How Should You Bet the Atlanta Falcons in the 2024-25 NFL Season?
let’s talk some Atlanta Falcons and if you’ve been watching this program you know me and Mike early and often on this Falcons team uh I have a lot of NFC South Exposure to them uh fortunately all plus money because we were of the mindset that they were going to upgrade at the quarterback position no matter what so we able to get in when it was still really nice plus money thinking that maybe they’d get Justin Fields actually Mike not necessarily that it was going to be KK cousins and then once the smoke started coming in on Kirk Cousins get back in a little bit more a little bit more a little bit more so uh lots of NFC South Exposure for me at plus money now at DraftKings a lot of people see and I think what you and I saw that it’s clearly at least on paper the best team they’re now down to minus 115 to win the NFC South so again a a team that went out and and not only picked up Kurt Cousins but you start to look around a little bit it was a it was a roster that was already like really good and then they trade for Rond Del Moore to give him another weapon there they signed Darnell money to get him another weapon as well and so now you look at this offense and you’re going okay Bean Robinson and Kyle Pitts and Drake London and Rond Del Moore and Darnell money and so there’s a lot to like on that they signed quarterback Antonio Hamilton as well in the off season so all of that from a free agency standpoint and then came the draft Mike in which they did the most puzzling draft pick in in my memory you know I’ve been paying attention to the draft for quite a while Michael pennick at number eight overall never even crossed my mind after they paid Kurt Cousins the money that they paid him but that’s what they did they took a defensive tackle in the second round and took an edge rusher in the third round here for the Falcons team so despite the really crazy weird number eight overall pick I still love this team and I think they are easily the the class of this division yeah you see some teams in the NBA try and do this and kind of cross Generations right you’re you’re trying to have the great team now but also still build for the future the Falcons decide to do that in the draft pretty surprising you mentioned look I I got plus money on them in the division as well now we’re sitting at minus 115 I don’t love the price from a divisional perspective here but I do like this Falcons team quite a bit and that was only bolstered when the schedule came out this Falcons team has the easiest schedule on paper in the NFL and that’s if you look at win percentage last year that’s if you look at the wins Market this year either way this is still the easiest schedule you’ve get a you get a division where the Panthers are not going to be very good we’re going to talk about the Bucks we’re going to talk about the Saints and why we’re probably down on them a little more than some people uh in this division as well so that sets up well for the Falcons if I want to take a shot with Atlanta Matt I want to look at the bell curve and let’s say things go very right for this Falcons team how can you capture some plus money in those instances where they do go out and they’re able to wildly overe exceed expectations so right now the wind total is sitting at 9 and a half I looked at some adjusted win totals here for the Falcons and so right now over 11 and 1 12 wins sitting at plus 240 on DraftKings number one seed in the NFC which probably takes what 13 14 games Matt to win the NFC number one seed plus 750 there for Atlanta as well do I think they’re the best team in the NFC no do I think they can take advantage of this schedule and win 13 games yeah I think that is 100% possible and if they do they could end up there at the number one seat in the NFC at plus 750 yeah I I’m going to be definitely dabbling in the alt wins Market as well for this Falcons team so long as Kurt Cousins stays ight you start to look what they have kind of up and down the board here Mike and yeah there’s maybe one weak spot on that offensive line but pretty much across the board you’re going to have a pretty good unit so long as they stay healthy we talked about The Playmakers already you’ve got Drake London you got KY pittz you got bejan Robinson you go out and get a wide receiver to and a slot receiver in Mooney and more so really nothing more you could ask for on the offensive side of the ball and then you look on the defensive side in which they played pretty good defense side the only reason they were even in games at all last year right was because was because of this defense and you still have the the core of that defense they go out make a couple of Acquisitions as well and they’re going to need to rush the passer at least a little bit better but you you got a pretty solid corner you got a really good uh you got a really good safety in baits Passing League so we know that’s going Grady Jared on the inside you got all these guys there’s just it’s just really hard to kind of nitpick this team specifically in this division with the competition they’re going to be going up against you mentioned Bates I thought he was one of the best offseason signings on the defensive side of the football last year he played phenomenal for them should be able to continue to Anchor that secondary there just aren’t a lot of holes and they’re in a division where there’s a lot of holes with every other team inside that division you’d expect they’re going to be able to go 5- one or six and0 in division really be able to to shoot themselves up the leaderboard there and we’ve talked about this in past episodes of the handle as well Matt this is one of those teams where I have a calendar invite after week three I want to know what the win total is going to be after week three you start out against the Steelers which not a hard game but not an easy game either then you’re at the Eagles versus the Chiefs if you’re one and two or 0 and three which both aren’t aren’t out of the realm of possibility for a team that we think can go over a N9 and a half win total what’s that win total sitting at after week three do you get an eight and a half do you get a n and a half with plus money to the over what’s the division price let’s say that Carolina or the Saints go out and go two- one and all of a sudden do you get plus money again on this Falcons team in division I think keeping an eye after week three is important on these markets because of the way the schedule starts out yeah you start to look at the NFC number one seed odds 3 to1 on the ners 5 and 1 half to one on the Eagles 6 to1 on the Lions Cowboys at 7 to one those all make sense right I mean ners loaded easy division Eagles loaded we I like the eagles you like the eagles the Lions we we love the Lions I get all that 7 and a half to one on the Falcons though NFC number one seed Mike you start there and and and like you said you you put that in the account and listen is there a world that exists in which maybe the Eagles and Cowboys beat up on each other and the commanders are a little bit better than we think I think that world exists is there a world that exists in which the Niners which like we said maybe the Rams maybe the Seahawks are a little bit better than people are giving them credit for and maybe the Niners take at least a tiny step back they did lose a lot of Personnel in the offseason I mean it’s not like this is the same team that’s going to be returning Lions will be tough I it’s hard again to nitpick the Lions but it it is not out of the realm of possibility here at all for this Falcon team to end up the number one seed should they live up to the expectations that that we have on them well you mentioned the Lions I mean you got the Packers and the Bears in that division as well right I mean so that at least you have tough games inside of the division for the Lions I think we both think they’re going to be very good but you can make some pretty good arguments as to why this Falcons team has a very real track to be able to win the NFC at that plus 750 price and you only have to look back a couple years I I the Eagles two years ago had a very easy schedule and were able to propel themselves to the number one seed I believe they were either 10 or 11 to one that year to be able to get that number one seat in the NFC and it was all schedule dependent it wasn’t because people going into the season thought they were going to be the best team no they had the weakest schedule and this is another example where you’ve got a team that has a lot of talent that may not be as good as the top teams in the NFC they’re not as on paper they’re not as good as San Francisco as Detroit as the Eagles but that schedule is a huge differentiator for them here only three games that are actually tough that’s the Cowboys that’s the Eagles that we referenced and the Chiefs outside of that they have they should be favored every single game can they reel off that many games can they win 14 games who knows if they take one of those three 13 or 14 games is a real possibility for a team that is really not playing that much and has the talent to win yeah and you know kurk cousin this is the one that’s that’s been lingering out there for me is putting an MVP ticket in on on Kirk Cousins it’s a dome team you go on the road you play in the dome and New Orleans it’s Carolina it’s Tampa like bad weather games not really in your Division if you get you know if you get the potential out of this offense I mean with bejan Robinson and Pitts and London and you add Mooney and you add Moore and all that like if you remember what he was doing last year Mike whenever he went down that that Vikings offense was rolling and putting up massive massive numbers I understand it’s not the same thing have it’s not Justin Jefferson out there but look Drake London’s PR good Kyle Pitts is pretty good you’ve got you’ve seen flashes from Moore and from Mooney and maybe a change of scenery good for them I’ve been teetering on putting a cousin’s MVP ticket in the account it’s 35 to1 I just need him to play himself into the conversation yeah I don’t know if I can get there on the MVP ticket but I I I do think that that taking shots with some of these guys to the over because of what we saw with Arthur Smith in that offense the last year not a bad idea either if you want Pitts touchdowns over if you want bejon touchdowns over I think those are are solid plays in this Falcon side well
Hosts of VSiN’s “The Handle,” Matt Brown and Mike Somich, preview the Atlanta Falcons’ 2024-25 season from a betting perspective… How do Kirk Cousins and the Falcons fare in the NFC South? Can Cousins lead them to the playoffs coming off of injury? Let us know what you think about Matt and Mike’s takes in the comments!
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2 comments
Taking the over 9.5 wins.
they have like 0 pass rush