Is Franz Wagner a 1st Rounder? Orlando Magic Dynasty and More!

Is Franz Wagner a 1st Rounder? Orlando Magic Dynasty and More!

[Music] Far too often we see team seasons derailed by injuries, and that was the case this season with the Orlando Magic. Uh they have a lot of talent, but when not one but two all-star caliber players, deal with oblique injuries that sideline them for months, and then you have arguably your third best player miss basically the second half of the season and have to undergo knee surgery. It’s just not a recipe for success yet. Still ended up as the seven seed. Uh won in the playin tournament and then lost to the Celtics in five games, but still put up a fight for most of that series. Uh clearly Orlando has something to build on, something to build with, but they do still have plenty of questions that need answering. They do finally, I mean hopefully finally, they need to add shooting. They’ve tried um but it hasn’t solved the issue that has been a lack of spacing around their stars. Um so how can they address that? They can address it in the draft. They can address it via trade, maybe even in free agency. We’ll see how they do it. But one thing is for certain, Orlando will be adding some shooting this off season. Um but they do have stars. they have people players to build around. Palo Beno and Fran Vagner are at the center of it and then other pieces that may or may not pan out still. I mean, Jaylen Suggs, I think, is probably the guy that we’re most confident in. Um, being a really good player because he already is one, but then there’s still some other younger guys that we’re still trying to figure that out. Before we talk about them and break down the magic, I want to remind you guys that bet online is the world’s most trusted betting platform and your number one source for all your sports betting action. Baseball season is in full swing. We’ve got the NBA and NHL playoffs going on. They have more ways to stay in on the action with the latest odds, news, and scores, and even live in-game betting while the games are being played. With the largest selection of odds on everything from the MLB to the NHL and UFC, Bet Online remains the number one online source for all your sports wagering info. In between the games, you can head over to the Bet Online Casino with all the top Vegas style games, including poker and a live casino. Bet Online, the game starts here. All right, Orlando, the magic. Let’s talk about what they have to work with. So, right now we are a little over a month away from the draft. They’re going to have four picks. They can definitely trade up. They can trade out. They can make four picks and add four rookies. I don’t know if there’s space for four rookies in this lineup. So, they may end up making some trades instead of wasting picks. Maybe they’ll just make the picks and stashing players in the G-League. Who knows what’s going to end up happening, but right now they have picks 16, 25, 46, and 57. Um, and then they don’t really have too much too many extra picks. A lot of I guess the ones that they have are in the second round. They do like Washington believes Washington will have the rights to swap picks with the Magic. They’re not going to finish ahead of the Magic and have a reason to swap. So, it’s basically normal picks for Orlando moving forward. As far as their roster situation, they have a handful of players that have team options this year. That includes Mo Vagner, brother of France Vagner, Gary Harris, Cory Joseph, and Caleb Houston. Uh Fran Vagner’s extension kicks in this year. So, that’s less cap space as does Jaylen Suggs extension. And then they still have basically everybody else under contract. Um, another year before they haven’t given Paulo an extension, but they will another year before that’ll kick in. Still have Cole Anthony for another year potentially too. Kavius Cwell Pope will be entering year two of his contract. Jonathan Isaac uh, still has a contract. So most of this team is going to be back next year barring a trade. and they still as of right now have four picks that they need to add to this team. So they have things to work with, moves to make, but obviously most of this team is going to come down to the success of the guys with the superstar upside. That’s Paulo Beno and Fran Vagar. And let’s talk about Paulo first. another strong season aside from the absence uh due to the oblique injury. 25.9 points, 7.5 rebounds per game, 4.8 assists. Obviously, still not maybe not even obviously, maybe you don’t know this, not a great category league player. Under just under two threes per game, subpar field goal percentage, subpar free throw percentage, plenty of turnovers, not many defensive stats. phenomenal in points leagues and has the upside to be really good in category leagues. I think that’s the part that makes this frustrating is that maybe not even frustrating is not even the right word, but he’s I mean because he’s still young. He’ll be 23 shortly after the season starts, but we know we know he can be better. Maybe not expecting the defensive stats to go up by much. I mean8 steals, 6 blocks, not expecting much. Him and Fran Vagner are the lead playmakers. So the three turnovers expected probably not going anywhere, but I think it’s the efficiency that I that he can improve. I mean, if you’re watching this, you can see his listing on NBA.com. 610250. That’s a solid dude. Very strong player. And yet shooting 45.2% from the floor, 32% from threes, and shooting 5.9 threes per game, 72.7% from the free throw line on 8.4 attempts. An improved free throw percentage would be great. I think that’s something that he’s capable of doing. Hopefully he get, but I’m not expecting him to become an 85% free throw shooter. Hopefully he can get into the high 70s at some point. But I think it’s part of it is the shots he’s shooting and then part of it is that’s you know what that’s most of it. It’s the shot that Sash that he’s shooting. Six threes per game at 32%. We’ll probably dial that back a little bit. I’m not totally critical of shooting threes because I think just being a threat from beyond the arc opens up so much for his game as a driver. Um, but it’s not his most efficient shot. So, he either needs to get more efficient, which I think that’s going to be his goal regardless, or maybe shoot less of them. Obviously, it’s a basically a different era of basketball, but we saw a season when LeBron and Dwight were in Miami where they basically just they just started the year off just not shooting threes because they were like, you know what, neither of us is phenomenal three-point shooter. We are good at getting to the rim. Let’s do that. Not saying Paulo needs to not shoot threes again, but maybe we can uh look at getting better shots that the three players who shot the most threes per game in Orlando. This is a fun stat. Jaylen Suggs shot the most at 6.9 per game, 31.4%. Paulo and Fron each shot 5.9 threes per game. We talked about Palace shooting 32%. Fron’s at 29 and a half percent. I know there was a report about Fron saying that the oblique injury, like even though he was healed, it’s still bothering his shot, missing of a shot. And I think just watching him in the in the playoffs, it doesn’t take like a a keen eye to see that his shot looked a little weird. There’s almost like a little hitch in it. Interesting stuff. I think another interesting stat, the player who shoots the most shots from 16 to 24 feet in the NBA, which I mean, if we’re talking about analytics, quote unquote, that would emphasize more threes and layups, I think the the mid-range shot is still valuable, but I think it takes a level of efficiency for it to make sense. and for it to be a truly I guess like a go-to shot. But I think it’s also a great isolation shot or game on the line shot because it’s I guess the shot the defense would least expect you to shoot. Court analytics trying to get to the rim. Cut that off. Okay, let’s get to the mid-range. Okay, let’s pump figure three. Get a mid-range from 16 to 24 sheep. from 16 to 24 ft. Dancer shot 4.8 shots per game during the playoffs made 33.3% of them. That’s I mean one to see an uptick in mid-range shots per game. He only shot 2.2 two during the regular season at 36.6 uh% and he shot 4.2 mid-range per game at 42.9%. Like the mid-range shot is again so it’s a shot that it takes a specific player to hit it efficiently. So, among the players that shot at least 4.2, we’ll say at least as many mid-range shots as Berro, he had he shot the worst percentage at 42.9 from 8 to 16 feet. That is uh Embiid, Darren Fox, Dejante Murray, Luca Donuch, Jiren Jackson, Bam Adabio, Kawhi Leonard all shot more at a higher percentage but still under 50%. And then players like Jaylen Brunson, Devin Booker, Brandon Ingram, Demar De Rozan, SGA, and KD shot more and shot over 50%. From 16 to 24 feet. I mean, you’re talking about Demar De Rozan as the guy who shoots the most mid-range shots from 16 to 24 feet made 44.9% of them. Ben Carro shot made 36.6% of those. the only player that shot as many or more mid-range shots from 16 to 24 feet than Paulo and shot a lower percent. I don’t remember exactly what I said there. Uh 35.5% was Paul George made 35.5% from 16 to 24 feet. Big Hero made 36.6 being compared to Paul George this past season isn’t something we’re hoping for. Um, among players that shot at least one and a half mid-range per game, Bank Hero was the worst percentage. The only player that looking shot at least like one mid-range shot per game and shot worse than Pella was or other than Paul George was Dejante Murray and he was I mean he had one of the worst shooting seasons of his career. And then down closer to the players that shot exactly one mid-range shot per game, talking Benedict Matan, Caleb Martin, Andrew Wiggins, Bascal Seakum, they shot lower percentages, but shot one per game. There’s a reason. All that is to be said is that Palanchero is 610 250 and I think he shoots too many mid-range shots and I don’t think that that’s a uncommon opinion and it is a shot that you know you can look at the percentages but like you can tell like it is a shot he can hit but it’s not the most efficient shot and I think that’s what quoteunquote analytics is is that yeah sure he can hit that shot and with the game on the line. If he hits it, like you’re totally fine with that and it’s probably a good shot with the game on the line if the defense is really packing the paint, running off the three-point line, getting mid-range shot, like having that shot is valuable 100%. But there weren’t many players that shot as often, shot as many mid-ranges as Paulo and shot it as inefficiently as Paulo. That’s that’s the issue that we run into here. Uh when there’s a Magic Hawks game and and George Niang was like, “Hey man, like yeah, keep shooting those mid-range shots. We’ll see where that gets you.” So he’s not wrong with that. So could we see honestly one the number one thing I want to see is Paulo getting to the ring even more? That’s not to say he didn’t. He took seven and a half shots per game from less than eight feet uh during the regular season. Let’s let’s narrow this down. Uh in the restricted area pulling trying to figure this um shot 5.3 shots per game dur in the restricted area during the regular season. Made 66.1% of those. That’s a far more efficient shot than making what? This is just NBA.com’s definition of the mid-range shot. He made 41.7% of those at 4.7 attempts per game. And then in the paint non-restricted area shots here, I’m gonna we’ll do this in case you’re watching this and you can see what I’m messing with on NBA.com. So, you can see the mid-range shots. So, and if you’re listening to this, I’m just going to describe it best as possible. NBA.com’s definition of the mid-range. Um, Dear shot 8.3 per game, made 45.8%. Brandon Ingram 5.6 per game, made 45.5%. So, the only those are the only two players that shot more mid-ranges than Paulo and they both hit a higher percentage. And then in the paint, non-restricted area, so more or less semi- mid-range shots, still shot 41.3%. Po did he wasn’t quite among the leaders. I mean, there’s plenty of players that shot more of those, but he was subpar from there. You can see 66.1% from from the paint from the restricted area, 5.3 attempts per game. That’s up among the leaders, but it’s not like top five or anything like that. But a lot of those guys either shot similar percentages or some of them even shot better. But a lot of those were big bigs that shot better. So Giannis was over 70%, Mark Williams, Anthony Davis, Zubots, Jokic, Moley, Jaylen Johnson, uh Rudy Goar, Daniel Gaffer, Jaylen Duran, Walker K. We’re talking about players that made over 70% from the restricted area while shooting as many or more than Paulo, Jared Allen, Jakurle. The outliers are Jaylen Johnson, LeBron James, Christian Brown. Christian Brown shooting and Amed Thompson as well. Dylan Brown shooting just fast break dunks basically from Jokic. So if we’re looking at the shots that we want to see Paulo taking, I’d like to see more in the restricted area. I mean we’re just if you’re still if you’re looking at the screen you can watch. Number two in restricted area shots per game was Zion. Paulo made a higher percentage of shots from the restricted area than Zion Williamson by 2%. Zion took nine and a half per game. Paulo is a better shooter than Zion. So, I’m not saying Palis shoot significantly fewer perimeter shots in Zion, but the emphasis on getting to the rim is what I’d like what I’d like to see more of from Paulo and then still having the threat of the mid-range and and three-point size. So, shooting those is still a good thing because it gives you the threat and then just an improvement in those areas. But those are things that like obviously just as he gets older and continues to work, he will improve. But the emphasis on getting to the rim, I think opens things up. But it is hard to do that with no perimeter shooting. So now we’re here. Okay, here’s the problem Orlando needs to solve. We need more spacing for this player who is an incredible driver, incredibly efficient from the restricted area that has had to settle for mid-range and three-point shots. and also likes to shoot those shots. Let’s be real. It’s not just, oh man, I can’t get to the rim. Have to shoot the mid-range. It’s also like, oh, can’t get to the rim. Guess I got to shoot a mid-range. So, that happens. That’s cool. It’s his thing. More of an emphasis on getting to the rim, I think, opens things up for the offense, but partial blame needs to be put on the front office for not adding more shooting. I mean, they added Contavius Cwell Pope, but they need more. How do they do that? We’ll see. They need to make the moves, though. All right, enough about Paulo. Let’s talk about Bronze Vagner, the other player with all-star upside that probably would have made the All-Star game if he didn’t have the oblique injury and was on a run to make to win most improved player or could have won. I don’t know. Would he? That’s an interesting one. Would Fran Vagner have won most improved player if he not only played enough games but also played the way he was the beginning of the season? Were his numbers enough of an improvement? He was a number eight overall pick, but so was Dyson Daniels. It’s interesting. I don’t know. We’ll never know. But he averaged 24.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists over a steel. Uh field goal percentage still wasn’t great. And we talked about three-point percentage earlier. Second straight season under 30%. Still made 1.7 threes per game as a careerhigh. There’s definitely still room for Fron to get better, but when we’re talking about fantasy, his best performances were when Paulo was off the floor. We’re talking about the Magic as a team. It is not a bad thing to have Fran Vagner and Paulo Beno on the same team. It’s very difficult to stop, especially when you add more shooting around them and continue to add. I mean, they’re already incredibly def credible defensively, but adding more shooting around them opens things up for both of them on offense. They’re both good creators. It’s a good thing. I don’t think we’ll ever see Fron hit the ceiling in fantasy that we know he can hit as long as he’s sharing the floor with Paulo Beno. That’s not saying I’m not gonna be a fantasy player that’s like, “Well, the Magic need to trade France or the Magic need to trade trade pal. You can only have one blah blah blah.” Like, I want to see my fantasy players do. Like, that’s no, it’s not what we’re here to do. We’re here to say this is what the best basketball decision is. Here’s how we need to react in fantasy because of it. So, if they’re going to continue to build around these two, that’s a good thing. France can still be a very good fantasy player. I don’t think he’s going to hit elite status while sharing the floor. And he, you know, like we talked about earlier in this episode, his extension is set to hit going to keep him tied to the team for four more years. So, entering year like age 27 season or age 28, he’ll either be up for a new contract or be a free agent. And maybe this is looking way too far in the future to truly project. But maybe at that point, if things haven’t worked out flawlessly, maybe at that point he’s even been traded if things don’t work out. But at that point, maybe he could leave and sign with a different team. This is entirely entire speculation. Like that could happen. And maybe we see him on a new end as more of a number one option as opposed to a 1B option. see him play even better. I don’t I don’t know what things are going to look like four or five years from now, but I do know that Fran Vogner is going to be capped playing next palero. Feel pretty confident in that. And again, that’s okay from a team perspective because he still was very good at times even with Powell in the lineup, but it wasn’t as good as what we saw in November, early December before his injury. Nothing like that. Naughty could like he was consistently scoring 30, dishing out dimes at the same time, getting rebounds, hitting, like doing everything. Part of, you know, maybe limited success after he returned was the injury. Part of it is sharing the floor pal. Would love to see him prove me wrong this upcoming season, but I think I have to. It’s one of those situations where yes in if I’m ranking doing dynasty rankings I could say okay France Vagner the individual should be top 25 top 20 with the situation the fact that him and Pal are sharing the floor I got to bump him down a few spots because even if the situation changes I’m not that’s a a low or if the situation changes that is a low I guess chance of that happening to the point where Fron is going to be able to capitalize on the upside that he has. So the likely scenario that happens probably like a 90% chance is that Fran Vogner shares the floor with palanker over the next four to five years. That limits what he can do even if I know that he is talented enough to be better than that. Situations change quickly though. I’ll always say that. All right, let’s talk about what the rest of this Magic roster looks like because they do have number of different pieces that have upside, but maybe not as exciting as they were a couple years ago. It’s the the difference in the phase of we’re early in the rebuild. Maybe this player can be as good as this player or this player is going to turn out to be like this all-star level player. everybody. It’s the the unknown, the possibilities, the it it could be anything could be in this box. It could even be a boat kind of thing. Um or like to fully lay it out, hopefully caught the reference, but you could have this boat or you could have this box. This box could be anything. It could even be a boat. It’s like what could it be? I don’t know. But now that we kind of know what these players look like a little bit more, it’s not quite as exciting. It’s more like okay, you need to figure this thing out. You need to be what we thought you could be or you got to go and we want someone else in here. I think Jaylen Suggs is pretty safely the third best player on this team, third most valuable asset in fantasy. We just need him to be healthier than he was this past season. Uh the continued improvement as a shooter is great. Hit uh two threes a game for the second straight season. Played 75 games two years ago. Outside of that, so far in his career, he’s played 48, 53, 75, and then 35 games. Um, this past season, averaged 16.2 points, four rebounds, 3.7 assists, one and a half steals, almost a block, 2.2 threes. All those career highs. Field goal percentage is back down. Shot 41% after shooting 47.1% the year before, but everything else has proved improved. Top 109 cat leagues. Um, basically if he’s healthy, he’s going to continue to be really solid 3 and D player, but that kind of undersells what he does. He’s an incredible defender. He’s not quite as heavy on the ball because Fron and Paulo are the main creators, but still enough on the ball to get some assists. He also hasn’t played 30 minutes per game in a season yet. So maybe we can see that and see some numbers improve in that regard, but health is kind of the main thing for him. I think that what he provides is really valuable in category leagues and he fits well with Fran and Paulo. You just gota the better he gets as a shooter, the better his thing is going to work because he can continue to be an elite perimeter defender. And if he can space the floor, just continue to get better at that, then things work out well for the team. I mean, we talked about it earlier. He hit 2.2 per game, but was shooting just above 30%. So if he can get to the point where he’s with the amount he’s shooting, if he’s making closer to 37 38% that’s closer to three threes per game. Not quite, but closer. That’s good for fantasy. That’s good for spacing for Orlando. We just need to see that type of progression from him or have someone else in there that can in the starting lineup. But we’ll see. I’m I’m pretty confident that Suggs is going to continue to start um and any sort of improvement will just help. But we really do need him to be healthier than he was this year and then he has been the last for most of his career outside of one season. Anthony Black, former number six overall pick, uh was exciting coming out of college and it was mostly just because the amount of steals that he got. I mean, there was other things to be excited about, but the steals that he was able to get in college, the steel rate was insanely high, which made him an attractive fantasy option. Average half a seal per game as a rookie and only 1.1 this past season. I think if we’re looking at players that could be I think I’ve I don’t remember when I said this or where I said it, but the quoteunquote next Dyson Daniels. I don’t think that anybody’s going to have that type of leap, but Anthony Black does kind of project to have the same stat set, same type same type of production. Um, you know, inefficient field goal percentage, steals upside, playmaking upside, big guard, like so he can hopefully get some rebounds, three per game in 23.8 minutes. So, could we see Anthony Black if he were to get an extra 10 minutes per game and get up to 34 minutes like Dyson Daniels was at this season? Could we see him get to 14 points, six re five, six rebounds, four, five assists, almost two steals, a block per game. Could we see something like that type of jump? Like, sure. Is that going to work in Orlando where they’re needing a floor spacing guard? probably not. So, I think it’s going to prevent him from having any sort of massive leap um with the way this team is set up. They really need to add shooting and Anthony Black doesn’t feel that. Could they trade Anthony Black in some sort of package to bring in a more legitimate shooting option? They could. I I think I’m trying not sure exactly what that looks like. [Music] Um, we can try and look at a few teams here to see if there’s anybody that would make sense, but I’m not really thinking of anybody where a shooting. Okay. Well, Anthony Simons, I remember talking about him with the Portland episode. So, maybe Anthony Black in some sort of package for Anthony Simons, but then in Portland, not really sure if he gets that same same opportunity there either with the amount of talent that they have. So, it’s interesting. I think that the talent is there and I think he’s a player to stash and continue to hang on to. Former number six overall pick, like I said, just waiting on his opportunity to break out. I don’t really see the path to that happening this year though, unfortunately. But, we’re just going to keep holding out hope that Anthony Black will eventually get that opportunity. Okay. some of the other guys on this team. The center the center spot is weird. I think it’s something that clearly needs to be upgraded because they’ve had this trio the last two years. Wendell Carter, Mo Vagner, and Goabatz all having strong stretches at times, all having different strengths. Um, it’s an interesting method, but I think when where they get this, I don’t really know, but the like the floor spacing big is something that they need a good shooter, but also somebody that can still defend and rebound because I think the issue you run into is, okay, Wendell Carter and Movagner can space the floor, but neither is as good defensively as Goku Batad. None of these guys are dominant rebounders, have had stretches but not dominant. So trying to make it all work and it with what they had, I think it worked okay. But I think I’d like to see them figure like truly figure out the center position. I think that along with uh adding more spacing, they kind of go hand in hand and important. They’re both important to the future of this team. But I don’t feel confident in any of them being super valuable in Dynasty Leagues. If I were to pick one, I would say Wendell Carter simply because he’s had the most opportunity. It’s like kind of widely regarded as the better as the best center or I guess not widely regarded, but like kind of the reputation of it. Um, and he was the most recent starter, but but Todd stretch this past season was also very strong. I don’t feel great about any of them. Uh Tristan D Silva, guy they drafted this past season. I think he’s more of a solid role player than a really good fantasy player. I think he had some stretches this year because of the injuries, but he was drafted as an older rookie to be ready to come in and play a role. Saw more of an opportunity than they were probably expecting him to as a rookie, but I’m not confident that he’s got superstar upside or anything like that. Jonathan Isaac, we know what he is. He’s a fantasy stud with more injury issues and limitations than anybody else in the NBA. Hopefully, like we’d love to see him stay healthy. we can he can wreak havoc defensively when he is and still space the floor, but we need to uh not not too confident that uh he’s ever going to get to that point where he’s just super healthy all the time and he’ll always be somewhat limited. So, um, and then some of the other younger upside guys. Jet Howard, former lottery pick. I get the idea of what he was, and I was a little excited about him when he was drafted, but hasn’t been great so far. I just I don’t think that there’s a massive commitment to making sure that he’s an important piece of the future because I don’t think he’s shown enough to deserve that. um I guess still has the upside to be a really good shooter, but even then what is a really good fantasy season look like for Jet Howard? I think if he becomes the shooter that they I guess drafted him and tending for him to be, then he can hit three threes per game, four threes per game. That’s an insane season. But is he even good enough defensively for that to make sense for them to give him that opportunity? Because they pride themselves on their defense. Is he good enough to fit into the rotation to get the opportunity to make three threes per game? Not optimistic at this point. Caleb Houston’s another young guy with some upside. Uh has had some shooting flashes, but not super optimistic about him either. They do have and I think what’s the intriguing part is so many players that are former first round picks, former lottery picks. Honestly, I didn’t even mention Cole Anthony who really good sixth man. I think um interesting in fantasy, has some like really good games and then follows it up with really poor shooting nights. Uh the field goal percentage is never going to be great, but he’s a good rebounder for a small guard. This is a very unique skill set and I think is a really good reserve, but not a player you want as a starter. But Orlando has all these pieces I mentioned and they have four picks this year. They have ammo to make moves. Will they fully commit to that and say, “Oh, no, no, no. We’re we’re not just going to give this another year to see who develops.” Like, we’re going to take action. Which is what management oftentimes needs to do. some sort of action. How do we package four picks this year with certain young players on our roster to maybe bring in players that are ready to help this team built around Paulo Bankro and France Vagner win? Now, how did the Magic do that? We’ll see um what types of moves they can make. But that’s going to do it for this episode of the Young Man Squad Fantasy Basketball Podcast. Uh you can follow me on Twitter at no Ruben22. You can like, subscribe, comment. If you feel like you liked it, then let me know. That would be very helpful. Uh, but that’s going to do it for this episode and I will see you guys next time.

Injuries really took a toll on Orlando’s season, but that doesn’t mean they should just run things back and hope for health. What can they do to improve and truly contend in the East? Noah breaks it down!

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