The Padres Will REGRET This Decision…

The Padres Will REGRET This Decision…

The Padres’s will regret this decision as this player’s impact on this team cannot be understated and fans are divided by him all year long. Let’s talk about it. Hi, welcome back to another episode of Padres’s Digest. We’re your host Andrew. Very, very happy to be back after a week-l long hiatus, but I’m super excited and I’m going to give you guys a little bit of a hot take today and I’ll get into it in just a second. Before anything, though, please subscribe. As always, we just passed I think 1,700. So, we’re getting super close to 2,000. Please, please, please get us there and I’ll love you forever. Okay, today I’m going to pose a very hot take of a question or more of a statement, I guess. This is why we shouldn’t trade Dylan CE at the deadline. I know we’ve made a lot of videos, and by we, I mean Christian. A lot of videos about why Dylan CE could go to this team and what we could get for him, Dylan C to this team. But I want to pose the question. I don’t I’m not disagreeing with Christian, but I want to pose the statement that why we shouldn’t trade Dylan CE. So, let’s start with this, right? Obviously, we know Dylan CE has not played good this year. He’s seventh in the uh in the ERA rankings for league wise, 488. Obviously, horrible. And that’s affecting overall our team starters erra cuz right now we’re in 13th with a 4 erra. Very much affected by uh Dylan CE’s performances. So, no one’s saying that Dylan CE is not having a bad year, right? And I’ve said it a cabillion times by now. Dylan CE is a good pitcher who is pitching bad right now. And I can dive into it deeper, but I just want to explain to you now why he’s a good it’s not a good idea to trade him. For starters, again, he’s a good pitcher, right? And you risk trading a good pitcher away that he could perform better on another team. Also, you’d be selling him at an all-time low, which means the return you would get for trading someone like Dylan CE would be lower than you could get if you traded him last year. And obviously, you could probably still get a pretty good package for Dylan CE because he does have a history. I mean, last year he was fourth in NL Sai Young award voting. So, he has history, but again, this year is not great and his value would be at an all-time low. So why would you want to trade away someone who you know you know can be good? He threw a no hitter last year. You know Dylan CE can be good for prospects that again may or may not make the roster. If you can trade him for a catcher or a good left fielder, fine, right? But in reality I don’t think we’re going to be able to get anyone super good with Dylan CE’s value right now. So why not just take the risk on Dylan CE? Iron some things out. We have Reuben Neba on staff and you’ve seen the work he can do. Ao uh my favorite person in the world Archie Seanco. He had a art article about Dylan C why he’s struggling just today after I made all this stuff cuz I tried recording this video on my laptop and it failed. But that’s besides the point, right? So I don’t want to do a super deep dive into what’s going wrong with him. But if you guys want that video, I can make it. But I want to show you I want to like I guess summarize some points just so you understand what’s been happening. So I can make my final point. But as you can see from these percentile rankings, right? Obviously 2024 again fourth in Sai Young award voting is looking much better than it does in 2025. I mean look at his pitching run value, his fast ball run value. That’s like the overall effectiveness of those pitches. So his fast ball is not as effective as it was last year, right? But I mean key aspects of it are still around there. I mean his expected RA like we said before is not horrible. 3.65 it’s not horrible. batting average too and fast ball velocity is still there. I mean, one thing I do want you to understand, too, is that his chase rate is higher this year, which means people are chasing at balls more this year than they did last year. And the whiff is still good. Strikeouts are still good, right? Walks aren’t that much worse. And people have relatively always hit him hard, but this year they are hitting him harder. Right? So, why are they hitting him harder? Well, I’ll explain first. Showing you this. Now, 2024, those are the stats breakdown of monthly. And as you can see, I want to give you a relatively a relative bit of hope. Might be of a little bit of a stretch, but pre-allar he had a 399 RA, which is we’ll say four, right? Post allstar it was 266. Right now, we are in the postallar area of his uh year. So, that means things should be improving. Should be improving from now on. Should big word should. Now, if you look at the stats, they look pretty even. I mean, 261 in April and fours May, June, and then a two in July, August, four. So, it’s not like it’s like a super big difference, but it’s a difference, right? It’s a difference. And then you can look at the stats. We’ve already kind of looked at the the breakdown, the percentiles, so I won’t let you I won’t dive too deep into this one, but I mean, they look relatively the same throughout. I mean, obviously, I think 22 was his best year. I don’t remember exactly what the stat line was that year, but it was probably his best year, right? And then you can look at his pitch mix. So, obviously, he’s throwing a lot of fast balls, a lot of sliders, and that’s going to be a point I’m going to make in just a second, but fast ball sliders are his usual pitch, right? And I mean, they still have great vertical break upwards, downwards, upside downwards, whatever way, right? And then 24, 25. Again, same two pitches that are his regulars. Fast balls, sliders over a thousand times last year. Vertical drop on his slider is around the same as his vertical drop on his slider from last year. This year, fast ball, same thing, too, right? But what I want you to understand about this, and this is something from the article that I’ll make a deeper dive into, is that the fact that he only really throws two pitches, while he does have really good pitches, it affects, let’s put it this way, right? People saw those pitches in 2024 and they struck out on it and they didn’t hit it as well. But now that it’s the basically the same thing this year, hitters have started to figure it out. And you can see that in a smaller scale if you look through just like a first time around at bat, second time at bat, third time at bat. So number of pitches in repertoire, Dylan Cece 2, right? A,000 overall 358. First time around 343. The second time it jumps up to 359 and then third and fourth times it jumps up to 370 which is obviously much more. So his low pitch count each batter 340 high pitch count batter 340 second time around goes up second time around goes up third time around goes up third time goes grows up. So every single time he keeps throwing the same exact pitches it’s not it’s people are figuring out right. And the other thing I want you to understand too is that his command hasn’t been as good this year as it’s been last year. I know his command has always been like based on pure filth, but if you’re throwing a slider and it’s not locating in the correct area you want it to locate, that’s going gone. That’s getting hit hard. That’s going long gone and deep. But I mean, Dely still is up there with strikeouts, right? I mean, he strikes people out all the time. fifth place of in the past calendar year 215. But again, like I was saying, a lot of Padre fans are calling Dylan Ce’s pitching garbage. While he obviously had a pretty terrible year so far, he’s got some great stuff in his arsenal. One of the best at getting swings and misses. His issues is more so command, especially with his slider. He’s been pretty bad at locating his slider, unlike what he’s doing most of the last year. He’s been hanging a lot of sliders in the middle upper part of the strike zone. And unfortunately, in the pros, all it takes is one bad pitch for the game to change. Yes. So, I know I’m giving you these negatives, but what does that mean? That means, again, I mean, I’ve shown you his pitch arsenal. If he starts throwing more varied pitches that he knows he can throw, he can start fooling batters and his command issue won’t be as bad because when you’re throwing a slider, it breaks different than a sweeper. When you’re throwing a fast ball, it breaks different from a sinker. So it gives more confusion towards the batter because if you see a ball going 90 miles per hour and then it goes like a sinker that’s going to confuse him 97. Now now obviously a fast ball is faster than a sinker. So that’s going straight but it’s going at almost 100 miles per hour which again basic logic is going to fool more batters. So if Dylan CE makes that adjustment, even if he doesn’t locate his sliders as well, I think genuinely what all he needs to do is just change the way or change his pitching lineup, pitch mix, better word, pitch mix. So if Dylan C genuinely can do that, and I genuinely think he can do that, he could be not just one of the best pitchers in our rotation, but could go back to being one of the best pitchers in the league with just those small adjustments. And like I said, I can dive much deeper into it in a separate video if you want me to, but genuinely the Padres’s will regret trading Dylan CE for the second half because he could be and he needs to be one of our best pitchers cuz like I said before, my theory if you make the playoffs, you need at least three star pitchers to win the World Series. Do I have data to make that to back that up? No. Just my feeling from what I’ve seen. But Michael King when he’s back, Dylan CE, Nick Paveta 1, 12, three, throw in you Darbish for four. Genuinely, our rotation could be set. And I think Dylan CE has the tools, has the support system, has everything he needs to come back to how he was in 2024. And I want you guys to believe that trading him now would be a mistake. That’s what I wanted to say. So, thank you guys so much for watching. Let me know how you feel. Do you really still think we should trade away Dylan Cease or do you want to keep him now? How do you feel about my takes? Do you think I’m stupid? Do you miss me? Please tell me you did because I had FOMO. I was like, I wish I could make a video right now. It was hard. Uh, but yeah, I’m back for sure. So, thank you for waiting and thank you for being patient. But yeah, thank you guys much for watching. Have a fantastic rest of your day. As always, I’ll have a game recap today cuz game recaps are finally back. Whoops-ydoo. Uh, and yeah, actually, I think this video will be posted tomorrow, so the game recap will already be out. So, ignore that. But thank you so much for watching. Please subscribe as always and have a fantastic rest of your day. Goodbye. Go Padres’s. Goodbye.

Today, Andrew talks about Dylan Cease and poses a very hot take for y’all, while talking a little about why he’s been struggling…

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Andrew McFarland