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Obviously we’ve been hearing a lot of discussion about Breece and an extension as he approaches a contract year. I broke down what the Jets might be looking at Salary Cap wise in 2026, should they hope to build a more competitive roster and how that might apply to a potential deal with Hall.
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Curious to know your thoughts:
https://open.substack.com/pub/thehardcount/p/the-breece-hall-dilemma?r=5xg2iu&utm_medium=ios
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8 comments
Let s see if he balls out this year and they can move him for a 4th before the deadline.
He s talented but hasn’t been the same since the knee injury.
Also despite being so big and fast, he s too indecisive at times. Cost us a lot last year.
I was arguing with some dude on here that wanted to give him a big extension when there there are more glaring holes on this roster than having 3 RBs.
Also same with JJ bro is living off that one Josh Allen tackle/sack it’s his only real highlight since he joined the league lol
Sign him.
Here is my argument why:
Because I like him and I want them to.
Look, we haven’t had a top tier home grown HB in… how long? Shit even Martin wasn’t home grown. I love the HB position. It’s my favorite, all of my favorite players in NFL history are HBs. I love that we finally have a guy. Give him a 2nd contract so I can buy a damn jersey!
Sign him. Why? I got his jersey last season and I don’t want to go 0-3 in recent Jets jersey picks (Adams, Darnold, Breece).
My only other jerseys are two Revis ones which will forever be worn
I think you can’t sign him without knowing what kind of contract other would be. If he wants 10+ mill a year, you really would want him to prove if from a production and health standpoint, not the flashes we’ve seen over the year. If he wants less than 10 mill a year, it would make sense to engage in negotiations. Ultimately, if he has a all pro year, we can always rely on the franchise tag and work with him
Breece is a great dude and hasn’t scratched the surface yet. But, it’s easy to say “sign him” without examining the true costs cap wise and roster wise. If they do sign him I won’t complain.
I have 5 nits with the article.
1) I’m reasonably sure Fields will be QB1 next season, too. He signed a two year contract. He makes 1/4 as much as Mahomes – cap friendly.
2) the cap goes up. So a contract that looks big today won’t be so big tomorrow. Prescott WAS the highest paid player. By some measures he’s not even top 5 now.
3) in two years, the huge cap hits for releasing Rodgers and Adams will come off the books, providing significant cap relief.
4) the cost of paying a RB is not a massive number. The most elite RBs make $20M. The typical contract for 90% of RBs tops out at $10M or less.
5) the Jets signed three young players this offseason. Their contracts are structured strategically to not crush the cap space.
It really boils down to how you value Breece. He seems to be McCaffrey lite which is really good. His ability to be both a runner and receiver will be difficult to replicate for less money.
I don’t think he’ll command a contract over $10M, and that’s about what I think he’s worth. Najee Harris got a $9M deal. Unlike Najee, Breece is a playmaker who can make 30+ yard runs and can turn a play into a TD.
Keep him and you don’t need to use a draft pick to try to replace him. I realize the RB room is deep, but it won’t be if we don’t sign him.
All that said, he’s playing this season for his next contract. If he plays hurt and not up to expectations, re-signing him becomes debatable.
Sunk cost, not sunk cost fallacy.
I was hoping to see more on the salary cap analysis specifically for 2026. What we expect to have with the status quo and what his contract will do.