BOMBSHELL: Vegas SHOCKS Pelicans with LOW Win Total | Dejounte Murray situation

BOMBSHELL: Vegas SHOCKS Pelicans with LOW Win Total | Dejounte Murray situation

Vegas just dropped a bombshell on the New Orleans Pelicans. I’ll tell you why Vegas having a low win total for the Pelicans is more concerning than you think. Plus, how does Dejonte Murray tie into everything? It’s Locked On Pelicans. Let’s go. You are Locked On Pelicans, your daily New Orleans Pelicans podcast, part of the Locked On Network. your team every day. Welcome to another edition of Locked On Pelicans, the daily podcast covering your favorite team, the New Orleans Pelicans and NBA. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day, available wherever you get your podcast and available on YouTube. I’m your host, Pelicans Insider, credential member of the media, JakeMadison, Nola Jake on Twitter. Here with y’all on this Thursday, summer league starting today for the New Orleans Pelicans. We’ll talk about it tomorrow and the coaching staff tomorrow, but the Las Vegas win totals per FDA came out and we’ve got to talk about that. And guess what? I don’t have the interview for the show, but I talked to a sports handicapper today about this and I think it gives me an idea of what’s going on with this number and it’s actually more concerning than you think. So, we’re going to break down why that number is so low um and what it means for New Orleans going forward because yeah, it is absolutely concerning. And how did they arrive at that number? That’s kind of the key thing. We’re going to talk about that today’s episode of Locked On Pelgans. Today’s episode of Locked On Pelgans is brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code lockdown NBA at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. And of course, thank you for making Lockdown Pelicans your first listen today and every day. We’re here Monday through Friday, the number one Pelicans podcast, covering everything you want to know about this Pelicans team. So, please subscribe wherever you get your podcast. Join over 11,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well. And don’t forget, you can watch us on the GF Coast Sports and Entertainment Network every weekday at 10:30 a.m. So, per FanDuel, the Pelicans win total, it’s an early number, is already out, and FanDuel has them set at 30 and a half is the overunder win total number. 30 and a half. Woof. I’ve seen it elsewhere at 32 and a half. So, they’re somewhere between 30 and a half and 32 and a half. Not even close to a 500 record, right? that is, you know, above a 50 loss pace. It’s not good for New Orleans here. And I was curious about this number, you know, because it puts them between fifth worst and eighth worst record in the league. And given that they don’t own next year’s pick, that’s kind of concerning obviously, right? So, I wanted to know how this number was arrived at. Does this factor in because I think there’s two different ways you can look at this. And I went right to the source or a source. You know, you could look at this and go, Vegas doesn’t believe in Zion Williamson’s health. They’ve seen the amount of injuries that the Pelicans have. So, they’re just never going to give this team a high win total because injury luck seems to always hit them in a very, very bad way. Or is this a case of Vegas just not liking the roster, not liking what Joe Dumars has done, and just genuinely not believing in this team, or C, something else? And I’m here to tell you it’s a little bit of all of the above, but it mainly focuses on Vegas just doesn’t believe in the Pelicans even when healthy. So, I reached out to Raphael Esparza. He’s at VSI doc sports on Twitter here. He’s a betting analyst and he’s an oddsmaker as well and does this for a living. So, I called him directly to ask him, hey, what goes into all this? And I said, you know, it presents two different things, right? If it’s just you’re worried about injuries, okay, that means the team could be good. If it’s like, yeah, even if they’re healthy, this team doesn’t project to be good. That’s concerning. There’s two different ways to view it, right? One of them is worse than the other. And so when I asked him about that, basically what he told me was, yeah, Vegas doesn’t believe in this Pelicans team in this roster whatsoever. You know, beyond just injuries, sometimes bad teams are bad is more or less what he said. And he views this as a bad team. And according to him, most of Vegas views this as a bad team. So when you see that 30 and a half number or that 32 and a half number and you try and kind of spin it as a positive of like, well, that’s Vegas just assuming they’re not healthy, so if Zion’s healthy, they’ll be they’ll crush that and it’ll be good. Vegas isn’t putting a ton of injury bias into this, good or bad bias, right? They just don’t really like this Pelicans roster as constructed right now and struggle to see where they’re going to win or how they’re going to win tons of games. That’s far more concerning than Vegas just being like, “Yeah, they’re not going to be healthy.” This is, you know, the people who do this for a living. And look, Vegas overunder totals are designed to get action on both sides so they can kind of just, you know, make money and all that. But apparently talking to another source about this, you know, like 70% of the money is coming in on that Pelican’s under according to them. So most people are fading the Pelicans. And this is where Raphael told me to look at something that I found kind of interesting. He said, “Don’t just look at the win total, but look at their chances to make the playoffs.” Right? You can bet on the the regular season win total, but you can also bet just straight up on the chances to make the playoffs. And the Pelicans have really long playoff odds. You know, they are to make the playoffs is plus 800 and minus450 to not make the playoffs. The Chicago Bulls, who have a similar win total to New Orleans, have significantly better playoff chances despite basically expected to have a very similar, if not the same record. Now, conference plays a part in this, and this is partially why Vegas is, I think, down on the Pelicans. The West is tough. The West is super duper tough. So, where, you know, if you were in the East where things are more wide open, yeah, you could probably make the playoffs and that’s going to, you know, impact your draft pick, right? you get into the postseason, you’re not in the lottery. You’re outside of the bottom 14. Okay? You know, even with a worse record, but in the West, it’s just going to be really, really tough. And they’re just not believing in this Pelicans roster as it is right now. I can tell you they also expect other moves to be made. Maybe it’s at the trade deadline or things like that with this team potentially just not going anywhere. They need to make bigger changes, acquire draft picks next year. So they rather than factoring in a Zion injury, I think Vegas is factoring in a potential Zion trade. Despite all the things of Joe Dumar saying we’re building around Zion, he’s the guy going forward. Vegas seems to be a little bit skeptical of that right now. So that’s why when this number came out, I was like that feels a little bit low. Are they just accounting for injuries? No, they just don’t like the roster. And a big part of that is what we’ll talk about coming up next. We’re not going to do it just yet. I want to talk on this a little bit more, but Deonte Murray, right? you know, him missing a chunk of the year is going to impact this team that needs to win in a very negative way. And that’s probably why you’ve seen a lot of, you know, people talking about trading him or moving him. I even did the show on could you wave and stretch him, even though that doesn’t actually save the Pelicans really much money and wouldn’t be a smart move. Is there another way to go about this? And I think Vegas is kind of factoring, you know, an already injured guy into it. Not just the fact that, you know, maybe Zion gets hurt or Zion is just Zion and doesn’t do what you need him to do. So, Vegas is down and I think the reason they’re down is more concerning than I expected. I truthfully thought it was going to have like a big injury kind of baked into that win total, but for them to come in at 30 and a half per FanDuel, that’s not great. Just putting it mildly, that’s not great. You know, I think this is why you’ve seen people tear the Pelicans apart for this trade with the Atlanta Hawks to move up and get Derrick Queen. You know, trading away next year’s unprotected first to move up 10 spots. You know, at 13 overall, you draft Derek Queen and I like Derrick Queen. Could be very good, right? You know, some of the stuff is TBD and you have to give him an incomplete on that. But people just weren’t believing in the Pelicans anyway, particularly in a tough Western Conference. And that’s why you’ve seen that trade graded, even though you shouldn’t put a grade on it yet, so negatively and people just railing the Pelicans about this and them basically being in every single draft night losers column out there. And Vegas seems to agree with them. And I tend to believe Vegas has an idea on this a little bit better than maybe other media talking heads do. So that’s why I see this and go, “Oh yeah, that’s concerning.” And the Pelicans really need Jeremiah fears and more so Derek Queen to really pan out sooner rather than later almost justify it because right now you are giving up like a top five pick next year. Even if you get into the playoffs that might still be 161 17 something like that. I can live with that. A top five pick in this upcoming draft that’s going to be a tough pill to swallow. Even if I think Derrick Queen’s going to be a very good player, he wouldn’t go in the top five of next year’s draft. He didn’t go in the top five in this draft, right? He went at 13. Didn’t go in the top 10. Would he go in the top 10 next year? Probably not. So, all of a sudden, the value proposition of this trade starts to look really off for New Orleans. There’s ways it can be writed. You know, it’s draft can be a crapshoot. It can be an unknown. So, maybe Derek Queen pans out, becomes an all-star, and no one cares anymore. But right now, it does look like the Pelicans, even if you believe in Queen, might have overpaid to try and go and get him, which I don’t think is the worst thing. That’s why I haven’t been as negative on this trade as others. But Vegas right now not bailing the Pelicans out, not justifying the Pelicans move for Derek Queen in this at least in the near-term future. So big part of that lower number is Deonte Murray and I’m going to answer a question that I saved from yesterday’s mailbag to today. Let’s look at that that’s coming up here next in today’s episode of Locked On Pelicans. Today’s episode of Locked On Pelicans is brought to you by Monarch Money. Do you ever wish managing your money felt easier? With Monarch Money, it can. Whether you’re growing your savings or planning a big purchase, Monarch puts you in the driver’s seat. It’s like having your own personal CFO, giving you full visibility and control over your finances. So, what I love about Monarch Money, it’s more than just a budgeting app. It’s a complete financial command center. So, you can track all your accounts, your investments, and spending in one place. So, in addition to just managing your money, you’re building for the future. You’re building wealth. And I think that’s one of the more important things, right? My fiance are managing our finances together. 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So, please subscribe wherever you get your podcast and join over 11,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well and become an everyday. That means you listen Monday through Friday to the Locked On Pelicans podcast. And if you’re an everyday, let me know in the comments down below. For your second listen, the NBA offseason never stops, does it? Uh, so for your second listen, find the Locked on NBA podcast. No offseason, so Doug, Matt, and Hayes are keeping you up to date on contract negotiations, rumors, and everything you need to be the most informed NBA fan. Find Lockdown NBA on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. So, we just went over why I think that Vegas number is concerning. It’s they just don’t believe in this roster. They’re not even factoring much injury stuff into it. It’s just they don’t like the team that has been assembled and doesn’t think it’s going to win a bunch of games. That’s worse than them just being like, “Yeah, that team’s always hurt. They’re going to continue to be hurt and that’s why they’re going to lose.” You know, if you are bad because you’re injured, that’s one thing. You don’t control some of that, right? Some of that’s outside of your hands. If you’re bad because your roster sucks and this team’s roster has been overhauled, that’s moves the team made. That’s stuff they did control and chose wrong decisions. That’s far more concerning. That’s what Vegas thinks is going to happen. Doesn’t mean it’s going to. These are still early projections. There’s still trades to potentially be made. All of that here. Maybe the rookies contribute more than we were expecting. All of those things are entirely possible. But it is concerning that Vegas, the people that kind of get this stuff pretty right are down on New Orleans. And look, one reason has to do with they’ve already got a key player injured and that is Dejonte Murray. So, I want to actually answer a question from yesterday’s show that I didn’t use because I thought it really fit into this and I wanted to tie more into it. I know we’re going to talk about coaching today, too, but the Vegas stuff really kind of I think preempted that and we’ll talk more about coaching tomorrow along with a summer league recap here. So, this comes from RJD012. He says, “Murray was a great long-term contract and leader when traded. Less than one year later, every Pel’s media talks like he’s a mere bad asset that’s worthless forever. Why? He’s the best point guard we’ll have in New Orleans for a while.” So, the Dejante Murray factor is something that I do think is important, right? There’s a reason I did a show on kind of the numbers of stretching and waving him and what that would look like. And it goes to this. The team’s projected to be bad next year. They can’t really afford to be bad to kind of justify the Derrick Queen trade in the short term. It gets justified long term by him panning out and being an awesome player, which very much in play in my opinion. But to justify it for next year, right, if you don’t want to see the Pelicans ridiculed and mocked and all of that by sending a top five pick to Atlanta, you need to be good. Dejante Murray is likely, I don’t know for sure, likely going to make his return to play in January. So he’s going to miss October, November, December. returns sometime in January. He’s not going to be playing 30 plus minutes per game. This is someone who’s going to be on a 20 to 25 minute minutes restriction, probably coming off the bench when he first returns. You know, that limits his impact this season. He’s probably not going to play backto-backs the entirety of the year when he returns. And who knows when he’s going to be ready to go like full a lotment of minutes and all that. The ACL injury is is pretty significant. Now, Murray tends to be a fast healer. He also seems to be someone who really attacks his rehab well and does all of the correct things. So, I feel good that he will come back, right? I’ve long said on this show, he’s not dead. It’s not like he’s never going to play basketball again, but these ACL injuries can have significant impact. You know, you lose some of the athleticism, the explosiveness, and all of that. When that happens, that’s a concern. And so, for a team that needs to win next year, they have to win. If you’re bad, it does you no good. If you’re bad, it does you no good. You’ve got to win to try and make the playoffs because you don’t control your pick. There’s no point in them trying to tank, right? So, if you’re trying to win and you have a player making $30 million that’s on the shelf for half the season and then going to play on a li limited minutes basis going forward, how much is of a positive impact is going to make in terms of onc court winning? I talked about the leadership stuff yesterday. I think that can be overrated. I don’t think they need that as much, but you do need guys to go out there and help you win basketball games and play well. And Murray, just by the fact that he’s not going to be available, will not be doing that in the beginning for New Orleans. So, if we’re looking at the team as they’re currently constructed and what their goals clearly are next year, which is make the playoffs, Murray probably doesn’t factor into that. That’s where this is coming from. I don’t know if every Pel’s media is talking like he’s a badass or things like that. There’s reasons to keep him in all of those things, but if you can, you know, get move his $30 million in salary and get stuff that’s gonna help you immediately, that’s important, right? He comes back in January, February, whatever it is. If you’re already out of playoff contention, what good does that do? Because you couldn’t get off to a fast start because a $30 million player isn’t playing for you because of the injury. That’s a disaster situation for New Orleans. So that’s why I think you’re seeing a lot of people look to move him because the Pelicans have said we’re going allin next season. We’re trying to be competitive. We’ve got no safety net. So if you’re trying to maximize that, Murray making $30.8 million next year and not giving you $30.8 million of production is really going to harm you. Now if he was healthy to start the year, I don’t know how high that Vegas number would be, but it’d certainly be higher than 30 and a half or 32 and a half. that would factor into it significantly. So that’s why, you know, if the Pelicans had next year’s pick, you wouldn’t really be seeing a ton of like trade Murray or do anything like that because, okay, you know what? You you bring him back, you rehab his value, you can always move him later or just let him kind of get his legs back under him, all of that. And if you’re bad, who cares? It’s tanking. We get a good draft pick and everyone’s happy here. But the Pelicans don’t have that option all of a sudden. So, you’ve got to really try and make the playoffs next year because while again, Derek Queen is kind of your lottery pick next year used this year. If it is top five, this draft upcoming, at least the top five, top 10 is probably better than the draft that just happened. So, that kind of factors into how people are viewing the team for better or worse. It’s kind of all for worse, right? So, Queen really needs to make an outsiz impact, but rookies often don’t do that. So, if you’re going to just try and kind of salvage next season beyond just player development, right, and look, Murray, not Murray, sorry, fears and Queen and Peavey and some of the other young guys really developing would be a is an important thing and vitally important in in fact for the New Orleans Pelicans, you still got to make the playoffs to kind of justify it some. So, the way to do that, looking, I’m not saying this is what I would do, right? We’re looking at through the lens of the team and how they operate and things like that. to the constraints that they have. I factor in when we talk about things they could do. Yeah, it’s probably trading DeJonte Murray to try and get some production and some help to make sure you get off to a fast start so that you’re not already out of playoff contention by the time Murray would come back. On the on the part of him being the best point guard that they’ll have in New Orleans for a while, you know, I I disagree with that. That’s just a matter of personal preference, right? That’s a subjective thing. I’m big on on Jeremiah Fears. I think he’s going to be really good in the NBA. I think, you know, he’s a guy that could contribute this year. Certainly will be contributing in a season from now. So, you know, part of this is also you you kind of drafted your point guard of the future. If he’s here now, just get him out there. You know, don’t bury him behind other people. Play him and let him make his impact. And if you believe in him that highly, and the Pelicans did to draft him seventh overall over Queen, a guy they also really like. They had fears higher on their board, yeah, you you want to open minutes to him and a path for them to play. So, I think it’s kind of like you have the future. The future is here now, so let’s just kind of go with the future rather than, you know, the guy that was kind of brought in under a different regime, under a different, you know, roster building idea when it comes to everything. So that’s where I think Murray’s kind of factoring into this. He’s not going to be worthless for forever, but you know, for all intents and purposes next year, is he actually going to help this team win? There’s a chance he could, but more likely than not, almost a zero in that category. And for a team that has to win now, yeah, maybe you then look to try and move him. And I think that’s where a lot of this is coming from. And the talk around Murray is impacting the team’s win total. it’s probably impacting what they’re going to look to try and do as well. Now, he’s a good presence in the locker room. You know, I’m not holding his, you know, the limited games he played last year, he did not play well. You know, you hear him in that podcast interview and everything he was going through, I’m going to give him a complete pass on that. I’m not holding that against him. I’m not going to be like, well, when he played last year, he wasn’t good, so you should look to trade him. Dude was going through so much that play last year. We are just, like I said, giving him a pass and everything like that. I think to do otherwise would be disingenuous in a way. So he’s a good locker room guy that’s capable of being a very good piece for this team, but he’s not going to help you in October, November, December, maybe not even January next year, and this team needs him to. And so that puts them in a rough spot. And that’s why I think you’re seeing him talked about being moved in other things. I don’t know if that’s actually what the Pelons are actively trying to do, though I think they would probably do that if if the opportunity presented itself. What do you want to see them do with Dejonte Murray? Trade him now, wait, rehab the value, trade him later, just keep him for his contract. Let me know in the comments down below. So, coming up next, NBA Cup play. We’ve got the group for the Pelicans. All of that. That’s coming up here next in today’s episode of Locked On Pelicans. And thank you for making Locked On Pelicans your first listen today and every day. We’re here Monday through Friday. the number one Pelicans podcast covering everything you want to know about this Pelicans team. So, please subscribe wherever you get your podcast and join over 11,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well, or watch us on the GF Coast Sports and Entertainment Network, same place you watch your Pelicans play. For your second listen today, I’m actually going to go with Locked on NBA Game Night. We’re covering summer league like nobody else does. A daily NBA podcast just covering summer league and the performances you want to know about. I’m excited to watch these young guys play. It’s going to be a lot of fun to see what we learn from summer league. Go check out Locked on NBA Game Night. I’m on there every Friday as well. Make that your second listen today. Part of the Lockdown podcast network. Your team every day. All right. NBA teams, the Pelicans included, know who they’re going to be playing in the 2025 NBA Cup. The league announced the results of the group stage draw on Wednesday. There’s three groups per conference, five teams in each group. The drawing was made at random based off of win loss record. It’s no longer the inseason tournament. It’s the NBA cup. It’s going to begin on Friday, October 31st. And I think it goes through midn November is when it does, or maybe it’s December. I forget the exact date. But here’s the Pelicans group. And the Pelicans are in group B in the Western Conference with the Dallas Mavericks, the Los Angeles Clippers, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Memphis Grizzlies, and the New Orleans Pelicans. Group C in the West is probably the toughest one. Denver Nuggets, the Warriors, Rockets, Trailblazers, and Spurs. So, the games are played from October 31st through November 28th. You play one game against each of the opponents in the group, and then the six group stage winners will advance, as will a wildcard team from each conference. Wildard teams are based are set based on winning percentage and certain tiebreers, which is like your point differential, which is why you’ve seen some teams run up the score in the inseason tournament, sorry, the NBA cup here. So, that’s basically how it works. I’m excited to watch it. I found it to be pretty fun. I like the courts and everything. I’m a big fan of the inseason tournament, the NBA. I’m still not used to calling it the NBA Cup. I’ve really enjoyed it. I think it’s pretty great. I like that, you know, it’s the the semi-finals and finals are in Vegas. It only adds one extra game. So, these are going to be regular season games, too, that just have a little bit of something, you know, a little bit of land, to use a Louisiana word, tied to them. It still counts towards the standings. That’s why you do it in the Western Conference so that it ending early means if you end up play making it that far, you know, you play an Eastern Conference team, well, that game doesn’t count, so it doesn’t even matter. But you get some of this out of the way early and don’t need to worry about it impacting the schedule later. When you look at the Pelicon schedule when it will get released, you will see like a gap on there and it’s for the games that you put in after the NBA Cup. So when you see that and like why don’t the Pelicans play for 10 days or something, they’ll have two games in that mix. It’s just going to depend on what teams you end up playing against, you know, in the knockout rounds potentially or if you’re eliminated from that, they’re going to add extra games there, too. So I love this. It’s a lot of fun in my opinion. I think these games are great. I like the weird courts. They just add some sort of differentiator to the regular season. The teams clearly want to win this. The players try harder. I’m a big fan of it. Just everything about it seems to work. It’s absolutely a little bit gimmicky and I don’t care. I fall for gimmicks. Do you fall for it? Let me know in the comments down below. Not the toughest group for New Orleans, but it’s still a pretty tough one because it’s Western Conference. It’d be fun to really play mix up all teams, but I think that is a very difficult thing to do when it comes to scheduling and all of that. So, Pelicans in the group with the Dallas Mavericks, the Los Angeles Clippers, the Lakers, the Memphis Grizzlies as well. So, those are the five teams there. You’re going to play four games from that and hopefully the Pelicans advance as they did two years ago, which was pretty great. So, coming up later in the week, tomorrow really on lockdown Pelicans. We’re going to be talking about the Summer League game that opens for the Pelicans. I’m excited to see them out there on the court. our first look at Jeremiah fears at Derek Queen and some of the other young guys, too. I am obviously very excited about this. I really want to see how they do and what this is all going to look like. The game is at 2:30 p.m. Central today. Early one like that. We’re going to be done early. That’s awesome. I’m excited about that. I can’t wait to watch it. We’re going to be recapping it right here on Locked on Pelicans. Plus, we’re also going to look at the coaching staff. James Bergo updates Willie Green. All of that and more in tomorrow’s episode of Locked On Pelicans. So, as always, I’m your host, Jake Madison, Nola Jake on Twitter. This is the Lockdown Pelicans podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Let me know if you’re an everyday down in the comments below. Watch us on the GF Coast Sports and Entertainment Network. And I’ll be back with y’all tomorrow.

Vegas bombshell: New Orleans Pelicans projected for dismal 30.5 wins. Is the roster truly that weak, or are oddsmakers missing something crucial?

Jake Madison dissects the shocking FanDuel projection, exploring why Vegas lacks faith in the Pelicans’ lineup. He analyzes Dejounte Murray’s injury impact, potential roster moves, and the team’s challenging path forward without their 2026 first-round pick. Madison also breaks down the NBA Cup group assignments, featuring matchups against the Mavericks, Clippers, Lakers, and Grizzlies.

Tune in for expert insights on the Pelicans’ roster concerns and strategies to overcome this pessimistic outlook for the upcoming season.

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