Pre-Game Report: Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars | Round 3, Game 3

Pre-Game Report: Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars | Round 3, Game 3

Hello hockey fans. Austin here with a special edition of the pregame report between the Oilers and Stars. Game three is actually tomorrow. Now, I’m recording this as of 7:30 p.m. local time on Saturday. And why the heck am I uploading this on Saturday night instead of Sunday morning like I normally would on a game day? Well, that’s because uh the NHL decided, you know what, Western Conference final, we’re going to stick a 100 p.m. local time matinea game in the middle of this series. So, because of the quick turnaround for the Oilers and Stars, I figured I would just get the pregame report out as early as I could allow everyone to maybe check this thing out um before the game tomorrow. If you end up watching it the night that I uploaded, which is Saturday, that’s awesome. If you end up seeing this on game day, of course, that’s also great. If you enjoyed today’s pregame report, make sure to hit that like button. And if you really like it and you’re not yet subscribed to the channel, which you should be because we are celebrating 6,000 subscribers. We just hit the milestone today. Thank you all so much. I’ll be doing some gifted membership giveaways tonight and uh I’m excited about that. I’m or I guess not tonight, tomorrow cuz the game’s tomorrow, right? See, my brain my brain’s all out of sorts now. Hopefully the Oilers and Stars brains are not out of sorts with this matinea game. I’m expecting a high octane matchup. The Oilers have not played at home since game four against the Vegas Golden Knights and uh they’re probably itching to play in front of their home fans here. The Dallas Stars, of course, they have lost home ice advantage momentarily, but they have an opportunity just like they did last year in Edmonton. If you take game three, they go up 2-1 in the series and they kind of get themselves in that driver’s seat. But there’s a lot of hockey to play. This series is now a best of five. And uh we’re only getting started here, folks. We’re only getting started with the excitement and uh the the the chaos that is the Stanley Cup playoffs. So, in the pregame report, I’ll be going over the projected lineups, the playoff stats for both teams, the keys to the game, players to watch, and of course, the score predictions. So, let me know all of your players to watch. Let me know your score prediction. Let me know all of your thoughts in the comments section below. You know the drill, and let’s uh discuss the projected lineups for the Emmonton Oilers. Now, because today was an off day, they were traveling today back home to Alberta. both teams. We don’t know what the exact lineup is going to look like until the uh pregame warm-up tomorrow. So, I’m assuming Chris Knobblock likely sticks with his current formation. Now, if you look on the screen, you see some numbers beside all the lines and defense pairs. Why did I do that? Well, I wanted to give more context for how certain players play together and how certain lines play together. So, the top line for uh Edmonton, Newton Hopkins, McDavid, and Heyman in the postseason at five on five, they hold a 66.85 85 expected goal share. That basically means they are completely dominating play when those three are on the ice. They’re they’re generating a lot of chances. They’re generating a lot of looks. And uh we know they’re not scoring a whole bunch right now. Nan Hopkins, of course, he has goals on the power play in two consecutive games. You love that for the Nooj Conor McDavid. He’s still stuck on only three goals in the postseason, but according to Mike Kelly, he is he is due. Mike Kelly, of course, with Sport Logic. I’ve shown some of his tweets before on the channel. Now, Conor McDavid leads the playoffs in slot shots and inner slot shots. However, he’s he only has three goals. So, this means one of two things is going to happen, especially with how strong McDavid’s metrics are. He’s going to regress positively and the goals are going to start coming in bunches or or he continues to run at a pretty low PDO, which I don’t think is going to happen. Conor McDavid is due. I think Zackman is also due, but Zack Heyman has taken a completely different role in the postseason for Edmonton. Now, of course, the last couple seasons, Zack Heyman has been instrumental in this team’s offense, but his role in this year’s playoffs, and I don’t know if this was a coaching decision or if Zack Heyman went, listen guys, I just got that dog in me. You got to let me run free and do my thing. Zack Heyman is the uh the physical driver of the Edmonton Oilers because he is on the ice for almost 20 minutes a night. He is basically just dumping pucks into corners and laying the body on defenseman, opposing teams defenseman. He did it all series against the Kings, did it all series against the Golden Knights, and he is doing it once again against the Dallas Stars. Zack Heyman has been a wrecking ball and he is causing turnovers. And as a series progresses, the longer a series goes, those types of hits that Zack Heyman is throwing, keep your feet on the ice, Heyman, there’s a couple hits where it definitely looked like he uh he lifts he lifts his feet. He kind of jumps into the hit. He’s He’s got to be careful. The ref’s got to be keeping an eye out for that. There’s a couple times I’ve seen it. They are going to call him for that. Don’t Don’t lift your feet off the ice, Zach. But the longer a series goes, those hits are absolutely punishing on the body. And if he’s doing it 10 times a game, uh let’s say six times to Hasten and six times to Lindell every single game or whatever the situation is, that adds up a lot. And it’s not just him. Of course, the whole team has been physical. Speaking of physicality, you have the second line with Pod Coulson, Dry Cidle, and Casper Kain. As a trio, they control 73% of the expected goal share at five on five. Obviously, very small sample size with these three together. They were only put together in game four against the Golden Knights. But since they’ve been, you know, put together as a line, they are so effective on the forche. They’re great with their puck management and uh their defensive game has also been strong. Of course, dry cidle, we just we want to avoid those uh turns on the half wall and then giving the puck up when you’re trying to play it back to your defenseman. Teams know what you’re doing, man. Just manage the puck a little better. Honestly, for Dry Cidle, I’d love it if you just threw random junk on to Jake Ainger. There’s been a ton of uh rebounds and Odder’s been a little bit leaky. He’s made some really big saves in the series, but game two against the Stars, the Oilers had ample opportunity to score more than just the three goals that they did. Uh, credit to the Stars defense for clearing the crease and the blue paint. And credit Jay God for reacting after a puck gets behind him. There was a decent amount of pucks that were just sitting there available if an Oiler was there. And luckily for the Stars, the Oilers couldn’t bury a few more opportunities. Uh, Pud Coulson and Kappan specifically, of course, Kain were not looking for offense. We do love that he won that series against the Golden Knights in overtime in game five, but this line together is effective. They keep the opposing team in their own zone when they’re on the ice and look for Dry Cidle to maybe be in a shutdown line against Mo Rantin. He went up against the Eel line on home ice um in the Vegas series. So I am curious to see how Knoblock puts these players out in their current formation. Now the third line for Edmonton, Evander Kane, Adam Henrique, and Connor Brown. Connor Brown had a goal against Dallas uh in game two. We love that for Connor Brown. He has five goals now in the postseason. Connor playoff Connor Brown is an absolute dog. He has all that dog in him. Uh I would extend Connor Brown. He like whenever the playoffs end, give Connor Brown an extension. Let’s go. Also, still didn’t even get that hat-tick, so I buy his jersey. Come on, Brown. I know you can do it. Uh but this trio, they don’t have great possession or expected goals for percentage metrics. And a lot of that has to do with the fact that Evander Kane and Connor Brown, those are the two guys that don’t really work well together. And the metrics show that, the eye test is showing that I would like if knob block maybe if he put Trent Frederick up there or if he switched Yanmark with Henrique just any kind of change uh or sorry Yanmark with uh with um with Brown and then maybe you have Frederick center that fourth line. I I don’t know what the you know decision would be. Maybe you put Pod Coulson down to the third line, Kane up with Dry Cidle. There’s a lot of wiggle room to tinker with this lineup. And we also don’t know if Matias Ecom is going to be back in the lineup too. If Ekkome is in, do you take any defenseman out or do you run 11 and seven? If you go 11 and seven, well then I’m not too worried about how every line looks because that fourth line, it’s going to be missing one player all the time and you can run McDavid for an extra shift, Dry Cidle for an extra shift. Like there’s going to be looks that different guys can have. So as it currently stands though, Kane, Henrik, and Brown, they just that line needs to get going just a little bit. I know Brown is not at 100% right now. If he’s not at 100%, make a switch. Schnob block get someone else on that line. We’ll see what they do today against the Dallas Stars though. Uh and then the fourth line of course Frederick Yan Mark Perry 44.56 expected goals for percentage. This is a 20inut sample size by the way so I would not even worry about that. They are basically treading water. They are not really a negative or a positive right now. They are leaning towards the negative side though. So hopefully they can kind of get their juices going. Trent Frederick, he’s had moments where he looks really good. He has some moments where he doesn’t look so good. Let’s see what Chris Knobblock has up his sleeve first game on home ice in the series. Now, when we take a look at these defense pairings, oh boy, look at Koulak and Bousard. One of the reasons I was so hard on Chris Knoblock or sorry, Paul Coffee more specifically at keeping these specific defense pairs together and not splitting them up is because look how strong all of their fiveon- metrics are. Pulak with Buchard, they hold a 70.82 an 8-2 expected goals for percentage when they are on the ice together and those two on the ice against Dallas in this series have completely nullified any attempt from the Dallas Stars. The Stars don’t even have a single high danger chance with those two on the ice at five on five. Keep Koulak and Bousard together. Even if at healthy, I like Koulak and Bousard together. Uh on the second pair, you have Nurse with Stetcher. They carry a 65.39 expected goals for percentage since they got put together in game four against the Vegas Golden Knights. They work well. They work very well. They seem to read off each other very well. And Nurse and Ster, they complement each other’s games a lot. Darnell Nurse, he can just settle into his game. It allows him to uh, you know, use a bit of that open ice that Stetcher allows with his physicality and his tenacity. Stcher closes off uh lanes and gaps very, very quickly. And that allows Darnell Nurse to read, react, grab the puck, and then go on transition. Those two players again, keep those two together. And then on the third pair, Jake Walman and John Clingberg. They have, you know, since they’ve been playing together in the playoffs, 62.85 expected goals for percentage as a defense pair. Again, it you look at these three defense pairs and as long as they’re being properly rolled out by Paul Coffee throughout the game at five on five, they work really, really well together. So, if Ekholm is available, and I want to know what you all think, too. Do you go 11 and seven? Do you pull maybe, you know, uh Trent Frederick or Cory Perry out of the lineup? I know Perry has five goals, but I’m just looking at the speed aspect. That’s the only reason I would pull Cory Perry. Just the speed aspect. That’s all. Do you pull it forward, go 11 and seven, or do you insert Echome? And if you insert Echolome, which defenseman do you take out of this formation? Because right now, as it stands, I don’t think anyone really deserves to come out of the lineup. I think it would be very unfair to take Stetcher out of the lineup because he really settles Darnell Nurse down. Now, obviously in an optimal world, Darnell Nurse should not need someone to settle him down. But this is hockey team game. Sometimes certain players work with others. Sometimes certain players don’t. But if you have a combination that is working, I I I don’t know, maybe I’m superstitious. I like keeping these guys together. I want to know what you think. Do you put Ekcom in? Do you go 11 and seven? Who do you take out? I would lean towards, now there’s going to be people who don’t like hearing this. The the one defenseman that I would take out, and it’s not for a lack of ability, and it’s not because they haven’t been playing well. They actually have played way better than I could have ever hoped for in the postseason, would be John Clingberg. I just think Clingberg’s I feel like he would be the odd man out, but because Troy Stcher has been healthy scratched in the past as well, I could see Clingberg or Stetcher coming out. I don’t know who you play Ekholm with if he is reinserted into the lineup. They haven’t even had a a practice with him in the in the rotation yet. So, it’ll be interesting to see. I imagine Ekholm won’t play game three, but by the time you watch this video, that might be uh that might not age well, that statement. And of course, Stuart Skinner is in the crease as the starter for Edmonton. He has three shutouts in his last four starts. And since uh taking over in the Vegas series, he has a sub two goals against average. He has a plus three goal saved above expected and a 927 save percentage. If you take that king series out since he has been reinserted as Edmonton starter, he has won three out of his uh well, how many starts would that be? Three, four, five. Uh he’s three three and three and two. Three and two, I think. I I think that’s what the stats are. Uh but his his numbers have been very very solid. Of course, three shutouts is going to help that. Do I expect shutouts every night that Skinner wins? No. I would I again we’re just asking for a 900 save percentage, right? That’s all we want. 900 save percentage. Skinner is doing his job at five on five. It’s where the penalty kill starts to struggle. And speaking of the penalty kill, let’s talk about the stats for both teams. The normal stats and of course some of the advanced metrics. Dallas is 9 and six in the postseason. They rank second in the playoffs with a 33.3% power play. Their penalty kill rock solid also second 84.3%. The Oilers went 1 for5 in game two and Dallas only had two power play opportunities in game two. So, they’re going to be looking to draw a couple more power plays because they really do rely on it to um you know shift momentum in games. It’s not that they need power plays to win, but the power play is instrumental in their ability to get themselves back into a game as we saw in game one or get themselves going and giving them energy for the five-on-ive play. I notice when Dallas scores on the power play, their five-on-ive game also turns around in a positive way. So, if you’re the Oilers, that penalty kill has to remain solid. You can’t give Dallas anything easy. No stupid penalties. Darnell Nurse looking at you. Cory Perry, looking at you. Don’t take dumb penalties. Stop it. Scold all of you. Goals per game for the Stars, they rank 10th at 2.67. Goals against per game, they rank fourth, 2.93. their expected goals at five on five ranks eighth at 48.71%. High danger chances four ranks seventh and shots for percentage ranks 13th 45.48%. They had a better game at five on five in game two. Uh that third period the Dallas Stars outanced Edmonton 7 to1. The high danger chances were 7 to1 in the third period. Uh in game two for Dallas. If you’re the Oilers and you have a lead in the third, you can’t afford to sit back. Dallas is too good. They are far too strong of a hockey team. They have too much talent and too much depth to sit back and um you know have them come and attack you in waves. Be the Oilers the way you played in the first 40 minutes in game one and the way you played in the first 40 minutes of game two. Can you can you put together that full 60 minutes? Can you do that for a sustained 60? If the Oilers do that, they will have a ton of success in game three and four in Edmonton. Uh speaking of the Oilers as well, they are 9 and4 in the postseason since losing the first two games to the LA Kings. They are 9 and2. So, they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. Their power play ranks seventh at 25%. Very respectable, but I think we all know the power play probably has another level to get to. Their penalty kill ranks 15th, 64.1%. You know what? They went two for two on the kill in game two, I’ll take it. I’ll take any win the team can get. If they can get that penalty kill up to 70% by the end of the series, I would be ecstatic. So, let’s hope that that happens. Uh hopefully they also just stay out of the box as well. Goals per game for the Oilers, they rank fourth, 3.77. Goals against per game, they rank eighth, 3.08. Expected goals forward percentage ranks second. Uh high danger chances for rank second. And shots four percentage ranks third in the postseason. Of course, all these rankings do include teams that have been eliminated. Um so among teams that remain in the playoffs, the Oilers have the best expected goals, best high danger chances, and second best shots for percentage. Now, let’s get to the keys to the game for the Edmonton Oilers. Lay the body. Keep laying the body is what I should have wrote. Uh the Oilers have been extremely physical. They had 50 hits in game two. They out hit the Dallas Stars in game one. Uh and a lot of people will argue, well, if you’re out hitting your opponent, that means you don’t have the puck as much. the Oilers for I mean for 40 minutes in game one, 40 minutes in game two, they controlled play at five on five and they were being more physical because you are dumping the puck into their corner. You’re dumping and chasing and then you were hitting guys. The Oilers have also been very stingy in the neutral zone. They’re not allowing Dallas to get those attacks off the rush. Dallas likes to use their speed. They like to attack on transition. And the Oilers are stepping up not only in the neutral zone, but their own blue line. And when the puck goes into their corner as well, they’re also hitting the body. So, keep playing the body if you’re Edmonton. Dallas is not an overly physical team. And if you can take advantage of that, you know, look at Carolina and Florida right now that in that series, Florida is an incredibly physical team. And Carolina isn’t. And sometimes you need that physicality to control the pace of the game and also put into the minds of the opposing team when they have the puck. They better move it quickly because someone is going to be coming right at them. There’s no space to do anything with the puck. No time to make a move. You got to be moving it. I like Edmonton’s physical style right now. It’s not what they did in the regular season, but they’re doing what they need to do to win now, and that’s what I care about. Uh number two for Edmonton, of course, beating off the home crowd. Anyone that is going to Rogers Place tonight, you make sure that you hit a level that Rogers Place has never seen before for sound. Blow the roof off of that building uh uh tomorrow afternoon or this afternoon if you’re watching this on game day. Seriously, Oilers fans, you are unbelievable. You’re the best fans in the league. You’re the loudest fans in the league. Um I’m pretty sure my ears are still ringing from game four against the LA Kings. Make the Dallas Stars feel that pressure. Get on top of them. You are essentially the seventh player on the ice for Edmonton. You have the five skaters in your goalie. So that’s six Edmonton fans. You are the seventh skater for the Oilers. You have the ability to really weigh it into the Dallas Stars and also feed constant energy to the players. If feeds off of your energy, which I know you’re all going to bring, they’re going to have a great game. And number three, I’ve already stated it a few times, no dumb penalties. No dumb penalties. Don’t do it. Nurse, Perry, Kane, I’m looking at all three of you. You, you three stooges are the ones that are usually taking the dumb penalties. So, uh, if you’re going to take a penalty, has to be worth it. Has to be something, you know, are you taking away scoring chance or is it just an after whistle scrum like Cory Perry? You grab a guy by the jersey and throw him down. Don’t do that. For the Dallas Stars, their keys to the game number one, they need someone other than Rantin to score. And, and I guess I shouldn’t say score. They do have guys that have been putting the puck in the net. Uh, Sean has four goals. They have guys who have scored. They need someone other than Rantin to drive the bus though. Miko Rantin is an unbelievable talent and the Oilers have done a good job so far at kind of limiting his time and space. He’s not getting the same shots and looks that he had in the in previous series. And uh I think there’s some credit that has to be given to the Oilers defense. But also for Rantinon as well, he is a player that when he’s on his game, he’s unstoppable and he will find his game before the end of the series. Don’t worry, he is due to explode. But Dallas, until he can get going on offense, they need someone else in that lineup to really drive the bus, bring everyone with them, and try and find some extra depth, especially at five on five. They need five on- five production. They have been held at bay in this series at even strength. They of course um scored an empty netter in game one and they got one go two goals at five on five in game one. So they have two goals inund like 100 or so minutes at five on five. Obviously that’s not good enough. You need to produce a little bit more five on five. And for Dallas, if they can do that, obviously they are in a great position to win the hockey game. And uh Steuart Skinner, his three wins in the playoffs were all shut out. So if you can get one goal on Stew, maybe you can get five or six because that seems to be what happens. If he’s not getting a shut out, he’s given up five or six goals. Five on five production. And of course, uh, number three for the Stars get the first goal. Dallas, of course, they did come back in game one, and that is a credit to them. They utilized their, um, their their killer instinct on the power play, and then they, uh, you know, continued to push even at five on five. Um, but if Dallas gets behind for a third straight game, it allows the Oilers to settle into their own game and it allows them to attack off of the rush. It allows Edmonton to dictate the pace of play for Dallas. When they got that lead in the third period against Edmonton, the Oilers had nothing. They had absolutely nothing going. They couldn’t get any good looks. Dallas locked it down. They have the ability to lock it down when they have the lead. If you’re Dallas, get the lead. Now, my players to watch. Number one for Edmonton. I was going to go Conor McDavid, but you know what? I’m going to go Leon Dryidle. He has been up and down in this series in terms of his defensive play. Mostly good. But for Leon, I’m curious to see if Chris Knobblock is utilizing him in a checking role just like he was against Vegas or if they’re going to try and get Didle out against some of the um you know bottom six players of the Dallas Stars and try and produce offense and maybe put McDavid against the higherend talent for the Stars. Uh I shouldn’t say higherend talent, the uh you know the the players that play the most on Dallas. Everyone in Dallas is a very good player. They have great depth. Uh and for the Dallas Stars, I’m looking at Wyatt Johnston. Now, Johnston is an abysmal minus5 in the postseason. He has eight points. Um, but it’s just I think Wyatt Johnston has a lot more to give right now. And if Rupe Hints is not going to play, we don’t know if he’s going to be in the lineup or not. They need someone else to step up. Wyatt Johnston, he is young, he’s talented, he’s skilled, he’s he has all the talent in the world, but he needs to start helping out at five on five. And I have a feeling why Johnston uh is going to have some success tonight. Now, that leads us to our score prediction. What the heck is the score prediction going to be? Well, game one, I predicted a Stars win. They won. Game two, I predicted an Oilers win. The Oilers won. And guess what? I am going to go with a big Oilers win for game three. My prediction is going to be 5-3 Edmonton with the happy face. You’ve loved to see it. Hopefully, it comes true. I like Edmonton’s chances. I’m feeling good. I am putting the positive energy out there. Uh, and uh, I’m I’m just excited for the game. If you want to tune in to the live stream at 100 p.m. uh, local time for the game, absolutely tune in. I live stream during every single playoff game. Cannot wait. It’s going to be a blast. I’m excited to hear that Edmonton crowd once again. You are all absolutely deafening, even in my headphones when I’m watching the broadcast on SportsNet. It’s going to be a great game. Edmonton has a terrific opportunity to go up 2-1 in the series. keep advantage of that home ice that you have now that you split in Dallas and uh really put the pressure on the Stars. If gets out to an early lead, I like their chances. Let’s see if they can get the job done in game three. Let’s go Oilers. Tell them that you love them before the game tonight. And as always, fight like a kid. Fight like Ben. Let’s go Oilers. We’ll see you soon.

The Edmonton Oilers return home after getting the series split in Dallas with a 3-0 shutout in Game 2. Connor McDavid & Leon Draisaitl continue to play well and help produce offense as the rest of the team and the depth scoring look to take advantage of home ice this afternoon at Roger’s Place! Austin Hockey has the projected lineups, stats, keys to the game, and more in today’s Game 3 Preview! #oilers #edmontonoilers #nhl

ICYMI: Game 2 Fan Reaction – https://youtu.be/H4PJeFMhm8c

JOIN the Austin Hockey Bracket Challenge League today! https://bracketchallenge.nhl.com/en/leagues/27376

I have a NEW Channel for Gaming and Extra Stuff: https://www.youtube.com/@UCy8e0uVP9kIlny7eM7O8Hqg

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4K4mprYG72He49k56Eging/join

I am now on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Podcasts!

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9bd98a01-76d5-46f5-a7a3-e3977ce8fea4/the-austin-hockey-podcast

I have a Discord Server! You Can Join Here: https://discord.gg/eSK4Use7CB

Game Over is BACK! Subscribe to the Game Over Edmonton YouTube Channel Here: https://www.youtube.com/@UC9UeHym7B1UTiLdfNXe2MYQ

More Game Over: https://thegameovernetwork.com/

Ben Stelter Foundation Bracelets/Wristbands: https://benstelterfoundation.myshopify.com/
If you don’t want to miss any updates, announcements or video uploads make sure to Subscribe to my channel and follow my socials!

Twitter: https://twitter.com/AHockey1993
Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/austinhockey.bsky.social
TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@AHockey1993
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ahockey1993/
TwitchTV: https://www.twitch.tv/austinhockeytv