What does a “gap year” actually look like for the Indiana Pacers? Latest free agency reports

What does a “gap year” actually look like for the Indiana Pacers? Latest free agency reports

[Music] Still no additions for the Indiana Pacers in free for agency and yet more trickling in about what they could be targeting. A new thought on the Miles Turner cycle and I really want to dive into the term gap year for the Pacers and how they should actually approach this season. We’ll get to all of it today on the Locked On Pacers podcast. You are Locked on Pacers, your daily Indiana Pacers podcast, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. What’s up everybody? Happy Friday. Congrats you made it through the week. Hope you can have a fun Fourth of July and welcome in to another edition of the Lockdown Pacers podcast where we of course talk about the Indiana Pacers. As always, my name is Tony East. going to cover the team for Forbes and today so many things. I want to get to a new in the fold uh rumor slashreport about the Pacers offseason plannings that matches up with I would say intuition. Uh a a thing I want to talk about with Miles Turner. Uh maybe the last time we’ll talk about him until some more concrete updates about the reporting with that come out. And then I want to tackle a topic that has been discussed a lot but hasn’t really been expanded on and that is the concept of the word gap year. How should the Pacers actually handle this season? What is plausible for them when it comes to this kind of odd no Hallebertton season? Uh I’ve gotten a lot of comments recently about not having a guest on for a while. I apologize for that. I would like to I record during free for agency super late. It’s 2 a.m. right now. Uh because I am very afraid of like a transaction happening super late in the day and then the podcast I put out is immediately irrelevant or not the most up-to-date information. So that’s why. But I promise when the roster is settled, other people will be back to yap with me. I might do one with a guest over the weekend or Monday about summer league because that is coming up extremely soon. Uh I believe the team practices officially for the first time on Friday. Anyway, let’s talk first about the Miles Turner cycle. Uh and then about the rumor we got or report we got, excuse me, from Jake Fischer late on Thursday night. Uh, I was talking with James Boyd on his podcast, the James Boyd podcast about Miles Turner, his exit from the Pacers and, you know, where things are going, how this could have happened. And it actually was funny to talk through it and talk about the front, you know, at first everybody said, you know, how could this happen? And then, okay, what did the front office do wrong? And then, well, maybe it’s not that bad. And some people didn’t think it was that bad right away. And then people were really bummed because they thought about, you know, well, there’s not a lot of ways to replace him. And then people immediately turned to like, well, Isaiah Jackson’s really good. Like, it was kind of a speedrun from people talking about like this in the five stages of grief, which made me laugh a little bit because when I thought about it today when James and I were talking and we we kind of covered every kind of opinion that fans have had, I realized that there’s one way that would kind of make the Miles Turner cycle that hasn’t been talked about enough to me, right? like the the start of this if you the five stages of Miles for agency was no no way he’s leaving for nothing like how is that possible after all the offseason reporting and then stage two was how did the Pacers let this happen and a lot of talk about like man I I can’t believe the front office got to this point they’re normally a very sharp front office and a lot of fingerpointing or like wondering was like did they offer enough should they have offered more which they had done differently and then everybody this is where most people are now is like maybe this won’t be so bad they could get somebody else the stop gap guys will be good, everything will be great. Some people have moved on to like, wow, this might be really tough. I wonder when people will hit the fifth stage of wondering, which is, is it possible? I don’t know this. No one knows. No one knows anything. There’s too much fingerpointing. I had to take some blame for that because I’ve wondered out loud a lot. Like, what if this is what Miles Turner wanted, right? What if there is nothing the Pacers could have done? And I wonder how that would change the perception of all this. Like, is it possible there was the the answer is Miles Turner wanted to leave? like that that would fit into some parts of what we’ve heard about offers and negotiations, but in the absence of more on there commentary, it’s hard to say that for sure. In the end, it will never get concrete perfect in order offers from every party involved. But I do wonder how that would change the perception of this entire endeavor. And I don’t think it’s it’s impossible to rule that out. Even though it’s not what I think was the final reason for this happening this way, that is certainly not something that I think has been discussed enough. However, uh I wanted to launch that last point in there because I think that is the last angle of this, right? The ownership, the tax part, the Pacers front office consideration part, the miles part, the Bucks part has all been covered pretty well. I don’t think enough has kind of gone into the like, well, maybe that’s just how this ended up this way. And I don’t think that’s the case, but it is possible, right? It it did happen. He’s on another team. Let’s talk about the latest report that matches up with something I talked about yesterday when kind of plotting out the stuff for you to keep an eye on for the rest of the Pacers off seasonason. I said if I was the Pacers, I would have a veterans minimum point guard or another point guard, a table set or a caretaker on the mind as a free agency addition in this off season, right? Not that they like are dying or to have another point guard or have a huge opportunity. I think right now the projection should be that Nehart is the starting one and McConnell is the backup one for the coming season. They just drafted Cam Jones 38th. Maybe he could sprinkle in there. But for reasons I’ll talk about later, I do think you need a table setting veteran or a a just someone who doesn’t mess up that much and makes it so everybody else can be better and explore studio spaces. And I’ll talk more about the reasoning for that later. But in general, even beyond just having someone else, like if McConnell or Mhard get hurt, you have, you know, you’re Cam Jones is your backup like right away. And I don’t know if you’re psyched about that as the Pacers in his rookie season, like you need someone else in that environment, right? You just do. That’s what I thought and said yesterday. Today we got that reporting from Jake Fischer uh in the Steinland newsletter said quote put Indiana on the same list as Milwaukee when it comes to searching for point guard help which should come as a little surprise after Tyres Halbert’s devastating Achilles tear in game seven of the finals right so the Pacers are according to that and according to logic to me searching for point guard assistance I don’t think it’d be somebody who’d either walk into a big role but I mean I could understand if McConnell and Nhard end up playing some amount of time together the Pacers have played three-point guards in their rotation with Halurn on the team that there’s like a 10 minutes per game role potentially available for another guard. I don’t know who would minutes would go away from to make that possible. Um given who we know or can project should be playing for the Pacers next year. I think it’s more likely they’d be signing up for a you’re the third point guard who doesn’t play every night kind of role, but it’s not impossible to me that that could shift a little bit if the Pacers go different routes rotationally and some nights they might play more than others. So there because the role would be small or smaller. I can’t imagine the Pacers want to dump a lot of their somewhat limited resources into this, right? Maybe not much if any of the non-tax mid-level or some of their other potentially available exceptions. I would think they’d like to just get a veterans minimum kind of guy in there. And the thing about the point guard market is there’s a decent number of not embarrassing options out there. Uh, we ran through some of those yesterday if you want to go back and listen to that. Um, the Monte Morris type of player, that kind of tier of talent, you know, that does make sense as an addition, right? Um, and I already thought this, but it may I’m glad to see it in a report. So now I don’t have to just blast out and say it’s my own thought every time and instead I can say, “No, remember there was reporting about this.” Because I do think it makes good sense for them to want a point guard and it will fit into the rest of today’s show. But like even beyond the Morris of it, right, Corey Joseph, Patty Mills, Don Wright, Kyle Lowry, like all these guys are available and a lot of the guys that I’ve said might actually want a role. Like they’re good players and are, you know, competitive dudes. You know, the the sweet spot for the Pacers is probably that, you know, 30-some year old guy who might not be able to get a roll somewhere else and is happy to get guaranteed money uh unless they can offer a role. that might that sweet spot might be something like Jordan Mclofflin campaign uh that kind of tier of player. I quite like Jacon Bannon I’ve always loved because he’s super tall but he’s like 26 like is he going to want to be able to play to try to make more money somewhere else. Markeel Folultz might be in this group. Just keep an eye on those kind of names as free agency progresses because it makes good sense to me that the Pacers should want them if they’re a good stylistic fit or just a low mistakes kind of player. I think that their chances of being on the team would go up. Also, keep that in mind as you think about this. But all the discussion has rightly because the Pacers have a huge void centered haha centered around centers this offseason, especially after Turner’s departure. But I think a little bit more time needs to be spent talking about the point guard spot for the Pacers and having a third vet who can help. And I think that that is a telling launching point into my next discussion. If the Pacers are looking for veteran help at the position that handles the ball the most, it does suggest a little bit that they might have their thoughts on winning next season to the extent that they can. What does that mean? What should their focus be? So much has been put into this term and I think you’ve heard it a lot with the Celtics and the Bucks pre-turner in some ways. Gap year gap year. What does that mean? Obviously with Halurn out, it’s not going to be a continuation of the Pacers previous plot and expectations, but where do they go now? What should next season actually look like? What does gap year mean to me and how should the Pacers handle it? We’ll talk about all that coming up here on Lockdown Pacers. Before we do any of that, let’s talk about game time. We’ve all been there, logging on early, waiting forever for concert tickets to go on sale, only to lose your spot for a show you’ve been dying to see. 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Back here on Lockdown Pacers, thanks for making it your first listen today and every single day. Listen number two. Locked on Knicks, they have a coach, Mike Brown. Welcome to New York. Not a ton of action or signings around the NBA uh on the third. A lot going on though. The 17 trade has been agreed to. That’s going to be crazy to see all the pieces coming together. I think all the individual parts got agreed to and then it just got lumped in with the KD trade. That’ll be fun. Locked on rockets to be explained more about that. Okay, let’s talk about this term and the thinking here. So, there’s been the the word gap here. What people are saying is this is a gap between what you think of as an era or what you think of as what a team can do. Like you’re you’re taking a year off of what your plan was for this era. That’s what I interpret it to mean. And the Tyres Halburn era was two conference finals in a row and now this will probably be a gap from that and then the chance to go back to that level next year. Right. The Celtics are in that position. The Bucks are in that position. The Pelicans not quite but you know Deonte Murray’s out. There’s lots of teams who have faced this before. So, here’s the problem I have for the Pacers here. The question I would start with is is a gap year actually possible? And what I mean by that is I’ve seen suggestions of tanking or dipping down. What does this even look like? Is it is it even possible for this team to tank? Because I don’t think so, right? And so this the the the point people have talked about the 201920 Warriors who got five games of Steph Curry and went 15 and 50 in that bubble year. And here’s a key difference, right? The year before, first of all, that team had KD the year before, but Steph Curry was on that team. His onoff difference was 16 points per 100 possessions. With him on the floor, even with the group they had, they were good, right? They were awful with him off. And even the KD version of that team, right, KD on Curry off was a plus 2.5 team. Curry on KD off was a plus 2.8 team. But either on they were minus 9.5. Remember all those numbers? Points per 100 possessions. That team was great because of their stars and awful otherwise. So it was a lot easier for them to tank because they sucked without their stars on the floor. They end up getting the number two pick which turns into James Weisman who’s become a figure of the Pacers off season. Now, the Pacers are in a different spot when it comes to like taking their gap year to tank, right? If you go back and look at last season, Tyresese Hallebertton on the floor, Pacers net rating plus 3.4. Tyrese Halbertton off their net rating was plus 1.1, like above zero. And he had a bad start to the season, but they found it wasn’t great. Their bench was worse last year than two years ago, but they found success with Seakum plus the bench groups. Their mix and match lineups were particularly pretty good. Their offense takes a hit when Albert leaves the floor. Their defense improves, right? Their net rating was still good. They also lose Miles Turner, so that is also a factor in this. Miles Turner on the floor last year, Pacers net rating plus 4.6. Pacers net rating with Miles Turner off the floor still above zero plus.1. All these numbers per PBP stats, PBP stats. Remember that Warriors number when they were when they tanked was minus N without their guys. The Pacers were plus without them. And you might be thinking there’s some overlap. Hallebertton without Turner. Turner without Hallebertton. Okay, that’s fine. Let’s go through that. Turner Hallebertton together last year was plus 5.6 per 100 possessions. Hallebert and no Turner was minus 1.9. Turner no Hallebertton was plus 0.75. And neither was plus 1.3. Their worst version was minus 1.9. That’s not very good. That still would have been the 20th best net rating in the NBA last year. 10 teams worse than that with the Pacers talent they have right now right this second they are not bad enough to tank they can’t so that’s that’s just numerically that’s not even the spirit of like you go tell Pascalakum that they’re going to be bad for a year right remember this net rating with both Miles Turner and Tyres Halburn off the floor which the Pacers might have for every single game next year this is 1100 minutes of time we’re talking about the Pacers net rating was plus 1.26. Okay, that’s decent. That would have ranked 14th in the NBA last year. The Pacers finished 13th in net rating last year, by the way. That would have finished 14th. The Lakers had the 14th best net rating last year at plus 1.2. The expected win loss of the Lakers based on their net rating was 44 and 38. It’s not unreasonable to say that given the numbers we know of from last season, the Pacers could have been something like that, a 38 to 44 win team, a 500 team without Hallebertton or Turner, right? How can that be a like how do you handle that? That would have been sixth in the East, 44 wins, right? With neither baked in. That’s still a playoff level team. That is the base you have to start from for any discussion about how the Pacers handled this season. Obviously, they’re worse, much worse. And baked into those numbers is that Hallebertton started the season quite bad. Like I think the on-off difference for him is much more drastic than the numbers say. But they did have that year 25 games, a third of their season basically last year where he was substandard and he would admit that, right? And that but at his best or at the Pacers best last season, that gap was much wider. That’s not a perfectly fair description that I’m giving, but the offc court net ratings are still technically the same the whole year, right? And the offc court numbers are what we’re focused on in that they were still decent in those moments. So, they’re still potentially, especially in this Eastern Conference, a playoff level team. tanking. Yes, they got their pick back, but tanking is almost in that environment with the amount of talent that they have next to impossible to get lower than like the 10th worst record or something unless they trade away players. Now, I’m not going to sit here and say there aren’t people who think they should do that, right? Some people think they should. Uh that seems silly and short-sighted to me because the season right after exists and Tyres Huburn will be back. Um, so they could knock their pick down like somewhat. Like think back to 2022 23. That team was actually decent to start the season, right? They were 23 and 18 halfway through their season that year. On December 9th, they were the four seed. On January 10th, they were the fifth seed, right? Like for months to start the season, they were decent. And then they went 12 and 29 across their last 41. Some guys were hurt, some guys got traded, blah blah blah, right? You can knock your pick lower if you go that route. That got them to the sixth pick that year, right? Okay, maybe that’s something, but they have more talent than that team by a mile. So, the pick manipulation, if that happened this year, would probably be like knocking down from like 14 to 11 or something. So, that’s a part problem with that plan. The other problem is the East stinks. Holy smokes. The Eastern Conference is terrible. Even with shifting of powers in the conference, the Bulls won’t be very good. The Nets won’t be very good. The Hornets won’t be very good. The Wizards won’t be very good. Who knows about the Sixers? They should be better. Who knows about the Raptors? They should be better. Like, can the Pacers hold off this Raptors, Sixers, uh, Heat, Magic, whatever? I think the Magic got a lot better, but like, can they hold off those teams? Like in theory they could be in that six through 10 range very easily next year very easily. So they should be a play quality team, maybe even a little better than that because they have talent on their team and they’ll have a full year to figure out how to win with the group they have. So using last year’s numbers and identity isn’t really fair, especially those offcore numbers. Okay, that’s all great. Then what do they do, right? If it’s going to be hard to have a high ceiling, but you have a lot of talent that specifically fits around a star player who’s not playing and your team is too good to stink, but not good enough to go crazy in terms of the wins, what do you do? You have to find the right blend. And that’s what this final segment’s going to be about is how the Pacers should actually attack that reality because a gap year is not tenable to them. Both because I think their onc court talent is too good and because again, you go tell them, right? You go tell Seakkum, Nesmith, Nemhard, all these guys who just battled to get to the finals. You go tell them, “Yeah, you know what guys? I know you signed up for winning. You’re in your prime in a lot of your cases. Too bad. Taking a year off. You can’t do it. Can’t really do it.” So, what should this season be about? Let’s talk about that to close out today’s Locked On Pacers. Back here on Locked on Pacers. Thanks for making us your first listen today and every single day. Jackson Hayes is a Laker again. Uh, not a lot of signings going on right now in the world of the NBA. So, locked on Lakers could be your next listen. They also have DeAndre Aon. Um, some stuff will happen at some point and it will be worth diving into in Pacerland. Uh, okay. So, what’s this season be about? If you can’t stink and you’re not good enough to be awesome, you have to kind of blend both realities. Blend the present and the future. And that doesn’t mean blend the future with your draft pick. Although obviously you should try to make it be as strong as possible. That means blend the future with the future facing players you have on your team. Particularly the guys who could in theory be better in 2026 27 than they would be in 202526. And not better like they fit better with Hallebertton because that’s basically true of everybody but better in like more talent. They will be a more talented player that season. those players, especially ones who will be playing anyway, should play a lot this year, right? You can’t after a final season. I just said this, but you can’t after a final season just go to Pascal and Obie and TJ and all those guys and just punt. You can’t. You can’t. However, you do have in your rotation as the Pacers, Andrew Nehard, Benedict Matherin, Aaron Nith, Ben Shepard, Jarus Walker, possibly young guy or guys at center, possibly Fury. like you can very easily attack a season with development goals and winning goals in a way that you you focus a lot of time on those younger players. I don’t think that’s unreasonable at all. Right? You can give them all a little easier time like Seakum’s minutes drop ever so slightly, right? Keep him fresh for the following season. Same with McConnell. You know, see what seeing what the roster is will be telling if that’s even possible. But I think the goal for the Pacers and how they should attack their next season under this premise of gap year, which is a a fair term. I just think what it like has come to mean is inaccurate, right? It is a gap year and that it is a gap from what their current expectations of this era are. It’s not a gap year in terms of like the rest of the roster still playing on the team. So you can make your crew of young guys better and more versatile and more effective than they were before when they have to go back to playing their usual Hallebertton roles, right? That’s kind of what the development would mean. Skill development, right? Can Andrew Nehard walk in a 20 26 27 being a better shooter? Tough shots off the dribble shots, catching shoots, whatever, right? Can Ben Matherin get better at passing or something else, right? Can Aaron Nith be a better ball handler or get his fing down? all that stuff that’s going to matter, of course, for the Pacers success this coming season, but also for their success two seasons from now, right? That’s kind of what this is about with those younger guys. Can Ben Shepard get a consistent three ball or be able to do something off the balance like Garren Eastma’s third year development? Jarus Walker had a great time developing last year. Like, can he take more steps forward with a consistent basis? I could go through all the young guys, right? They all have ways to grow. They’re all young. That’s fine, right? So, I think that is how you maximize this season as the Pacers is those are already good players that we’re talking about. You’re not throwing out any of Nemhard, Nith, Matherin, Shepard, Walker, uh, Fury Tophen’s inexperienced but not young, whoever their centers are might be young. You’re not throwing any of those guys out on the floor as the Pacers because they’re young to develop them. They’re good. You’re throwing them on the floor because they’re good now. They can also get better because of their age. like this Thunder Pacers finals was full of youth on both sides. So, I think what the Pacers can do and will try to do is make that crew of young guys better and more versatile when the when Hallebertton is back and their roles come back. And that’s why I think the answer to their approach this coming season is really twofold. One is the development part in the context of winning, which is all the stuff that everybody understands and can break down, and that’s all the skills I just talked about, but it’s also skills that those guys can still do when Hallebertton is back, right? What that what that means is it’s not a bad thing if Andrew Nehard becomes like an awesome lead initiator, but he’s not going to be the lead initiator two seasons from now, unless he’s like an MVP candidate this coming year. But can he get like how does his shot creation getting better would still help his secondary creation but his secondary creation is more important for the Pacers like him attacking an already tilted or cracked defense right that jump shooting for everybody all sorts of stuff like that that is going to help the Pacers but also would help the two years now Pacers so that’s one part of this the other thing that I think is going to be fascinating for Rick Carile is experimenting right can he play Nith at the four more like that’s something that this coming season should be explored to some extent, right? Who can play what? Can Ben Matherin take the ball across the timeline? Like is that an idea? You know, this all sounds goofy to say out loud, but like these are good players. See what they can do in other situations or see what they can do in maybe not unique, but just lineups that aren’t typical for what this core has been because those are then clubs that if you’re at Carlile, you can apply to the bag in future playoff series when Hallebertton is back. Oh, I remember Aaron Smith playing the four here or you know this guy doing this thing here or whatever. This guy guarding that position there. Like that kind of stuff is also what I think this season should be about is exploring those kind of things with their young developing yet good talent, right? Making those players more prepared for more situations. It’s so hard to do all these things I’m saying in in truly straightup development contexts. I do not mean this to dump on the Brooklyn Nets who are in a tough bind because some of their picks are gone or whatever. They had five draft picks this year. They picked a ton of lead initiators like this Demon kid and all their Trayor and all these other initiators they picked. Like usually young shot creators are not good in the NBA. There’s so much adjustment. There’s so much to learn. It’s hard to be a high level initiator right away. And that not only hurts the team’s ability to win, but if you are Michael Porter Jr., Nick Claxton, whatever. It is so hard, so hard to be as effective. And Claxton took a nose dive in production last year for this exact reason. And so if the Pacers are going to try to blend development and winning this coming season and put their players, young players in positions to succeed on the floor, that’s why I think when I have been looking at free agents, I I have been looking at like veterans because they still even if they are not specifically someone you’re developing, right? Pick pick any free agent agent. In fact, I still have the list up thankfully. Okay, I mentioned campaign earlier. He’s not even the perfect example actually. I mentioned Corey Joseph earlier, right? He’s been on the Pacer before. Like he’s an okay setup guy. No one would look at Corey Joseph who turns 34 later this year and be like, “This guy, they’re developing. They’re trying to make him better for the future.” No. But he is capable enough that he makes it easier for other players to explore the studio space with the ball. He’s not going to cough it up himself. He’s not going to make defensive mistakes. It makes it easier for other players to learn when the system is good and things are going well. And that’s why I have obviously if they’re a good young player that’s preferable to a good old player in the Pacers current situation but that is why I have tipped my own thinking a little bit more towards veteran types right and the the examples I’ll use these are kind of cases one of these cases with a young player but you we’ll get to the older guys like how many of the 2022 23 paces or even the half season before that how many of those players got better when Halbertton came around you know Jaylen Smith Miles O’Shea Brassette Aaron Smith, Obie Tabby came the next year, right? Those guys all got better playing with a good point guard, right, who could give them chances to to develop and and favorable ones. How many players got better when they were playing with Sabonis and his screening and his passing, right? Brogden and Lebert and Doug McDermott to like a crazy extent, right? They were all better in that environment. And I none of those guys were truly developing, but like imagine they are because the Bers have young good players now. So obviously game time helps youngsters get better, but so does playing with vets. And so of course if Cam Jones could play, that’d be wonderful. But if a veteran is playing, that still is helping the other players develop. And if you’re blending both goals this year as the Pacers of like win as much as you can in the context of what you have, but also develop your young talent to be ready for a Hallebertton season or whatever your goals become in the future. You still need other veteran talent added to the team, right? you still need to be able to make the situation favorable for everyone involved. And so I get it if they sign young guys. Straight up flyers don’t really make sense to me for that reason. So that is to me what a gap year looks like for the Pacers. Numerical evidence, past examples. I hope that’s a somewhat compelling case. I think tanking is just completely untenable. I obviously understand that winning as many games as possible might not be like the greatest strategy ever. They got their pick back. That’s great. somewhere in the middle, I think, is the best reality for them to try to live in. And I think they can be a better team than the one I just described. You have a full season to to work with those guys. You can work through some kinks and be a better group. Okay. The gap year conversation is done. It sounds like Pacers uh summer league stuff will start on Friday. So that your weekend shows could be about the summer Pacers. Uh, I did land a fun interview that will be on this podcast at some point in the not too distant future about one of their new players from the draft. I won’t say which. Uh, and then so much is coming when they actually do sign players and all that. Everybody have a great fourth. I’ll record something late that night. If the Pacers do something, it will be on that. If not, it’ll be on summer league and you know the early thoughts on that. Uh, thank you guys so much for listening today. Hey, if you think I said something dumb, comment if you’re watching on YouTube or tweet at me at Tony Aris on Blue Sky or Twitter. Uh, Locked on Pacers is this podcast account on Twitter and Instagram. Thank you all so much for listening. We’ll see you very soon.

The Indiana Pacers are headed toward a strange season without Tyrese Haliburton. They lost Myles Turner. What should they prioritize? What is the latest on Turner and Pacers free agency reporting? Host Tony East breaks it all down.

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