Pittsburgh Steelers NEED to know: 2025 NFL Season Preview | PFF

Pittsburgh Steelers NEED to know: 2025 NFL Season Preview | PFF

Pittsburgh Steelers. Mike Tomlin heading into his 19th season as the Steelers head coach. He has been remarkably consistent as a Pittsburgh’s head coach. They went 10 and seven last year, finished in second place in the AFC North and they lost in the wildcard round of the playoffs. It always feels like the Steelers will be just above 500 to keep that streak alive for Mike Tomlin, but not good enough to compete for Super Bowls. Their defense was the fourth best in the NFL last year in terms of PFF grade. The offense though, 21st in EPA per play, 18th in offensive grade. Now, they did bring in DK Metaf. They brought in Aaron Rogers, too, to help out that offense, but there’s still some concerns on that side of the ball. We gave the Steelers a B+ for their NFL draft and a B minus for their free agency this offseason. So, a really solid, pretty good offseason for the Steelers. Dawn, the biggest strength of this team, like the Browns, though, has to be the defensive line. I I mean, you look at this pass rush. If you get behind the Steelers in the fourth quarter, you have a major problem. TJ Watt, Cameron Hayward, Alex Heismith, Nick Herbig, Derek Harmon, Keanu Benton, James Harrison, Me and Joe Green, whichever. No, I’m just kidding. But like, I mean, we just got it’s there’s a million guys on this defensive. They had five defensive linemen last year rushed a passer at least 200 times and had at least a 76 pass rush grade. That includes TJ Watt, one of the best in the business. Alex Highmith, quietly one of the best pass rushers in the business. Cam Hayward is still dominant in the interior even into his late 30s. And now you add Derek Harmon who led all defensive tackles in college football and pressures last year by a wide margin. Don’t fall behind the Steelers in the fourth quarter. That’s really it. They were they I mean first in the league in pass rush grade as a unit last year. It feels like they just get better and stack more guys on that defensive line this year. And if they’re even better in coverage with the additions of Jaylen Ramsey and Darius Slay and then Pton Wilson playing full-time at linebacker, if they’re even better in coverage than they were last year, because they weren’t that great, especially on the outside last year, and you give this pass rush time to get there, because that was the only thing for me is that when you’re looking at the Steelers in the second half of last season, just get rid of the ball quickly enough. It’s kind of like you were just talking about with Mason Graham and the Michigan Wolverines. Look, just get rid of the ball. Find a way to get rid of the ball. This year, you may not be able to do that with Ramsay and Slay. And if this pass rush just has that extra half second, which is a long time when you’re talking about the trenches, I I mean, you’re looking at a team that without question is going to have an elite pass rush again this year. The number one defensive line in the NFL according to PFF’s offseason rankings. And hopefully that defensive line can break in these offensive tackles for Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh really needs these two young tackles on Steelers to really shine this year because they have a 41-year-old quarterback and Aaron Rogers is obviously not very mobile. He wasn’t really mobile before either, but now he’s really not that mobile. Brick Jones is going to move to left tackle this year. He’s had sub60 PFF grades on the right side of the offensive line each of his first two years. Troy Fatanu, the rookie tackle last year, only played in one game during his rookie season before suffering a season ending injury. He’s going to play right tackle most likely for the Seahors where he played fewer than a 100 snaps across his college and NFL career. She’s got Brock Jones moving from right tackle to left tackle. Troy Fatano playing moving from left tackle to right tackle. You’re hoping that those two first round picks can really improve this offensive line because they need him to. It’s badly needed. I I like this team on the interior with Isaac Samalo, Zack Frasier especially at center. And I like I believe Mason McCormack’s going to start at right guard. I liked him. I I liked him coming out of South Dakota State. I think he’s going to be a solid NFL player. But these two tackles I think are the biggest X-factor on the entire team. You talk about Fotano only playing one game in his rookie season last year. Brick Jones has really struggled sub 60 PFF grades in each of his first two seasons. Now, okay, so now you have one moving back to his natural position in Jones and you have another who’s not in Futanu. It’s always the part to me that that seemed like an odd fit last year when they drafted Troy. Now Dan Moore Jr. is gone, right? And now but now you’ve got one still playing out of position and what’s essentially going to be Fano’s rookie year this year. And you have a quarterback in Aaron Rogers who’s even less mobile than Russell Wilson and obviously Justin Fields were last year. So I I think these two offensive tackles I think they’re the biggest X- factor success not only in and we’re talking pass protection. They got to run block better as well. They want to run these outside zone schemes and do all of that. They got to be better as run blockers, too. I I mean they need need to have balance because we saw it with the Jets last year with Aaron Rogers. He had the seventh most drop backs in the NFL. I know he’s still Aaron Rogers. He’s still solid, right? But you don’t want him having to taken a top eight number of drop backs either. And we saw with the Jets last year when they got away from the run game and everything just went it was just air raid and passing all the time. Rogers isn’t built to carry you like that anymore, right? And just we’ll just go right into him. Look, he had a 78 PFF grade last year, which obviously is still solid. It was a top 15 mark in football, but it’s more conservative than ever. He’s still a master of reading defenses. He will still get the ball to the right spot, but it’s less efficient than ever. and he struggles I I think to attack downfield. His 7.3 yard average depth of target Max was the lowest in any season he’s had as a starter, right? So you’re talking about a guy who I I think going from Russell Wilson to Aaron Rogers in the aggregate. To me, it’s probably about equal. The difference is is that Wilson did it with the high variance deep ball, right, with George Pickins all last year. Whereas I think with Rogers, what they’re going to try to do is get more efficient and work to the chains more often. So there’s less three and outs. Maybe that works for him. But also then you look at the receiving core and you look at the top receiver that they just got in who’s very similar to the one that they let go and had a big year last year and you go, does the quarterback and what he’s trying to accomplish match with what they have as far as their weaponry? Maybe it does. Maybe he figures it out. Maybe he’s better because the Jets and all of their situation last year in the last two years was just a mess. But Rogers is 40 years old, 41 years old. He’s more conservative than ever. And I think that’s what the Steelers are trying to bring to their offense. And the new top weapon for them is a guy they traded for this offseason. Gave a massive contract to that is DK Medafly got from the Seattle Seahawks. 74.6 receiving grade last year, his lowest since 2019, which was his rookie year uh that year, too. But he’s still one of the premier deep threats in the NFL. One of only five receivers last year with a 99.9 deep receiving grade. One of the other four players was George Pickicket who the Seers shipped off this offseason to the Dallas Cowboys. So like you said Don at least Arthur Smith kind of knows how to utilize DK Medaf. But it feels like DK would have been better suited maybe with a guy like Russell Wilson who actually played with in Seattle. Now with Aaron Rogers be interesting to see how he kind of develops his game more as an intermediate guy rather than just a deep threat. Look, maybe Rogers another year removed from the Achilles injury and maybe just away from the Jets. Maybe the vertical passing will come back a little bit. the I mean and you look at Metaf and he was one of five receivers in the NFL with a perfect 99.9 deep receiving grade but one of the other five was George Pickins as well. So did we really make any did we make anything more than a lateral move here? I I think I like Metaf better than Pickins. I do think he is better than Pickkins. I don’t think he is worlds better than George Pickins. I think there’s similar types of receivers and Metaf is maybe a little bit better route runner. But I I think that’s going to be a big mechaf’s going to have to carry a very heavy load because they’re unproven elsewhere at wide receiver as well. You’ve got Calvin Austin, you’ve got Roman Wilson, you’ve got Robert Woods. We we don’t really know a whole lot else about this. What now? You’ve got a stack group of tight ends. You got Frier. You’ve got John Smith. Now you’ve got Darnell Washington. They’re going to have a lot of fun with the tight ends. But on the outside, Metaf, just like Pickkins last year, looks like the only legitimate threat. So, we broke down Miles Garrett already, who we feels like half the fan base in the NFL feels like he’s the best edge rusher in the NFL. The other half feels like TJ Watt is the best edge rusher in the NFL. So, break down TJ Watt’s game for us. Well, we certainly hear enough from Steelers fans about this argument, right? But TJ Watt, look, he was right behind Garrett in PFF grade last year, right? Just a couple just not I think less than a point behind him overall. And the biggest thing is while Garrett last year was clearly the better pass rusher, even though Watt was still very good, TJ Watt was the only edge rusher in football with a 90 run defense grade last year and he forced six fumbles as well. You’re talking about a guy, look, it’s it’s he’s TJ Watt. He’s a great run defender. He’s one of the five to six best pass rushers in the NFL. He makes plays on the football. He can drop back in coverage if you want him to. I mean, he just he can he can do everything, right? And he’s another one. Just got paid. got just got his $40 million a year extension and welldeserved. He’s one of the elite players in in football. Look, there may never really be a winner in the Miles Garrett versus TJ Watt debate, especially when the heated rivalry between Cleveland and Pittsburgh persists forever, but TJ Watt’s an elite football player. He still is. And I get the argument that some are making about paying him and extending him and he’s 30 years old and this, but again, it seems like edge rushers are aging better than ever. And when you look when you dig in really on the impact that Watt has and he’s the best run defender in football last year, it’s it’s really there’s no argument to me. You got to pay this guy. Even with the rest of the defensive line, as great as they are, we saw it was a couple years ago when Watt missed a handful of games, how much worse they get without him, right? He is the guy amongst a group of of several really talented players. Absolutely. Tij the only edge rusher in the NFL with 90 plus run defense grade and pass rush grade last year too. The rookie to watch, it’s actually really ironic. It’s very similar to the Browns where the rookie to watch is a dtackle too, a first round detackle in Derek Harman who also should really benefit from playing on a loaded defensive line the Ste have with TJ Watt, Alex Heismith and Cameron Hayward. Derrick Harman was one of the best dtackles in college football like Mason Graham was last year too. In fact, like Don said, he led the nation with 55 pressures last year, 84.6 PFF grade, was 10th among all DTackles. So, you’re playing against a veteran who’s still a great player and Cameron Hager, one of the best DT tackles in football. You’re playing alongside two great pass rushers and two great edge rushers in general in TJ Watt and Alex Highmith. I think Derrick Harmon could really benefit from all the one-on- ons as a rookie. Absolutely. Yeah, I mean, you’re talking about a guy who’s not going to be tasked with a full-time starting role because you look in the inside, you obviously have Cam Hayward, you’ve got Keanu Benton, even a big body like Isaiah Loudermilk gets a good amount of snaps. So, Harmon is, I think, going to be put in situations where he can succeed and he can play to his optimal strengths, right, and he can learn, especially, you know, in run defense, what he needs to do at an NFL level. But, no, absolutely. I think what you’re looking at now is whenever he needs a successor, Cam Hayward, or whenever he decides to hang it up because he’s still an elite football player, they’re looking for a successor for that role for Cam Hayward. And obviously, that’s never going to be easy. But with taking him in the first round at number 20 over or 21 overall, I believe it was. Harmon is tasked with that. He’s going to be expected to be the guy that whenever Cam Hayward retires that he’s going to be the next in line inside. Absolutely. All right. The best bet for the Steelers, according to Ben Lindsay, is the Steelers to go over two and a half wins in the AFC North next year at minus 130. You can get it on DraftKings right now. Steelers are 11 and seven in the AFC North over the last three seasons. So basically, they’ve won around three or four games in the AFC North in the last three years. And of course, we just broke them down. The Browns project is one of the worst teams in the NFL this year. So if you beat the Browns twice, all you got to do is beat the Ravens or Bengals once to go over two and a half. I like that bet a lot too at minus 130 right now to go over two and a half wins in the AFC North. Yeah, I know Jamus Winston and the Browns pulled the big snowy Thursday night football upset against them last year. But you look at that Browns team as as their offense might even be worse this year considering the quarterback situation. You get two wins there, you’re asking for one out of four. Then you’re talking about, okay, either one against the Bengals with your Dline against their offensive line, right? And even their defense, right? Or you’re talking about even the Ravens. The Steelers, I would say, give the Ravens as much trouble as any team in football because they’re so good up front because they have a way of handling Lamar Jackson and the fiveman fronts they can get in on the defensive line. So, I I think if you’re expecting the Steelers to beat the Browns twice, which you should expect that, then you really like going over two and a half in the division because it would be it would be pretty hard for me to believe that they’re going 0 and4 in those other four, especially against the Bengals who look, you look at the Steelers next to the Bengals on paper and you go, well, the Steelers have a better football team pretty clearly. But again, Burrow, Chase, and Higgins, they changed the equation there. Definitely. So, the Steelers win total is set at eight and a half right now. Don, if they go under 8 and a half, that would be the first below 500 year for the Steelers since 2003 when Bill Cower was still the head coach of the Steelers. So Mike Tomlin has never had a sub 500 season in his career in Pittsburgh. So do you think for a team that’s gone backtoback 10 and seven years, made the wild card round each of the last two years, too, will it be similar in 2025 or for the first time in over two decades, will Sears have a losing record? I mean, it’s it’s just considering the magic of Mike Tomlin, it’s very hard to pick them to have a losing record. I I know I I I went on I went out on on the limb and said they would have a losing record last year and they still didn’t. So, um I’m not going to I’m not going to pick them to have a losing record. You just at this point, it’s been 18 years already. You just kind of can’t do it. The playoffs are a bigger question and winning a playoff game is obviously the big story in Pittsburgh. They haven’t done that since 2016, right? So, I think this is the problem and this is where even when you asked me earlier about, hey, are the Bengals making the playoffs? Cuz here’s the problem. You look at the AFC, right? We’re all assuming Chiefs, Ravens, Bills are in, right? Obviously, there’s a South champ. That’s four. But then you’re looking at three spots for LA, Denver, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh. Who knows if somebody else in the South emerges? Who knows if maybe a New England Patriots emerg? Somebody’s got to get left out here, right? And this is where it made the Bengals question so hard because I think the Bengals and Steelers are the two teams maybe right on that borderline just like they were last year with the Steelers getting that last spot in and then the Bengals being the first team out. This team can make the playoffs if they can protect Aaron Rogers enough. Again, the offensive tackles I think are the biggest X factor for me. And then finding some receiver depth behind even the running backs are a bit of a question. You’ve got Jaylen Warren, you’ve got Caleb Johnson, Kenneth Gainwell, but there’s not a superstar in that back field right now for as much as we think Johnson fits in the system. So, this is a good football team. Their defense could be absolutely nasty now that they’ve added more talent at cornerback with Jaylen Ramsey and Darius Slay. So, I I think their defense at the very least is going to have them having another winning season. I think the ceiling is probably one I think the ceiling is one playoff win. um unless their offensive line and those tackles really make a huge a huge jump and we’re protecting Rogers at a plus level. I think the ceiling is one playoff win. The floor is probably around that eight and a half win mark, but it’s hard to pick them to have a losing season just because how much talent they have and Mike Tomlin just doesn’t have losing seasons. Yeah, like I said, over 20 years of having a winning record in Pittsburgh. I doubt that changes in 2025 with Aaron Rogers now at quarterback. Yes, they need help on the offensive line. He has the, you know, new running back in Caleb Johnson who’s get drafted in there, too. And now DK Medov’s your number one receiver. But I think it’s going to be around the same next year. I don’t think this year is going to be a super contender by any means, but I do think it’s a team that could compete for one of the last wild card spots and just probably flame out in the wild card round again uh in 2025. So, I have them I I’ll say over eight and a half, but like I said before, I think this is probably another nine and eight, 10 and seven type of year for Steelers. Yeah, it feels the same. It just there is a road where they’re better than that. It’s the improvement in the secondary and do we I mean and then there’s a then there’s a thing of still we’re talking about Aaron Rogers 41 going on 42. It it wasn’t great with the Jets last year. No, I mean the numbers on the whole look pretty average but only 6.7 yards per attempt. Really struggle to work the ball downfield and with what the Steelers are trying to do offensively. Can he work the ball downfield? the same way Wilson was the highest graded deep passer in the league last year, right? If you have any sort of drop off from that, unless you’re running the football a lot better or he is that much more efficient than Wilson closer to the chains, I think there’s really it’s not being said enough that there’s a lot of ambiguity on what this offense is going to look like. Definitely. All right, that wraps up the Pittsburgh Steelers. That wraps up our AFC North preview.

PFF’s Dalton Wasserman and Max Chadwick highlight everything you should be paying attention to with the Pittsburgh Steelers, heading into the 2025 NFL Season!

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