The details: Josh Norris is 26 and entering the fourth year of an eight-year deal he originally signed with the Senators in 2022, which carries a $7.95 million cap hit through 2030. The Sabres acquired him in a deal for Dylan Cozens at least year’s deadline which was not especially well-received.
The case that it’s a bad contract: Norris carries the highest cap hit of any Sabres forward, but is coming off consecutive seasons that saw his point total stuck in the 30s while his games played was in the 50s. Injuries have been a big part of his story, including missing all but eight games in 2022-23. He’s basically had one decent season in the NHL (a 35-goal, 55-point sophomore campaign in 2021-22) and has been both paid and hyped based on that single year. But three seasons and one team later, that year feels like an outlier for a disappointing player.
The case that it might be OK: Injuries are a two-way sword with this sort of debate. Yes, he has to stay healthy to earn his cap hit, and he hasn’t been able to. But that’s also why his numbers have been lackluster, and if he can get back to full health another 30-goal season seems realistic. He’s not a play-driver, but with a career shooting percentage of 18.1 (including two seasons north of 20), we can at least say that he has the potential to be an elite finisher, which is a hard skill to find in a center. And his teammates in Ottawa loved him.
It’s also worth noting Norris does not have any trade protection until next summer, and only a 10-team no-trade list after that, which gives the Sabres some flexibility if they need to reconsider the commitment. And he’ll be 31 when this deal expires, so unlike almost everyone else who shows up in Cap Court, the team isn’t on the hook for a bunch of write-off years at the end.
Key comparables: Norris slots in with similarly aged centers like Jack Hughes ($8 million) and Nick Suzuki ($7.85 million); that’s not exactly flattering, but those are also two contracts that are often viewed as solid bargains for their respective teams. Other comparisons would include the Blues duo of Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, both at $8.125 million. And of course, Norris will be forever linked with Dylan Cozens, whose deal has the same number of years left but carries a cheaper $7.1 million hit.
The ruling: Putting aside who won or lost the trade, this contract feels like a risky bet for the Sabres, even as you can understand why they may have felt like they needed to make it. For now I’m ruling it a bad contract, but Norris will have a fast track to an appeal hearing if he can stay healthy enough to produce a big goal-scoring year.
5 comments
That’s a lot of words to say “his contract is bad if he’s bad and good if he’s good”
TLDR; he’s good when he’s healthy.
Maybe a touch overpaid but a better point producer than Cozens. Also completely insane that our season hasn’t even started and it’s already hinging on players with injury histories staying healthy. Hope is a shitty strategy. Go Sabres.
Norris Better have spent the last few months in an immersion tank getting infused with adamantium like Wolverine … 😒
Norris can make plays, score goals, and win games when healthy. The Sabres’ improved strength and conditioning can help with that. The additional benefit is not having an underachiever forward who talked talked about wanting to play better, but did not walk walks by not scoring and doing nothing.
He’s better than cozens. He doesn’t play as much as him though