Overreacting to two days of Green Bay Packers training camp: Could the defense reign in 2025?

Overreacting to two days of Green Bay Packers training camp: Could the defense reign in 2025?

You know how they say don’t overreact to a couple preseason practices? Forget all of that. We’re going to overreact on today’s show. You are Locked On Packers, your daily Green Bay Packers podcast. Part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. [Music] You were locked on Packers, part of the Locked On Network. your team every day. I’m Peter Bakowski and I cover the Packers for the Leap, a newsletter I would love for you to subscribe to. Follow me on Twitter, Peter_owski. Follow the podcast on Twitter, Locked on Packers. Like us on Facebook. Subscribe to the podcast, iTunes, Spotify, Google Podcasts, wherever you find podcasts, you’ll find Locked on Packers, the number one Packers podcast on the internet and the show for fans who know what happened. They want to know why and how. Thanks to everyone who makes Locked on Packers their first listen every day. We hope you like starting your day with us as much as we like starting our day with you. Today’s episode brought to you by our friends at Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase. Okay, we’re not going to seriously overreact, but what I want to do is overreact and then decide how much of an overreaction we actually think it is. because maybe it turns out we’re not overreacting or that there’s there is actually reasons to believe in the overreaction. Let’s start with overreaction number one. Uh Matthew Golden is going to start for this team. He started the very first team drills Wes Hoswitz noted. They came out in 12 personnel. It was Romeo Dobs and it was Matthew Golden. Matt Laflur talked about, “Hey, could Matthew Golden play the Jaden Reed role? Some of the schemed dub stuff, the pre-nap motion, the gadget stuff.” Malif said, “Yeah, theoretically, maybe.” Okay, that’s a good start. And so far, we’re not hearing about, oh, Dantavian Wixs looks like a a different guy this year. Oh, Romeo Dobs has really taken a step forward. Oh, every play has gone to Jaden Reed. No, now Tucker Craft seeing a lot of a lot of targets. Th this is not this is not a crazy overreaction. Now, to just declare it after two practices, of course, it is a crazy overreaction, but it’s not at all inconceivable, which is which is another way of saying a more convoluted way of saying it is entirely conceivable that we get to week one and he is your starter on the outside. Now, first time they’re in 11 personnel, guess who? It’s Wix, it’s Dos, it’s Reed. So there there’s going to be an adjustment process here for sure. But if you told me by the end of training camp that the most impressive boundary receiver on this team was Matthew Golden, it it wouldn’t even be shocking. Wouldn’t it wouldn’t even be surprising to me. So yes, after two days it is an overreaction, but it’s not at all crazy to think that that is a potential outcome in all of this. Overreaction number two, the Packers defense is going to be better than the Packers offense in 2025. Packers offense had to do push-ups yesterday at practice. Uh two-minute drill. Packers defense got some wins. By all accounts, it was a terrific day from the defense. Nate Hobbs making plays. Lucas Vaness with some pressures and Edin Cooper doing Edin Cooper things. This defense looks, I think, like it has a chance to be a top five kind of defense this season. Everything has to break right for them. But that’s true of any team that ends up in the top five. Defense is highly volatile. Quay Walker gets cleared. He’s on his way back. If Lucas Vaness is going to be an impact player, and remember we talked about Yeah. Looking are you finding those tweets? Are you seeing the conversations? It’s a lot of, hey, Jordan Love got this pass off, but but Lucas Vaness was barreling down on him. Pressure from Lucas Vaness leads Jordan Love to pressure from LVN. Now, until the pads come on, this is all theoretical and hypothetical. Again, it would not be surprising to me if the defense, like if this was the fifth best defense in the NFL and the Packers had the seventh best offense in the NFL, that wouldn’t be that surprising to me. Now, I think the Packers once again have the potential to have the best offense in the league. I I suppose theoretically they have the potential to have the best defense just because defense can be so volatile. I think this is a pretty big overreaction off one day of practice. I don’t see it. But I think this defense can be really good. Mostly I just think this offense if if Jordan Love is relatively healthy and this the offensive line has great depth. Like the receivers have great depth. No one even has to really take a big step forward. Again, this was the third offense by DVOA last year. Top 10 in EPA per play, top five rushing team, all that stuff. They didn’t have great run blocking. They didn’t have consistent pass catching, drop rates, all that stuff. and they were third. What you want is for them to be better in these big games, in these big game moments. The offense is going to be awesome. So, don’t go crazy off one day of practice, but I think this defense can be really, really, really good. Again, if you told me this is the third ranked defense by DVOA and the fourth ranked offense or fifth ranked offense, I would I would say that’s that’s potentially true. I think that’s a pretty narrow band of outcomes, though. Like, if we’re talking about they’re one spot better by DVU, like that that’s not even really the spirit of the concept here. Okay, this is the Jordan Love MVP season. He comes in, he’s locked in, he’s talking to the media, he seems more uh assertive, he’s been a great leader, he has uh more weapons around him, more depth along the offensive line. Marshon Lloyd comes back. He’s got every weapon at his disposal. One of the best offensive coaches in the league. This is an MVP season incoming for Jordan Love. Frankly, I think the case was better last year. And I made the case that I thought he would he would play at a level that would put him in that conversation. I think he will play at a level that will put him in that conversation. The problem for the Packers, frankly, is they will have to have the season the Lions had last year where they just get lucky a couple times. You know, they’re a 12 or 13 win team by quality. They get lucky a couple times and they win 14 or 15 games. That has to be for Jordan Love to get considered just because Lamar Jackson still exists. I think Patrick Mahomes is going to have a bounceback season. Josh Allen still exists and Jaden Daniels still exists. There’s just a lot of quarterbacks out there that those teams, the Ravens are going to be really good. The Bills are going to be really good. The Chiefs are going to be really good. The Commanders are going to be solid. Do I do I think Jordan Love can play well enough to be an MVP at some point in his career? Yes. I think this year with this schedule in this division, it is going to be extremely extremely tough. What you need, we saw this with Aaron Rogers with Tom Brady, is you need a division with at least one or two full-blown Paties. Like just teams where remember 2014 when they’re up on the Bears a bazillion to nothing in the first half. Aaron Rogers throws six touchdowns. like you need those kinds of games and this schedule just does not provide that stuff. Do I think Jordan L can have the best year of his career? Do I expect him if he’s healthy to have the best season of his career? Yes. But and you know I get labeled a homer homer sometimes. I would not have my money on a Jordan Love MVP bet. I don’t think they they necessarily want him to have to throw the ball 600 times this year. probably means they’re losing a lot of these games. They’d like to h use his arm to get in a position to win and then run the ball. I do think Jordan Love is taking a step forward. He’s locked in, but it’s an overreaction and I just don’t I don’t really see the path unless they just have an incredible winning season. I think the team season would have to be what would carry them and really the only thing in that scenario would be Jordan Love. So yeah, that seems unlikely. All right, we got the overreactions out of our system a little bit. Uh let’s move forward and talk about uh training camp as we move forward here on Lockdown Packers. Have you ever decided at the last minute to head to a ball game with friends or family? Maybe it’s game day and you suddenly realize you want to be in the stands. It’s happened to me with a concert. Decided pretty last minute, like a week out, hey, it’d be great to go to Chris Stapleton. So, got tickets. Well, Game Time makes it possible to do it. Save money on tickets so you can splurge on food, drinks, merch, or even a bigger group to go with you. Game time makes buying tickets fast and simple. Prices on the app actually drop the closer you get to first pitch. And they’ve got incredible lastminute deals, clear seat views, and the lowest price guarantee that takes the worry out of buying. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app. Create an account and use code lockdown NFL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem code lockdown NFL for $20 off. Download the Game Time app today. Last minute tickets, the lowest price guaranteed. We could have gone forever on the overreactions and maybe we should have done more. Like I was thinking about, oh, Lucas Vaness is definitely taking a step forward. But that’s one of those where it’s just like, yeah, no, we just need we actually need to see more on that. Um, I could see it, but like relax. I want to flip this a different way because around the NFL. There is unfortunately part of training camp is guys go down. Justin Fields carded off. Now it turns out he’s got a dislocated non- big toe, which I’m glad they they threw in that that qualifier, not the big toe, but the Packers are going to deal with injuries. Aaron Banks hurt. uh we don’t really have an understanding of of what the what the injury is or or what the the term is in terms of how long it’s going to be. Injuries are going to strike. So, who are the players that the Packers can least afford to lose? I think we we did this with Jason. The most valuable players are the players you could least afford to lose. So that part of it like I think is obvious like it’s Xavier McKenna, it’s Zack Tom, it’s your best players. It’s your best players. So rather than do that because that’s not very interesting. How about what’s the plan? What’s the plan if you lose some of these players? Well, we know the plan if you lose Jordan Love. I almost said Aaron Rogers. What’s the plan if you lose Jordan Love? Well, we saw it. It’s Malik Willis. And that’s why when I when I joked I was joking about a trade with the Jets for Malik Willis. Um I got a lot of push back from people that were like, “No, we need him. He’s valuable.” And I agree. He is valuable. The Packers know what kind of offense they want to run when Jordan Love is not out there. That’s incredibly valuable. We just kind of take Jason’s list, Zack Tom. Well, we we kind of know like Jordan Morgan’s the right tackle or Jordan Morgan’s the right guard. Rasheed Walker is going to play left tackle. Would you move Jordan Morgan to right tackle? I kind of think you would if you’re going to give him the chance to to train at left tackle and right guard and so he’s at least used to playing on the right side. I think if Zack Tom gets hurt, it makes all the sense in the world to regardless of where Jordan, unless Jordan Morgan wins the left tackle job to play Jordan Morgan in Zack Tom spot, you can put Shane Ryan or Shawn Ryan, excuse me, right in there at at right guard. No harm, no foul. Aaron Banks was the reason I kind of thought of this bit because he got hurt and again we don’t really know what the situation is and they put in Travis Glover and I went oh that’s interesting rather than say you know moving Shawn Ryan over they because Shawn Ryan has to play center Jordan Morgan has to play guard they have to bring in a backup. Okay so what happens if Ellen Jenkins is actually there if Jordan Morgan wins that right guard drop? Well, we know Shawn Ryan moves to left guard, I think. Or maybe Elton Jenkins, maybe maybe Elton Jenkins stay goes back to left guard, his old position, and Shawn Ryan goes to center. That’s interesting. Then we talked about what you do if the pass rush goes down. If Rashan Garry gets hurt or some of your depth pieces get hurt, by the way, Brentton Cox showing some flashes reportedly in in training camp so far. You have some other guys, but I think Jeff Hafley has has locked into this approach where it is simulated pressures. I think he would bring more real pressures and coverage disguise so that it’s not so incumbent that you win one-on-one with four. you are sending for, but maybe you you are able to get a free rusher or you’re able to create a little indecision in the quarterback and that gives your rushers an extra half second to get home and then you don’t have to win so quickly. I think that makes a lot of sense for the Packers. What about Tucker Craft? Well, they have Luke Musgrave, but they don’t have that guy in the run game. Like I went back and watched some of the well I went back and watched every Jordan Morgan rep and we’ll talk about that I think next week. I wrote about it today for the leap a newsletter I would love for you to subscribe to and and I’ve I’ve heard the some of the criticisms some people who are both subscribed to the leap and um lockdown packers listeners feel like there is too much redundancy in what we do here. Of course, if I’m going to research something for the leap, I don’t always have the bandwidth to talk about it in the full depth. So, I do unlocked on Packers, but I I want to try and space them out. So, it’s going to go on the leap first. We will try and wait here to talk about it, assuming it’s not breaking news. Um, and then that is also being respectful of the people who are, no offense to you guys, but they’re paying for the content and you’re not. Um, we appreciate everyone that subscribes to the leap and who listens to locked on Packers. We love you all equally. Um, yeah. So, uh, Tucker Craft, I was watching all the Jordan Morgan, that was where my brain was going. I was watching all the Jordan Morgan plays and there were a couple runs against the Lions where you get the combo block with Jordan Morgan and Rasheed Walker. They bury some that buried Alien McNeel. So like not just somebody, a real somebody and then Tucker Craft comes in and just washes his guy out and it’s it’s a gash run from Josh Jacobs. That’s going to be tough to recreate. They don’t really have a guy who can do that. But I do think Luke Musgrave in that he’s going to do some of those runaway things there there’s there is that part of it. I think he can do some of the schemed up stuff that they’re they’re wanting to do with Tucker Craft. just the like can you win one-on-one. The Packers don’t really ask them to do that anyway. But if that was going to be part of your offense, I don’t think Luke Musgrave is really as ideal for that. But they did let him do that in 2023. Remember Luke Musgrave won that job. Beat out Tucker Craft. So they have they have very good depth and options for all of these things. Now we’re learning Jaden Reed. It’s Matthew Golden. He probably becomes that slot player. Maybe that’s always where he was going to be best fit anyway. Maybe it’s Seavon like Seavon Williams is the gadget guy. But they have and we talked about this a couple weeks ago, months ago now probably. Seavon Williams, they tried a couple deep shots to him and I think that they’re going to try and use that size speed like he’s a 44 guy at 63 220. He can motor at his size. And that’s something that I think we just can’t we can’t underestimate that that ability to get deep is is incredibly incredibly valuable. Okay, so Josh Jacobs, this is the one where and this was why he was in my top five. I kind of don’t know what they do. Like presumably like what they did with Aaron Jones when they moved to to AJ Dylan was they still ran the ball enough to to credibly use play action and and those things, but it was a lot more empty. a lot more gun and they kind of just let Jordan Love do the thing. I wonder if that’s what we see if Josh Jacobs goes down because we don’t have any idea if Marshall Loy can carry the load. Now, they like Emanuel Wilson. They like Chris Brooks. Those guys are nice players. I don’t really know how good they are at running back. I’m not saying they’re bad. I’m saying I don’t know how good they are because we haven’t really seen them get time because Josh Jacobs was just a monster last year and eight innings and did everything you wanted. So what do you what do you do? Where do you go? Like if you have a plan for Jordan Love and it’s this Malik Willis running game, all kinds of cool stuff, do you just have to lean into more of that stuff? Do you have to get a little bit more gimmicky or do do you just run less? These are options. You hope the Packers don’t have to go to any of these things that none of these key guys get gets hurt, but chances are key guys gets hurt from basically every team. You’re just going to have to deal with that reality. All right, coming up, uh, I had a chance to sit down with our pal Lauren Cox, um, from Locked on Bears and talk about the start of the Ben Johnson era. And I talked to, uh, Luke Braun over at Locked on Vikings as well the other day on Locked on Sports Today. And I just I didn’t I didn’t I’m not going to play the Vikings clip. You can go listen to it on Locked on Sports Today. The Bears clip is on locked on Sports Today today. There is just something different about the Bears. So, I’m going to bring you that conversation with Lauren next on Locked on Packers. This episode is presented by Yahoo Fantasy. Fantasy football is back. So, fire up the group chats, get your draft board ready, and buckle up with a season filled with breakouts, busts, and all the overreactions we live for. It’s all going down on Yahoo Fantasy. This year, me and Lockdown Packers are playing Yahoo Fantasy, and you should be, too. Whether you’re a first-time or a veteran making your millionth league, I’ve been using Yahoo for as long as I have been playing fantasy football. For as long as I have had teams, I have used Yahoo Fantasy. This year will be no different. I can tell you that right now. To celebrate 20 years, 28 years of fantasy greatness, Yahoo Fantasy is dropping 28 big new features over 28 days, giving you more ways to play, more ways to draft, and more ways to win. It all begins August 4th. Stay tuned and get started by creating or joining a Yahoo Fantasy football league at yahoo fantasy.com/lockdon NFL. That’s yahoo fantasy.com/lockdon NFL. And let’s make this fantasy season the best one yet. The locked on NFL top 100 is here. Voted on by the NFL’s hosts of the Locked on Podcast Network. Our top 100 was formed by experts that cover these teams and players every day. Find the full list on Lockdown Sports Today on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast. Plus, you can go back and listen to my reaction to the ridiculous voting uh on our Lockdown Packers show the other day. Also, we have a locked on college players 100 coming out and you guys loved the locked on NFL. Like some of you whined about the rankings, but it’s I think it’s the biggest show in lockdown sports today history. It has been bonkers cuckoo bananas and I appreciate all of you for uh supporting it if you did. Let’s go to my conversation with Lauren. The Chicago Bears open a new era of Chicago Bears football, not just because of the new pope. Uh Ben Johnson as the head coach. They’re trying to turn the page here from the Matt Eberloose era such that he was there long enough to call that one an era. And it was a little bit of a bumpy open to practice. We heard Ben Johnson uh yelling at some guys. There was some some harsh words being used. Lauren Cox would never use harsh words uh from lockdown Bears. He joins me now. Uh Lauren, what do you want to see from the early stages of this offense understanding that this is a a long-term play here? Yeah, I think it’s this it’s this newfound accountability. It’s it’s a wild concept, but like players being held to a higher standard. It’s something that we’ve heard snippets of throughout the offseason, but like really not letting any little detail go. Like when we hear hear about Ben Judson yelling at the offense, it’s like they they came out in seven on sevens and players lined up in the wrong spot twice in a row. He goes, “All right, you guys are out. We’re putting the backups like we got we only have 90 minutes of practice. So like if you guys can’t get this right right now, you got to know this stuff.” So like, you know, they’re not just saying like, “Well, it’s fine. It’s the first day of training camp, whatever.” It’s no, like let’s let’s hold this to a higher standard and not just let what’s been okay or good enough in the past just be good enough. And that’s what can give Bears fans some kind of hope that maybe this time things can be different. What do you hope to see from Caleb Williams in in the early parts of training camp? Again, this is a new offense. He We got all kinds of reporting, Lauren. you’ve been covering this extensively about what a a uh you know what show uh the coaching behind the scenes for Caleb Williams was last year. This is a lot of new stuff for him. So, what do you want to see early on here? Yeah, I think it’s about setting the some of the foundational stuff here that like Ben Johnson will, you know, he’ll scheme up the the fun brilliant plays later on, but you need a quarterback whose footwork is precise and whose footwork lines up with the timing of the plays, right? And if you can get the the basic simple steps down of, hey, yeah, on your fifth step you got to be looking here and then on your hitch you got to be looking there, then you can build so much of the fun structure off off of that. But if if you don’t have that sort of baseline sort of really specific footwork dynamics really locked in, like that’s going to be the foundational stuff. So that’s why they’re being really hard on Caleb Williams about a lot of the stuff. And there’s going to be some sloppy bumps along the way, but you feel like he’s certainly a talented enough quarterback that once you get that foundation set, then when the rules have to get broken, when a play breaks down, like that’s when he can still work his magic off of that, or at least, you know, that’s the theory. We’ve we’ve seen theory not be enough before, right? Uh, one thing that that stuck out to me, Lauren, I was looking at um neutral pass rates, basically how often teams run the ball, early downs mostly. um when the game is still on the line, the Lions in the Ben Johnson era ran it a ton. Um and and I do wonder if maybe we’re overindexing on the Colston Lovelin pick, the Luther Burden pick, the excitement we have for Roma Dunay as a prospect, thinking that this is going to be some like Ben Johnson, they’re going to call the flee flicker play every play kind of offense when the Lions were a grind it out, we’re going to go 12 plays and we might run it 10 on a drive if it’s working kind of offense, too. Are are we are we underestimating what a big piece of the offense this run game needs to be for this Chicago team? Yeah, I think needs to be is the right word there because I think that the thing you weigh there is like well would you rather be getting the ball in the hands of more Dunay and Loveland or DeAndre Swift, right? Like at the end of the day, it’s not a it’s not an overly talented backfield, but you hope that all the investments they made in the offensive line, plus maybe a more cohesive run scheme and and a really structured game plan can just make DeAndre Swift certainly at least good enough in this backfield to be able to lean on it. But even Ben Johnson this week said like, we haven’t decided whether we’re going to be an outside zone team like Detroit or if we’re going to be a gap scheme team. like we’re going to see what works best for this offensive line, what works best for these backs and we’re really going to work on all that at training camp and then kind of build the identity from there. But we can’t we shouldn’t just expect that he’s going to pick up what he did in Detroit and just apply it to this Bears roster whole all over because there’s going to be quite a few tweaks and and intricacies that are specific to this roster. Uh we we did get early word there’s there’s a soft tissue injury for for Luther Burton. They’re they’re trying to tight ends notoriously take a long time, although Sam Laaporta in Detroit did not take a long time. Um, so they’re going to need the weapons when the passing game comes around. But they’re also going to need a defense. The best way to try and win games is that Lions defense, they they matured. They came together. Aaron Glenn coached the hell out of those guys. Um, defensively, there’s a lot of pieces here. New system. What’s what’s the what’s the vibes? What’s the feeling around this defense right now? Yeah, the feeling is that Dennis Allen is going to put certainly these corners in a position to be a little bit more physical and aggressive, which I think lines up with the skill sets of guys like Jaylen Johnson and Tyreek Stevenson a little bit better. And that, you know, he’s been looking forward to the speed at linebacker from Tmaine Edmonds. And I think a smart player on the inside for TJ Edwards is moving back to the middle linebacker spot. And Edmonds is going to play the weak side linebacker so he can flow a little bit more. But I still have real concerns about this pass rush and how well they’re going to be able to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks. And so I think it’s going to be a good a good sort of rochark test of of Dennis Allen’s ability here to say like can he make a little bit more out of a little bit less up front. I feel like he did that at times in New Orleans and still had good defenses even without like a defensive line full of top flight pass rushers. But I think there’s going to need to be some creativity in there to whether it’s different formations, blitzes, stunts, moving guys up and down the line of scrimmage to create pass rush when maybe the pure talent isn’t 100% what you might want it to be. That’s Lauren Cox. Like I said, go check out my conversation with Luke Braun from Lockdown Sports today. That would have been yesterday. um I believe yesterday because JJ McCarthy is probably the most interesting player. Like no no no single player has a wider band of outcomes that is potentially more impactful in the playoff race than JJ McCarthy. He could be bad and the Vikings could win five or six games or he could be good right away and they the Vikings could bend Rothllessberger this thing to 12 or 13 wins and they could be really dangerous in the NFC. I have no idea. I don’t think the Vikings have any idea. Luke Braun certainly doesn’t have any idea. And so it was really fun to talk to him. So, go go go check out Locked on Sports today for that conversation with Lucan. Of course, we’re going to be doing crossovers and all the normal stuff that we do over the course of the season. But, I just thought I’d I’d start I’d start here. I do want to talk about the Lions next week. Um, and uh, man, we got a lot we got a lot here going on. This is We’re having fun. We’re having fun here on Locked on Packers. All right. Follow me on the social medias. Uh, follow the podcast on uh the social medias. Follow it wherever you get podcast. Subscribe to the podcast. Leave a rating. Leave a review. subscriber over on our YouTube page so you can stay locked on Packers.

It’s only been two days, so let’s speculate recklessly. Ok, we won’t, but instead we’ll try on some overreactions to see which ones might stick from Green Bay Packers camp. Plus, what’s the plan if key players get hurt? And a check-in with the Chicago Bears from Lorin Cox and Locked on Bears.

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Peter Bukowski, co-founder of The Leap, brings you a daily look at the Green Bay Packers year round with Locked On Packers! Go beyond the latest injury news into what you’re seeing on the field, how it works, and how it might change with new players or against a division rival. It’s the podcast for fans who know what happened, they want to know why and how!

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