Sharks’ Will Smith Poised for BREAKOUT Season | Is 65 Points Within Reach?

Sharks’ Will Smith Poised for BREAKOUT Season | Is 65 Points Within Reach?

The year 2 Will Smith breakout is coming. Your Locked On Sharks, your daily podcast on the San Jose Sharks, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hello, welcome to Locked On Sharks, the premier hockey podcast covering your favorite team in the Bay Area. My name is JD Young, caretaker at the reef, also the co-host of Locked on NHL. I want to thank you for making the Lockdown Sharks your first listen. Proudly part of the Lockdown Network cover your team every day. If you want to be an everyday, all you have to do just follow along wherever you get podcast or you can watch on YouTube as well. And today we’re going to be discussing Will Smith. So, we’re going to be looking at his uh rookie season, highlighting especially that second half of the year. Then we’re going to be looking at other players who are in similar situations as Will Smith, guys who played one year in the NCAA before jumping over to CO uh over to the NHL and how that year two went for them and then determine what type of jump should we expect from Will Smith and why I think spoiler it’s probably going to be a pretty uh pretty sizable jump for Smith. So before we get to all that, do want to let you guys know that today’s episode is brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code lockdown at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. All right. Uh Mr. Will Smith who uh after much halaloo uh last off season signed his ELC came over uh played uh full season in the NHL this year. I know remember this time last year we were talking about does Will Smith play in the AHL? Like what does what’s kind of the plan for Will Smith? Uh if you remember also uh the Sharks very much kept the training wheels on Will Smith the first half of the season as they uh did not have him play backtobacks. They gave him development days to continue to kind of get used to uh playing in the NHL. Give him some time off. Um also continued to work on, you know, gaining muscle and and preparing it. Uh a lot of people didn’t like how the way the Sharks handle that. Uh Will Smith had himself a pretty good season. um we utilize kind of that that January 20th game against um the Boston Bruins as as kind of like a uh a big turning point in Will Smith in his development, right? Um for a a player who really took off the second half of of the year for the San Jose Sharks as he earned more ice time and felt more comfortable and again really got used to playing in the NHL. So, let’s look at how Smith played this year and and of course kind of focused in on that second half of the season. So, uh Will Smith, who uh again 19, he just turned 20. Uh so, he’s 20 years old. He’ll be 20 in this upcoming season. He played 74 games last year. Again, missed, you know, those those uh eight games because of developments, etc. Like, it wasn’t really injury. It was more of just, you know, kind of keeping him the training wheels on him. ended up with 18 goals, 27 assists with 127 shots on goal. While playing 1551 uh average time on ice, 46.92% to Corsy4. So when he was on the ice, the Sharks took 46.92% of the shot attempts. Goals for 48.94. So when he was on the ice, the Sharks scored 48.94% of the even strength goals as five on five. looking at his evolving hockey card. Um, playing just below first line finish, which is at at five on five, which is what you’d expect for Smith. Um, 26 percentile overall player. Again, 19-year-old season, 70th percentile offensively, 3 percentile def defensively, and that’s always been Will Smith’s kind of calling card is his offense, right? His offense is so good that it’s going to uh make up for the defensive lapses. And we saw the defense, I think, get better as the season went on. But still, it’s it’s not Will Smith’s calling card is to be a kind of shut down, silky type of defenseman. He is going to drive offense, and he did that very well at a a uh young age. uh had goals above replacement, expected goals above replacement right in line um for kind of you know in line where it wasn’t like he’s just scoring a bunch of goals but not actually producing expected goals or he was you know wasn’t uh scoring goals even though he was producing a lot of expected goals both kind of right in line with what you would expect for for him. though. Um, looking at his advanced hockey stack card from JFresh, 34th percentile player, 83 percentile offensively, 3 percentile defensively, 7 percentile on the power play. Um, finishing good goals, good first assists, like creating those high-end, you know, beautiful assist like that’s what he did very well. Played against solid competition, had pretty good teammates as well. So, uh, and kind of looking at his utilization, average top six two-way forward, uh, where he faced good competition, but he also got a fair amount of offensive zones, which is what you would kind of expect for Will Smith. So, um, you know, and oh, forgot his uh, uh, all three zones card. kind of what you saw from I mean not anywhere near from the celebrity one where it’s just all bright blue but some of the same kind of big areas of like the boss retrievalss per 60 and um you know kind of issues there and that’s mostly because of just trying to do too much basically. Um he did a very good job of again creating those uh shots off of passes per 60. So kind of creating offense for other players um creating those one-times like high-end one-times. he did a very good job of doing that. That’s what we saw from Will Smith, right, is how often would he create something for somebody else and of course he scored a fair amount of goals as well too last year as a 19-year-old in the NHL. So, um, I think though if you really focus on the second half of the season where he kind of gained his confidence and became a, you know, bigger part of the Sharks and what they did again that kind of January 20th. So, the really the, you know, the second half of the season, the last three months of the year, um, he was a bas in that time he’s played 34 games. He had 12 goals, 18 assists for 30 points. So almost a point per game player while playing almost 18 or 1740 a night. Again, he was uh a year average at just under 16 minutes. So the second half of the season really was started to eat up some more ice time. Um like it it’s kind of crazy. Look at some of the names that he outproduced uh in that. like he had the exact same stat line as Matt Bay Mitchov despite Mitchov playing one more uh game um than him. Um also Will Smith had a positive plus minus if you’re into plus minus. I don’t really care about plus minus but just wanted to say um he had one less point than Melbrini in the same amount of time. Uh and again Celbr is playing 20 minutes a night. Um, you look at, you know, Matthew Ny had the same amount of points as Matthew Ny. Uh, had more points than Leo Carlson. And Carlson played two more games than him. Had more points than Dylan Larkin, more points than Mark Stone, more points than Tomas Hurdle, more points than Cole Coughfield, more points than your Slowski. All in the same time span, right? And again, I’m not putting Will Smith above any of these players right now. more points than Connor Bard. Uh but I guess just, you know, I really want to emphasize how great of a second half Will Smith had for the San Jose Sharks. And like if that’s the Will Smith we’re getting going forward, that’s that’s going to be a huge part of what the Sharks are trying to build, right, with Celbrini and Smith and Eklund and Misa and etc, etc. um Will Smith being basically a point- per game player would really one um help solidify uh whatever the Sharks decide to do if it’s you know Smith on the second line uh if it’s Smith with Celabbrini uh what like that really just solidify as a foundational player. two is going to make Melbourne’s life a lot easier because you have a running mate in Will Smith who can play and produce um just as much as you can. Um like you need, right? You can’t just have one guy out there like and I think Will Smith is well on his way. But just that confidence, right, for a player to kind of, you know, not just, all right, it’s it’s one thing to have a week of it of like, cool, you know, scoring for a week, playing really well this week, and then you have kind of have a down week, but, you know, 34 games, three months of it basically. Um, that’s a nice big sample size. And yes, I know there was some time off there with the world, uh, you know, with the, uh, the four nations face off, etc., But um that’s still a like a legitimate sample size for a guy who’s played 74 games. 34 of them you were almost a point per game player. So um massive massive steps from Will Smith. And again kind of like the same thing with Cell Brun. Smith’s not going to have to have the same summer where you know you’re playing in the rookie faceoff. You’re going to be playing in rookie camp. um you’re gonna have to play like we we kind of know Will Smith’s position on the team and yes, while he’s going to be transitioning to a center now, right? He he’s kind of solidified as an NHL player and you believe he’s going to be an NHL player going forward. So, what should we kind of expect from Will Smith? Then what if other players who were kind of in the same position, uh, top end picks, all the guys we’re looking at were top five picks, played one year at college, and then went to the NHL. How do they perform in their second year? We’re going to be looking at Mattie Beners, Kent Johnson, uh Logan Culie, and Adam Fentilli. And what can the Sharks, what can we kind of expect to see after reviewing these guys and their performances in the second season? So, uh, we’re going to start looking at these guys here in just one second. Ever wish manager money felt easier? With Monarch Money, it can be. 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That’s monarchmoney.com code locked on NHL for half off your first year. All right, before we continue, do of course want to thank you for making Locked on Sharks your first listen. If you haven’t yet, perfect time to subscribe. Uh we have more interviews coming this week. Uh so make sure you’re following along for that. And of course, if you missed last week, uh Joshua Ravensburgen joined the show. Uh great conversation with him. Always fun to talk with goalies because they’re just just a little bit different, dudes. So, um, plus we’ll continue to kind of get to know some of these top end draft picks from the San Jose Sharks. Uh, so make sure you guys are following along wherever you get podcast and of course you can watch on YouTube as well. All right. Uh, let so four guys kind of over the last couple seasons who again played a year of college and then went to the NHL, right? Most these guys played other than uh Adam Ventili, most these guys got drafted, played a year of school and then uh went to the NHL after that. Fentil is the only one who made the jump straight to the NHL after being drafted, but he had played a full season um in college before that. So, um let’s start out with with we’re going to go kind of in chronological order of their draft uh and draft year. So, we’re going to start out with Maddie Beners. Uh so Matty Beneers of course w was taken uh second overall way back in the 20 feels like way back but way back in the 2021 uh draft. Second overall by the Seattle Kraken. Um spent a year at Michigan where he scored uh actually sorry he had two years at Michigan. My bad. But still uh year at Michigan uh after his draft year 37 games, 20 goals, 23 assists, 43 points. played a small amount of games in the NHL that year and 10 games he had nine points uh before making a full season in the NHL. So, we’re we’re gonna kind of count that 10 game sample size with you know uh as part like we’re not really going to count that, right? We’re going to be looking at full years here. So, uh the Kraken first season with the Kraken, right? He he played 80 games, had 24 goals, 33 assists, 57 points. Uh was the rookie of the like won the Calder that year. felt like Matty Baneers was was going to be this massive massive piece, right? And I still think Matty Baneers is going to be really good, but the second season like you you definitely saw a drop in production. So, um looking at Baneers that second season, uh 77 games, 15 goals, 22 assist, 133 shots on goal. Uh played 1758 average time on ISO, 18 minutes a game. uh 50.98% Corsy4, 50% goals four uh during that time. While the again the raw counting stats were definitely dropped um you know kind of going from right 24 goals to 15, 33 assists to 22. Um he played relatively the same amount of time on ice, like literally 10 seconds uh or actually no, he played a a big, you know, almost a minute more um that season as he kind of continued to gain more responsibilities. But the Kraken, if you remember, uh they took a big dive, right, his rookie year, right? They made the playoffs. Um everything was great. then that next year, right, they just weren’t the same team. They’ve been kind of in that that boat as a team just trying to figure things out here over the last couple seasons. So, um, and they just didn’t have the same scoring production that they did from other players as well. So, um, Beneers, who is one thing they’ll keep in mind, Baneers full-on center, has been a center since day one. Will Smith, right, is going to be making that transition to center um, at least for this year. and we’ll kind of see what goes on with with the Misa Smith um who kind of takes that that 2C job long term. But um the the the thought is that Will Smith is going to be playing center this year. Um we know of course Matty Baneer stepped in has been a center uh kind of a second line center to begin with and then has now kind of taken over the first line center position. So um interesting to see that his kind of production drop a little bit that that second season. Um, but you can also again point to a team like the Kraken who I think we can safely say, right, way out produced expectations year two and then kind of fell back to the pack in year three. And we we know the Sharks didn’t outproduce expectations last year and we’re hoping to see kind of that slow build from continue to see from that slow build from them. though. Um, another guy who not a center but a a top five winger, uh, also from that same draft is Kent Johnson. Uh, Kent Johnson, who just like, uh, played two year he played two years at at Michigan. Um, so again, a little bit different, but still played two years at Michigan. In his final season, he had 32 games, played, eight goals, 29 assists for 37 points. also got that like ninegame sample size uh with the Blue Jackets at the end of the 21-22 season before making the jump fulltime to the NHL in the 2223 season. At 2223 season, he played 79 games, 16 goals, 24 assists for 40 points. Uh so pretty solid production again um that first season. Second year was definitely not the season you would expect. He only played 42 games in the NHL. He also played um he played 10 games in the AHL with the Cleveland Monsters where he just dominated. He had five goals, 10 assists for 15 points in those uh 10 games and I think you know they realized he’s just needed to play in the NHL basically. But um 42 games in the NNHL at uh just not the not the same kind of production that you would hope for, right? um six goals, 10 assists with only 62 shots on goal while playing 1333 average time on ice. Uh 4802 courts for 53.85% goals for. So um again, just a guy who really couldn’t establish himself as a full-time NHL player that second season. Um, so this one is I think the the cautious ca like if things go bad for Will Smith if where you do have that type of step down type of production from him. Um, and I think you would easily point to Kent Johnson’s second year. Last year, Kent Johnson bounced back with 57 points uh in 68 games, including 24 goals and saw his ice jump from 1333 to 1718 and became a top, you know, top six player for Columbus as they went on uh way above expectations last year. So, I do think though with with Columbus, right, and that was a team that um struggled that 23 24 season um and Ken Johnson kind of not taking that next step was a big reason why. Um, but you saw year three for for Ken Johnson become a different player. And also, I mean, Ken Johnson, you know, much like Will Smith, known for his offense, not much known for his defense there. And right, you you knew with Kent Johnson, he’s going to be a kind of human joystick type of player, but uh always was a winger while Will Smith center um at heart, center by trade, and we’re going to see what happens with Will Smith there. So, both those players kind of a little bit of a cautious, you know, like h in that second season despite having good rookie campaigns. We’re going to look at and Fanti who both made big jumps in year two and especially Kulie who I think Smith might be the closest kind out of all these guys to kind of look at. So, uh yeah, we’ll get to that here in just one second. All right, before we finish up, do of course want to thank you for making Locked on Sharks your first listen. Uh when you’re done with this episode, go check out Locked on NHL. Uh while we’re only down to three episodes a week now, we’re still pumping out five a week over at Locked On NHL, where we’re covering the biggest stories throughout the season, plus starting to get you ready for uh the upcoming season uh with local coverage you love from Locked On. Find Locked On YouTube, wherever you listen to podcast. Okay. Um Logan Coulie and this is the one, right? because I think there’s a lot of similarities and Kohley I think is a it’s safe to say is a you know better well-rounded player you know especially kind of coming out of college but play style kind of situations this one I think is the the one where you probably kind of perk your ears up a little bit. So, uh, Logan Culie, uh, USNDTP right in his, uh, draft year, goes to play at University of Minnesota where he has a pretty solid, you know, uh, very good, uh, time there. 39 games, has 22 goals, 38 assists, 60 points during that time. Again, remember, Will Smith put up 70 points uh, in in 41 games. So, pretty similar, you would say, at least when it came to production wise, right? Um and then first full season with the Coyotes as a rookie played 82 games, 20 goals, 24 assists for 44 points. Will Smith again this year for the Sharks. 74 games, 18 assists, 27 uh sorry, 18 goals, 27 assists, 45 points, right? And we know the Sharks not a good team. Not that the the Coyotes, right? Not not the best team, but maybe like a little bit of ahead of where the shark easily to say shark, you know, a little bit ahead of where the sharks are. But this next season, last last year, as you know, now the Utah Mammoth as they make their, you know, transition, you saw Kulie really take a big jump. Um, 75 games this year, 25 goals, 30 assists, 158 shots on goal, playing 1752 average time on ice. Um 50.39% Corsy4 57.45% goals four. Um very similar in the like started kind of on the wing and then by the end of the season he was playing center and then this last year uh was playing center kind of fulltime for Utah. uh right like you know even seeing the the ice team for the ice time sorry excuse me for Kulie where 1549 the first year very similar to to sell to Will Smith jumped up to almost 18 minutes this last year right as he continued to kind of gain more confidence and kind of be the guy for Utah so um I think if you’re looking for like the most like the one that you’re you’re kind kind of expecting I think the one, right? And you saw Utah make a big jump this year, right? And they added some big pieces on the blue line and you’re seeing some of their young players naturally grow. Um I think I don’t think the Sharks are going to be like playoff caliber. I do think the Sharks still I know there’s some n there’s people that are pessimistic. Maybe I’m I’m being a little optimistic, but there there is going to be a jump in play with Ascarov and I think with some of the defensive pieces on the blue line. And I think this is the template for you of what to kind of expect for year two for Will Smith is that 60 to 70 points, right? Probably about 25 goals. Um, and we saw Will Smith get better and better with the scoring as the year went on. This is the one where I think that you kind of look at the most. So, finally, Adam Fentilli, who was in the same draft, right, as as Will Smith. uh Fentelli who went right the pick right before uh before Will Smith. Um he played one year at Michigan uh 36 goals or 36 games, sorry, excuse me, 30 goals, 35 assists, 65 total points during that time. Uh went and played with the Blue Jackets uh right after getting drafted. Played 49 games. remember he missed a good chunk of time with an injury that season at 12 goals, 15 assists, 27 points on a, you know, pretty tough Blue Jackets team. This last year though, right, as Fentil really took the reigns of this team and kind of earned that 1C spot and they really kind of took over um and became a bigger and bigger piece, you saw the production spike. 82 games, 31 goals, 25 assists, 158 shots on goal, playing 1729 tonight. Uh Corsy4 6 46.93% goals for 54.46% for Fantelli this year. Um that ice time jumped from again 1543 to about 17.5 minutes uh which is what you know much bigger for him. Um he also kind of played in the like started on the wing that rookie year, also played some center as well. This year really solidified himself as a full-time center for uh the the Blue Jackets. So um Ventil though I think you know much say higher floor kind of coming out like in his two-way game much better than Will Smith’s. You know I think it’s very fair to say coming out of Michigan compared to where Will Smith is. But again, like out of all these ones, I think the Logan one is probably the uh one that you you circle and like that’s what I think the realistic expectations are for Will Smith, right? If Smith goes from, you know, playing 74 games to, you know, 80 82 games this year and he’s putting up 25 goals and he’s putting up 40 assists and gives you 65 points this year, I think that’s realistic expectations for Will Smith as he grows into a second line center, right? Um, and I think the Sharks did a good job of getting some veteran guys who can come in and help him, right? if it’s Kersev and I assume it’s going to be Jeff Skinner or whomever else they want to put on that or if it’s Equin on that line or like the Sharks now have you know with the additions especially of Kersev and and Skinner guys who can be top you know at least middle six forwards right and we’ve seen Kersev play topline minutes with uh Bard I know some people are really down on Jeff Skinner because he didn’t have the greatest season last year with Edmonton, but uh was kind of asked to take a much reduced role um on a much better team. But if you go back to his time with the Sabres on a very bad team, like he can definitely score, right? And the Sharks need more guys who can score. And I think Will Smith is going to if Smith and Skinner get put together, I think you’re going to see a lot of production between those two of Will Smith, right? You go back to what Will Smith’s really good at, right? It’s creating one-times and creating assists in high dinger areas. Jeff Skinner, noted goal scorer, going is good at getting to the front of the paint uh and banging in goals right there. And I think Smith is going to be able to find him and set him up. And I think Jeff Skinner still got enough tread on the tires uh that he’s going to be able to uh put those home. Do I think he has a tire to fully type of impact? Maybe, maybe not. But I think Jeff Skinner is still good enough where he’s going to be able to uh help Will Smith see that production really increase. So I expect Will Smith to be, you know, right around that 65 point mark. Um, you know, and and be that 25 goal scorer for the Sharks. And, you know, if you’re kind of trying to rank where who scores the most, I assume it’s going to be celebrating. then you you just put 30 goals in for Tyler to Foley, right? Um then like would you be surprised if Will Smith was the third lean goal scorer on the Sharks? Because I wouldn’t, right? Maybe Jess Skinner gets in there, but I think that’s that’s probably going to be your third leading goal scorer um on the Sharks this year is going to be Will Smith. And I think he’s going to have a big season. And we’ll see what happens if the center um you know, if he becomes a center long term or not. But uh I think that’s going to be the big question for him is can he be a center? But I’m I’m not worried about the production. I think the production is going to come. I think you’re going to see continue to see what we saw in the second half of the season. That was a very confident Will Smith who’s kind of found his role and is going to continue to build off of that. And I think 65 points like that’s right where I’m putting the overunder on. So, I I expect a big jump for Smith this season. So, uh we’ll be back later this week as we continue to dive into uh some of these Sharks prospects. So, make sure you guys are following along wherever you get uh podcast and of course you can watch on YouTube as well. Follow the show on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram at Lockdown Sharks. Follow me on Twitter and Blue Skyfry Hole. Uh until Tuesday night, bye friends.

Will Smith’s sophomore surge is on the horizon for the San Jose Sharks. After a promising rookie campaign, the young center appears poised for a breakout year. JD Young breaks down Smith’s impressive first NHL season, highlighting his 45-point performance and second-half surge. Advanced stats paint a picture of a player with high offensive upside, ranking in the 70th percentile despite being just 19 years old. The host draws intriguing comparisons to other recent top draft picks like Matty Beniers, Kent Johnson, and Logan Cooley, suggesting that Cooley’s trajectory might offer a glimpse into Smith’s future.

Young projects Smith’s potential for the upcoming season, forecasting an impressive 25 goals and 40 assists, totaling 65 points in his sophomore campaign. This significant jump in production would cement Smith’s status as a rising star in the league and a cornerstone for the Sharks’ rebuild. The analysis explores how Smith’s development compares to other young talents and what it could mean for San Jose’s future success.

Potential line combinations are also examined, with veterans like Jeff Skinner possibly complementing Smith’s playmaking abilities. The podcast delves into how new teammates and roster changes might impact the young center’s production and role within the team. Listeners can expect an in-depth look at Will Smith’s development, his projected impact on the Sharks’ offense, and what his progression means for the franchise’s long-term plans.

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