Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
Erik Jones
Texas Fantasy Outlook – At Texas, I would view Erik Jones as a high-teens driver who might have marginal upside, which is actually optimistic. High-speed 1.5-mile tracks aren’t exactly a strength and since 2024 on this track type, Jones has a 23.2 average finish and ranks 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. At Las Vegas, Jones finished 27th (17.3 average running position, 22nd best Total Speed Ranking).
Texas Track History – Texas was once a great track for Erik Jones but with the current competitive state of the #43, pump the brakes. At Texas in 9 of his 13 races, he’s finished in the top 12 so he’s certainly quite capable here. In the Next Gen, Jones ranks 11th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings but his average finish is 18.3. Last year, Jones finished 19th, had a 20.6 average running position and ranked 23rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Jones did run well at some portions of the race, but you can chalk that up to pit strategy. In 2023, Jones was a legit top 3 performer. In the race, Jones started 12th, finished 2nd in Stage #2, was in 2nd as late as 30 to go but then late bad pit strategy shuffled him back to the mid-teens late in the race only for him to get caught up in a “Big One” which doomed him to a 30th. In the race, Jones had the 3rd best Green Flag Speed and ranked 5th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Jones started 27th, had an 11.8 average running position and then finished 6th overall. Additionally, Jones had the 11th best Green Flag Speed and the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Jones finished 12th.
Austin Dillon
Texas Fantasy Outlook – Texas has been a great track for Austin Dillon by his standards. Dillon has a pit strategy win in 2020 and over the last nine races minus 2023 where he crashed his average finish is 11.0. Dillon even snuck in a top ten last year, so he still seems to have his knack for the “Lone Star State”, despite him overall being a pretty bad driver at high-speed 1.5’s. At high-speed 1.5’s since 2024, Dillon has the 30th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and his average finish is 22.4.
Texas Track History – As you read above, Austin Dillon has done a great job at grinding out good results at Texas for an extended period of time. Last year, Dillon didn’t run all that great for much of the race but when the checkered flag waved, Dillon finished 8th. Additionally, Dillon had a 21.9 average running position and ranked 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings, so that should tell you something about how wild the race was. In 2023, nobody had a shorter race than Dillon and he finished last following the opening green flag pit cycle when he lost his wheel and crashed. On lap 35 just prior to his demise, Dillon was in 13th, so perhaps he was going to have a respectable showing but you never know. In 2022, Dillon finished 17th, had a 12.1 average running position and ranked 15th for Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. Over the three races prior to that, Dillon had results of 14th, 11th and 1st.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Texas Fantasy Outlook – At Texas, I think Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is likely a high-teens to low 20’s driver. High-speed 1.5-mile tracks aren’t exactly bright spots for Stenhouse and since 2024 at these venues, Stenhouse has a 22.9 average finish and ranks 24th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. To start the season on this track type at Las Vegas, Stenhouse finished 18th.
Texas Track History – Texas hasn’t been a bright spot for Stenhouse recently and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished 16th or worse. In the Next Gen, Stenhouse has a 19.7 average finish and ranks 19th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last year, Stenhouse finished 23rd, had a 19.1 average running position and ranked 15th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Stenhouse did get into the wall on lap 253 while running in 19th which brought out a caution, so his race wasn’t exactly incident free. In 2023, Stenhouse got his first Texas top ten. In the race, Stenhouse finished 9th but take note of his 22.5 average running position and 27th best Total Speed Ranking. With 50 to go, Stenhouse was in 21st but all the late mayhem moved him forward. In 2022, Stenhouse looked pretty good, but he also crashed late which led to his 27th. In the race, Stenhouse led 23 laps and was running in 3rd when he crashed on lap 298. Also, earlier in the race he had a harmless spin. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Stenhouse ranked 24th.
Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Texas Wurth 400 Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier
Related