>“This is not the definitive projection, it’s within kinda the middle of the bell curve here… It’s equally likely seemingly they might be eight and nine as they could be six and 11 and below,” said Andrew Callahan on the latest episode of the Pats Interference Podcast.
>“You can’t expect a rookie quarterback to be good. That’s why we’re low on Chicago than the conventional wisdom, that’s why we’re lower on Indianapolis, cause Anthony Richardson is effectively a rookie…and if Drake Maye plays you can’t expect him to be good,” said Aaron Schatz.
Also, big edit to the title: Schatz isn’t “predicting it,” it’s based on analytical projections.
better than I would have thought tbh.
Seems like a reasonable projection.
People are freaking out over the Vegas over/unders, but they are neglecting the fact that this line is set to incent the betting public. If the betting line were at 7, I’d take the under. At the current 4.5, I’m taking the over.
We had eight one-score losses last year. I think the doom and gloom of us being one of the worst two teams in the league next year is a little silly. The defense is still strong, and even if the offense makes a small improvement, this team will easily be better than last year.
There were a couple of games that were close and the Pats could have won if not for bad QB play. I think 6 games is achievable considering the defense is still in place, Gonzo and Judon are healthy. Jacoby is an improvement in the sense that he isn’t known for throwing bone headed interceptions, plus Bourne will be back, the rookies hopefully can be at least rotation players.
Lol
I mean yeah, DVOA believes in regression, and looks at how well our D played last year despite the huge AGL and predicts the offense has to get better so pulls up to below .500.
Of course, DVOA doesn’t see coaching changes nor completely neglecting the left tackle position which should drag down any prediction for the team.
The roster gets evaluated in these speculations but they always underestimate the coaching staff changes. They are practically all rookies in their roles. Factor in the average NCBF value and apply that across the board and I’m still thinking the 4.5 wins line is spot on.
So one thing I always kind of roll my eyes at is the mindset of “we improved our areas of weakness and the areas we were good last season will obviously stay the same or improve”..
Fact is, it often doesn’t work like that and there are so many unknowns when it comes to this team.
We no longer have Bill who was a pretty damn good game planner and also pretty damn good with in game adjustments. The jury is completely out on whether this new staff will be able to do these things effectively. I could honestly envision a scenario where we win a couple games early then get “figured out” in a sense and not sniff the win column for an extended period of time.
We can project things based on the roster all we want but until we see how this team is coached and how the players are responding, we really have no idea what to expect.
9 comments
A couple of notable excerpts:
>“This is not the definitive projection, it’s within kinda the middle of the bell curve here… It’s equally likely seemingly they might be eight and nine as they could be six and 11 and below,” said Andrew Callahan on the latest episode of the Pats Interference Podcast.
>“You can’t expect a rookie quarterback to be good. That’s why we’re low on Chicago than the conventional wisdom, that’s why we’re lower on Indianapolis, cause Anthony Richardson is effectively a rookie…and if Drake Maye plays you can’t expect him to be good,” said Aaron Schatz.
Also, big edit to the title: Schatz isn’t “predicting it,” it’s based on analytical projections.
better than I would have thought tbh.
Seems like a reasonable projection.
People are freaking out over the Vegas over/unders, but they are neglecting the fact that this line is set to incent the betting public. If the betting line were at 7, I’d take the under. At the current 4.5, I’m taking the over.
We had eight one-score losses last year. I think the doom and gloom of us being one of the worst two teams in the league next year is a little silly. The defense is still strong, and even if the offense makes a small improvement, this team will easily be better than last year.
There were a couple of games that were close and the Pats could have won if not for bad QB play. I think 6 games is achievable considering the defense is still in place, Gonzo and Judon are healthy. Jacoby is an improvement in the sense that he isn’t known for throwing bone headed interceptions, plus Bourne will be back, the rookies hopefully can be at least rotation players.
Lol
I mean yeah, DVOA believes in regression, and looks at how well our D played last year despite the huge AGL and predicts the offense has to get better so pulls up to below .500.
Of course, DVOA doesn’t see coaching changes nor completely neglecting the left tackle position which should drag down any prediction for the team.
The roster gets evaluated in these speculations but they always underestimate the coaching staff changes. They are practically all rookies in their roles. Factor in the average NCBF value and apply that across the board and I’m still thinking the 4.5 wins line is spot on.
So one thing I always kind of roll my eyes at is the mindset of “we improved our areas of weakness and the areas we were good last season will obviously stay the same or improve”..
Fact is, it often doesn’t work like that and there are so many unknowns when it comes to this team.
We no longer have Bill who was a pretty damn good game planner and also pretty damn good with in game adjustments. The jury is completely out on whether this new staff will be able to do these things effectively. I could honestly envision a scenario where we win a couple games early then get “figured out” in a sense and not sniff the win column for an extended period of time.
We can project things based on the roster all we want but until we see how this team is coached and how the players are responding, we really have no idea what to expect.