Scout’s Eye with Matt Williamson: Things that could break Rodgers

Scout’s Eye with Matt Williamson: Things that could break Rodgers

Hello everyone. I’m Matt Williamson. Maybe I sound a little different. I am in a hotel room in Lexington, Kentucky. Down here with my son who is going to be a Wildcat next year. He’s here on orientation. Here for 24 hours and then driving home. Um, but I have a bunch of tidbits for you. I also am a little embarrassed of how much money I spent on bourbon last night, you know, at this insane Walmart like superstore of bourbon. This place is crazy. It’s not like buying it in PA where you it’s way more expensive and there’s so much less to pick from. But this place is bonkers and I’m loving it. Um, not just the bourbon, but anyway. Um, I have some Rogers stuff here you’re probably not going to love hearing. Now, I want to put a little bit of this in context that some of I mean his season with the Jets in some way some ways was kind of a tale of two seasons where the first half of the year older guy coming off a major injury and not trusting the system or his legs really for that matter and then it got better when Adams got there but still it was a pretty dysfunctional group and he never really trusted his protection. But some of the stuff I’m about to tell you is still scary. So, he was credited with 26 big time throws against 12 turnover worthy plays. See, I love turnover worthy plays much more than I do interceptions because now this is subjective, but still turnover worthy play means you made the right choice and you’re it’s actually happened against the Steelers. He hits somebody in stride, bounces off of them, goes up in the air, beanie Bishop picks it off. Well, that’s not a turnover worthy play. a turnover, you know, even though he gets credited for an interception. A turnover worthy play is when you hit a defensive back in the numbers and he drops it, but you don’t get the interception. See what I’m going with? But anyways, he had 26 big-time throws against 12 turnover worthy plays, which was ahead of Pat Mahomes and it was just outside the top 10 in both categories. Now, that sounds great. you know, super low in turnover worthy plays, really high or quite low in turnover worthy plays, quite high in big-time throws, and he’s always been great at both these things. However, it gets kind of downhill from there with some of the stuff I’ve been digging up is almost a quarter, almost 25% of his pressured dropbacks, so when he’s considered under pressure, they turned into sacks. Now, that’s something that people are really starting to look at is your pressure to sack situation. Like, okay, we all understand your blocking didn’t do their job. They got pressured. Now, what do you do? Do you take the sack as opposed to throw it away or lamar it up and make the guy miss? Well, he was bad at that stuff. And in general, just when he was pressured, which happens pretty often throughout the course of a game for anybody, he only averaged 3.1 yards per play on all pressure dropbacks. It’s pretty bad. That that’s concerning. So, if things go ary, keep that in mind. So, last year and especially early the year when the pocket broke down, Rogers broke down. And also Bo Nicks, a rookie in a Shawn Payeyton offense that is known to check the ball down and throw to backs. Think about all the all the passes Kamar caught with the Saints with Peyton. Only Bo Knicks threw more checkdowns last year than Rogers. Also, the deeper he got into plays, the worse he played. You know, I mean, if things didn’t go to script, if the ball didn’t come out boom, boom, boom, on time, the worse he played, and that clearly was not who he was in his best time. Now, I’m not saying he can’t get back to some of that. Last year might go down as his worst year ever. I mean, the injury year aside, he played three snaps or whatever, of course, his first year with the Jets. It was not a good situation. This is a better situation in my my opinion. This part worries me though, and I don’t know that you’re going to get it back because I talk about this a lot with quarterbacking. The hardest the hardest place to thrive isn’t throwing go balls. It’s red zone and especially the 10 to 19 yard area anywhere on the field. 0 to 10 are usually pretty easy throws. 20 plus, you usually have a lot of one-on- ons, but 10 to 19 is crowded. And that’s where the best quarterbacks year after year, and Rogers was always at the top of this list, thrive. And from a clean pocket on those throws, his uncatchable throw rate spiked quite a bit. it it went up 14% from his 2022 season. Remember, 2023 was a waste and it’s 17 points higher than his 2021 season. So, he was only completing about 40% of his throws when he was deemed in a clean pocket. This was not when he was under pressure in that 10 to 19 yard area. That’s going to be an area that I’m really, really interested. Now, I think you help him by getting John Smith, getting Frithouth involved, uh, Metaf on crossers, maybe Roman Wilson out of the slot, you know, those type of things. You know, that maybe the receivers will help that, but when that starts to go, it’s hard to overcome. Now, I also think though what’s never going to go though is his ability as a game manager. And I mean that is the ultimate compliment. his quick processing certainly he has great accuracy still even at his worst days with the Jets on the lower degree of difficulty stuff. So the tough stuff didn’t go as well for him. But there are reasons why. But I’m also maybe just making excuses for a once phenomenal player that’s an old man that you know that un you know father times undefeated. Who knows? But those are just things to look for. Bet Online’s the world’s most trusted betting platform and your number one source for all your sports betting action. With baseball season in full swing, Bet Online is more ways to stay in on the action with the latest odds, news, and scores, even live in-game betting while the games are being played. We keep the dog days of summer rolling with the largest selection of odds on everything with updated odds on MLB, UFC, and boxing to tennis and NFL futures. Bet Online remains the best online source for all your sports wagering info. In between games, head over to Bet Online Casino with all the top Vegas style games, including poker and live casino. Bet online, the game starts here. [Applause] [Music] All right. So, we have two more podcasts after today. I am uh driving home from Kentucky after this conversation with you guys, picking him up at campus. One of the two is going to be a mailbag and I’ll come up with something. As you’ve noticed, a lot of these are just things I’ve found over the last couple weeks. A bunch of tidbits rolled into one podcast. And this is something I wanted to bring up earlier post John Smith trade. I’m intrigued with this heavy heavy tight end usage. I mean, they’re going to lead the league or be close to multiple tight ends on the field. What percentage? And I would be shocked if they’re not at the top of the league again in 13 personnel. And I think Smith is a really good addition. However, I’ve been a little doom and gloom in this one. I apologize, but big personnel. One thing I love about the league and like the Ravens are great about this is the week that you get to prepare between week 13 and 14, week two and three, whatever, is much less than people realize. There just isn’t as many hours in a day. I it it’s really hard to prepare for teams. And I bring up the Ravens because they’re so unique with how they play offense. And I think the Steelers will present some of that, too. Instead of a Ricard, they’re playing three tight ends. you know, like they don’t opposing defenses don’t see that every week. No one sees like a fullback coming downhill old school. A lot of the linebackers don’t even know how to take that on, you know. So, teams that are playing outside the box. That doesn’t mean they all going to work or they’re all brilliant schemes often present advantages. So, I think this big tight end grouping is going to be physical, which we know this team stresses. It’s going to be difficult to prepare for, but they can’t be terrible on first downs. Cannot. If it’s second and eighth, defenses don’t care. You’re in 13 personnel on third and longs. You know what I mean? Like one of the the interesting things to me is let’s say you roll out 13 personnel with all three of those tight ends, Metaf and Warren as your five skill guys. Now are teams just going to play their base 43 or 34 against that? Maybe. Are they going to go to nickel? Maybe. You know, they’re going to prepare for those things throughout the week. They’re at least going to know what they’re going to roll out there. But if it’s third and eight, I’m definitely going with nickel or dime. You know what I mean? Like run the ball all you want because you guys stink on you guys stunk on first downs. So, a lot of people have been asking me, “Hey Matt, I see that you are pretty high on the Johnny Smith pickup. Does that really lessen the need for another wide receiver?” Yes, it lessens the need, but it doesn’t eliminate it because inevitably you’re going to be in third and longs no matter what. Do we have a ton of faith that this is going to be a great first down team? I don’t. I sure hope it gets better, but I don’t have a ton of faith that it’s going to be your bread and butter that you’re always in second and four and just keep all those big tight ends out there. That sounds wonderful, but inevitably you’re going to get a holding call. You know, uh you’re going to get a stuff. You mean a drop pass on first down, bad execution, maybe you’re just not that good on first downs, which was the case recently. So, this way of playing offense is really intriguing to me, but I would not be done looking for vertical weapons, more team speed, another outside receiver, obviously. Um, Gabe Davis. Yeah. Okay. I mean, at least that good. Um, because again, you got to think about all the situations you’re going to face offensively, and many of them are going to be third and six plus, second and 10. You know, you throw the ball on first down, incomplete. All of a sudden, it’s second and 10. All right. Well, then all of a sudden, you try your third 13 personnel out there on second and 10. All right. we’ll concede that we’ll let you run the ball and be physical for five yards. Now you’re in third and five, you know, best of luck, you know. So, I just wanted to present that angle of this and sorry I’m so doom and gloomy. Um, but hey, you know, I’m just trying to be honest and present how things can go wrong in this offense, too, cuz it’s really intriguing to me, including Rogers. All right, everyone. Over and out. [Music]

Some worrying things about Aaron Rodgers’ game.

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