Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins (7-11-25) MLB Game Predictions, Picks and Best Bets

because I’m curious about this next one here. Great pitching match up. 925 926. Got Paul Ski and the Pirates at plus 116. Joe Ryan and the Twins at minus 127. This total of seven has some juice to the under at minus 120. All right, Bdub. This one has me a little. These are two pitchers in the All-Star game. They’re pitching Friday here. The All-Star game is Tuesday. And Paul Ske in his last three starts has been pulled before 90 pitches. Even the one- nothing uh game he pitched against Seattle with 10 strikeouts. They pulled him out at 78 pitches. So, he hasn’t hit 90 pitches in three straight starts. Are they going to let this guy go fullblown a full, you know, up to his 100 pitch mark or are they going to hold him back a little for the All-Star game and vice versa? Is that the same with Joe Ryan? How do they approach these guys where literally four days before the All-Star game? How does this work out in this one? And what do you think, Ba? It’s, you know, it’s an interesting thought. I never really thought about it from that angle. I don’t think I think they’ll let him go. If he’s good, they’ll they’ll let him throw a complete game in my opinion. Um, but I think for for me, I think these starting pitchers are really really close. Uh, I’ve got SK a little bit better in the model. He’s 24% better uh than an average pitcher, but I have Ryan 23% better than an average pitcher. So, there’s not much between them. If you look at yeartodate base winner erra, uh, I think this is a little bit this will be a little bit surprising to some. Uh Ryan with a 2.91 and Skins with a 3.07. So we talked about Scooble, I’ve talked about Gilbert who’s the number two base winner RRA and well we talked about Wheeler pretty extensively today. So those are number one, two, three, but you got to go down to number 15 and this is not I mean these aren’t exotic stats. This is strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and ground ball rate. So uh I think that that’s a little surprising to me that and I think we get the better starting pitcher here. uh at least what they’ve shown uh this this season. And then you’re looking at like just a huge gap in this bullpen. Uh we talked about the number one bullpen with the Astros. Well, number two is the Minnesota Twins. And the Pirates are ranked number 24. And so then you have the Well, how about the offenses? You look at the Twins. They’re still 10th by my ratings. And they’re better at home, too. We talked we’ve talked about that on the show against a Pirates offense that’s that’s number 25. I think this game should be priced like minus 160 for the Twins. It’s it’s a it’s a straight play. It’s not a show play. Uh it’s really hard for me to to to get behind uh or to to get in front of rather skins. Uh but I I put it out on the card, Kyle. I think Minnesota’s the play here. Yeah. Okay. I I I can’t disagree with that. Much better offense. Two fantastic pitchers. Before we have Kenny break this down chat box. All right. Let’s clear some things up. So Dix inside, our resident Bonnie Blue enthusiast, if you will, is asking us to asking us who we think is going to win the home run derby. Please discuss. That means you’ve not been listening all week. Monday, we will do a show breaking down the home run derby and the All-Star game. So we’re not going to do it on the Q&A today. We’ll just cancel the show Monday. I mean, which is an option of course, but we will have a home run derby show on Monday. So that’s where we’ll break that down. Matt asked, “Kenny, besides Lighter and Burns, who else is in your K parlay?” Well, that’s an excellent intro into this one, Kenny. What do you think here? It’s our boy Paul Ske. We love skins, but are we worried about them limiting his pitch count? Because that’s been his last three starts. What do you think on this one? I’m not. I mean, I I went back and even just looked at the gain logs. thought like, you know, was it was it a matter of like, you know, a really long half inning where, you know, we sat there for 25 minutes and they just thought, hey, we suck. It doesn’t matter. And that honestly, it wasn’t wasn’t really the case. I mean, I think there were like 20 or so pitches, so nothing too too crazy. So, I get the argument that they’re trying to, you know, not murder him before the Allar break. I don’t know if that’s it or I mean, just just just, you know, you look you look at the, you know, the game against the Brewers, he just didn’t have it. That was the game against Murowski. Um, so cross that one off. It was hot that day too, right? Wasn’t it like 100° that day or something? But last two games are alarming. You know, five hits, no earned runs, five strikeouts, 88 pitches. Game and then the next game, five hits, zero earned runs, 10 strikeouts, 78 pitches. So, you’d like to see him go a little longer there. Um, again, could be situational based. And then, but I went and looked last year. I mean, he was named, you know, starter of the NL All-Star game last year. Um, and his last start going into the All-Star game, they let him they let him throw 105 pitches. So, okay. I I I don’t know. I I think I think if he has it, they they they let him go. And regardless, even if if you tell me right now, you know, 85 pitches is his max. I I still think I could probably get behind this. I mean, I always said what? Eight or more K is a plus money. We just do it. So, yeah, I’m I’m seven until the markets knew. It was the seven plus was our rule, but we’re never going to get that again. They taking it away. Well, my thing was eight eight at plus. If you got if you got like plus 120 on eight, I just wanted to do it. But just fun facts here and I’m sure everyone know everyone has seen the the data on this but Paul Sches in his last 13 starts across his last 13 starts he is a 172 erra with a complete game uh he is uh 1 and5 uh in that in that time frame. So like I haven’t like the only the only time I can remember a situation like this was I think Deg Grom the year he won the Sai Young for the Mets he had like a sub two erra and I think he finished the season like 4-1 or something. So that’s the kind of year we’re having here. Um, yeah, a little worried about the pitch count, but he’s just he’s just awesome and uh I’m betting it today. Paul Ske plusks parlayed with Chase Burns eight plus KS. We got that at plus 475. Woo, that’s an Elite 8 strikeout parlay. So, for purposes of the show, we are locking in Chase Burns and Paul Ski the Elite 8s parlay for Kenny today and that’s at plus475. I like that a lot. I love me some strikeout parlays. That one is a good

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins MLB game predictions for July 11th, 2025.

Our betting experts preview the MLB game between Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins. They’ll go over the latest MLB betting trends and best value baseball odds available for their betting predictions and will share their MLB expert predictions, picks and best bets.

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