As a Cardinals fan who witnessed Pujols’ 2022 season and chase for 700 home runs, it makes me wonder who will be next to reach that milestone or even 600 to be honest. Looking at the career home run leaders among active players as of 8/8/2025, every player who has exceeded 300 are in the 32 and older crowd. Aaron Judge is currently at 352 HRs per Baseball Reference so he is halfway to 700 but despite him hitting like crazy, he’s 33 so I’d say 500-550 is the highest realistic number for him and Juan Soto might have an outside chance at 600 and I know similar questions have been asked previously but just curious what you all think. I am confident that the next player to reach 500 is on this list but when it comes to 700, it’s a legitimate question whether or not the next member is someone that’s on our radar screens yet or not.

Watching Albert Pujols’ final season is one of my favorite baseball memories to date. I witnessed # 698 in person and as a 23 year old (I was 20 then), that’s the only Pujols home run I’ve seen in person at the ballpark and there was no doubt about it when he hit that ball. The first half of the season was rough but the second half was absolutely insane, specifically the period after he was at 687.

FYI, all credit goes to Baseball Reference for the leaderboard info.

36 comments

  4. If judge stays otherworldly and healthy for 5-6 more years he couod maaaaybe get 600. Nobody else on list getting there or all that close.

  5. I could see Schwarbs DHing forever and maybe getting to 600. But I’d need some odds to actually bet it.

    I don’t see any 700s here.

  6. New to baseball for only about 3 years. Never woulda thought Freddie Freeman had that many home runs.

  7. Shohei, if he hits like the past year and a half, would have a shot and maybe Soto at current pace. Others are not on this list IMO

  10. Bryce Harper _could_ get to 600 but he’d have to basically be ageless and play into his 40s. I don’t think any of these guys will though.

  11. I’m surprised more people aren’t saying Judge. He’s 33 and injury prone, but he also hits a *TON* of home runs. I’d bet on him DHing his way to 600. If he gets to 550-ish — which seems likely — barring some sort of crippling injury or dramatic dropoff, he’ll stick around for 600.

    [Also Fangraphs just asked this question and the response was kind of amusing:](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-judge-and-the-600-club/)

    >Decline is an inevitability for Judge, as it is for every player (and for all of us), but with better health and a higher peak, his glide through his 30s looks a lot more gentle. With another 16 homers projected in 2025 in the full ZiPS model, the system now projects Judge to finish his career with exactly 600 home runs (ZiPS gives him almost no chance of retiring with 590-599 homers since it’s milestone-aware).

  16. The 2020 shortened season hurt all players. Concern of an impending lock out could further hurt active player stat totals. Maybe Vlad Jr. will get his power back. Ten years of 30 homers would nearly put him at 500.

  18. Judge would have to play about 7 more seasons at current production averages to make 600 – call it 8 with some dropoff. I could definitely see him still hitting bombs at 41, he’s gigantic and his mechanics are excellent

  19. Yep if this doesnt put into perspective how impressive 700 is, then nothing does.

    No one on this liat has a legit chance.

    People overlook just how good pujols was because of the recency bias of his time spent in an Angels jersey. His Cardinals tenure was absolute dominance.

  20. Before the offensive explosion of the 90s, only 3 players had managed 600 HRs: Ruth, Aaron, Mays. If Ted Williams hadn’t missed 5 seasons due to WW2 and Korea he probably would have got there too.

    I’ll bet Judge gets to 500 but not 600. Trout will do the same if his health improves.

    No one gets to 700.

  21. I think the insane amount of analytics that became available to pitchers in the last 5-10 years, the prevalence of the shift and the affect it has on a hitters at-bat strategy and the willingness of team management to accept strikeouts in pursuit of power, have driven overall home run averages down.

    I did a quick Google search and found that we are actually approaching historic batting average lows. Pitchers have the edge right now. I don’t think we are going to see 600-700HR careers much in the near future.

  24. Underrated impact is the Covid season. All these guys missed out on 20-25 home runs which really matters when trying to hit something like 600

  25. I don’t think he’ll get to 600+ but it’s crazy to me that Manny Machado is still only 32!!

  34. Machado needs ~29 a year if he finishes out his contract.. maybe last 4-5 years he’s off his feet as DH and able to keep the power up.. why not? ~17 per year to get to 500 career. Could pretty reasonably push into top 20 all time.

  35. Realistically I find it hard to believe anyone hits 600.

    Averaging 30 HRs for 10 years is hard. Averaging 30hrs for 20 is hard. Especially when you are debuting in your 20s. Stanton looked on pace but has fallen off. Alonso is one of the more consistent 30hr guy but he’s at 250 and is already 30.

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