoughts and some predictions on what he thinks will happen in the final I know Wes is sweating out a Bryson D Shambo ticket at 28 to1 is he confident that Bryson can get into the winner circle it’s been a while for Bryson at a major he won the US Open in 2020 I believe it was and hasn’t done anything much since but uh we’ll see if Bryson D shamble can get there for West Reynolds at the PGA Championship but Michael will’ll begin with the NBA game Sev Pacers Knicks tip off 3:30 Eastern 12:30 Pacific Time right now the Knicks three and a half Point favorites total 208 uh just from a overall standpoint here the injuries are the big thing that’s going to shake up this Market the status of OG and anobi the status of Josh Hart we’ll have to wait for that as we get closer to tip off time but regardless what happens and who’s on the floor how do you see this sort of playing out with the Knicks having that great home court advantage at Madison Square Garden well I don’t think you can ignore the injury and especially the Josh one who’s so dominant on the glass he plays so well rebounds you know and that adominal strain you saw that really affected him in Indiana on Friday night and so you know they’re going to give it a go in pregame they’re not haven’t been ruled out Johnny aello on earlier in the last hour didn’t think the line would move to four that he did not give any indication that the line would move back getting a lot of Nick money which makes sense because they’re playing in the garden and the garden has been foolproof right they have been able to to energize their team their defense off of the crowd in the garden and Indiana has yet to match that Indiana played differently in game six than I’ve seen them play the entire series they were physical they were really trying to work the glass they were getting after it and to me it was a completely different Indiana team that that I was accustomed to seeing especially when you look at what they were what they were doing in terms of rebounding and their second effort points and all that so you know they they ended up with 47 they outrebounded the next 47 to35 in that game which is not something they typically do so you got to believe that if they can continue that and and we heard Carlile after game five before game six when they were facing elimination say that you know his team didn’t play to the level of intensity that he wanted and I think he got that message loud and clear to his team Friday night in Indiana so look they played well they really did and I think ultimately you you know this is going to come down to what Indiana team do we see we know the Knicks are fairly consistent but if this Indiana team is as aggressive and as physical as they were in game six with the Knicks being as wounded you have to almost think about taking the points yeah you have to think that the Indiana Pacers are going to try to push the pace as much as possible uh that’s how they play they play Fast typically but now with the Knicks with adding Josh Hart to on top of it with all these injuries and even if an anobi plays he’s clearly going to be compromised dealing with a hamstring injury which if he plays I I don’t think it’s 100% that he makes it through the entire game those soft tissue injuries guys tend to reag gravate those if they come back a little bit too soon uh than they were supposed to so I think even IFL though Fe he you gota you know one thing about the NFL you can probably get away with it if you’re Al lineman or something but you have to extend yourself and and your stra and your stride has to be full you can’t hold back on that and you’ve got to be really well hydrated in terms of not reinjuring it this is a alleng and I don’t think they’ll let him go out there if they think he’s going to pull it especially considering that if they win they have to play the Celtics look you know what’s interesting about Indiana is McConnell comes off the bench right nobody thinks TJ McConnell’s much of a scorer right you know they don’t think you know he plays 16 minutes he launches 13 shots he’s seven for 13 whereas halberton in the last game played 32 minutes he only shot the ball 12 times so when the second unit comes on the court with McConnell they become more aggressive and he really drives through there and you know and he scores 15 points of course he wasn’t good enough for the 76ers God knows we have way better we had Ben Simmons in his wardrobe we know that just like Isaiah Joe was a good we just cut him so he can go start for the Thunder but that doesn’t bother me at all because we understand what we’re doing in Philly that’s all good anyway so you know I’m not bitter Fe please but I think to me never no I enjoy it and so like to me when they play with that aggressiveness and if they get halberton to play with the McConnell I mean they’re hard they’re good they have depth you know and the same thing with Miles Turner when Miles Turner is playing at that level where he’s really aggressive you know he’s going to the rim he takes 10 shots he’s rebounding gets eight rebounds I mean it was a collective effort to get the 47 rebounds and they had 14 on the offensive glass you know and they matched the Knicks the Knicks had 13 I’m actually seeing the first four pop up in the market so the Knicks over at the South Point have gone to four-point favorites so maybe maybe there’s some bullishness on anobi or somebody coming back no I think I think that that kind of tells us maybe he’s going to play somebody knows something right I mean that number I know the Knicks are betting and and and it makes all the sense in the world to bet the Knicks because of the way they play at home and their energy level and their mental toughness right you know they are physically mentally tough and they’ll and they shoot the ball much better at home dant chenzo is going to be the key again as I said in the first hour I mean you know last game he was 6 for 14 but he was three for eight from the three-point line he had 17 points but he was minus 17 in the game he’s the key especially considering if Hart who was can’t really go Hart was two for8 really didn’t shoot well I mean Brunson was 11 for 26 they made Brunson work they really made him work yeah he’s had a couple of those games where it’s like it’s not maybe not the most efficient but I think we’ll get a good Jaylen Brunson because he’s a big time player and it seems like he rises to the occasion at Madison Square Garden as well there right now it’s 209 the total three and a half uh right now is the consensus number here for the side but a four has popped up over at the south point so as we always say shop around if you like either side there in the other game t-wolves and the Nuggets Denver right now A five-point favor this one I feel like there’s influential money on both sides cuz it opened five it got down to four and a half now it’s then got back to five and now we’re going back down to four and a half as well at some spots where I’m sitting here at circuit it’s four and a half so there’s some Push Pull going on for game seven tonight in the Rocky Mountains yeah I mean this one to me is a hard one to handicap because I I in game in game five said look Denver’s offense was too much for a great Minnesota defense shot 52% so in game six I felt like okay we’ll get back to normal C excuse me in game five we’ll get back to normal C and they’ll play better defense even though they’re in Denver and they didn’t Denver shot like 56% from the field so games four and five we saw the Timberwolves defense get worse game six we saw the Timberwolves defense rally and the adjustments that were made by the coaching staff of the Timberwolves who so we understand this they have have two assistant coaches who work for Malone I mean remember Tim Conley’s the general manager who came from Denver to Minnesota so that staff has a lot of Malone influence and so they a know the players they know the system they know the scheme all those things I I just think to me you know we don’t know Murray’s injury right and you got to believe donic is I mean excuse me uh Nico is still the best player I mean on the court joic is still by far the best player on the court but can they contain the other players right they couldn’t contain Gordon he was what 12 for 13 in game four didn’t miss a shot they shot so well and then the next game he shot as well as before that to me is is the hard handicap and when Conley’s on the court we know Minnesota’s a better team you know my instincts want to play Minnesota because they’re young they’re energetic but I can’t go against the heart of a champion yeah I think in both of these games I’m I’m going with the home team to win them like I have that nuggets bet that I made the series pricee after game one I probably should have waited for after game two to get even better number but you know you can’t really predict everything that’s going to happen in the sequence of of it all but I I have a nuggets bet from from earlier last week that I’m going to write out and that’ll be my bet for this game but even if I didn’t have that bet I would try to play Denver in some way whether it’s on the money line or or laying the points if you can find something four and a half or so I think Denver is going to win this game you have the home court advantage you have the best player in the world you have a really good coach at Mike Malone like the t-wolves are they’re an incredible team and they’re a really good team that’s matches up well with Denver but I just would trust Denver more in this spot this is the biggest game these Minnesota timberwol players are going to play in their careers yeah I mean it’s common sense right I mean the home team you know we know the altitud is not a factor they’ve already won two games there but to win three games on the opponent’s Court especially a world champions Court that’s a hard one we’ve seen no indication that the Pacers can play at a high level on the Knicks court especially that physicality the second pass you know we didn’t mention this but you know hartenstein kind of disappeared they did a good job of keeping him off the glass in the last game in game six on Friday night he’s got to play Big right that I mean this game is all about like Pat Riley would often say no rebounds no rings and so you got to get the rebounds and the Pacers were determined to win that and and we know that Carlile was all about that we know after game six after game five in the garden he was really disappointed with his team’s effort and they came back and responded to his coaching yeah composure matters a lot in these in these game sevens and we haven’t seen the composure from the Pacers at Madison Square Garden like and the Knicks have been able to take advantage of that uh with their tough-mindedness and just like being able to out hustle the Indiana Pacers now can they do that with banged up guys like Josh Hart with the abdominal strain we’ll find out later this afternoon but I have faith that the New York Knicks will go ahead and get this done I’m sorry Elliott your Indiana Pacers I think are going to are going to get bounced out of here uh real quick with a minute left here before we get to the win totals the easiest schedules on the other side the hardest schedules Baltimore Ravens they’re sitting at 11 a half the overs plus 115 under- 13 too high too low just right for the Baltimore Ravens win total this year I I I think it’s a little too high they’re going through a bunch changes again Zack goris never coordinated a defense you know now they got Lamar get that but you know are they going to they got a lot of they’re counting on a lot of good young players they do a great job in Player Development but to me I I think it’s going to be a little bit of a harder challenge Lamar’s good Lamar’s the MVP of the league twice even though some people thought he could be a wide receiver coming out in the draft good luck with that you know and so I I think there’s no doubt that there you know but I worry about defensively losing McDonald is not an easy thing we saw that in Philadelphia you know Eagle fans were complaining about Ganon and all of a sudden when the replacement they weren’t as sure about that replacement both cordinators in Philly losing both of them hurt yeah it got worse after Jonathan Ganon despite what Eagle fans were saying about him uh in the year they actually win all the way to the Super Bowl all right we’ll discuss the easiest schedules coming up are those two high too low just right win total breakdown in the NFL next year on the Lombardi [Music] line Vin is thrilled to introduce a new vn.com tailor made to the evolved needs of today’s sports betters our upgraded navigation streamlines your journey allowing you to swiftly access articles videos and podcasts whether you’re tuning in Live or catching up on your favorite shows everything is just a click away bn.com guarantees a fluid and responsive experience across all devices ensuring you stay connected wherever you are we have enhanced tools such as our betting splits and expert picks and introduced Innovative features like parlay and odds calculators all designed to 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Lombardi line here on the DraftKings Network family of bay Michael Lombardi out in the great state of New Jersey let’s continue our NFL win total discussion here with the hard sorry the easiest schedule we did the hardest schedules in hour number one let’s get to the easiest schedules now here in hour number two and according to the average win totals the top five easiest schedules you have the New Orleans Saints the New York Jets the Chicago Bears the Los Angeles Chargers and the easiest schedule in the NFL this year the Atlanta Falcons Michael do we sometime you already chuckle you’re Super Bowl winning Atlanta Falcons uh when you do we sometimes over include that you need that that’s that that needs to be included in every time you say the the Super Bowl because look when you have the Brilliance to find three coaches better than Bill Bell Che you’re on a different level than everybody else so let’s be clear it’s it’s it’s those are real things that they said that’s not just madeup stories uh that that’s the one thing that drives me absolutely insane is they actually put that in an article that they find three coaches better than the better than the second winningest coach in the history of the NFL but they found three out there in America that were better that that that’s remarkable so now they have an easy schedule so everybody’s going to bet the over toal like Johnny avela tells us I mean look here’s the reality of Atlanta are we sure they’re good on defense are we sure they can’t rush the passer every great team that gets to the playoffs has the ability to create turnovers now you say to me back FEI they have Raheem Mars and he’ll coach the defense at a higher level than Nelson did last year who’s now in Jacksonville I say I like Raheem I think Raheem deserves a second chance as a head coach no question however he can’t create pressure when there isn’t players to create pressure right last year when you watched the Rams play what he was so able to do was to get Donald on a one-on-one and to rush five and to put pressure in those two young defensive tackles he had inside was able to create that who’s doing that for Atlanta Grady Jared coming off an ACL tear you know and so like where are their dominant defensive linemen I mean when you’ve ignored the the defensive draft in the first round for as long as Super Bowl winning GM Terry fno has done you’re going to you’re going to pay a price for that I mean you it’s great you have all these weapons oh boy you got Drake London he’s not even a number one receiver but you got him Kyle Pitts the fifth pick overall in the draft you know you got all these great weapons you can’t score points oh because we didn’t have a quarterback okay I got that but I think to me we are over evaluating their defense and I think that L lends itself yet can do you really believe they’re going to walk into New Orleans and play well against New Orleans do you believe they’re going to go down to Tampa and play well against Tampa I I I mean I think they’re hard games for them so I the reason they have this easy schedule is because the south in the NFC isn’t very good and so people mistaken that for Atlanta being a good team I don’t yeah I I think it’s really a good takeaway because like the south is not good which also includes Atlanta like like they’re a part of that as well which is why that doesn’t mean we should overrate because we did this dance with New Orleans last year when they had the nine and a half win total and I think it ended up closing at nine and they ended up winning about what was it seven seven- 10 or eight and N the New Orleans Saints a season ago if you’re not a good team if you’re not a well coach team which I think is the biggest takeaway for me when we did the hardest schedules in the first hour was you emphasizing coaching mattering so much when it comes to these win totals and when I look at these top five easiest ones I see four question marks at head coach rahee Morris who I think is a question mark maybe he’s a really good head coach and becomes one but it’s still a question mark we’re not certain Dennis Allen you know how I feel about him Robert Salah we know how we feel about Robert Salah Matt Eber Flo I think that’s a big question mark as well and then there’s Jim Harbaugh who we know is a proven winner everywhere he’s goes so to me the team that you should probably f focus on whether it’s too high too low just right I think it’s too low for the Los Angeles Chargers at 8 and a half Michael like this is a proven winner at head coach that has a Bonafide quarterback and you’re sitting here telling me the win total is eight and a half I know they don’t have receivers or whatever and they gave up Keenan Allen they gave up Mike Williams but I’m going to bet on the coach and the quarterback in this instance and that’s Harbaugh and Justin Herbert and the mental toughness of the team he’s going to instill that into them right they’re going to be mentally tough they’re going to be fundamentally sound which nobody wants to talk about but that’s the key to success in football is who’s fundamentally sound and who can execute at critical points in the game because they have the mental toughness and who’s not going to make dumb decisions in the game that cost their team points and cost their team a chance to win I.E Bren Brendan Staley has often done that so to me I think you have to be really objective about it I think Harbaugh every team he’s gone to he’s improved them immediately yep past performance predicts future achievements so we know that you know look look I I think the Jets are interesting in the sense that they good on defense now what’s really fascinating when you watch the Jets last year Franklin Myers was really a good player and so was BR Bryce Hall they let both those guys go I’m not sure they replaced them with good players with as good a players Mosley is as good a defense as a linebacker is makes it very challenging to throw the ball they play more manto man than they have in the past I mean so they’re they’re a challenge to move the football on because of that and if they can protect the ball and not turn it over and get rid of it one of the things Rogers will give them will be the ability for the make the offensive line look better and we know they have issues there right Tyron Smith can he play all the games we don’t know Morgan Moses can he play all the games we don’t know but they’ll be better just because Rogers will get rid of the football and if they don’t turn it over but the issue comes back down to Salah can they play can they play complimentary football I mean they’ve won 33 he’s lost 33 games in his career as a head coach and if they would have protected the ball and played complimentary football and not turned it over on offense they would have been improved they could have been a lot better cu the defense is good enough to win games that’s why when when Rogers went out last year I was like this doesn’t this hurts the the Jets no question yeah I kept saying to you on the PO and on our shows like look they can still win like as long if they don’t turn this thing over they got a great running back if they don’t turn this thing over and protect the quarterback but then again now it lended itself back into the Nathaniel hackins element and can he coach the team and we saw that that really struggled so that’s the issue you know and if they’re healthy that’s even a bigger issue yeah they tried to replace Nathaniel hacket last last season over the offseason but they went ahead and ran it back with him here I want to issue a correction in say they ended up winning nine games last year so they either pushed or went under the win total whether you bet under nine and a half or under nine you got to push on nine under nine and a half they went ahead and cash since they only went N9 and eight so the Jets are you too high too low or just right on the New York Jets like like if everything works out I can see this being a high upside team but it’s a big if with the New York Jets with all these guys that are injury prone on the offensive line and we’ll see if Rogers coming off the Achilles at the age of 40 if he can also be the Rogers that we knew prior to the injury there’s a lot of ifs here right and there’s a lot of ifs in the East right we don’t I mean Tu is not at Camp he’s not come in so we don’t know where that’s going to go is he going to be paid 53 million right they’re the Miami how good are they on defense right they just hired Anthony Weaver to coach the front seven he’s the defense coordinator you know that has been a little bit of a challenge how good are they in the secondary so Miami Buffalo right Buffalo’s got a lot of moving Parts on defense right they’re changed who they are defensively they’re undersized defensively do they have enough girth they got the great Josh Allen we understand that what will they be like offensively so I I I think there’s one of the things that lends itself to betting the Jets on an over tootal is simply because maybe the competition in the East isn’t as good as we thought it once was so you know again Rogers coming off the AC coming off the Achilles you know Hall’s a good back right in this L if they can just not turn this thing over and stay healthy defensively they’re really good but I think they took a step back with losing Meyers Franklin Myers and losing Hall Bryce Huff I mean Bry huff and those two guys were really and I and I don’t understand why the the Jets didn’t franchise them because they everybody in the league knew the Eagles were going to sign them everybody did yeah and they ended up replacing him with Hassan reck from the Eagles a little bit older but he’s been productive in the past as well reck getting a lot of sacks in that Philadelphia front how about the Chicago Bears their win total is at eight and a half too high too low just right for Matty bro Caleb Williams and the and the Chicago Bears I think it’s just right I think it’s just right I I I I I I think they you know they’re going to need some luck to get to nine I don’t know who they’re going to be defensively right I think that’s the issue and I think because of that I think you you’ve got to worry about the health we saw them last year when they weren’t healthy you know could they come through now we know that they’ve improved with sweat coming in there gave them some rush but who else on the defensive front is going to be good enough yeah to to me eight and a half is probably just right but if you can find a nine out there which they are out there I would bet under nine and and I did that Michael earlier this week I bet under nine on the Chicago Bears like if they if they win 10 games I’ll tip my cap and say Hey you beat me but I don’t see that happening so worst case scenario we could push on nine but I I’m skeptical of this with a a rookie quarterback this being the expectation is very very high and I get that he’s going into a really good situation from a skill position standpoint but with question marks on the offensive line they didn’t really do much to improve the defense over the off season I I think under nine is a pretty good bet if you can find it so as always shop around with these win totals cuz they vary from Sportsbook to sports book all right on the other side we’re going to turn our attention back to the hardwood vent senior NBA analyst Jonathan vono joins us next to break down the NBA Playoffs here on the Lombardi [Music] line the NBA playoffs are heating up and so is the action at draftking Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NBA new customers bet five bucks to get 150 in bonus bets instantly download the draftking sports book app now and use the code B only on DraftKings the crown is yours gambling problem call 800 Gambler or in West Virginia visit www.1 1800 gambler. net in New York call 8778 hopen or text Hope NY in Connecticut he is available for problem gambling call 8887895118 varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance see dk.com bball for eligibility and deposit restrictions terms and responsible gambling resources elevate your sports betting game with Von’s exclusive betting splits stay ahead with realtime market trends and track bet percentages on any matchup then uncover the Edge by comparing them to the amount of bets placed to find out where the sharp money is headed upgrade to Von Pro to access betting splits live odds line moves power rating and in-depth game analysis go to vn.com proo to join Vin the sports betting network if you didn’t catch the handle here’s what you missed I’ve said this for the last few years and I honestly believe this like Joe burrow and and Justin Herbert broke our brains about what rookie quarterbacks are like like they they came in and just right off the bat looked like all pros and it was two quarter you know and that’s just not how it works usually just need it’s yes it’s like this not normally how it works you know and so like we look at guy and who knows Bryce young May or he it might end up being a giant bust right but but Mike he’s he was in a bad situation with a bad team that lacked talent and the fact that he didn’t have a good season should have been expected and instead everyone’s like oh man he’s terrible look at this guy I mean what a waste of a pick and I mean maybe that maybe it will play out that he was a bad pick or maybe it will play out that he’s a bust but for us to draw that conclusion about a rookie quarterback on a bad team it’s like come on man let’s pump the brakes just to Tad the handle with Matt Brown and Mike smic weekends at noon Eastern 9:00 a.m. Pacific on V the sports betting Network at Vis we’ve got you covered before during and after every game jump start your game day with Tim Murray and Jonathan vonel on vent prime time at 6 Eastern they’ll get you ready before the first tip puck drop and Pitch ensuring you’re ahead of the game then stay in the loop during all the action with the Greg Peterson experience at 9: and as the night wraps up join Matt humans and West Reynolds on Von tonight at 11:00 giving you the first look at tomorrow’s lines to get an edge on the next day’s bets all this and more only on Von the sports betting Network the time of unreliable injury reports and rest Days Are Over the playoffs are here and it’s the best time to bet the NBA throughout the NBA Playoffs Vin has daily Best Bets analytics reports and series previews all the way through the NBA Finals you can also watch our 24/7 video stream access our betting splits and get picks sent to your inbox every morning so you can get ahead of any late line movement to get access to everything Von has to offer for the NBA Playoffs become a Von Pro subscriber at von.com slpro right now if you sign up for a vis Pro annual subscription you get an extra 2 months for free what’s worth betting on over the next 14 months the NBA Playoffs the NHL playoffs the rest of the baseball season the World Series all three triple season the NF playoff super crushed on that last year got to do better and that’s what we’re here for if you plan on betting any of these head to v.com subscribe and use the promo code football to get two free months with your annual subscription NBA [Music] playoff this is the Lombardi line with former NFL executive Michael Lombardi now here is your host feia Bea on VN the sports betting [Applause] network if you haven’t already check out the Michael Lombardi article on NFL schedules revealing tough seasons for a handful of teams it’s over on von.com we’ve talked a lot about NFL schedule so far today but if you want some extra analysis our very own Michael Lombardi wrote up about it on von.com it’s up there need a Von Pro subscription make sure you get that done today check out the website there’s up NBA playoffs Stanley Cup playoffs PGA Championship everything your heart desires it’s a new revamp website and it’s pretty awesome I encourage you to go ahead and look at at von.com today welcome back this is the Lombardi line here on the DraftKings Network family beay Michael Lombardi and to talk some NBA playoffs our vent senior NBA analyst Jonathan vontobel joins us now on the Progressive guest line jvt good morning hope all is well we appreciate you waking up with us we got two game sevens man two best words in sports and we got two of them let’s start with the one at Madison Square Garden Pacers Knicks right now New York three and a half Point favorites but the South Point just went to four total at 208 how do you see this one playing out from a from a betting standpoint I mean it’s a little B difficult this one right because there’s some noise OG Obi and Josh Hart and what their status is going to be for this game officially questionable still as we look at it the reports were that they were going to try to give it a g FEI but the two things that you don’t really know is one if it’s going to be official that they will and two what their status is you know as I always say we don’t get the street fighter health bar above our heads to indicate how healthy we are as we head into a game and frankly look I it’s been a really good story up to this point the Knicks fighting through adversity but we do have to talk about the fact that they have thrust that adversity upon themselves a little bit na Tom Tibido and the way that he has played these guys Josh Hart shockingly enough running a 100 miles since the end of May uh is not really conducive to health as you play a lot of these minutes and he deals with this abdominal strain and you have to wonder if ogan anobi is rushing himself back from a hamstring strain that can generally take a little bit longer so I think there’s a little noise it clearly seems though that the market actually believes that these guys are going to be out there we opened up three we’re up to four as you mentioned over the South Point some other spots are starting to get to that point too so the you’ll just generally see this from the market right which is not even belief of what’s going to happen or if these guys are healthy it’s more of a it seems that they’re going to play and if they’re going to play we want the best number available and so you lay three in the hopes that this thing closes at about four and a half so it’s probably where you get to we should also note that New York kind of punted in game six right when they kind of realized that the writing was on the wall and so they’re kind of gearing up for potentially one here one stop at home so I think generally the Knicks should move on I have not been a big fan of Indiana I think defensively they’ve been very poor I think they have gotten the very very good hand of being dealt a team that has been injured from Mitchell Robinson OJ anobi and now Josh Hart throughout this entire series I think the Knicks move on but from a number standpoint a game like this it is easy to sit back and wait because if the Knicks or assum me the the Knicks come out get off to a slow start let’s say Indiana goes up like 93 early on 10-2 you’re going to get a better number in game to get a short Underdog price on the New York Knicks wa J jbt were you shocked as I was about how aggressive and how physical Indiana played in game six because that was a different Indiana team than I’m I was used to seeing throughout the whole series they outrebounded the Knicks they dominated the boards they got 13 offensive rebounds it seemed to me like they changed who they were a little bit in terms of their mental attitude yeah Michael and and Frankly Speaking to like the the fact that like I’ve been kind of turned off by Indiana where was that this whole series you’re taking on a team that was like it’s like six guys deep right like you should be running them up down the floor and trying to exhaust this squad you as the bigger team where you have Miles Turner and Pascal seak in your front Court you’re playing a team that’s starting 464 guys are shorter you should be able to dominate them in terms of physicality on the glass frankly if you were a competent team we wouldn’t be here right you wouldn’t be at a game seven on the road you would have been able to take care of business so I’m with you it was a breath of fresh air to watch the way that they played the other night but at the same time do you have the confidence that they’ll be able to do that in New York where up to this point in the series hasn’t really gone well you’ve had some good performances from like a tyres Halbert and whatnot but this Knicks team has been playing well at home generally and that’s kind of been the tale of this series as we know so I’m with you like I like that but it hasn’t been consistent enough for me to really believe that a Nicks or excuse me an Indiana Pacers team that is one of the worst defensive teams in this postseason is going to be able to continue to do that here in a road environment where again too like this young Squad right not a lot of miles in terms of being in these sort of environments miles Turner’s been in the playoffs but tyres halberton this is a brand new animal form him and other so I think that’s kind of where I sit there and look like Pascal yakum has been here before and that goes to a player prop angle too really quickly Michael which is they don’t really have a ton and if OJ anobi is going to play you might want to get off of this but Pascal SE yakum since o anobi has been hurt has gone over his point total prop in each game but one so if he’s going to play then you might want to get off of that but if ojan noi ends up not playing or is limited in minutes uh Pascal seak to go over his point total prop is going to be something worth looking at again here for Indiana yeah that number on seak 21 and a half points if you want to go ahead and bet the over there obviously pending the status of ogn anobi for the New York Knicks we’re speaking with Jonathan Von toel vent senior NBA analyst here on the Progressive guest line check out jvt on vent.com and of course on Von prime time which you can see weekdays 6: to9 eastern time here at the network let’s get to the other game seven in the Rocky Mountains Timberwolves against the Nuggets right now Denver is a five-point favor total 198 uh how do you see this from a side and total standpoint and also are you looking to attack some props perhaps in this game between the t-wolves and the Nuggets so I think I think from a side persp perspective and full disclosure you know I’ve got a position on both sides here I got a future on Minnesota I took Denver when they were down two nothing in the series to get a little off of it so from a side perspective I’m going sit back and watch I want Minnesota to win and Fe I think that’s like the side I would plant my flag in the Timberwolves as we know have these three lopsided victories two of them are insanely lopsided one of them was a big win in crunch time which they ended up pulling away in game one but this team has had the more lopsided things work in their favor and I think when you look at the way that they have to defend which is we saw like the peak of that in game six they started to double niik yic they were pre- rotating guys before the ball even he hit jokic’s hands they were tenacious the other night on defense and if they can bring that same tenacity here in this game flying around switching prior again having Mike Conley back on the floor if you guys remember after game six Anthony Edwards was asked like hey what was the difference and he said shoot man well he didn’t say shoot but he said shoot it was Mike connley like Mike Conley’s back and when he’s on the floor guys in this postseason they’ve got A plus 14 net rating they’re incredible when he’s out there he gives them a GU to start getting everybody involved on offense he gives them a knockdown Corner shooter if they need to all these sort of things so the fact that this team’s going to be healthy they can play Tenacious defense for me it would be take five with the Minnesota Timberwolves as somebody who’s kind of believed in this experiment since last year when guys were punching fire extinguishers and punching each other and everything like that I think they’ve got the pieces to go in here and win this game potentially as far as the total’s concerned you know I wrote a little bit about this it’s going to be up on the website right now it’s a little dangerous at this point I think to get in on under if you guys remember a couple of weeks back it came on with you talked about Orlando and Cleveland I had taken the under in that game and I even got a better number but it still wasn’t the best number available and that one ended up having I think about 203 points in that game seven the market likes to just blindly hit these opening numbers and and bet them under right DraftKings open to a one and a half we’re down to as low as 198 and a half South Point in fact second mention for them that was begging for money on the over they went to 197 and a half for about 30 minutes before they got back up to 199 so I think we’re at the bottom Point here for me it would be 198 or over or or anything like that because I just think we’re a little too low now at this point right now but that’s where I’m at with siden total and I’ll say this really quickly for this game when we saw the Minnesota Timberwolves decide to double in a really big way on Thursday like they had sent a couple ones but it was like every possession yic is going to see two bodies I thought two things were viable one was going to be a guy like Jamal Murray to go over his his point total prop it was the lowest of the series and he got the workload he had 18 shot attempts problem is you only hit four of them right so you need the guy to do his end of the bargain but you at least going to get the volume there so again today 19 and a half I think you’re over at like minus 120 I think that’s a potential there but for me the bigger one would be joic over assists if you go back to that last game guys he only had two assists the tracking data tracked him at 15 assist opportunity so essentially kicking it out to guys who took a shot there was the potential for him to get doubleit assists in that game in fact maybe over 15 I think that’s going to be something to look at here they’re going to send doubles they’re going to send them hard they’re going to try to get the ball out of yit’s hands that means other guys have to knock them down and the fact that you’re back at home Michael Porter Jr Jamal Murray others should be in a better position to get those assists there for Nika yic how about the last night Dallas incredible win you know as we said before the show before you came on the air that everybody was more on the the Thunder than they were the Mavericks have you changed your opinion of the Mavericks based on what they did in the series and what kind of uh success and who do you think they would match up better against Minnesota or Denver yeah it’s it’s pretty fascinating Michael cuz you mentioned it like throughout this entire series that we saw the market firmly planted their flag in the side of Oklahoma City the serious price open pick closed in some spots as a do 135 I think every single game but one the market moved in favor of the Oklahoma City Thunder like there was some very Firm support from those who shaped the market on the side of the Oklahoma City Thunder now some of that had to do with power rating some of that had to do throughout this series we saw hey frankly like the shooting regression should just hit because the Thunder are a better shooting team than this and we saw little flashes of that but it’s pretty fascinating because in their first round series with LA the Mavericks were the team that the market couldn’t get enough of so now we move on to the Western Conference finals against whoever they face it’s going to be fascinating to see what the market wants to do with Dallas given who they’re going to face now as far as who would they rather take on I think you’d rather take on Denver Michael not because they’re the weaker team but for a team that likes to play the way that Dallas does right which is Luca slowly calculating going after mismatches trying to hunt guys there’s just more guys to hunt for Denver as opposed to Minnesota right for for Minnesota if you’re Luca and you’re trying to hunt mismatches it’s Mike Conley and then after that it’s elite Wing Defender jadeen McDaniels it’s elite Wing Defender Anthony Edwards it’s pretty solid big guy at least along the perimeter and Rudy goar like there’s not that many guys to go after an individual oneon-one isolation standpoint so I think that’s the way you want to do it it’s not that Denver is a bad defensive team but you can go after Jamaal Murray right you can go after Michael Porter Jr you can make those guys pay an isolation situation so I think from a matchup standpoint I think they’d rather want Denver what the series price would be for either is going to be pretty fascinating I don’t think it’s going to be higher than 20 uh 20 ex meus 200 all right that is jbt joining us on the Progressive guest line we’ll have West Reynolds help us wrap things up coming up next the NBA playoffs are heating up and so is the action at DraftKings Sportsbook in official sports betting partner of the NBA new customers bet five bucks to get 150 in bonus bets instantly download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use the code B only on DraftKings the crown is yours gambling problem call 1800 Gambler or in West Virginia visit www.1 1800 gambler. net in New York call 8778 Hope n or text Hope NY in Connecticut help is available for problem gambling call 8887895118 /bb for eligibility and deposit restrictions terms and responsible gambling resources I don’t know about you but I’m expecting a lot of points to be scored this year in the NFL let’s take a look at some of the players that could be scoring lots of touchdowns with the latest odds win offensive player of the year I’m Tim Murray from V the sports betting Network Christian mcaffrey is the favorite the San Francisco 49er running back sits at plus 650 last year over 1,400 yd rushing and 500 receiving yards in total 21 touchdowns for mcaffrey Tyreek Hill the Miami Dolphins has the same odds as Christian mcaffrey at plus 650 down in Dallas CD lamb plus 850 to win op y he had 1,700 receiving yards last year and 12 touchdowns Justin Jefferson who knows who will be his quarterback likely JJ McCarthy he sits at 14 to1 only played 10 games just a year ago and Jamar Chase in Cincinnati is 12 to1 to become a vison Pro subscriber head to von.com subscribe if you didn’t catch sharp money here’s what you missed Tatum talking about well we don’t have Coach of the Year and we don’t have more than two Allstars I don’t know where you guys are coming up with us being a good team it’s like oh my gosh the the opposite of a message you want your unquestioned leader sending the Knicks have every opportunity to [ __ ] and complain and they’re literally like no we can’t make excuses four of their top guys aren’t even playing jayen Brunson is so far in away my favorite Athlete on the planet at this point it’s really not even close I like Josh Hart as well I just love that Villanova Trio uh but that is a great answer I you know what a little Spirit what I love about that is like a little spirit and that’s what sports are about you love to hear it from Bron but also what is saying you know what we’re short handed and that’s why we’re going to end up coming what does that get you when the goal is to win this series sharp money with Patrick Maher weekdays at 3 p.m. Eastern on B the sports betting Network looking for the Ultimate sports betting podcast Von has got you covered with a wide range of podcasts covering every major sport we’re here to help you make smarter bets every season hardwood handicappers offers daily NBA analysis and picks from vent top hosts and experts and check out long shots where we Deep dive into the World of Golf betting providing you with expert insights to help you bet every tournament find all of these podcasts and more at von.com slmp podcasts or your favorite podcast platform right now if you sign up for a vison Pro annual subscription you get an extra 2 months for free what’s worth betting on over the next 14 months the NBA Playoffs the NHL playoffs the rest of baseball season the World Series all three triple regular season the NFL playoff the super crush on that got to do better and that’s what we’re here for if you plan on betting any of these head to v.com subscribe and use the promo code football to get two free months with your annual subscription [Music] playoffs this is the Lombardi line with former NFL executive Michael Lombardi now here is your host feab Bea on VN the sports betting Network the NBA playoffs are heating up and so is the action at draftking Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NBA new customers bet five bucks to get 150 in bonus bets instantly download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code vent only on DraftKings the crown is yours welcome back it’s the final segment of the Lombardi line here on the DraftKings Network family of B Michael Lombardi thank you to Jonathan Von toel our vent senior NBA analyst joined us in the last segment and joining us now to help us wrap up the show on the Progressive guest line it is the one and only West Reynolds host of vent tonight and the Von long shots podcast for you golf betters out there uh Wes good morning thanks for hanging out with us here on the Progressive guest line we’ll get to the PGA Championship momentarily you are also an Indianapolis native Pacers game seven at the Knicks it’s the 90s all over again we’re at the Garden how do you see this playing out with the Knicks right now they’re getting B out the south point now has them out to four total hanging out at 208 and a half well I I hope it’s the same result as it was 19 years ago or 29 years ago for a game seven uh when the ERS were able to escape there the the old 8 points9 seconds from Reggie Miller but yeah in terms of this game obviously there’s a lot to wait on you know with the Josh Hart news if he’s GNA go he was obviously battling that abdominal issue uh in game number six and OG hasn’t played since early in the series so is he G to be back uh with the hamstring but the way that I did play it I did play this game under the total here even though you’re already pay in the premium here for game seven unders but look game seven unders over the last 20 years about 62% uh so I think that this one strikes me as an under just because I I think that’s the way that’s the Nicks like route to Victory right is to maybe slow this down a little bit and make it a more of a half court grinder because you know the Pacers are more comfortable playing uptempo uh you know they were one of the highest scoring teams in the league they were also one of the worst defensive teams in the league so I think if you’re the Knicks you want to make him play defense every possession uh if you want to win this game so I have no idea on the side I tend to lean Nicks I’m not going to bet it though without knowing what’s going on with Haron and and noi but I do think this is a lower scoring game today how about the way the Pacers played in in game six at home do you think they can carry over that physicality and intensity I hope so Michael because they needed to because game number five they they kind of did get punked out a little bit and they got beat up on the boards I think I believe they only had five offensive rebounds in game five and Isaiah hartenstein had more just by himself and you know the Pacers are not a good rebounding team anyway they’re not necessarily a big team but the way they want to play defensively is they want to funnel you to the rim and they want to run you off the three-point line uh and not get beat that way but you know hopefully this toughness carries over we know Tyreek halberton has not looked 100% in this series I don’t think it’s the hamstring he was battling I think it’s more of a of a back issue but you can’t pull a disappearing act Tyrese can’t do that and Pascal cakam can’t do that and seak I think really came through in game number six but this is a guy that they’re going to give Max contract money to apparently this summer and he’s got to deliver today and and and that’s all there is to it your bench McConnell and toppen and the guys can only carry you so much so you know the stars have got to deliver for the Pacers and there have been times where they’ve been really hit and miss in this series we’re hanging out with Wes Reynolds here host of Von tonight the look ahead and the Von long shots podcast here on the Progressive guest line Wes let’s turn our attention over to Valhalla the PGA Championship final round later on today in Louisville Xander shafley and Colin morawa are co-leaders is today the day that Xander finally breaks through and gets that elusive major championship Victory it could be and it probably should be because he’s never been able to convert these leads in major championships but uh my one my one bullet probably to win that that I have left going into the tournament is actually Bryson Des Shambo who I think you could get at about six or seven to one depending on your store out there and look often times these major championships feing are kind of defined by a moment right you know some kind of moment that happens everybody’s got some scar tissue everybody makes a mistake like we saw Xander with the double bogey on the back nine yesterday but when I talk about those moments I’m talking about Bryson Des Shambo chipping in at 18 for eagle and you know the the little fist pump there and getting two back because he he was not great yesterday especially on his irons he lost like 1.62 Strokes on approach and then had to scramble he had to go eight of nine for scrambling to get up and down so know the fact that he was able to kind of survive a little bit yesterday I think maybe is good for his fortunes today uh this is a guy he Le he leads the field obviously leads the golf world on driving distance but I think he’s right there I think he’s in good position he’s had a couple times where he’s been in the mix to win on Liv this year and has kind of faded away on Sunday I don’t think he Fades away today how about first of all two things Shane Lowry I mean unbelievable do you think that’s duplic he can duplicate that type of day and what do you think the Victor the final score total will be to win the tournament I don’t think that he can Michael just because it was the best putting round of his career where he gained 5.6 Strokes putting over 18 holes had a shot actually at a 61 that’s at the alltime major championship record yesterday I you know I don’t want to necessarily doubt Shane Lowry because he is an open Champion he he he is a major championship winner but just to pot like that I think you know I I don’t know if I could see it for two days even though this course Valhalla as you mentioned this has played a little a lot easier than I think people thought it was going to as the week went on it was kind of like you know what this is probably going to play at least a little bit easier because the course has softened up a little bit so it’s maybe not as firm and fast as it was designed to play and you’re seeing just the score and like it seemed like everybody was making a move and everybody was making everything yesterday even though they never were able to catch the two leaders shaa and morawa so I’m looking at this score I think it’s probably going to be 18 under par I wouldn’t be shocked if it reached 20 I know a lot of the guys on the Golf Channel they were talking to you know surveying all the caddies out there they’re saying I think 20 under is going to win here going into the week I thought it was going to be like 13 or 14 under yeah we’ve already surpassed that 15 under our co-leaders Xander shley and col morawa well the fact that the is playing easier than expected does that mean that somebody from the back could come maybe make a charge up there like could this be Justin Thomas we saw it two years ago when he charged up when Meo Pereira and will zures were in the final pairing then all of a sudden Justin Thomas forces the playoff and he ultimately wins the PGA Championship at Southern Hills can something like that happen today where somebody who’s sort of off the pace right now can charge up and potentially steal this PGA Championship I think it could Sami and then that one was that one was beneficial for me hopefully we get another break like that in the PGA uh today but yeah only 10 under par uh there’s a group of players at 10 under Tony fow is there too fow had some opportunities yesterday that he kind of let get away so yeah you’re gonna see somebody from the back a few shots back that I think at least get into the mix of these thing I I I gotta tend to think that it’s gonna be one of the four of shop play morala sahis theala or Bryson but look you got Victor hin in the mix and his game was nowhere all season long he had changed swing coaches several different times had the sports psychologist with him at Augusta National so you know he had just been really going through some mental blocks with his game and then all of a sudden he reunites with Joe Mayo who’s actually based right out here in Las Vegas as a swing coach and and it worked and and that’s what he needed to get him out of his slump but uh I think somebody could come from the back it’s just how far back can you do it 18 holes I think you probably got to be within three or four I don’t know if you’re going to see 62 on Sunday like you did [Music] yesterday hey Wes real quick we got about a minute uh we saw the schedule come out what’s your favorite over under team total that you love to play oh man yeah yeah this is hard and I’ve actually just uh started doing the uh the work on that uh I would be looking uh just at the schedule I leave Steelers under a little bit Michael just because the schedule at the back end is so difficult it’s all divisional games it’s all top teams and I wonder if that team and time and time again they pulled a rabbit out of the hat and gotten the winning season but I wonder if they can do that this year you know it depends on how the quarterback on how Russ is gonna play but yeah the Steelers I just think maybe that schedule is going to wear them down at the end be careful Wes tomlin’s never been below 500 all right heard that careful I’m just saying be careful he is West re check him out on Von tonight the look ahead also the long shots podcast Wes who do you think wins the PJ championship in 10 seconds we didn’t even ask you that who do you think ultimately wins today I’m hopeful but I think it’s gonna happen too Bryson Des Shambo gets the W maker trophy today all right we’ll be looking out for that we got the two game Sev 28 to One play there we go let’s get to the window with that huh that’s that’s a nice size ticket all right Wes good luck with the bets man be well you got it guys thank you awesome stuff there from West Reynolds well that wraps it up here for us Michael I mean we got two game sevens the PJ Championship do you have your two TVs set up ready to go today I’m ready to go I’m Fe I got four game FEI ready to go today I’m all set don’t worry I’ll have it all covered for you no there’ll be no baseball FEI and there’s no baseball I don’t have time I I can’t digest at all I don’t have that will Hill skill to know everything the Phillies are playing well I thought you might want to watch that does it for us here on this day for our producer ellot B for Michael andard I’m Fe B face and good luck with the bets the handle with Matt Brown Mike Sage coming up next the NBA playoffs are heating up and so is the action at draftking sports book in official
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