I know, I know: "Dumb writers making clickbait articles in the offseason."

But it's the July doldrums and I thought this could be worth discussing: Can CD3 simultaneously be overpaid and be a significant part of an improved defense.

Articles:

NFL’s All-Overpaid Team 2024: Worst contracts, including bad deals for Browns, Chiefs, & Bears

The Lions didn't make their veteran corner spending work last season, so they got aggressive again, trading for the former Buccaneer. However, he's been shaky with durability issues of late, and there's a good chance rookie first-round Terrion Arnold will be their better starter.

Ranking NFL's 6 most improved defenses for 2024: Eagles, Lions make secondary charge

Key additions: EDGE Marcus Davenport, DT D.J. Reader, CB Carlton Davis, CB Terrion Arnold, CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr…They continued to get more help up front and decided to get more aggressive on the back end with more reliable defensive backs…The Lions succeeded in raising their playmaking quotient with Arnold in the first round and Davis via trade.

My opinion is that is that if we see 2023 CD3 (12 games, 8.8 yards/target, 61% completion against), it's probably an overpay both in terms of salary and draft capital. But even if we see something closer to 2022 production (13 games, 6.7 yards/target, 56% completion against) he'd be on the higher end of the pay scale per production but maybe not a true overpay.

Plus I think a lot of the value we are getting from CD3 is coming from his mentoring of young CBs and the way he practices against our WRs, particularly Jamo.

16 comments

  1. I have no idea if he’s actually over-paid or not, but these things are not mutually exclusive. Guys can be both over-paid and an improvement over what was there previously.

  2. Two things can be true.

    Carlton Davis is overpaid

    The defense should be massively improved.

    I’m not overly concerned with Davis salary cause we had the the space and a huge need at the position and it’s only a 1 year deal.

    Don’t love giving a 3rd for him, but at the same time we’re not the 2020 lions where 3rd round picks are impact players. If he helps the defense take a leap forward that’s way more value than any third round pick would give and with or corner depth now he might be a great stop gap while the youngsters develop.

  3. I mean, yes? If you’re a 6/10 replacing a 2/10 and paid like an 8/10, you’re both a major improvement and overpaid, no?

  4. Honestly that’s exactly what I think. The Lions are paying the tail end of a contract which is rarely expected to be paid so that’s not even the value he was signed to the Bucs for. A third rounder is also expensive but if he’s a true CB1 that’s worth it.

    He’s definitely hitting cap for more than he’d normally be expected to but overall the defense should be improved by a good amount with him on the roster.

  6. >But it’s the July doldrums and I thought this could be worth discussing: Can CD3 simultaneously be overpaid *and* be a significant part of an improved defense.

    Yes, I don’t think they are mutually exclusive. I would agree that Davis is slightly overpaid (9th highest cap hit among CBs this year), but even if he’s a 10M corner making 14M, that’s going to be a *significant* improvement over a 3M corner making 10M.

  7. I don’t think these are inconsistent statements at all.

    Who cares if we’re overpaying for Davis? They’re in win now mode and should have been willing to overpay for areas of distinct need. Now, if he plays well, he’ll probably get an extension and it will all be worth it.

  8. Overpayment is honestly one of the more overrated things to be concerned about. If the guy is good, who cares how much he gets. If a guy is bad, well it doesn’t matter how much he gets any amount is not worth it. The only concern is how it affects your ability to spend in other areas which the Davis contract clearly did not

  9. He likely is overpaid.

    It doesn’t remotely have any bearing on our cap this year so it’s 100% irrelevant.

    Players who are overpaid while their team struggled to finagle their cap are the only real overpay issues

  10. The point of having great salary moves overall is *precisely* so you can make a few overpays that nonetheless improve positions of need.

  11. How is davis over paid? He make significant less then the elite corners (other than the ones who are on rookie contracts)

    He’s paid pretty in par with the other good but not elite corners.

  12. He’s simultaneously overpaid and on a very team friendly deal. He’s paid like a top 10 CB, but probably isn’t one. And since it’s only 1 year it doesn’t matter and the contract is a great deal for the lions.

  13. Trey Flowers was an improvement over the guy that was in that position before him. Holy hell was he overpaid.

  14. His cap hit this year for the lions is a little over $4 mil. They restructured his contract. So not an overpay in 2024 for the lions. Yes that cap hit was moved to void years but they can carry over this years extra cap space and the cap is going up. They did this on purpose because they have a long term cap management plan.

  15. He’s not paid for what he has done in the past, he’s paid for he will do for us this season.

    CD is only a bust if he is absolute dogshit this year.

    And even if he is, it’s a 1 year deal.

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