The Handle – MAY 18, 2024
Saturday edition of the handle here on V and DraftKings Network Matt Brown Mike Sage coming to you from Las Vegas on the desk in town it is one of the special weekends talk about that a little bit later as well but get things started here Mike we uh we’re going to get a game seven the Pacers tie the series 33 Pascal sakam has a big game for the Pacers we love game sevens the greatest thing ever game seven we love hearing that especially from a Content perspective love being able to talk game seven but from sports fan perspective as well uh game seven here in this one and listen it was a it’s a series in which both teams have looked dominant both teams have looked atrocious these playoffs have been very weird just in general where it seems like one night one team shows up and the other team doesn’t it’s not just in this series it just seemed like almost in every series uh but at least with this one we are going to get a game seven and uh we’ll see if this this Knicks team can overcome all of these injuries all the stuff been going on with them see if they can get this series done yeah I mean that’s that’s going to be the for the Knicks year the injuries right we we’ve been talking about them throughout this entire series now we’ve got a heart injury that happens last night looked like an abdominal injury he did come back to the game uh didn’t play as well as uh as he had in past game so we’ll see how heart able to respond to the injury it’s going to be fun I mean Madison Square Garden game seven those are some phenomenal words as a sports fan feel like I like the Knicks early I’ve liked the Knicks throughout this series but I I need to know like what are we going to get from Hart and even like Brunson looked a little rundown in that first half and they’ve been playing 40 minutes a game consistently throughout the playoffs here it’s hard to keep up with that level of pace especially for someone like Brunson who has to be the guy every single game if they’re going to win yeah another 30-point effort for him in this one but you know it was like you said maybe the the burst was just like a a fraction off for him in this one that said sometimes a blowout can work in your favor did only have to go 38 minutes in this one because they were able to get them out of the game so sometimes you know blowout does work for there but he goes for 31 they get 20 from McBride 17 from divon chinzo who by the way shoots like six of 14 from from the field I mean you know again it’s just it was it was a decent effort across the board kind of from the Knicks but no one really had a good effort no not a great effort and they they struggled on the boards as well it seemed like Indiana was winning all the loose balls they were getting more rebounds and that was the thing that you loved about this Knicks team earlier on in the playoffs when they were healthy when they were able to play eight guys versus seven and now you’re playing your you’re essentially eighth and n guy because of the injuries that you’ve had on this team they were they were dominating on the offensive glass they were winning all the races to the loose balls they were out hustling teams and last night they got out hustled by the Pacers and that is where you start to worry about okay are do they have enough gas left in the tank to go seven here I I mean the winner of this series is Boston right I mean this is this is great for them you’ve got these two teams going deep into this series Boston sitting there resting waiting for them if it’s the Knicks it’s going to be a banged up Knicks if it’s the Pacers the Celtics might put up a buck 50 every single game I mean they’re just sitting there smiling right now two eliminations last night over in the NHL Florida Panthers defeat the Boston Bruins they’re going to face the New York Ranger Dallas Stars needed two overtimes but they win the series over the Avalanche 4-2 in that one so here we go we are starting to narrow this thing down stars get it done a Stars team that was on the ropes against the Vegas golden knights now have advanced not only come back in that Series win this one 4 to2 it was a team we’ll get we we’ll get back to the an but it was a team not only yourself but a couple of different hockey analysts that we talked to said yeah you know even down in that series to vgk I still think they’re probably the best team and if they’re not the best team they are one of maybe two of the best best teams in the NHL and then here they go and kind of prove it yeah hopefully we got some of the handle family who are on the Stars right now we talked about them 25 to1 after being down 02 to the Vegas golden knights talk about them 11 to1 being down 2 to1 to the golden knights talked about tinger 14 to1 to win the K Smite he looks like he’s going to be the guy if it is this Dallas Stars team that’s able to continue the momentum and much like the Celtics the stars are sitting there just laughing right now I mean they get the winner of this Vancouver Edmonton series and Edmonton we’ll talk about this game in detail a little bit later but Edmonton can’t score five on five and Vancouver doesn’t have the Firepower to keep up with them so they get a a phenomenal draw in the Western Conference Finals as well and then this Panthers team goes out and and Boston was kind of it looked just outgunned in the entire series I know they did end up winning two games in this one but it just looked like the Panthers were the much much better team and Panthers end up winning the thing for it too yeah the Panthers were the better team I mean it really was that simple and you look back in the first round the Bruins able to get by the the Toronto Maple Leafs but that’s without Austin Matthews for multiple games the the the Leafs had to go through multiple goalie still took seven to get past the Maple Leafs and and then you ran into a Panthers team that’s just they’re Juggernaut man like they can roll four lines they’ve got multiple top end Talent on the offensive side they’ve got a very good power play very good penalty kill bosi is playing excellent net I I mean I think the two teams that won last night are the best two teams we have left in this tournament I think it’s it’s the Bruins and I think it’s the Panthers and the stars are going to be in the final now and with all of that happening in the Sports World it wasn’t even the biggest story of yesterday um if someone said to me hey Matt I’m going to give you one million you have 20 different guesses as to which golfer went to jail uh yesterday morning I would have still I would have not have the million dollars because I would have named 20 other guys and I said give me 20 more guesses then I 20 more guys I’d never have gotten a Scotty Sheffer I’d have started naming analysts and stuff before I got to Scotty Sheffer Scotty sheffler does in fact brief trip to the uh to the to the clink gets incarcerated for a short time goes out and what does he do he just he just fires a 66 the focus is just unbelievable and there stories coming out of the jail like he literally is in his cell stretching going through his pre-stretching motions to make sure that he stays on time to be able to get back to the course by the 10: a.m. T time goes out there shoots phenomenally well and and this is just it’s a unfortunate situation he should not have done what he did um the focus to be able to rebound from that to me is is just Next Level I can’t even imagine going to jail at 6:00 a.m. during a major tournament and being able to come back at 10:00 and shoot that well it almost seems like this is inevitable that he is going to win this thing but of course we’ll talk about that here and you got to give a hat tip to just Society I don’t know if you saw this they’re people who had his mug shot on t-shirts who he’s giving high fives to on the back nine the turnaround to get that mug shot on a t-shirt just phenomenal work all my friends thought they were so clever and they were firing off little you know things into our group chat and I’m like dude if you think you’re the first person to think of that if you think you’re the first person and of course like you mentioned they already had them done and out there on the course and Paul skin we talked about his debut the one of the you know most hyped pitching prospects in a very very long time goes out six hitless Innings strikes out 11 Cubs including the first seven Cubs that he faced he reached a pitch count that they were not going to let him go any longer so he did not go any longer and um you know that’s that’s just what happens with these young guys you’re going you’re going to get pulled in the middle of no hitter whenever they are watching your pitch count like a hawk you know and so Paulk does get pulled from that game after six hitless Innings with 11 strikeouts do you remember when we talked about this last weekend what his year-long strikeout prop was yeah 106 A5 it’s now 151 and a half just a slight adjustment two starts into the career here four Paul skes 5 to1 to win the NL rookie of the year now over under win totals up from 5 1/2 to 7 1/2 at this point sa young NL 100 to1 probably a little bit of a pipe dream that he’s going to win this sa young yeah I still don’t love the 5 to one on the Rookie of the Year side I’m just not sure how many innings he ends up going but that the strikeout total like if he’s able to throw the gas that he did and you saw start one to start two he was so much more calm so much more poised clearly the moment was not too big for him in the second start and he settled down and he pitched phenomenally yesterday yeah it was it really it was awesome to watch and there’s going to be a lot of those starts hopefully he stays healthy and avoids the injury bug like we do each and every show we got five things we’re looking forward to betting today all right classic high five it’s time for the handles high five high five all right number one we got us a game six here Mike Thunder and the Mavs Mavs are three and a half Point home favorites 209 is our total if you think the Thunder get it done outright plus 150 it should be a phenomenal game six big game for the Mavs here you don’t want to go back to Oklahoma City you want to have take the opportunity close it out at home especially as short favorites here the total interesting to me as well uh 209 and a half right now we saw this as high as 216 217 and a half earlier in the series uh consistently been going under we’ve seen this total tick down tick down this is the lowest we’ve seen so far in this series yeah it’s uh it’s really interesting for me just overall this series because you have this you have this team in the Mavs that like without really any big performances from Kyrie are still right there it’s just really odd to me it’s the scary part is you feel like you haven’t gotten the A+ game from Kyrie or Luca yet it’s it’s been a bunch of like meh games from Luka good but not like oh my God and Kyrie just hasn’t cooked yet and if they get going watch out let’s keep it going number two we got us another game number six Canucks at the Oilers Vancouver looking to advance here with a road win Oilers huge favorites here- 195 today total sitting at five or six in this game we’ve seen five and a halfs consistently the Oilers need to figure out how to score five on five the Canucks were the best team five on five during the regular season the Oilers have just struggled mightily and and you’re seeing the Canucks roll multiple lines the Oilers really have two big lines that are their scoring threats they have to crack through five on five and McDavid has to show up tonight he has to has a have a big game for the Oilers to stay alive let’s keep it going number three hey if Mike’s in studio you know that means them hos is going to be running around in a circle and that’s what we got today pness Stakes down to eight horses now down to eight horses down to eight horses we can’t get 10 we can’t get 12 we’re down to eight MTH last time we were on on on here with you guys M was the favorite he was everyone everyone he’s not even going to go no now he h spiked a 103 fever on Wednesday so he will be out but we’ve got a phenomenal undercard already on Race four a little bit of rain in the forecast so we’re going to have an off track we’ll talk about that a little bit later and how that affects the race if it uh if it changes my picks there but should be a fun race I need we have Mystic Dan here so you’ve got the the Derby winner back into the pness and the pricing on The Daily Double something else we’re going to talk about here in the next next segment very interesting in this spot Mystic Dan’s price not what I expected Let’s Roll Along number four we’ll talk to PGA as well Xander chafl enters today with a one-stroke lead over Colin morawa a two-stroke lead over s theala and then a three-stroke lead over a whole bunch of guys that are really good at golf as well so this could get really interesting a fun leaderboard for this major so feeling good about talking about the PGA Championship let’s close it out number five we’re going to talk some NFL week one Mike if you you uh didn’t catch us here we had a special on Wednesday what were you doing it was beautiful I thought I mean a symphony of talking about stuff on the Fly I thought we crushed it yeah it was uh it was it was interesting to say the least but we have had some time to digest a little bit more we’re going to talk some NFL week one stff now that these schedules are out we know who’s playing and where and what some of these paths might look like along the way because man we we found some the other day and I think we’re going to find even more as we get through all this but when we come back let’s go ahead and get straight to the track let’s see what you have going in the Press here [Music] today this is the handle with Matt Brown and Mike sumage on Vin the sports Bing Network this is the handle here on V and DraftKings Network we are proudly brought brought to you by draftking Sportsbook and we know you got a draftking Sportsbook account but head over and get you a DK horse account today so you can bet the Press it’s an official DraftKings affiliate right now new customers who downloaded the DK horse app you get a 100% bonus up to $250 when you use the promo code vent horse that is all one word Mike all one s i n h o r s e just deposit $25 or more you complete the playthrough requirement and you can get $250 up to $250 in bonus over there DK horse app downloaded right now SLE up partner want to bet the horses with Mike Sage when I bet on horses I never lose why I bet on all the horses it’s time to Pony up get upo that’s a good I love I like that I like that opening crushed it right there we’re about to put a graphic up on the screen you’re going to see the favorite that we talked a lot about last week no longer in the field you loved this horse I did I was you love this horse you were about to bet all the all all your worldly possessions on this horse M no longer there I wouldn’t go that far but uh half of my worldly possessions probably would have been he was just a standout in my mind um and it’s unfortunate we don’t have him here uh it it I thought it would create a phenomenal betting situation because when you scratched out M he was 8 to5 on the morning line Mystic Dan was 5-2 we saw Mystic Dan go down to 8 to five and it was logical right he’s your Kentucky Derby winner um not a bunch of world beaters coming in here as new Shooters I was expecting we were going to see Mystic Dan somewhere in that that even money six to5 type range when they broke from the gate however there’s a a daily double that you can play and it’s the blackeyed Susan which was the three-year-old Phillies yesterday into the pness today and what it does is it gives you a very good idea of what the odds are going to be for the pness okay and I was shocked by the outcome here so the favorite in the Daily Doubles was the8 horse Tusk and gold the second choice was the three horse catching Freedom the third choice was the N9 horse imagination Mystic Dan your fourth choice in that pool so you may end up with somewhere in that 3:1 7 to2 type range on Mystic Dan which I think is closer to the correct odds I think he should probably be around 5 to one in this race so still not where I would put him but a lot closer to the actual value of Mystic Dan in this spot outside of the fact that we know there are only eight horses in this race talk to me like I’m five and tell me the difference between this race and the Kentucky Derby it’s a little bit shorter right so the the Kentucky Derby mile and a quarter this pness is a mile and 3/16 and the key with this race versus a race like the Kentucky Derby so yes there’s less horses 8 versus 20 so the trip is going to be different you’re going have a little bit slower Pace but worried about post position and all the stuff like that really because hes you take into account but it’s not nearly as big of a factor right you’re not essentially saying okay the 1 through four they need the perfect trip to win or the the 16 through 20 are going to be wide on both turns right everyone should be able to work out their own trip assuming that they get a good ride here the biggest difference though is the rest going into the Kentucky Derby every one of those horses had at least three to four weeks rest and all of them were rested heading into the race with the Preakness we’ve got four horses here that that ran on Kentucky Derby Day two weeks ago okay we’ve got four horses that are coming in with five six 7 weeks rest heading in here so a much fresher horse there and that’s one of the the key parts of handicapping the pness is deciding do I want to play these horses that are running back on short rest how much do I think the race took out of them and then how do I handle these horses that are going to be more rested coming into the race because it is an edge it’s an edge to not have to run two weeks ago and wheel back quickly it’s why this is such a hard thing to win the Triple Crown you have to win three races in 5 weeks now the horses that are that are Wheeling back are the three catching Freedom the five Mystic Dan the six sees the gray and the Seven just steel the other four have a little bit more rest so it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out and when I when I look at the races from the Derby or from Derby Day what stands out to me Mystic Dan was all in everything he had he emptied the tank to win that race just steel was on the early lead and quit that’s a tough race to run and CES the gray was in the Pat Day M which was on the other undercard he had to run a lot to win that race as well of those four catching freedom to me is the one that’s most interesting because he didn’t ever really empty the tank in the Kentucky Derby because of the trip he gotten because of the fact that he didn’t have a chance to win the race so playing uh playing a little bit of Sports Talk Radio here horse talk radio even there if you want to let’s do some horse talk radio 30 seconds they should spread these races out more right no no they shouldn’t they they need to make this difficult and the fact that it was it’s always been five weeks it should stay five weeks the the it’s not a question you can answer in 30 seconds but the issue is inside the breeding of the horses not the spacing of the races okay it just seems to me like I’m talking more just from a fandom perspective because like you’re going up against you know again other Playoff game you’re going up against a major in golf you’re going up against to me it’s like okay move back one extra week and then you’re you know you’re almost owning the Saturday you know yeah I mean you could make an argument that you you should pick your weekends better um and but the problem with with the Preakness I mean the the pness has juice because it’s the second Jewel of the Triple Crown and you always have a Triple Crown opportunity when the Derby winner is running back in the race the Belmont doesn’t have a lot of juice if you don’t have the triple crown for your average fan I still love it I think it’s a probably the second best weekend of the Year from a betting perspective outside of the Breeders Cup uh but your average fan not going to be that interested in the Bellmont if we don’t have a triple crown on the line all right so we’ll get to the the prus itself here but we’re going to get to race 10 and 11 before we get to race 13 so let’s talk Race 10 what do you like there yeah we’re going to go with the five Force here corporate power 8 to 5 on the morning line I think this is your most likely winner of the day the price should be right around the 8 to 5 May tick down a little bit there was a scratch of the8 horse who was your second choice in this race uh but corporate power is a horse that’s ran well three times only run three times in his career ran a nice second last time out did it over an off track we do have some rain in the forecast we currently have a good track at Pimco so track shouldn’t be an issue for the number five corporate Power 8 to5 on the morning line I’d be willing to play corporate power down to probably 6 to5 7 to five range ooh there is real Macho in the field though yeah real Macho’s in there I actually like the four a little bit as well um and that so if if you’re looking for an exacty you want to play a little bit bigger of a get a little bit more price in here uh going to 54 cold Exacta I don’t hate that idea either yeah I I’m I’m real Macho might get some of my money today because you know you know how we go if you bet him he will get some of your money you know you know how you know how we go with this all right so we’re going to go to uh race 11 as well yeah race 11 here this a five forong Turf Sprint and uh I love the one horse here Grooms all business 8 to one on the morning line uh H Dart dwarte Jr one of the trainers that you don’t really know even if you follow the sport and that’s because J Dart dwarte Jr only trains for Colts next stable so he doesn’t have a lot of horses to go so far this year he is 3 for 13 that’s a 31% win percentage uh they gelded this horse which means they made it a little aerodynamic the ultimate equipment change if you will um and this sets up very well for him on the rail to be able to get a very good trip he’s been able to handle the good Turf in the past that’s what we have today because of the rain a good Turf and he’s going to be able to sit right behind the speed and pounce the 8 to1 price I think is phenomenal and this is a horse this is a barn that fires very well off the layoff that’s what we’ve got with the one Grooms all business in the 11th race today oh man though Mike we got boats of rocking and we also have beer can man in this one so it’s funny you mention those come on dude I I’ve got the 12 and second I’ve got the eight and fourth so I like both of those horses as well so we can trifect to these just to make sure that we get the good names in you can trifect to them for the good names yes the three horse surprise boss do you think it’s like surprise boss or like or is it just kinding hey I’m I’m your surprise boss do you think it’s like he’s screaming surprise to his boss or do you think it’s like hey man I’m I’m a surprise boss I think it’s a surprise boss okay cuz like you know the the boss keeps winning races so it’s the like they didn’t expect the horse to win that many races Sur surpr boss it surprise he’s if he is the boss today it would be a surprise it would be a surprise he is 50 to1 so there we go see that’s a fun Trifecta there guys we’re going to come back around on on that one when it’s all said and done we get all the good names in all right so let’s go to the race everyone’s going to be watching uh you are you are going to imagination I am I look the scratch of MTH was was big in a couple reason for a couple reasons first off it takes the best horse out of the race that obviously matters the second reason it sets up imagination to be lone speed breaking from now the eight post instead of the nine post this is the other Bob bafford in the race and I was surprised imagination was even in the pness when Muth was in the prnus as well because they’re both trained by the same trainer and MTH is clearly the better horse imagination ran second in the Sanita Derby uh ran second to stronghold stronghold broke all the way on the outside in the Kentucky Derby and he ran I thought exceptionally well for for the trip that he got and the pace setup that he ended up with there so I consider that Sanita Derby a little bit better than what we saw on paper and imagination’s an interesting case this is a horse that sold for over a million dollars uh by it uh the fathers into Mischief which is one of the best mud sers in America so the off track should not be a problem for imagination and he is one of those horses that’s just Ultra talented but doesn’t put horses away all that often so even if you go back and you watch the Sanita Derby he got the lead stronghold passed him he repass stronghold and then let stronghold pass him again I don’t see any horses that are going to be able to really come up and press him and I don’t think it was an issue of of being tired at the end of the Sania Derby I think he just got a little bit lack aasal got a little disinterested that’s something you can train out of a horse and if he puts it all together today I think he’s awfully scary especially considering if he crosses over and gets the lead they’re going to go 48 seconds to the half mile and he has got a very good chance to go gate to wire Bob baer’s won this race eight times most of any trainer and won it last year with National Treasure going gate to wire I think we’re going to see something similar today you’re also liking catching freedom and Uncle heavy yeah so catching Freedom we talked about him a little bit I to me he is the horse you want out of Derby Day so the three horse there catching Freedom I’ve gotten second Uncle heavy the two horse 20 to1 on the morning line last time out he got a terrible trip at aqueduck not going to go off 20 to1 by the way I hear everyone talking about Uncle heavy everyone loves Uncle Heavy He’s 33 to1 in the double pool though so you may actually get a float up we’ll see what happens but this this horse picks up irad Ortiz Jr who’s your Eclipse winning jockey uh for the best jockey in the US last year and the setup is going to be better for him today he can handle an off track and the last race at aqueduck was brutal broke all the way on the outside 12 out of the 12 post had trouble early had trouble in the lane never really got to get his gears turning that was his first off a layoff I think you see a big time Improvement at a big time price going to Mi some Tusk and gold into these Exotics as well yeah I like the eight uh it’s a a Chad Brown horse that skipped the Derby he’s done very well with that in the past we we we’ll recap all this before it’s all said and done but we’re going to uh make sure that you have your bets in in in the account before this race goes off but when we come back let’s talk some [Music] NBA this is the handle with Matt Brown and Mike sumage on Vin the sports Ving Network we come on here we offer you discounted Ann ual subscriptions to vent Pro all the time you’re driving along right now you’re listening to this you’re going like yeah man I I hear you you you’re going to give me 12 months for $1.99 I get it no we’re not we’re going to give you 14 months for 199 how many months 14 we’re giving you two months absolutely free everyone’s listening like dude I’m I’m not listening to you anymore I get it I can get 12 months for one no no we’re going to get 14 months for $199 at von.com subcribe you got to use the promo code handle h a n d l e if you do not use that promo code handle I don’t know what’s going to happen it might charge you double I I don’t I don’t know so you got to go in hn dle we’re going to be 14 months for $19 v.com SLS subscribe Matt Mike here underway already over at the PJ we’ll Circle back to that a little bit later see what’s going on we still have some time to get in some going have to keep you focused here Matt Focus yeah we we have some we still have some time to get in some bets the leaders in the leading groups don’t go off for for a little while here so we’ll we’ll Circle back and talk about that but let’s get to to the basketball game here in the Thunder and the Mavericks three and a half in favor of the Mavs as we talked about 209 is your total if you think the Thunder win this thing outright plus 150 so I I alluded to this whenever we were kind of teasing this at the top of the show Mike it’s it’s been a weird series for me just overall we’ve tried to handicap whether we think Luca’s hurt or not if he is to what extent what is that affecting for him we’ve seen big scoring games out of him we’ve seen not so not not great scoring games out of him there’s just been some weirdness kind of through all of this with this Mavs team and you even look at their their last win in which you know they 104 to 92 over the thunder in that one but you go down and you look and you’re like Kyrie goes for 12 points you know he he makes the only two threes that he shoots he doesn’t get to the free throw line at all he only has he’s only got two rebounds four assists for a guy like Kyrie you’re just going like what’s going on it’s odd to me that the Mavs are able to do this without Kyrie really really pitching in you know and then you’re like oh well it must have been Washington then that got it done no he had 10 points so it’s just I don’t know how it’s happening it’s happening so I just have to I just have to soak it in and realize that this is a thing that is going on in the sports order yeah I mean well it was it was Derrick Jones Jr last game right I mean he ends up with 19 so he picks up PJ Washington PJ Washington phenomenal earlier in the playoffs for this Mavs team uh just shot two for seven from three luk three points shots I think have been interesting throughout the playoffs we shot saw him shoot 23% in the opening round he’s up to 35% in the second round but even in like game three he only took four threes and that’s very odd for Luca now he took 11 hit five last game so you you want to say okay maybe he’s starting to get the shot back maybe the knees feeling a little bit better the ankles feeling a little bit better but the K Kyrie conundrum to me is is definitely one that you got to at least discuss right he took 11 shots in 39 minutes ends up 5 for 11 like you said didn’t get to the line which is surprising you expect he’s going to be able to drive get some free throws out of it this is what makes this Dallas team so scary to me and it’s what we’ve been talking about it’s look Luca and Kyrie are going to get theirs one of them is going to be able to go off or consistently play well and then you have enough role players that are stepping up at the right time for him it was PJ Washington early now it’s Derrick Jones Jr you’ve got Gafford you’ve got Hardway who can hit threes uh Lively chipped in 11 points he was three for four from the field five for six from the line with 10 rebounds last game it’s coming from all these different places and it’s not 100% % reliant on Luca and Kyrie but when it comes down to crunch time you still have two of the best in the game to do it and that’s what makes this Dallas seem team so tough is that you’ve got people who are consistently stepping up and this game four five that we’re talking about they did it on the road and you consist like in the playoffs the role players generally play better at home that’s what makes Dallas scary in this specific spot here in game six and this to me is almost a must-win for Dallas you don’t want to go back to OKC 33 you look the other thing that’s just was odd about this too right so then you go back even to to game four in which the Mavs lost by four and you go and like Kyrie goes for nine points in that game right and it’s like so I just don’t know how you play 41 how are you Kyrie Irving and you play 41 minutes with these skill that you possess and Come Away with nine points you were the only starter that didn’t hit double digits in that game and so I don’t know man I’m looking at this point prop and I know he could absolutely obliterate it if if he actually decides to try and go score I don’t know why he’s not trying to go score I don’t know why he’s only taking a handful of shots but I mean it’s sitting 20 and a half he’s gone for nine and 12 yeah I I it’s it’s like I don’t know I don’t know it’s either you bet the alt over because he’s going to go for 30 you know what I’m saying he’s actually going to decide to shoot 20 times in this game or you you just play the under because he’s playing like passive in this in this series yeah I I kind of want to take the over and it’s because of adjustment that we’ve seen he was as high as 252 in this series he was 23 and2 I believe in game three now we’re seeing him down at 20 A2 and you’re actually seeing juice toward the under as well I’m a little tempted to just say okay I’m going to play the variance and say this is something where he kind of figures it out and gets gets it going however in this series he’s only gone over this total 20 and a half one time that was game three where he went for 22 he took 17 shots in that spot even in game two he ends up with nine points only took eight shots so he he’s not been as aggressive as we’ve seen from Kyrie in previous situations I mean you go back to the first series he went over this total every game except for one yeah if you just maybe there’s an Al maybe there’s some sort of alts to play in this one that we can look at like I said if you if you believe he goes over he probably goes way over because he just decides to get aggressive 25 plus is probably plus 140 something like that 2 almost like over 24 and a half over 25 and a half or whatever it might be 25 plus or some kind of like alt market like that because we know what we know what he can do if he decides to do it it’s just for whatever reason last two games he has not decided to do that at all when he doesn’t look injured either it’s not like this is something where oh Kyrie’s battling an injury right it’s it’s no he’s just he’s not in the flow of the offense getting the number of shots that we’ve seen him get in the past and he’s only taken you know what he’s averaging about 11 shots in this series right now that’s lower than what you’d expect from Kyrie Irving especially as the number two option on this team but again when the role players are stepping up Kyrie or Luca is going to step back and in this case it’s been Kyrie which is what you’d expect SGA is sitting at 31 and a half it’s hard for me to play an over on a 31 and a half I know how good he is I know he is definitely being aggressive in this in this series I understand that he is not afraid to take the shots and whenever his team needs him he will step up and be the guy if he has to shoot six possessions in a row he’ll do it It’s just tough for me I understand the increased minutes and all of that but to to think that a guy’s going to just get to 32 points I mean listen Brunson you know like even last game for for the Knicks like Brunson basically shoots every time for the Knicks and he only gets to 31 you know it’s like you still have to be somewhat efficient even with volume to get to that 32 number so it’s just it’s it’s tough for me to get there that being said it’s about right I’d probably put him right in that 30 range oh the nine playoff games so far has gone over that total three times in the nine games the problem with with Guild Alexander and the overs to me versus someone like Brunson there are a lot of options on this OKC team there there are a lot of different players that end up getting shots here and yes you know Shay is going to be SJ is going to be the key cop he is going to get to the line he’s going to be taking the majority of the shots for them but at the same time they can spread it out very well and so he’s a lot a player I’m not as interested in going over as someone like Brunson look at these alt points yeah 25 plus for Kyrie Irving’s actually over 2 to one plus 205 that’s a heck of a number you know yeah considering his prop was at 25 plus early in the series and it was 23 and a half in game three like that’s that’s a heck of a number yeah that seems interesting to me I think if you believe that he bounces back here if you believe that he tries to take control then I think you’re probably at least sprinkling some on that too if you want to just play the yeah like whatever 75% of the money on the normal probably 25% on the on the on the high end here because that’s a it’s going to have to sh he’s just going to shift his philosophy and how he’s playing so and he makes that shift we know Kyrie Irving can go for 40 yep you know Kyrie Irving can do that it’s in his the range of outcomes for guys like himim is is the interesting thing because there’s we can’t say that about a lot of guys right we can’t sit here and say well you know it’s it’s it’s it’s within the realm of possibility he goes for 40 that’s just not in the range of outcomes for most of these guys it is for a guy like Kyrie IR yeah it is if you look at that that Dallas team there’s two guys that can go for 30 that’s it period it’s Kyrie it’s luuka and then you have the role players that yeah maybe you have a PJ washingt who sprinkles in 25 every now and then right but it’s anyone going for 30 outside of those two would be surprising Luca’s up at 28 and a half on his player prop for what it’s worth in my little napkin math here if I run the little deal comes out to about 30 and a half for me so I see like a little bit of a little bit of an edge on the over on that for Luca so uh you know again not a huge Edge but maybe if you’re if you just want to fun bet some some sort of same game parlay type deal or something like that to put in I I have him slightly over the 28 and a half I I don’t hate the idea of Luca over 28 and a half Kyrie over 25 plus and you’re getting close to four to one then yeah and and these are in these same game parlays we we understand that they’re not for everyone but they are a way in which you can just take a conviction and have it play out and should that and should that come to fruition then you’re I mean listen we’ve cashed some of these things like small dollars guys we’re not like betting tons of money on these things but like you know we’ve cashed these 16 18 21 to1 ones and things like that off of just saying here’s the game script here’s how this is going to go and if it goes this way then I’m going to I’m going to 21 to one on this thing then you bet you know one tenth of what you usually bet and all of a sudden you’re picking up two units uh I should say this since we only got 40 seconds left in the segment I did bet the under here 209 and a half it’s now down down now down to 209 this series just consistently gotten lower and lower scoring as we’ve gone through it they haven’t made it to 200 points the last two games I think this tends to go under again here so I played the under 209 and a half yeah you should you should probably leave that is something whatever so he’s he’s on the under yeah I’m on the under there we go with all that when we come back let’s head on over to the NHL see what you got going on over there let’s go [Music] this is the handle with Matt Brown and Mike sumage on Vin the sports Bing Network you’ve heard us talk about it but have you gone to the new von.com why not we’ve sat here BS n over and over and over again we told you how pretty it looks on your computer we said how much it works phenomenally on your phone it is absolutely beautiful it is seamless over there on your mobile phone so we know that’s where you’re looking at all the stuff these days anyway so go in see the Best Bets and the splits and the Articles and the odds that we have over there we even some betting tools and of course all the betting guides that we put out for all of the major betting events throughout the course of the calendar it’s your One Stop Shop for all the information the betting the Best Bets obviously what everyone wants they’re over there one page easy sortable on that one SL pick you can see who’s hot who’s not and fade or play with your favorite favorite on our talent BS i n.com Matt Brown Mike s coming to you here on vison DraftKings Network on a Saturday counting down to the pness actually counting down to race 11 because I’m going to hit the trifect I decided on that I’m looking forward to that Grooms all business baby threw in some uh thre in that that really good name Trifecta that you actually uh gave the thumbs up on yes I I like the 12 and the E there as well 1812 in the 11th that’s mat trifect of the fan of the the good names which is always a a good thing for me yeah it’s a good thing for me so we do have a hockey game to talk about as well Vancouver Canucks Edmonton Oilers this is minus 192 Oilers at home here over the Canucks plus 160 if you like Vancouver six is our total shaded towards the over I can never bet the Oilers here not minus 192 if you want to bet the Oilers lay the puck and a half take the plus 130 but 192 is just it’s a wild score for the way that this Series has played out I mentioned the Oilers lack of ability to score five on five it’s been a huge issue for them in this series and the Canucks just not taking a ton of penalties and if they’re able to stay out of the box it makes the makes the Oilers offense’s life really difficult and you go back you watch game five this is an Oilers team that is supposed to be better than the Canucks the Canucks were significant ific L better that entire game Oilers had an early 2 to1 lead we go to the third period And it you were waiting for the Canucks to be able to score a goal when it was tied at two you were just expecting it to come because of how they were able to dominate the play now we flip over to home ICE Advantage here for the Oilers which is definitely an edge here it’s going to be rocking there up in Rogers Center uh in Edmonton but I just I can’t get behind this Oilers team I can’t do it and so for me it’s either Canucks plus 150 I do like the under six here you can get minus 102 there first period unders this has been the one series we’ve not consistently seen them go under but you’re getting plus 105 here again if Vancouver stays out of the box and Edmonton’s forced to play five on five and if you think about the game scripts here where Edmonton down three to2 you would expect a big push from the Oilers at home early so for instance if you like first of five shots I think Edmonton good play there minus 125 right now on draftkings.com but if Edmonton has to play five on five during that first 10-minute push and they’re not able to get a goal the first period under at plus 105 I think it’s a good number as well so I’m going to play the under here under 6- 102 and the first period under plus 105 as well as Edmonton first of five shots minus 125 is that Vancouver logo like an angry dolphin what is that it’s a it’s an angry dolphin yeah so they’re the Vancouver Canucks and the old logo was so much better so much better it was this this skate that had some orange and some yellow and some are angry right I it’s a whale I think not a dolphin yeah I mean it it whatever it it’s not obvious as to what it is I can say that it was one of the worst logo changes in sports they they should never have gone away from the really cool old school like if if you remember paval Beret when he was playing for the Canucks which I know that was a big part of your childhood that those jerseys were awesome Trevor Linden Beret that those are the the the Canucks jerseys we need back Vancouver can close this thing out uh if they are able to get that road win here today I will say this and I I want Edmonton to win this series because if you look at at the pricing of these two teams Edmonton going to be much more evenly priced with Dallas I like Dallas no matter which team comes out of this right because the the advantage Vancouver has over Edmonton they don’t have over Dallas which is the five on five play uh I will be laying the game at goal and a half or game and a half with Dallas if it’s Dallas Vancouver and I will be backing the brink stroke up if it’s Dallas and Edmonton there and you heard it here first look at that uh so we did a special over here on Wednesday the schedule release for the NFL which the NFL just owns the sports calendar yes they do what done is they space everything out so that you’re always looking forward to something we’re coming off the draft now we’re coming into the schedule and then we’re going to go into mini camp and they were it’s basically just a year-long thing now with the NFL and they’re not playing nice anymore when we look at this schedule they’re like hey college football we’re going to go ahead and take that day oh NBA we’ll take Christmas they they just they just taking there’s a land grab from the NFL yeah so we were able to uh to kind of talk through a lot of our thoughts here and you know I think it’s worth just kind of overall whenever we we look at the schedule we already knew which teams were likely to have some some tough stretches some tough schedules some easy schedules along the way one of the things that did confirm for you and I we’ve talked about how we think that this Falcons team should not only win that division but win that division fairly easily with the addition of Kirk Cousins the talent that was already there on that offensive side of the ball the defense played pretty well last year was the only reason they won any games and then you look at how poor the rest of the teams are in that division then the schedule comes out and you start to look and you say man I kind of like this Falcons team even better not only is it the easiest schedule in the NFL but the way that things kind of broke for them it really does drive home that I feel pretty good about all of my Falcon money that I have invested in all of this right now and you know even a Hey listen even a major injured Kurt Cousins because they drafted you know they’re good they’re golden doesn’t matter the quarterback of the future yeah it’s already it’s already there could be could be in week four that’s the future I don’t even have to say like barring it no Kurt Cousins go to yeah they’re good they’ve got it it’s going to be really interesting to see how they how the books them so I I’m happy with all my Falcons bets but I don’t love that stretch week two week three right they’re at Philadelphia then they have Kansas City at home but the the Kansas City games off short rest as well so you’ve got a Philly team that’s going to be rested coming off the week one game yes they’re coming back from from uh Brazil but they act have an extra day of rest or two days rest playing Friday versus Sunday and then you’ve got that short week against the Chiefs there Monday Night Football into Sunday Night Football even though the Chiefs g game is at home I think it’s going to be really interesting to see what happens if this Falcons team starts one and two or0 and three cuz I don’t think you’re going to see as big of an adjustment from the books because when you look at the rest of that schedule after week three their toughest game is what uh vers Cowboys right other than that pretty much green Puffs and their Road games are at the Raiders at the commanders at the Vikings at the Saints at the Bucks like that it’s not hard games going on the road every tough game is at home and you’d expect they’re going to be able to play pretty well I’m excited about the at the Vikings week 14 that’ll be fun to see Kurt Cousins go back home but if this number goes let’s say the win total goes to nine if they’re one and two after week three don’t you just just back it up I mean just huge bet on the over yeah I mean I’m already on the over I would come back in if this thing dipped down I would because like you mentioned you’re you’re actually kind of from a betting standpoint you’re getting a break by the fact that those hard games are up front MH you get the losses out of the way maybe you get an adjustment there you come in you take advantage of that you pound it I really do like this Falcons team I think number is betable now but it might even get a better number obviously if they somehow stun the Eagles on the road or beat the Chiefs whatever you’re never going to see anything close to this again that’s why I think it’s important to at least have some equity in the now and we both have division win tickets we took them before free agency period so we both I think we’re plus one like they’re going to get someone to play quarterback somebody they got two someone who knew they’re going get someone to play quarterback and I I would still come in on over n and a half right now if I don’t have any any equity in the Falcons right now but I would not bet it for the full amount I would be I would be waiting till week three to then come back in over the top with maybe even more money like you you go a half unit right now and then you put a full unit in especially if they’re 1 and two or 0 and three cuz if they’re 0 and three that number is going to be eight and a half and I still like the over if they’re one and two I think it’s going to be nine um or nine and a half with juice to the under and I like the over in both of those scenarios as well one of the other very interesting schedules out there is a team that is going to be getting a ton of press at least early on and that’s the New York Jets the Jets do open against San Francisco but after that Mike it is the Titans it is the Patriots it is the Broncos and then it is the Vikings in theory depending on how these teams go about it it could be year two will Levis rookie quarterback rookie quarterback rookie quarterback in week three four and five depending on how this breaks for this Jets team you could be looking at a 4 inone Jets team heading into a game against the bills there in week six on Monday Night Football and if they were able to steal one on the road to start the season you could be looking at an undefeated Jets team heading into that week six game against the bills on Monday Night Football it is a pretty soft opening for this team and here’s the here’s the deal even if they don’t get Drake May in week three it’s going to be jacobe brassette right and we both believe it’s going to be Nicks we both believe it’s going to be McCarthy so likely to get two rookie quarterbacks and maybe brassette and then a year two will Levis pretty good opening there for the Jets it is but I also think there’s some some snfo when we’re talking about this as well so you like yes you’re correct on the rookie quarterbacks the first five games that sets up really well but the problem here too I mean they’re going to play three games in 17 days to start the season that’s not ideal especially when you have a quarterback coming off an Achilles injury and if they’re going to go to London in week five so that that kind of makes it a little bit of funky scheduling there then they’ve got a short week against the Steelers they’ve got a short week against the Texans the the scheduling didn’t do them any favors they’ve got seven games in Prive time in the first 11 weeks the teams are easy the spots are not and and the question is will any of the spots cost them especially when they’re all piled into the front part of the season now the back half of the Season you’re like oh it’s got to be easy then no back half’s tough Seattle Dolphins twice bills that’s not easy it’s kind of one of those things if you’re a Jets buyer you need to buy now if you’re a Jets fader wait and fade come week six and see how it looks like after you get through those Patriots Broncos and Vikings games maybe you get this win total adjusted way up and you can come in and really take advantage of what does at least get a little bit tougher when we come back let’s do some good news bad news a [Music]
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1 comment
Hi everyone please am new to football game betting, please what is the meaning of "Handicap" (e.g 1.89)?