"This is 23 but I dont think the data changed much in 2 years. But I think this is a great insight into the hitting philosophy question. Now, data is more nuanced than just a coefficient. Like I think Triples are very valuable. but the overall premise remains. The current focus on stolen bases, low K rate, and high contact doesn’t translate to runs at the same rate as more important factors. Those factors are what the Royals offense is lacking: OBP, ISO, SLG. That’s not to say that high contact is inherently bad, it just needs more.The Royals have been able to hit the ball hard (in 2024), thanks at least in part to the second best average bat speed in baseball, behind only the Yankees. Yet, it hasn’t translated to the same in 2025, with KC ranking 23rd in HardHit% after finishing 7th in 2024. The Royals need to build on that foundation and mix in more players with an ability to hit for ISO. Cags is one, but Rave, Waters, Loftin have all been shuffled in this season and are far from ISO contributors. That’s why the offense got worse without Renfroe/MJ, not better. That’s not to say Renfroe/MJ didn’t need to go, it’s just to say that what replaced them was worse for the overall offensive makeup than first expected. KC has to find a way to either (a) add some real ISO contributors to the lineup to make the contact approach work or… (b) tweak the contact approach to focus on OBP more (patience, low chase). You either have contact hitters who get on base or you have contact hitters who hit for power. If you have neither and just have high contact hitters, you get the worst offense in Major League Baseball. Changing the approach now is essentially waiving the white flag on the season. You don’t do that in season when trying to win. So the Royals are at a fork in the road where they need to add external ISO contributors, or waive the flag."

3 comments

  2. If you hit well all the top numbers go up. If you don’t hit well then it doesn’t correlate to runs. This is one of those, “look at all of these numbers, the secret must be in there” situations. There is no secret. The secret is the roster doesn’t produce enough runs to rank highly offensively.

    You could ask a 9 year old why the Royals don’t score enough runs and they can give you the same answer.

    The Royals tried to add OBP and power. They either failed to land them (corner OF) or didn’t land guys who move the needle (India) in those departments.

    You can’t teach Isbel to hit for power. Or rave, or Loftin, or even Garcia. But you can get higher slug out of them in Kauffman based on doubles and triples. So there’s no “philosophy” discussion there. Its not about changing approach.

    Its an “execution” discussion. The players aren’t reaching their potential in their positive traits to this point. That can change. Will it? Who knows. Hopefully. But the solution remains the same as it was preseason. It has to come from outside the organization.

  3. I think there is some bias in this correlation.

    Example:
    How do you have a high weighted runs created (wRC)? You score runs

    However, it’s clear that if you make meaningful contact, you score runs. I think that’s the biggest problem with the team. Are we up there to not strike out or hit the ball hard?

    Monday night, it was not strike out. Tonight was different.

    I think it’s similar to the pitching transformation a few years ago where we attacked the zone and we aren’t afraid of giving up hits.

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