What Can Jaden Ivey Turn Into for the Detroit Pistons?
Welcome back to Resol where this time we’re gonna ask what can Jaden Ivy turn into? As I said in the last pod, Pistons pod that Andy and I did, I wanted to look at some comparisons and especially for Ivy, it seems like he has a broader spectrum of outcomes. So, let’s get into those right about now. Andy, welcome back. Let everybody know where they can find you before we start this Jaden Ivy Discourse. You can find me on Twitter at d_d_pistons_fan. Well, Andy and I have been talking about this beforehand. And I let him know, you know, as I said last time, I really wanted to go and look at, okay, who are Jane Ivy’s comps in terms of their first three years, production, all that stuff, their role, who they are, and where they kind of ended up uh with their respective careers and whatnot. I did look at guys in the past. I’m talking like Creed 2012, which is probably like a big shift in the NBA. That’s like where the Warriors came up and the three-point shot became more of a an emphasis for every last single team and it wasn’t just the weird Warriors. And you know, I remember back in the day for me at least in the 2000s, 2010s, it was all those standing Gundy Magic teams. Those are the first teams for me watching where people emphasize like, oh, you shoot threes and then Dwight’s there. So 2012 I did kind of look at some guys before then but then I I I really didn’t think it was appropo because before that too there were a little bit more like ISO scorers and if you wanted to look at combo guards too which is what Ivy is projecting as I think still it’s unfair because the combo guard before pre2 is a little bit more scoreheavy a little bit more selfish and usage heavy which Ivy’s numbers don’t track that way and I’ll be the first to say he’s not a selfish player either. He’s, you know, continued to show that he is unselfish whether it’s, you know, saying whatever role I want to do and most specifically on on the court being able to continue to pass at an above average rate. So, I really did stick to current players in the NBA, I came up with four names. A couple of them I’ve said before in this podcast, but they all do play in the NBA. And with the exception of two of them, they’re pretty contemporary to Ivy. Two of them are a little bit older vets. The other are again pretty close to Ivy’s draft class. Andy, you have any idea who these guys are? Tell me. Tell me one and then I’ll guess a couple because I before we started I already guessed a few and I had I was not close. So, well, let me go to some shot charts here. So, I’m going to we’ll start with Ivy stuff here. Um I’m putting up Ivy shot chart here if you’re not watching this on YouTube. And the guy who I first thought of and when I was like, you know what, I could see Jane Ivy turning into this guy and that was Carris Levert. That was the first guy that I thought of because when I dove into Levert’s numbers, I’m like, man, he still like scores this clear like team still used him coming off the bench. Sometimes he started, but as as his career went on, he mainly became a bench scoring guy. And then when I looked at the shot chart, I’m like, “Yeah, even though you see here, again, if you’re watching this on YouTube, blue is cold, white is neutral, red is hot, meaning you’re good.” Ivy’s red last year. This is a shot chart from last year. Even though it’s only 30 games, it’s at least indicating where his game is going. Light blue at the rim, red from pretty much everywhere in Korea, and doesn’t take that many shots in the mid-range except for maybe that like runner floater um in the the restricted area in the paint. And then you look at at Carer Severt’s shot chart and he’s a little bit above league average at the rim, which is what you want IB to be and as a veteran you would think he would be. And then the three-point shot kind of cools off like pretty league average from right wing, a little bit above league average from top of the key. Blue below league average, but still 33% from left wing. And then from the corners, he’s above league average on both those sides. And then again, nothing really in the mid-range except for there in the paints. 40 shots last year for Caris Vert. Ivy took 33 shots there in the paint just in his 30 games. And Caris Avert took 260 shots at the rim. Ivy took 197 even in those 30 games. Caris end up shooting shooting 60.2% at the rim. Ivy 54.8%. But again, this is where the difference of a vet who’s been around the league nine years versus Ivy who’s just in his third year. Again, maybe by year nine, this is what Ivy looks like where it’s like it’s still pretty average from three, good in the corners, but the main thing is he gets to the rim and he finishes uh above the league average. So that’s that that was my first point of comparison is like maybe the reason they brought in Levert is to try and guide Ivy this way but also maybe have Caris be like, you know, do this, don’t do that. Um, what do you think of the first point of comparison for Ivy? Um, no no disrespect to Caris Levert, but that would be disappointing for Ivy, but we only saw his three-point shooting for 30 games. So, you can’t be sold on his shooting. and Caris has had a season where he shot the ball very well, but for his career he he hasn’t. Um, and I think of Ivy as being much better at attacking the rim, but if you attack the rim and can’t finish, does it really matter that you can attack the rim? So, it’s when you think about it, it’s actually a pretty good comp. Like I don’t want I don’t want that to be an accurate comp, but it’s it’s a good comp. Yeah, for the record, I don’t want it to be an accurate comp, too. But I’m thinking of realistic outcomes where this one’s more of, you know, he leans into his scoring. He still ends up being a pretty good passer, which I think Ivy is already a better passer than Caris Lever. We can put that in there, but like the team brought him in again to play point guard, shooting guard. Levert’s been taller, so he’s been more small forward shooting guard, but same type of thing. If the shooting never really rounds out and stays where it’s at, then this is the kind of player that we’re looking at. And I want to give, since we gave uh Andy a peak into this, I did want to dive into Ivy’s numbers going back into college just so we can again track the shooting and track where he’s been. So remember, I played two years at Purdue. First year as a freshman, 11.1 points per game, 39.9% from the entire field, which was really held back by his three-point shot, 25.8% of 4.2 attempts per game. I remember writing for a Detroit Bad Boys back then about him after his freshman year and being like, “This is not somebody you want to pair with K because of that three-point shot despite the athleticism and all that.” Only 1.9 assists then as well. But then as a sophomore came in and ran the show pretty much for that Purdue team, 17.3 points per game, uh 4.9 rebounds. He’s always been a pretty good rebounder for a guard. And then 3.1 assists and shooting splits for 53.1% from two-point range. Up that 3-point percentage, 10 whole percentage points to 35.8%. And then the free throw numbers have been mid70s, like 72 to 74% both years. So even then the the three-point and the shot at the free throw line were like, “Okay, these indicate at least average.” And the big jump between freshman and sophomore indicated like, “Okay, this guy can get better and seems like he’s he’s turning the corner.” And as we talked about last time, the true shooting percentage always kind of indicated in the NBA like there’s something off here because he’s never been league average across a full season. First year at Purdue, 49.7% true shooting percentage. That’s a freshman. Again, really showed that no matter what the athleticism said, no matter how many rims this guy rocked, he really needed a jumper or something else to make him have not have like something that’s other than just abysmal true shooting. And then gets that that three-point shot right, gets a little bit more to his game and 57.9% true shooting. So, it was a gigantic turnaround from being below average, dude. in true shooting to be like, ah, he’s just one of these guys that needs the ball, scores a lot, but like are you really going to win anything with him to like, okay, this is a real dude that worked on his jumper, still very good athlete, and maybe he can play some point guard. Who knows? Pistons draft him. And again, I go over these these stats real quick, just one more time. 16.3 points per game as the rookie. three-point numbers were 40 or 34.3% from three. Sophomore 15.4% uh points per game, three-point numbers in that second year for Jaden Ivy, 33.6% from three and then just 30 games. This third year, this past season, 17.6 points per game, and then 40.9% from three-point range. And the assists have always been really good in the NBA so far. 5.2 assists per game as a rookie for Ivy, 3.8 8 second year and then last year in that those 30 games, four assists. I mean, he’s already averaging 4.4 assists per game. So, I did want to start with this cuz this is my thought of of looking at this is this is a guy who went from being thought of as, oh, he’s an athlete. He can score, but I don’t know about his jumper. Doesn’t look like it’s ever going to get there. And then it turned around and even in the NBA, even though we’ve been still like, I don’t know, it’s 35.2% across these three years. And even if you want to throw out the three, you know, 30 game sample size because you’re going to say like, ah, it’s too small. It’s not even half a season. Well, if you look at it just in the first two years, 33.9% from three, that’s not bad. And that’s definitely not bad for somebody who is still developing as a shooter. I mean, that’s probably better than somebody like Marcus Smart who did take a lot of threes in his career and in the first two years wasn’t like that either. So, it still does indicate like, hey, it’s getting better. It’s what my draft co-host Jam would always say is a capable shooter. And then to couple that in with the passing, which is always there. It’s not quite at the level of being a point guard. Sure, I’ll give that to you. But it still does indicate that yo, this guy can pass the rock and he’s averaged 22.7% assist percentage. Well, his turnover rate continues to go down and and not be a thing where he’s just wasting the ball. and he’s been able to play some point guard last year, mainly been at the shooting guard position. It’s a difficult profile, wouldn’t you say, Andy? That’s that was the hardest part for me of like trying to find guys that all of these things ring true of like, yes, we know they can score. Yes, we know they’re a pretty good athlete. their jumper seems to be something that is going to be good, but three years in, you have to account for the Caris one of like, okay, if this seems to be capable and average, like what does that look like? It does end up looking like a Caris Levert. But Carris doesn’t fit Ivy. Number one, he’s taller. Number two, he’s never been the passer that Ivy is. He doesn’t have the vision, and he’s definitely not the athlete that an Ivy is. So, it doesn’t quite fit. three other guys that I looked at. You have any idea all the stuff that I just laid out? Anybody else that kind of fits that profile? Jordan Clarkson. You know, I did look at Jordan Clarkson, but it did not end up being Jordan Clarkson. Let’s go back to the shot chart. After Caris, I went to Cole Anthony because Cole Anthony is in kind of a similar boat to Ivy where he’s probably the other side of the coin whereas Ivy is shooting guard that can play some point guard. Cole’s thought of as more as the point guard who can play some shooting guard. Again, their shot charts, this is I don’t want to say it’s a bad outcome per se, but I think it is closer to like the Caris, maybe a little less than that. And Cole has never really been given the starting opportunities that Ivy has. Still below league average at the rim, 56.1% at the rim on 180 shots last year. And then the three-point shot from the corners, it’s pretty good, but he doesn’t take that many. 110 shots from the left wing, 33.6%, 35.2% from top of the queue, and then 26.2% from the right wing. This one didn’t land for me, even though again it’s very similar to Ivy. And if you projected it up to 70 games, like Ivy’s shot chart might look like this. We already saw his rim finishing was worse than Cole’s at 54.8%. But he took more shots at the rim than Cole did, even though Cole played a full season. But again, there’s not that many shots in the mid-range here. The ones that Ivy took the most were in the paint, 33, and then from the right baseline, 24 shots. And for Cole Anthony, the ones he took the most are from both baselines. 37 on the left, 39 on the right, and then 62 at in the paint. And I think Cole does project way more on the nose for an Ivy comp. Even though, again, this is somebody that probably I can already see Andy is like, “Please don’t let it be called Anthony.” because he’s had similar uh efficiency issues even though he’s been pretty good as a passer. He’s continued to be a good scorer. I mean, last year was the only season where he didn’t crack 11 points per game. And that’s because the Magic for whatever weird reason like didn’t play him as much as as they wanted to. This is where I will give Cole a pass because I can already hear people out there being like, “Well, Cole Anthony is trash.” Cole Anthony is not trash. I think it’s more the Magic Gut and Anthony Black and it’s clear they want to play guys that are like six foot seven and above like everybody in their lineup and they kind of just drafted as many guards and signed as many guards as they could throughout the year but across five years Cole Anthony 12.5 points per game 4.3 rebounds 3.8 8 assists, 46.3% from two-point range, 34.5% from three-point range, and then 84.7% from the free throw line. All of that translates out into a 53.3% true shooting. Again, Cole Anthony, similarly to IB the first three years, 49.6% true shooting first year, 51.9% true shooting. Second year, 57% in the third year for a Cole Anthony. Let’s go back to Ivy and see what his true shooting numbers were in those first three years. 52.8% in his first year. So he beat Cole there 53.6% his second year can beat him there a little bit again. But then in the third year with just those 30 games 56.9%. So it does track a little bit there. And since then, Cole Co call Cole Anthony 54.5% fourth year and then this last year 53.1%. Another guy whose percentage is good, 24.4%. Usage does track a lot like Ivy 2 where it’s like in the mid 20s, 24, 25, 21, 23, 24, which is pretty much what Ivy’s had like 25 24 26 um in those ranges. And the three-point attempt rate is also pretty similar. a 37.3% three-point attempt rate for Nicole Anthony across five years. Jaden Ivy’s three-point attempt rate is 36.9% or 36.3%. Free throw attempt rate for Ivy 32.7% and then for Cole Anthony across these five years is 26.2%. So the free throw attempt rate sticks out already. Again, the assist percentage pretty similar. I do think that Ivy has him already beat on the two-point percentages, which if you looked at I don’t think Ivy’s ever been below 50% and Cole’s been below 50% four out of his five years in the NBA. So that is one like definitive thing. Oh, excuse me. Sorry. Ivy has been below 50% all three years. This is me misremembering everything. This is the one where I really had trouble like splitting the difference, but there is a clear difference. What do you think that is? Cuz I have my answer. I’d be interested to see what your your answer is cuz neither of us think it’s Cole Anthony, but it was interesting to find like statistically there are a lot of similarities between Cole Anthony and Jiv. So what what was your your question for me? Like what’s the difference between the two? Because again just from a statistical analysis point of view and if you look at them in the first three years there are a lot of similarities but what’s the difference between the two that would make you definitively say like no Jane Ivy is not Cole Anthony or not going to turn into Cole Anthony? Well Cole Anthony scored more in his earlier seasons, right? It’s only recently he scored less. Yeah. And again, like you can’t really put that in there because it’s more due to like Orlando being like, “No, no, we’re going in a different direction rather than like him being bad.” Yeah. No, I with that, I definitely think it’s just the way the roster constructed, getting France, getting Paulo, everything kind of changing in in the direction on on what they’re doing. Um, I would just have to say like the the free throw attempt rate and attacking the the basket would be the the biggest differentiator for me. Dribbling, I think, is what it is. So, I didn’t just look at this from a statistical standpoint. I first looked at the spats and then after that I just watched like film after film after film after film. I mean obviously we saw 30 games of Ivy. I watched Cole Anthony. He dribbles way way more than an Ivy does for sure. Ivy does a lot more things off ball than a Cole Anthony probably has ever done. That’s probably also why he’s in Orlando kind of out where like we want to give Paulo and France the ball. Even a Jaylen Suggs does more things off ball than than Cole Anthony does. Cole Anthony is your traditional like six-man or combo guard as it was known in the 2000s who dribbles the ball, can pass but mainly scores. That’s the big difference. I know usage like most people would just look at the usage numbers and say like oh they have the similar players but it’s like no look at the actions that they run. Cole Anthony brings up the ball probably like 60 to 70% of the time he’s actually in the game. With Ivy it’s probably like 30%. he really didn’t bring the ball up that much and he’s not the one setting the action normally he’s the one finishing the play especially when Kate Cunningham is in Ivy did so much more off ball so even though a lot there is a lot of similarities here and I think if the team does lean more towards him to Ivy being the point guard I mean number one they would have to take the ball away from Cade in order to do that which I don’t foresee them doing at all even though they’re going to do the the split of the two of them and Ivy’s probably going to run that second unit more it’s not like like this at all. Even with who they have on the team, Caris Levert, Assar Thompson, Ron Holland, like they have enough other guys to give the ball to to where Ivy can still do a lot of offball stuff in the second unit. So, and I do think the ball kind of stuck to Colean a little bit more. I know what the assist numbers say, but then again, in my film study, it just seemed like Ivy was more willing to share the sugar and keep things moving, whereas Cole, it’s like, we’re running this play for you. you set it up and you finish. So I think that is the main difference between the two and why I say Cole is like the other side of the same coin. It’s like yes point guard shooting guard for Cole Anthony. He runs the show and sets it up and gets everything moving whereas Ivy is more shooting guard point guard. He is off ball moving action can score and do some setup but that’s not like his main thing. This is where it gets interesting. I do not know. I I I cannot tell you how I found Ivy’s pretty much onetoone comparison. Again, I don’t know how this came about, but I guarantee you, you’re not going to guess who it is. It did. Again, very similar in age around the Cole Anthony draft. Another guard, not somebody that’s taller than Ivy, like a a a Caris Levert, probably around the same size. Do you have any idea who that would be? I have no idea. I give you another hint. He’s I believe he’s from the same draft. Yeah, he No, no, let’s see. I think he is from the same draft class as Cole Anthony because again the same guy’s been in the league for five years. Cole Anthony, what year was that draft? 2020. You know, I could be wrong on this, but was that the is that the Killian Hayes draft? Was it? It might have been. I don’t know. I don’t know. Colin Ston. Oh. First off, your reaction to Jay Nivey’s most likely outcome is Colin Ston. What would your reaction that be? That’s not bad. Um, I mean, really, it’s not that’s not a bad The more I think about it, it’s like a pretty good comp. Um, how many seasons has Ston been in? But how how long was he in Utah for? Maybe this is where I got it wrong. Maybe he’s been in there six. He’s been in Utah the last three seasons, I believe. We’ll get into his numbers here real quick, but just to break down the shot chart for this again. Again, if you’re not watching this on YouTube, remember Ivy, it’s mainly shots at the rim, some in the paint there, like the floater areas, like what I like to call it, but then more from three where he’s shooting very well from three. Colin Ston, same shot profile here. It’s around the the uh around the three-point area. I mean, there’s only one area where he’s blue. He’s red from left corner. He’s red from the left wing. He’s orange, which is 37.5% from top of the key. 29.5% from the right wing, which is the only area he’s really bad from three. And then red again from the right corner, 36 shots from right corner, 29 shots from right corner or left corner, 36 shots right corner, 29 shots. So, even though he takes them, it’s not like his main thing, which again is the same thing with Ivy. only 19 from each corner. And we don’t anticipate Ivy to be a corner three-point shooter. That’s really the role more of like the guy that’s really good at being a spot-up shooter or like Tobias. Tobias really has been the main corner three-point shooter so far. In this regime, it’s what you would ideally want like a Ron and Assar to do cuz you know they can do dynamic things softball, but as a shooter, you want to keep things simple and where they can attack with their athleticism and stuff. And normally, it’s the taller like forwards that that do those corner things. So, same thing with Ston and and Ivy. They don’t do that. 91 shots for Colin Ston from left wing, 64 from top of the key, and then 78 from the right wing. And that tracks pretty much like Ivy where left and right wings where he took the most, 50 from left wing, 45 from right wing, and then 35 from top of the key and shot well. And even if those numbers went down, again, Ivy was red from all of those spots there. From left wing, from top of the key, and from right wing, he was 40% or better from all those three spots. If those average out at the end of the season, I don’t know that he shoots 47.3% from the left wing, but I could see him shooting 37.5% from top of the key and better than 29.5% from the right right uh wing as well. So, it’s like, okay, you can see those numbers kind of balance out and they’re not these goddy three-point numbers. Before we started recording, Andy was guessing guys, and he said like Anthony Simons, and I’ve never considered somebody like that cuz that Simons has such a high volume of threes that like it would take a monumental leap from Ivy and his attempts to do that. Ston is very much in range there. And same thing, no shots really in the mid-range. The main shot he took in that area is in the paint, 91 shots. He shot 53.8%. 8%. Again, that’s something Ivy could get better at. And then at the rim, Colin Ston, that’s the shot he took the most. 383 shots at the rim where he shot 55.6%, which seems to be like an Ivy thing across a full season, 54.8% just in those 30 games where it’s like, okay, I know we think he can be better than that, but realistically across an 82 game schedule, like that’s probably what Ivy would shoot. What do you think this all equals out into, Andy, with in terms of like the production and the true shooting percentage and the things we’ve been harping on? So, you mean how do I feel in terms of Ivy becoming Ston and matching? First, just looking at Ston’s shot chart, like how efficient do you think he is? Do you think this is a positive player that you want? Um, and maybe this is part of the reason why I didn’t even think of Colin Ston in terms of a a comp. Like for the last few seasons, I’ve been so baffled by what Utah is doing. Yeah. Um, I kind of like forgot about him. I mean, and looking at his numbers, like his production has been good. like he he’s So, in terms of like a comp, it looks good, but I don’t I I really don’t know what to think of of him. Does that I mean, no, you’re in the same spot that I was, but when I looked at the numbers, I was like, “Okay, this does make sense.” And it’s again logical to think this is like the kind of guy Ivy could turn into. you know, all these other ones that we throw on him, we’re like, well, the three-point numbers even aren’t that good or like they’re more of a point guard than a shooting guard. Ston, same thing. He’s more of a shooting guard than a point guard. I misspoke. Sexton was in the 2018 draft, not the 2020 draft. This is where everything gets all mixed up. He’s been in the league seven years. A guy that again is more of a scorer. Yes, he can pass and yes, he has played point and yes, they do still play him at point guard, but that is not his main role. He’s mainly a scorer who can set up and and do things running a second unit, but in as a starter, he’s mainly been a shooting guard. The main difference between the two of them, which like might be the area where people fall apart, is like Ston is way more prolific as a scorer in his first three years. I mean, 16.7 points per game as a rookie, 20.8 points per game as a a secondyear player, and then third year in Cleveland, 24.3 points. So, I think that’s we forgot all about that. It’s like Sexton really scored the rock those first three seasons. And Ston has been a far superior three-point shooter in terms of the percentages, 38.7%. I mean, there’s only one year where he’s dipped below 37% from three. Every other year is 37.1% or better. The last three seasons has been 39% or better. 39.3% or better from three. But I mean, take out those first three years in Cleveland and then it’s been like around 18 or fewer points per game. If you just isolate his play in Utah, 14.3 points per game. His first year there, 18.7 his second year, 18.4 points per game. Like that seems again like an Ivy thing. And then the weird part too is like Ston has always been really good from two. He really hasn’t wasted shots from two either. Ever since his rookie year, his low quote unquote from two has been 50.1%. I mean, there are years where he’s been 53% from two-point range, 54% from two-point range, and then Utah, he’s been super efficient from two-point range. He’s been 52.7% these last three seasons from two-point range in Utah. Same thing with Ivy, though, like 4.9 assists, 4.2 assists. So the first part of of all this was like, okay, Son definitely had more on him as a scorer early on. Ivy has more on him as a playmaker early on. Ivy’s not as good of a shooter. But when you dive in the advanced stats and again looking at that shot chart, it is the first part of like, okay, if Ivy’s numbers ended up being averaged or some of the three-point stuff came down, what do they look like? They look like that shot chart. Excuse me. advanced numbers. This is the one that really blew my mind. Colin Ston’s three-point attempt rate for his entire career is worse than Ivy, 26.7%. He really hasn’t taken that many threes. And if you remember, Ivy’s three-point uh attempt rate is starting to trend up. And honestly, Ivy, his three-point attempt ray has been better than Ston’s every single year was in the mid20s as a guy in Cleveland. And then his careerhigh quote unquote uh three-point attempt rate these last two seasons in Utah is 31.3%. Which Ivy has cleared easily every single year that he’s been uh with the Pistons. We can go back and look at that here in a second. And the other thing that Ivy clears on is the free throw attempt rate. Sexton averaged 29.8% across his uh entire 7-year career, but he’s only had two seasons where it’s been like, you know, oh, it’s noticeable. First year in Utah and then second and then it kind of went back down to 29%. Again, all of this to me indicated like, okay, this is an Ivy type of guy where yes, he can play the point guard and if you look at the assist numbers, Ivy’s already cleared him on that, too. It really wasn’t until these last two seasons when Ston’s 25 years old and 26 years old in Utah where it’s been above 22.6%. Ivy still clears him there. Uh his three-point numbers are getting better and his free throw generation is is there. And again, the shot chart and the play style. Again, I looked at the stats. I looked at the shot chart and then I went and looked at the film and they all match up cuz you see Ston doing the same kind of like offthe-ball movement stuff. He’s not necessarily always the guy that needs to have the ball. He’s doing a lot of stuff off the catch. He’s doing a lot of things where somebody else will bring out the ball and and he will finish. and just in where they get to on the court. I know they look very different doing it cuz obviously Ivy is super fast and we’ll try and jam it more, but especially these, you know, stop start from um baseline in one of the corners and then run and do a curl or pin down or stuff. Like Saxon did a lot of those things. A lot of times he instinct was to get to the rim and same with an Ivy kind of thing. when they were given the ball, it was normally to run a second unit and stabilize there. And uh the three-point shot, even though the three-point shot is more prevalent for Ivy, like that’s the difference between the two is Ivy’s more willing to take them even though he’s not necessarily good at it yet the way that Ston is, but Ston takes them more judiciously and knows like when he’s going to hit them. And uh the main thing too to look at the true shooting percentages. First year for Sexton 52% true shooting. Second year 56.0% true shooting. Then then the third year 57.3. That’s pretty close to Ivy and how we’ve seen it track. And then every year since then 52.3% but then once he got to Utah and they didn’t give him all the usage and he’s in this kind of a role where again mainly doing off ball stuff. Yes. given the reigns for uh the second unit. I mean, he’s been fantastic. His low and true shooting percentage has been 59.3%. This is where I ended up with Ivy is like, okay, I wanted to find an outcome that wasn’t overly like, yeah, he’s going to reach every single ceiling. He’s going to finish at like 60% or better at the rim. His three-point shot is going to be fantastic. It’s going to be half of his offense. It’s like, no. What does it look like when he still relies more on getting to the rim and his two-point shot while also improving slightly from three and then his free throw generation never really explodes the way that you want it to? I think it ends up a lot like this with Colin Ston. It’s It’s funny now looking at the information and thinking about him playing and comparing him to Ivy that this is a really good comp like and you know seasons can go a couple of different ways and whatnot but you could see him the numbers being very very similar and even like looking contractwise, like I think Sexton’s making like 18 or 19 million this year, and it’s like that’s about the area we’d like to see Ivy at is like a $20 million per year contract for like the role of what he’s doing. Um, and it’s very realistic that these are the numbers he would produce and and he would put up and everyone would be happy with that. It’s when everyone pictures him being much more and then deserving more money where that’s where we’ve just said paying him more money is the gamble if cuz I mean just imagine if you sign Colin Ston to like a 4-year hundred some million dollar contract. Is that a contract you would want to get? I mean, with the cap going up, that’s probably ballpark figure where he’s going to be, but you start getting higher than that and it’s like, you don’t want to give him that, you know? Yeah, you already knew where I was going with this cuz the the followup to this is like, okay, if you believe he’s Colin Ston and you feel good in that, what do you pay him? Don’t look at the numbers in terms of the contract, look at the percentage. And if you look at Colin Ston’s percentage of what like he was given with this contract, I believe it was Cleveland that signed the missile if I remember correctly. First year was 13.34% of the cap. Second year was 12.8 point 12.88% of the cap. Third year was 12.9% and then the final year was 12.27% of the cap. Like that’s probably where you’re looking at with Ivy. The cap this year is like 154.6 6 million if I remember correctly. So if you want to say okay what is um what is 13 14% of 154.6 you any idea what that is? We’ll round it up to 14 just to say actually, you know what? Let’s round this up to 15%. Cuz I think 15% is probably like what you and I would argue for with Ivy, right? Of like 15% of the captain if we really feel like the Colin Ston can do off ball on ball, run the second unit, is going to be efficient. We think it’s three round out even if the rim finishing still ends up being like 55%. 15%’s reasonable and maybe a little bit of an overpay, right? Mhm. Yeah. So like 22 million or something. Yeah. So the 15.4.22. Yeah. It’s it’s um it’s around that. It’s like 21 22 million cuz when I looked at it at the 13.34 before that ended up being 20 million which is probably like if I were the GM that’s where I would start is like okay we’ll give you you know 20 million in this and if they could do a descending deal because there have been teams that have been able to get that done like Jaylen Suds’s deal is a descending deal. Um, granted I think he’s making like 35 in the first year of it, but I think in this deal the last uh year of it would be something like 27 million or whatever and then it goes down from there if I remember the the numbers correctly. Again, if you’re comfortable with Colin Staxton, again, it’s not too wild of an outcome. It’s not burying Ivy to be like, he’s never going to shoot or like a he’s never gonna, you know, be a point guard that can handle second unit. But it’s also not being like, yeah, every single outcome he’s going to hit. I think 20 million is like where we’re looking at with Ivy, unless this year plays out and he hits his highest end outcome. And who would his highest end outcome be, Eddie? To me, there’s really only one name here. Uh, Zack Lavine. Boom. You got it. How did you know that? Because everyone talked about it all last year trading for Zack Lavine. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, look at Zack Lavine’s first three years. Uh, everybody forgets he was in Minnesota, but those were his first three years. 10.1 points per game as a first year player, 14 as a second year player, and then blew up to those 18.9 points per game in his third year. Uh, probably had a little bit better of a jumper. uh if I’m being honest and remembering correctly, 34.1% as a rookie, 38.9% second year, and then 38.7% uh third year. And then really the fourth year is when Lavine got injured, and he kind of dealt with injuries the next few years. And it wasn’t until his third season in Chicago, which was like his sixth year I think in the NBA where like he really caught on and ended up being the 5040 mid80s guy from um free throw line, hyper efficient threelevel scorer, maybe more like two and a half level scorer for average around like four and a half or more assists per game. Played mainly shooting guard but can move over to point guard. Like this is the absolute highest end outcome for a Jaden Ivy, right? And even the defense like he never became a good defender until let’s see he’s been in the league I want to say like nine years or something like that 11 years. And he really didn’t become a good defender until he went over to that team USA which is what like in year eight or something like that, right? Yeah. Yeah. That is the the high-end outcome. And I mean his like last few seasons like he is really can shoot the ball. I mean I don’t know what the odds are of Ivy ever shooting like that. Um, not to say that, you know, he couldn’t do it, but like that’s and to do it for, you know, multiple seasons where it wasn’t just one season that he shot it well. He can shoot the ball. Um, yeah, Lavine is like Jason Richardson, Vince Carter where it’s like, yes, they’ve always been fantastic gunk contest mega athletes, but they’ve always been good jump shooters, too. Lavine in his case, it’s like he wasn’t really ever showcased, but it was clear he always worked on it. And by year three, I mean, his three-point attempt rate was 43.7%. You’re not taking almost half of your shots from three if you don’t already have your jumper. Pretty much worked out. And by that point, too, people knew like, okay, he’s going to be a good three-point shooter. And so that’s why Andy said like you can’t really bet on it because Ivy hasn’t displayed that yet. And it hasn’t been a thing in his past where everybody’s like, “Oh, look, his jumper is so pretty.” But you just got to get more consistent at it. It’s definitely not been pretty uh in his past. And then the other thing which you mentioned is like Zack Lavine. It took many seasons for him to become what he is, you know, and that’s that’s what where people are concerned like, yeah, you trade away Ivy now and then three seasons from now he could be, you know, but it also depends on is he going to have the role to develop into that if it’s like Cade primarily running the show with the ball and that’s why for me I think it makes sense having him be the the backup point guard and staggering them cuz part of it is still developing the the player because these guys are still far from finished products and it’s like yeah this this would be a high-end outcome. I don’t and again this isn’t to like knock Ivy in any way but I don’t think this is a likely outcome. like I would love to see it happen, but that’s asking a lot. Normally, I would say something, you know, I say this a lot when it’s like sure it can happen, but you like you don’t bite on it. Normally, I would say like it’s it’s possible, but it’s not probable. In this case, like it’s still year three, so you really can’t say that yet. It still is in the cards. It’s just a little less likely than other ones. But I do it’s one that I would feed of of saying like yes, this hope is still here if I’m not like the Duran one where you’re like oh I think he’ll be know a really good defender. It’s like no I think these catastrophic numbers like really make it super hard. That was one where I would say yes, it’s possible, but it’s just not probable based off of what we have. Or like, you know, Stu being a double double monster. Again, just based off the offensive numbers we have would be like, yes, it’s possible, but it’s not probable. With Ivy, the main thing, thanks to cleaning the glass, we have these lineup um or let’s see, positions, excuse me. They they call it positions for each player. They give you a year-by-year breakdown of like, okay, how much of their time did they spend at the different positions on the court? What do the differentials and stuff look like? And with Ivy, like if you look at these first two years, I mean, it’s pretty brutal and catastrophic. Like, he’s bad on both sides of the court, even though he’s producing. Guess who’s also bad and brutal on both sides of the court here. If you’re not watching this on YouTube, um, Lavine and Ivy are both in like singledigit percentiles in terms of differential, super inefficient on offense. The defense looks catastrophic and like unplayable in the 20s and again single digits. And then by the third year, I mean, Lavine didn’t even play point guard, whereas Ivy has that a little bit there. And then if you just keep going further in on Lavine’s career, his first year in Chicago, again, similarly, really dismal numbers. None of these indicate positive stuff. Second year in Chicago, it’s like, okay, when he’s playing small forward, like these numbers actually look more positive, and it seems to be turning around. Third year in Chicago, it still looks pretty much like it’s going no year, nowhere. But then by the fourth year, this is where the numbers start to indicate like, oh, look, he’s really good when he’s playing pointing guard and small forward. And there’s where things start to turn around. So that’s why I say this one that I would feed of like being probable because if you look at Lavine’s efficiency and like it’s a lot of what people knocked him for and said like ah he’s not worth a max contract and blah blah blah because they looked at a lot of these advanced numbers and they were still very much like h he’s given too much away on defense and like I don’t know if he’s taking the right kind of shots and stuff but over time he proved himself to be a very reliable scorer. He proved himself to be somebody who would take the other side of the ball more um more seriously and ended up being a very good player that like we would want on this team. Again, Ivy’s only in the third year. Um the last thing I want to end with Ivy too is looking at these lineup uh positions that positions I should say position because the lineup thing is the next thing I want to look at. This is the first year where Ivy really got more time at uh point guard. Let me try and go back on this. So 897 minutes is what um cleaning the glass tracked. If you look at Ivy’s totals though, he played 880 898 minutes. So he played one minute at small ford which if you can see here was 1% of his time which cleaning the glass doesn’t really track. So if you’re like how come it’s only 897 cleaning the glass doesn’t count that one minute that he played at small forward because obviously that doesn’t tell you anything about his game. So in those 897 minutes 60% of the time he was at shooting guard and then 39% he was at point guard. I mean they’re both bad here in terms of the offense. It’s better at shooting guard where he’s like in the 51 percentile and points per 100 possessions. only in the 29th percentile in points per 100 possession when he’s at point guard, 63rd percentile when he’s at shooting guard and effective field goal percentage, and then 32nd percentile when he’s at point guard. So, those are two things that are pretty bad. And again, this is the most Zack Lavine part of the the development track, which is what I want to end on would still give Ivy hope of like, you know, one day he definitely could come within there. The other thing to look at is the lineup data. There was one lineup that was clear like far and above Iivey’s best lineup and that was with Kate at the point guard, Ivy at the shooting guard, Malik Beasley at the small forward, Tobias Harris at power forward, and then Jaylen Duran at center. That had an 85th percentile in terms of differential. And the funny thing is, you would think that that lineup would be really good on offense because you had Cade, Ivy, Beasley, Tobias, Duran, like they’re all good offensive guys, right? No, it actually kind of sucked on offense. 48th percentile in points per 100 possession. They’re at least above average in effective field goal percentage. 61% in the 61 percentile effective field goal percentage. But this was an elite defensive unit. 94th percentile on defense in points for 100 possession, 92nd in effective field goal percentage. The bad news is that’s only 128 possessions. Ivy had uh 1,821. So that’s roughly like 13% of his possessions. And again, it was only a 30 game, so it’s not a lot of sample to work with, but these are some glimmers to indicate like there are positive things in here. And believe it or not, so I’ve gone through and looked at these lineup uh the lineup data for a lot of these Piston guys and mainly for the the core Cade, Ivy, Assar, Duran, Stew, and Ron Holland. And this is going to be your running theme because when we go through these episodes and give like what can these individual players do and what do we expect from them, the running theme so far is that there are a lot of these guys regardless of whether they’re thought of as offensive players that they have really good defensive onoff numbers in these lineup ones of like this lineup looks really good on defense. And a running theme for me with everybody is like this Piston squad needs to lean into defense, man. And that Cade, Ivy, Beasley, Tobias, Duran. You know what it makes me say again and again and again, Andy, this coming season. What do they ought to do? Start Duncan Robinson. Bingo. Oh, and again, that’s going to be a running theme because a lot of these lineups, the two shooters, like last year it was Timmy and and Beasley. A lot of the good lineups have both of those guys in them. And again, a lot of those same lineups are really good on defense. So, they should lean into this defensive identity and put shooters here. Man, that was a lot of interesting numbers. And the the thing that I would also add because you’re you know you think it’s it’s more probable than most people would think for for Ivy to to progress and look more like Lavine is Iivey’s career has been he’s had a difficult career I guess you could say to start in terms of Cade was hurt. So, we got to see him in a role without Cade. And then we had the worst season we could probably ever imagine from just a coaching dysfunction standpoint. And then he is having a good season and he gets hurt. It’s like if you take that all into account, the numbers he’s put up are pretty good for what he’s been involved with in my opinion. Yeah. And and the other thing that I forgot to bring up here with Ivy is when you look at the effective field goal percentage, when he’s at point guard, it’s 52.6%. But when he’s at shooting guard, if you remember, I said he was in the 63rd percentile, it’s 55.5% effective field goal percentage. When Jane is at shooting guard, so I was like, huh, I wonder what kind of player that looks like. So, I went to basketball reference and just looked at effective field goal percentage and was like, “Okay, who’s shooting like 55 around 55% effective field goal percentage.” So, the guys we got at a 55% effective field goal percentage, Kobe White, Denny Avdia, Naji Marshall, Jaylen Brunson, Tammani Kamar, Nazare, Austin Reeves, Jonas Valenunis, Victor Wmanyama, and Oanobi. Two of those guys like scream to me these are good at least in terms of role in production. Ivy comps. One is Tammani Kamara who another guy who’s getting better as a three-point shooter and his uh free throw percentage 72.2%. Because some of these like the um Austin Reeves like obviously we’re not going to say that that could ever be Austin Reeves. I mean, if you wanted to just boil it down to one specific stat, it’s the free throws. I mean, he generates so many free throws, Austin Reeves, and he shoots 87.7%. So, it’s like, okay, when you round out the true shooting percentages and stuff, Austin Reeves is going to be far superior, whereas Ivy, we said before, mid70s free throw shooter. So, Tammani Kamara, burgeoning three-point shooter, more um taking shots from two, very good athlete, and then 72.2% 2% from uh the free throw line. So it’s like okay we see pretty similar shooting splits for an IV 54.2% for Tammani Kamar from two 37.5% from three and then 72.2% from the free throw line. What true shooting percentage does that equal out to is 57.2%. It’s like okay if Ivy maintains those shooting spits from two and three and then that’s probably going to be free throw percentage. This is what we’re looking at in terms of true shootings around 57%. Which is what we kind of thought of before anyway is what we said in the last episode, right? It’s like, yeah, if these numbers um maintain any gets even a little better, that’s what it is. And the other guy is Naji Marshall. So Naji Marshall very different role, but imagine Ivy’s three-point shot is 27.5% which is what Naji Marshalls is. 81.3% from the free throw line and then 61.1% from two-point range. You know, we don’t believe Ivy’s going to ever shoot 61.1% from two-point range, but we don’t think he’s going to shoot that low. 27.5% and then the 81.3 like all the other shooting splits would probably kind of balance out like 33% with a little high 70s 50 whatever and not as limited. Naji Marshall’s true shooting percentage 58.4% despite having terrible three-point numbers. So, if Ivy can just maintain that and really this is my argument for like stop playing Ivy at point guard, it is affecting his uh efficiency, that’s for certain. I mean, I know they’re going to continue to play Ivy at at point guard. It’s what they want. But it also mean by like the Zack Lavine thing. Zack Lavine got better because they stopped having him play point guard, right? Lonzo Bald made that Bulls team work. And it’s he’s the guy that everybody from Demar to the GM to Billy Donovan to Zack Lavine says like man if Lonzo didn’t get hurt like this whole thing works like that’s what it still screams with Ivy and luckily they still have a Kate Cunningham. It still does make me think what in the world is Caris Levert doing here on this team and like have an actual point guard alongside Ivy cuz again the early numbers at least indicate that he’s going to be good and and be way more efficient at shooting yards. So that’s another glimmer of hope for Zack Lavine while also still maintaining like this guy can be Colin Ston and have a very good efficiency from two-point range while still maintaining this role of like coming off the bench but mostly being at shooting guard and getting better uh from three and and even if his numbers don’t drastically increase the rim like a Colin Sexton, he can still be hyper efficient. So, this takes us off on a tangent, but you you brought the player up. Anytime I hear uh Tammani Kamar brought up, I think about when you first told me about him and you were like, “This guy is going to be a steal in the second round for whoever gets him.” And every time his name pops up and people are like talking so good about him, I’m like, Steve was so right on that call. That was such a good call. Yeah, if only. If only. I mean, I don’t know why teams didn’t draft him higher either. Was one of those like the Herb Jones thing again. It’s like it indicates this guy’s really good and you just don’t see that kind of an athlete fall that far in the draft either. So, yeah, it is what it is. Andy, do you have anything to say before we get out of here? You did a lot of work, man. like this this this was a lot and it was it was good in terms of I guess comforting like worst case scenario and I think most people already thought this Jaden Ivy will be a good professional basketball player at the two guard. Um, and really it comes down to the the contract that the Pistons sign him to because he could end up signing a deal that it ends up three seasons from now is like part of their success because it was a good enough price that he’s playing way beyond that value. Um, or he’s, you know, at that value. Um, worst case scenario, they sign him to a bigger number than we feel, you know, comfortable with and it’s like paying that much money for Caris Levert or Cole Anthony and you’re like, “Yeah, that that didn’t work out.” which wouldn’t kill your team, but it’s not going to give you the the opportunity to really take advantage because like even some of these teams like Indiana who who’s had a a you know a good run for two seasons, they’ve got a lot of players on the outside of their main two guys who they got way more production than what they were paying them. And you really have to do and that’s, you know, Oklahoma City’s success is based on that. Now they’re going to be paying the price and we’ll see how long they they keep it together, but you need to get more production than what you’re paying for if you want to make a good run. Yeah. And with Ivy too, the Colin Ston thing, like I kind of I like Colin Ston, I’m not going to lie, but at the same time it’s like it really there’s a reason why Cleveland traded off of him. again he’s not necessarily bad but then his value now was such that I guess Utah needed to attach a pick to him to trade him to Charlotte right it’s weird but the main thing with IB2 when I came down to that is like I really don’t see him being worse than like a carous like I did look at at guys considered bust and whatever and I’m like man all those guys either clearly didn’t work at their game or by year three like they just didn’t show and like the character with Ivy is such that like you just don’t see this this guy falling off in terms of work ethic and making it work. Maybe again like the three-point shot doesn’t ever come around cuz that is something to to you know you just can’t say it’s going to absolutely 100% happen if they haven’t been a jump shooter all their life and but when I settled on the the Sexton thing too looking at the film and everything and being like yeah he’s in that overall positive what we said last time like what they sign him and Duran to are really going to make him break but at the other end of it is like okay say he is Ston and he gets that like 15% deal. Ston did help Cleveland take the next step because he’s a useful player that they packaged together to go get Donovan Mitchell. And every single trade we’ve seen where a team gets another major upgrade from AD um to the Donovan Mitchell trade. You know, it’s because that team had multiple useful players. again you however you want to define that because they they didn’t necessarily have the superstar but they were able to package guys together that not only had the contract but had the game to where you’re like okay I can bring these guys in and they’re not just salary filler they’re actually pretty good like Lori Markin and Colin Ston package together along with those picks to get Dynam Mitchell that’s definitely something the Pistons have to do going forward is like we still know both Duran and Ivy are useful but you can’t you know throw all the money at them to where like Andy just the price point is such that either you can’t package them together with a bunch of other guys and picks or like the number is like all right you know this guy’s making too much and it’s a negative asset we just don’t see the return on it and as negative as I may have sounded during this podcast like I’m a huge Jaden Ivy fan for everything he has been through in Detroit like the time with Monty Williams like he handled everything like a pro. His personality and his work ethic, he is not someone I would bet against. He is someone that I would love to see here because I just think he’s going to work for it and he wants it and he wants to be here. So, don’t don’t let my negativity fool you. Like, I I believe in the kid. Yeah. And again, the main difference between where I was I was really this close to pulling the trigger on the Cole Anthony comp, but then the more I watched the film, the more I’m like, Ivy is unselfish. If anything else, like a lot of the guys they have on this team, Duncan Caris, you know, no matter what you want to say about them, you cannot walk away from their film and not say, “Oh, this is an unselfish dude that’s trying to make everybody better,” which absolutely is what Ivy’s doing. And I think that just fits in everybody. Even Duran, like who obviously I am not a big fan of. I would never call him selfish because he consistently is trying to work on the passing and getting other guys involved. So that is a nice thing to see that. And again, I’m with with um with Andy here. You know, I wasn’t the biggest Jaden Ivy fan, but the more you watch him, the more you see like he puts in the time. The game is slowly turning around. And these kind of things don’t happen overnight. So, and I think J9 IB is really going to end up being like a carousel for with the possibility that the Zack Lavine type outcome is not out of the question. That’s just going to take four or five years the way it did for Zach. So, Andy, you have anything else to say before we get out of here? Nope. Good work, my friend. Well done. Oh, you think the work is done? It is not done yet because next time we’re going to look at a SAR. I have no idea. I’m not going. This is just walking in the dark with no flashlight and no shoes. Who knows where this is going to come because I Assar is the biggest wild card for next season determining whether this is a team that takes a step back, spins its wheels or takes a big leap forward because there are guys like Zack Low out there who’s saying I think Assar is going to take a giant leap forward. But it’s then they don’t follow it up with how it’s going to happen. I want to try and answer of like okay, how is this going to happen? So, who knows? Next time hear me fumble all the way through the SR Thompson projection while Andy helps you along. So, yeah. Thank you so much for listening to us, Andy. Let everybody know where they can find you before we get out of here. You can find me on Twitter at d_d_pistons_fan. NAR, here we come. We’re going to
In this episode Andy and Steve look at NBA guards that have similarities in their development and play style that give indications about what Jaden Ivey could turn into on an NBA court.
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