New Jersey Devils & Luke Hughes Contract Talks Hit A Brick Wall?

New Jersey Devils & Luke Hughes Contract Talks Hit A Brick Wall?

[Music] Welcome back Devils fans. It is your host Ace here on Running with the Devils where we are talking New Jersey Devils hockey all year long. Please hit that subscribe button, smash the like, share with a friend. Thank you very much. And the long summer continues, my friends. I hope your summer’s going well. Hockey season just around the corner. We’re about 6 weeks away from preseason. I am here in the studio 2.0 as I continue to tinker and rebuild. I’ll be back to a respectable studio soon enough. appreciate the patience. And in the meantime, a hot button topic seems to just keep rearing its ugly head, just continually in the headlines, and that is the Luke Hughes contract extension. Feels like we’ve been talking about this one for quite some time. Uh, a little over a month ago. It was 30 some odd days ago. At his press conference, Tom Fitzgerald, general manager of our beloved New Jersey Devils, told us all that signing Luke Hughes was his number one priority and basically alluded to the fact that nothing else would be done before then. And everyone thought, okay, maybe that means it’ll get done sooner than we think. We all kind of remember last summer the Dawson Mercer thing. He was a restricted free agent. It lingered on. He ended up missing like a day of camp or something like that. But but in the end, no one likes to see these things linger on forever. You want to see the business get taken care of as soon as possible and we all obviously want to see Luke Hughes here long term. Now with that being said, we got nothing. We got absolutely nothing. People have been speculating everything under the sun. Myself and a lot of you, the viewers have kind of guessed over the past few months what the term and the cap hit would be for Luke’s contract. People had guesses all over the board. Some people are completely delusional about the new cap era, as I like to call it, with the cap going up, how the contracts will reflect that. And so, everyone’s kind of all over the place. Some people in recent times have thought that Luke may end up signing the shorter term deal. I certainly hope that’s not the case. I do think that would be a catastrophic loss for the Devils to not use this opportunity to get him signed long term. But the other day, The Athletic, the other day, The Athletic put out something very interesting, and it was a list of the top 10 value contracts in the NHL. And here’s a little screenshot. I’ll put the link in the description so you can check it out if you’re a subscriber to The Athletic, but the headline is NHL’s 10 best contracts 2025 edition, Jack Hughes, Brandon Hegel, and more. And you see the picture of the article is in fact our boy Jack with that jersey on. And then we get into it. Number one on the list, Jack Hughes. They have this fancy chart here for everyone that likes the charts and the graphs. You know, your boy’s not particularly a fan of these things, but you know, they show his net rating and offensive rating, defensive rating, and yada yada. And in the end, at his $8 million contract, they somehow come up with a market value of 15.6 million, which I think is just completely ridiculous. Obviously, I do agree that the Jack Hughes contract is an absolutely phenomenal one for the Devils and great value. And I’m going to get into this a little bit later in the video cuz there is a lot more than meets the eye in my opinion about the Jack deal, but somehow they come up with 15.6 million. I mean, I I think that’s a little absurd. Um, we’re going to see what Conor McDavid inevitably signs for at sometime soon, whether that’s with the Oilers or he goes somewhere else in free agency. But a lot of people have been spitballing some wild numbers for McDavid. But he may end up signing for something around that 15, 16, maybe even 17 million. So I do think the market value they’re giving Jack here at 15.6 is a bit insane. But either way, they have him number one on the list. And then they give a little write up contract. 8 million times 5 years, that’s the five years remaining of his eight-year deal. Surplus value 38 million. I mean, again, I think a little a little inflated and juiced. Positive value probability 99.9%. That’s a pretty good percentage. The best contract in hockey belongs to Jack Hughes. As the cap continues to climb, Hughes modest 8 million cap hit continues to look more audacious each season, and there’s still 5 years remaining on it. For roughly the price of one Ellias Lynholm, the Devils get a franchise center, a borderline MVP threat, and one of the league’s most impactful players. Going into next season, only seven players are projected to provide a bigger game-to-game impact than Hughes. Over the life of his deal, Hughes has a very real chance of becoming a top five player in the sport. That’s a big step up from what’s expected of an $8 million forward, which is to provide low-end firstline value. The difference between what Hughes is and what his contract demands is massive, the largest in the league. It’s what informs the chances of Hughes living up to his deal, a laughably high 99.9%. The deal is as good as it gets. And here is the deal they’re referencing. Signed on November 30th of 2021. An 8-year deal for 64 million with an average annual value of 8 million to Jack Hughes. There it is. And again, at the time, I was very uh kind of skittish on this, and I’m going to talk about this all a little bit more in depth later on in the video, but this article, this top 10 value contracts, it leads to Elliot Freiedman, one of the best in the game, one of my favorite hockey journalists. If you’re not familiar, check out Elliot Freiedman, 32 Thoughts, very popular podcast. on his summer edition of the 32 thoughts podcast. This was kind of a hot button topic where he discusses what he thinks going on with players that haven’t been signed yet with this new cap era and all the things kind of behind the scenes which is a transition phase essentially in the NHL with these contracts getting crazy um and the money going up everywhere both the cap and the players contracts. He talks about it on 32 thoughts. Uh I’m going to give you a nice clip here. I’ll put the link for the full episode in the description as well to check it out. But very interesting stuff. And let’s go to Elliot Freedman. Again, I edited a couple little things out that weren’t as pertinent to the Devils, but I’ll post the link for the whole thing in the description. And here’s Elliot Freriedman on 32 Thoughts talking about this whole scenario and Luke specifically. So I what it sounds like is that one of the things that’s really obvious, Kyle, is that there are a lot of players who don’t want to sign a contract that quickly goes and looks like too much of a bargain. And so, for example, this week, um, the Athletic did an article, uh, which was, you know, the the the top 10 best value contracts in the league. And the the funniest reaction I had to that was that someone told me that there are teams out there who hate being on that list. like if they get a player who’s on that list, they think it makes it harder to negotiate contracts with another player because agents will say, “Oh, you got that guy. Well, you’re not getting me.” And yeah, it it does happen. I I’ve been told that this does occur and like you think that teams would be upset about being on the these are the worst contracts and I’m sure they are but I had a couple guys tell me that you also don’t want to be on the best list because then people really grind in and dig against you. Um so it was funny. It was it was funny to hear that impar that feeling. It’s very obvious out there that, you know, teams are, you know, trying to hold the line and say, “Okay, well, if this if this player, like the top players are going to get what they’re going to get, but it’s very obvious that some of the teams are trying to say, hey, whatever percentage was signed on this contract before this cap bump, we don’t want to do that because, for example, a percentage that might be worth say, say for argument’s sake 5 or 6 million Well, that could be going up in the next couple years to 7 8 9 million. And they’re like, we don’t want to do that. We don’t want to argue percentage anymore. And the players of course are going to argue percentage. And the one thing I’m always reminded about, we don’t talk about it very much, Kyle, is that like these players, they don’t only compete on the ice, they compete in terms of contracts. Like I have several agents who say to me, especially with younger players, and I don’t know a lot of the younger players yet. Um, you know, there’s there’s obviously a little bit of a generational divide between me and a lot of them. Um, but they’re they say they’re even more competitive than ever when it comes to their contracts. And so they don’t want to sign contracts that they look back at in a year or two and say, “Oo, I really regret signing that.” Um, you know, I get I get Devils fans asking me all the time, “What’s going on with Luke Hughes? What’s going on with Luke Hughes?” The Canadians fans are wondering about uh Lane Hudson. Um, I just think that with the cap going up, the market is getting reset. I like I don’t see problems getting these guys signed, but I do see the sweet spot for both team and player being a challenge. Everybody just trying to figure out where that is. Like, you know, Lane Hudson, I’m sure initially, you know, the Canadians probably wanted him to be under Nick Suzuki. And now you look at the deal Noah Dobson just signed. Well, if Lane Hudson’s going to sign for term, it’s probably going to be up closer to Noah Dobson. And so what’s the sweet spot? I just think that we’re going through this whole contract reset and we’re still just figuring out exactly where all of this is going to land. But I definitely feel that the teams and the players aren’t 100% comfortable yet to say this is where we’re going. I think they’re still figuring it out. And I think that’s why you still seen some of these biggest deals not yet signed. Lots of interesting stuff there from Elliot. A lot to unpack. And here’s the thing. The reality is when these long-term deals are signed, especially earlier in guys careers, it creates this winners and losers kind of list, right? So, in the Jack Hughes scenario, the Devils and Fitz were the winners and now poor Jack Hughes is the loser because he’s underpaid. And I think it’s kind of the wrong way to look at it. Uh I I don’t think that there necessarily has to be a winner and a loser. And in the case of Jack Hughes, there’s so much to get to on this. Give me a moment here. Signing for less than you’re quote unquote worth, gives the GM, assuming you’re a a cap sealing team, which the Devils will be for probably going forward forever essentially hopefully that you’re leaving some of that meat on the bone that Fitz talks about to improve the team. And so it’s not like, oh, I squandered all this money. If you care about winning, a team friendly deal allows your general manager to sign other players and make the team as good as possible. Now, whether you agree with some of the signings, that’s a whole, you know, topic for another day. But it’s not the end of the world. A lot of these guys are young. They’re going to have multiple big contracts in their lives. They’ll have plenty of money. They’ll never be in poverty. They will want for nothing. And so, it’s hard for me to sit here and be like, “Oh, the poor guy, his contract.” Uh, some of the other points that Elliot brought up that I thought was very kind of correct, I guess, is something I’ve talked about in the past as well is that these guys look at the percentage of the cap. So, they say superstar players, you know, is going to be whatever percentage of the cap. So, now they use that math with the cap going up and where it’s expected to go. And they’re coming up with these insane asks that they’re going to want these monster deals. So for Luke, I I it’s kind of a nauseating feeling because I thought there was a chance this could happen. I I really do. I really did the whole time because a lot of people were you saying, “Oh, Jack, you know, there he’s going to make less than Jack or he’s going to get the same as Jack.” And I kept telling everyone that deal was signed by Jack four years ago. Uh a different world, a completely different cap climate, and it’s not applicable. And so there’s zero chance in my opinion that Luke Hughes signs for less than the $8 million Jack is making. Hopefully they do hammer out the long-term deal, but teams and players don’t necessarily love these lists one way or another. And it’s unfortunate that when they come out, you know, like he said, agents don’t want to be on that list of best value contracts because it’s a perceived loss, if you will. They’re graded on how they get their players paid. And whenever you see a list where if you’re Pat Bersan, that’s a hockey super agent in the game. If you’re not familiar, look it up. Has some of the biggest clients on the planet. Some of the biggest players in the league are under him. Jack and Luke Hughes both are. And when you see that your name is associated with a player that is the biggest perceived bargain or value contract in the league, that’s kind of a loss for him. And it’s a win for the Devils. But it doesn’t need to be this like good verse evil thing. And I think it’s kind of become that. Again, media sensationalizes everything. It is the summer. People are looking for anything to put out. And like Elliot said, this is content. It is an interesting list to look at. But I don’t think it should lead to these kind of bad feelings between players and their agents and teams. And the biggest elephant in the room that no one’s talking about about the the Jack contract, I want to talk about the Jack contract for a minute before I get to the kind of nitty-gritty on Luke. The reality is Jack Hughes got that contract well before he was worth it. Well before and it was a massive massive gamble by Tom Fitzgerald. Massive gamble and it paid off but it very easily could not have. If we look at Jack’s first two seasons, his rookie season of 1920 and then the following season in 2021, he signed the deal a couple months into the 21-22 season. But you look at the first two seasons, rookie season, 21 points in 61 games. Not anything great whatsoever. I mean, he’s a young kid, so, you know, growing pains, getting used to the league. I get it all. I think a lot of people were kind of disappointed with his rookie season. 21 points in 61 games. And then the sophomore campaign, injured again, plays 56 games, 11 goals and 20 assists for 31 points. And you’re like, okay, we see some improvement there. And he showed flashes of brilliance. I think a lot of us kind of saw it, but it was like, can you put it together? Can you do it on a game-by-ame basis or over the course of a season? And it was a fair question at the time. A young kid kind of unders sized, you know, all the same things that have, you know, followed him a little bit over time. But through the first two seasons, there was nothing, nothing whatsoever that screamed, “Sign this kid for eight years for $8 million a year.” Absolutely nothing. Now, after his first two years, we get to his third season, the 21-22 season. And what do you know? In the second game of the year, literally the second game, Hughes dislocated his left shoulder during a game against the Seattle Kraken on October 19th, 2021. Second game of the season, injured again. Wow. Right. It seems like this is a a chronic problem now. Your third season in the league. We’re at game two. you were injured the two previous seasons and now after game two of your third season you’re injured again. I think at that point it’s fair to be like is this guy injury prone? Are you injuryprone? And now at that exact point in time, game two, he misses a bunch of games. Fast forward to late November and Fitz is like, you know what, I do want to sign this kid long term. Let’s give him $8 million a year for eight years. And when you look at his stats at the time, and here they are again, his first two seasons, you know, 21 points, 31 points, and then he had two games played in that 21-22 season before he got injured, and he signed the deal while injured. That brought his career totals, career totals to 119 games played, 20 goals, 35 assists for 55 total points, which is an average of 0.4 462 points per game at the time he signed the contract. And Fitz gives him eight years times $8 million a year. At the time, the $8 million was obviously a much beefier number than it is today. Again, with the cap going up, yada yada. That $8 million, you’re going to see guys that you’re like, “Whoa, he’s making$8 million bucks.” Because we’re in the new cap era, baby. Back four years ago, $8 million was a hefty amount. And Fitz took a massive gamble. And I have to give him the credit for this. Looking back at everything he’s done since he’s been here, this has to be his signature move or the best deal he’s made while general manager of the New Jersey Devils because it was ballsy. Ballsy. The kid’s now injured for his third season in a row. And they’re like, sign him up. $8 million a year times eight years. I remember hearing this and I went wild. I was like, whoa. Because this was risky. Super risky. super risky. I immediately texted Steve the maniac and I was like, Fitz just gave Jack $8 million a year times eight years. I was like, I really hope this pays off because that is a sizable gamble for a young kid who’s shown to have injury issues and he was producing at 462 points per game. That type of production did not mean you were an $8 million player back then. Absolutely not at that juncture was he worth $8 million. Now, the point of these long-term deals, as I’ve said, is you are taking a gamble as a general manager. You’re hoping that while you may be overpaying a guy the first couple years of a contract, they develop into the player that you think they’re going to be, and then you have a team-friendly deal going forward. That is exactly what happened here. And again, all the credit in the world to Fitz. this has to be his best deal as general manager of the Devils because for whatever reason he had the belief and the foresight to say, you know what, despite the production not being maybe what some people expected, despite the injury issues, I think this kid’s going to be a stud. Let’s lock him up. And he did it. And he did it. $64 million. I thought it was insane. I was out of my mind scared because if that does not pan out, which let’s be honest, right, that very well may not have panned out. That is the risk you take as the general manager. Jack could have had a career ending injury a year or two after that. It could have happened. Obviously, it didn’t, but the injury issues still exist. That’s another topic for another day. But you’re taking a sizable gamble. Is he going to have injury issues every year? Is he going to have a career-ending issue? Is he just never going to develop into the point per game plus guy? Is he just going to put up 4050 maybe and be that and now we’re paying him $8 million? It’s a chance you take. Fitz put it on the line. Great deal and it’s a team friendly deal and now it shows up on the list and now there’s like this weird potential animosity or resentment maybe from, you know, either the family or the agent towards the organization. And it’s like Jack wasn’t ripped off. He at the time got money. He technically did not deserve. That is the reality. Now, I love Jack Hughes when he’s on the ice. One of the most dynamic players in the league, hands down, highlight reel stuff, game breaker, can change the momentum of a game in a single shift. Love it. Love to see it. Blockbuster stuff. Must see TV. Love Jack Hughes. But at the time, he did not deserve $8 million a year. He wasn’t playing like an $8 million player. And then shortly after signing the deal, that was kind of his coming out party season. While he was injured, he still finished a season over a point per game. And then obviously we get to the magical 22 23 season and so on and so forth. But you cannot understate what a massive gamble that was by Fitzgerald and it paid off. And so for the deal to be number one in the league, you could debate that as well. You know, for a guy that’s injured so often, can you be the best value deal in the league? I don’t know. you know what, whatever it is, Jack, regardless of injuries, is a phenomenal deal that I do agree with. But it shows up on the list and now it’s like, oh, you know, his agent doesn’t want to be on that list again and do the same thing with Luke. And I’m kind of back in the same place where again, Luke we all think is going to be a great defenseman. Does he have plenty of things to work on? Absolutely. He’s a very young kid. He’s going to get better with time hopefully. And we all believe and hope that we think that’s we have a franchise defenseman here, right? amazing offensive upside. He’s improving his defensive game. Brett Peshi has done a ton for him. You love to see it. But what is the number he’s looking for? Because when you compare him to some of these other defenseman getting these big deals, you could kind of argue that, you know, he’s either right there or right below some of these guys, maybe right above some of them. But it seems for me, I’ve kind of had the same number in mind for a few months now. I originally months ago said between 7 and $8 million, but that was like before Douge went down and then Luke kind of stepped up. So then after the season I was kind of in the mindset of 8 to9 million I think would be fair for both the team and Luke on a long-term deal. But I also said in some lives with some of you guys that I could see his agent maybe looking for somewhere between 10 and 11. And with the crazy cap going up, you could say in a couple years that it would be justified. But it’s it just all comes down to, you know, how greedy do you want to get? As Fitz always talks about leaving meat on the bone, I personally judge guys for this stuff because I want guys that want to win and that don’t want to milk the franchise for every possible scent they could get. And I’m not saying Luke’s doing that, but here we are on August 5th, it’s a little unsettling. And you know, after Elliot talked about this and with the list coming out, it just seems like it is a weird time in the league where both players and their camps and GMs are not really sure of what to do. They’re looking for maybe another comparable player to sign a contract so they have more of a barometer to gauge and nobody wants to look stupid or lose in the court of public opinion and end up on one of these best value lists. And it’s it’s a little it’s unfortunate. You know, it is what it is. This is a business, right? Teams are trying to make money. Players are trying to make money. Agents are trying to get their players paid. They’re trying to keep the bar going up and up. You know, the players association has an incredible amount of power. They don’t want to see guys signing these super teamfriendly deals, but I I would love to see it get done. Now, this could be a huge sticking point and maybe they’re far off on the money. Maybe Fitz is like, “Listen, I’ll give you eight and a half.” For in my opinion, I’ve said this before, but to reiterate, I think anything under 9 million bucks a year on a long-term deal is a pretty good value for the Devils. But again, like I said with Jack, even at that value, any contract you sign for any player, you are taking a sizable risk on a long-term deal. Luke has been injured quite often as well. That could be something that nags him throughout his career. Maybe he gets a career-ending injury, worst case scenario. Maybe he just kind of levels off and he’s a more of a 50-ish 40 point 40 50 point guy than the 60 70 point guy that a lot of people think he’s going to be. Now, I I believe in him a lot. I think his ceiling is super high. I think he could do it all. I think he’s going to keep getting better. I think he’s going to be a dominant power play one quarterback for years here hopefully. But all these big-time deals are somewhat of a gamble and there is no guarantee that he’s going to be this elite elite superstar that many of us believe he can be. And so even at 9 million bucks, eight and a half, whatever it is, they’re still risking that. But who knows? Maybe his agent’s like, “We want 10 and a half times eight.” And maybe that’s where we are. just a complete standoff as Elliot kind of referred to all over the place and teams and and players are trying to figure out where the sweet spot is and where is that sweet spot. I’m certainly hoping it’s around 8 and a half million bucks. I would love to see that or even 9 million. But I I think you can make the argument maybe for that 10 plus and it is kind of concerning because if this continues to linger on camp is only about five and six weeks away, a little over five weeks away. And is this going to be something that creeps into camp like we saw with Dawson Mercer? And then furthermore, if they are too far apart on the average annual value, do they somehow then look to maybe sign the short-term deal, which I I think would be a catastrophe. I personally think that’d be an absolute catastrophe. Anything short of the max eight years, I think is a is a fail. But if they’re playing hard ball, that might be the route the team has to go. And I would hate to see it. I think it would be a massive misstep, but sometimes your hand is forced. And so looking at all of this, uh, it’s an interesting time, guys. We’re in the summer again. They put out this list. Jack is the number one best value, and they probably don’t want both Hughes brothers to end up on that list one day. But you’re taking a gamble as a general manager. And so, I see both sides of it. But in the end, I want guys that want to win, that will leave some of that meat on the bone as Fitz talks about, and wants to leave a little extra money on the table so that the team can go out and improve to be the best version of themselves. And Luke right now, we need to make another move or two to even fit him under the cap before the season starts because we don’t even have enough space to sign him at the moment. I mean, they physically can sign him and then become cap compliant before the season starts, but it’s going to be tight. And so again, I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of other moves outside of this Luke extension as I’ve thought from last season, but here we are, guys. What What do you think’s going to happen? What do you guys think about all this? Do you guys agree with Jack being the best value deal in the league as that list said? What do you guys think about anything that Elliot said? Uh, it’s a lot it’s a lot to stew over, but I’m hoping this comes to an end soon because I I don’t really want to talk about this anymore. I would just like to have it done behind us and know that Luke is here long term. And you know, the other thing I didn’t mention is the Luke contract could very well have a big kind of impact on his brother Quinn potentially coming here. And that’s another thing, you know, everyone thinks it’s going to happen. Rutherford talked about it at the Canucks end of season press conference. He said Quinn wants to go play with his brothers. It kind of seemed like he was priming his fan base for an inevitable Quinn Hughes trade at some point or departure. I mean, if they don’t trade him and just lose him for nothing in free agency, that would be crazy. But it does seem like that is a very possible scenario that Quinn Hughes will come to the New Jersey Devils one way or another. Whether he’s traded here or maybe traded somewhere else and then comes here in free agency in two years July 1, 2027 at the latest. I fully expect Quinn Hughes to be signing on the line that is dotted to become a New Jersey Devil. But Luke’s got to leave some meat on that bone. Leave some meat on that bone because Quinn’s not going to be cheap. And at that point, the numbers could be real crazy in another couple years from now. But I said a lot. There’s a lot to digest. Throw it all out there in the comments. Let me know what you think about anything I said in this video. Let me know what you think about anything Elliot Freriedman said. The Jack contract, the Luke contract, Quinn, anything, everything new Jersey Devils hockey. Throw it out there in the comments. I enjoy talking to all of you. Summer rolls on. I got to get the studio in shape. I’ll be back soon in August. It is kind of dead, but I have a lot of ideas in this brain of mine. So, I’m going to start firing some more videos out for you guys on the regular. And that’s it. That is it. Thank you all for watching. I love you all. Like, comment, subscribe, and all that jazz. Until next time, friends. Let’s go Devils. [Applause]

The New Jersey Devils still have not signed defenseman Luke Hughes to a new contract.

There has been lots of speculation swirling around over the past few months about this.

Over a month ago Devils’ General Manager Tom Fitzgerald said that “signing Luke Hughes is my #1 priority.”

It is August 5th and there is still no deal.

Lots of NJ Devils fans want to see this announced ASAP.

There may be some hold ups behind the scenes.

The NHL is going through a bit of a transition phase right now, with the salary cap expected to continue to escalate into the future. As a result, players and their agents want to secure their rightful piece of the pie and not leave too much money on the table.

The Athletic put out an article last week talking about the best value contracts in the NHL.

Jack Hughes was #1 on the list. His agent Pat Brisson (NHL super agent) likely wasn’t happy to see that.

You can read the article below:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6513956/2025/07/29/nhl-best-contracts-2025-jack-hughes-brandon-hagel/

Elliotte Freidman discussed the list and it’s potential impact on contract negotiations across the league in his latest “32 Thoughts” Podcast. I share a clip of the most relevant portion of it in this video. You can listen to the full podcast below:

Hopefully Luke Hughes is signed soon and is a big part of the New Jersey Devils for years to come.

What do you think about all of this NJ Devils fans?

Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

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