Why learning from Edmonton Oilers mistakes is so important to sustain a window of contention

Why learning from Edmonton Oilers mistakes is so important to sustain a window of contention

When it comes to understanding the Edmonton Oilers recent predicament, just two transactions stand out. On today’s edition of Locked on Oilers, what we can learn from recent Edmonton Oilers history and what the Oilers need to avoid going forward. [Music] You are Locked On Oilers, your daily podcast on the Edmonton Oilers, part of the Locked On Network. Your team every day. to today’s Wednesday edition of Lockdown Oilers. I am your host Nick Zerars. This upcoming October will be my fourth NHL season with the Lockdown Podcast Network and I want to thank everyone that is making Lockdown Oilers their first listen of the day. Lockdown Oilers is brought to you by our friends over at FanDuel. With football season right around the corner, you should visit the FanDuel app today and start planning your futures now. On today’s edition of Locked on Oilers, we are going to naturally follow up yesterday’s good moves episode with two binary bad moves that have put the Oilers in a difficult position and why those moves made sense, at least in the context of the time, what you can learn from them, and frankly what isn’t avoidable about a mistake, about a bad roster transaction. Because there is an innate, and we can start the conversation here. There is an innate understanding that every roster transaction comes with a commiserate amount of risk. Now, there are varying degrees, sliding scales of risk, and there are different types of risk. Is it we’re going to give this guy an opportunity for him to play himself into a bigger role, and if he doesn’t pop off, we need to fill that bigger role. Is it a young guy we like, but hasn’t proven himself yet, but we’re invested in his trajectory, so we’re more inclined to give him time? Is it a restricted free agent contract? And that’s where we’re going to start today’s show talking about the Darnell Nurse Extension. I don’t think you can have a conversation about the Edmonton Oilers and their salary cap management and the financial position they’re in right now without addressing the fact that they are paying a third pair defenseman first pair money. And I think we need to all look at the context. And that’s really what’s confounding and frustrating about this. While at the time and Darnell signed the extension he’s currently on in the fall of 2021. So you let let’s back up a little bit. Let’s rewind. 2019 2020 the NHL season stops the week of St. Patrick’s Day because of the pandemic. The players come back in August. We do the bubble playoffs that end midocctober if I remember correctly, early October. in November whi which would be July of a normal calendar the players s Darnell Nurse signs that extension in November right as the season is coming back he signs that extension the one he’s on currently that pays him as one of the best defenseman in the NHL to understand the context of that to understand the math you have to recall a few factors number one Seth Jones had just signed that huge extension in Chicago you have the looming prospect of the cap impacts of the pandemic, which frankly are only finally starting to dissipate now, four years later. A lot of people thought it wouldn’t take that long, and it took the NHL quite a while to recover from the financial implications of the pandemic. The NHL, of course, is a gate driven league. The more tickets you sell, the more financial power your team has when you can’t sell tickets. And we, as we all know, the Canadian teams, the Canadian government took CO restrictions a little more seriously than the American government. So they were a lot more reticent to allow maximum or close to maximum capacity for longer. So teams had more money to make up. But Darnell Nur signing that extension when he did was a perfect storm of circumstantial factors. Number one, he puts up a good statistical season counting stats wise. So that’s the first thing. Number two, he does it in a year with weird divisions. If you’ll recall, and I sure do, that North Division, the seven Canadian teams in that 2021 season, the 56 gamer that started at the end of January and ended in mid July, that was one of the most chaotic and frankly exciting stretches of hockey I have ever watched. If you’ll recall, most of those teams pretty poor defensively, pretty poor goalending. Offense, very easy to come by in that North Division. Lots of opportunities at offense. And in an offense first environment, there’s going to be more of an inclination to drive towards chance creation to score more goals. And to account for that, to make up for that, the Oilers had to score more. And you know, they lost in the first round to the Jets that year, obviously, which was a big upset at the time. and the Oilers had swept them in the regular season, but in the playoffs the Jets pulled that off. You think about it. So, you’ve got a player coming off a strong statistical year. They’re 25 years old. Oh, yeah. And Oscar Cleftbomb, who has been one of the biggest minutes eaters for the Oilers over the previous 5 years. We don’t know if he’s ever going to play hockey again because of the injuries he sustained. So with all of those factors compounding into each other and the fact Arnell Nurse was a restricted free agent, Ken Holland was faced with a very difficult choice. Do I give him the long-term extension now and hope what we saw this past season continues to go into the future and ultimately proves to be what Darnellur is, or do I run the risk of bridge dealing him one or two years and him playing even better and owing him even more money? That’s the conundrum. the binary Ken Holland was faced with in the fall of 2021. And I understand why Ken Holland made the decision he did, but I think more so than the move we’ll talk in the second segment, the Jack Campbell signing, I think this one was more easily noticeable. I think we all understood to a lesser to varying degrees. I would say Darnell Nurse is a limited hockey player. There are some things he does pretty well. He’s an above average skater. He’s got okay puck skills, but his decision- making, his hockey instincts, those are not as good. He is not the most adept at making the right decision at the right time. He doesn’t have great risk assessment. He loves to try and throw the big hit and often takes himself out of position in the attempt to make that play. So when you think about it in the abstract, in the vacuum, you had the team’s Bellcow first pair left defenseman and Oscar Clebomb get hurt. You did the Duncan Keith experiment which didn’t work particularly well. You had Nurse entering restricted free agency coming off a pretty good counting stat season and an offense first division where the environmental factors were a little wonky because the defense and the goalending overall weren’t particularly good. You add up those three circumstantial factors and I using a little bit of hockey reference could have told you, hey, this might be an outlier season. And look, I’m not saying Darnell Nurse isn’t good at the price point he is at. When you look at where some of the other players at similar price points, Adam Fox, Quinn Hughes, um, Zack Warensky, who are all Norris Trophy caliber guys in relation to what Darnell Nurse is giving you at nine $9 and a4 million, you know, n4 million is a superstar caliber player. Carell Capriovv is making $9.5 million this upcoming season. Adam Fox makes nine and a quarter. when you are dealing with those price points. And look, real quick on this subject before we take our first break, it does suck to some degree that we all need to be salary cap experts now because of how important it is to the understanding of building a contender. It’s not just enough that you are paying market value for your talent. In an ideal world, you want to be underpaying your market your talent by virtue by the way of their market value. You want to be paying guys less than they’re worth. And it it’s an unfortunate byproduct of such a low salary cap, especially in relation to the other sports. You think about how much hockey players get paid in relation to basketball, football. And look, I’m not saying it’s better that those guys get paid more, but I am not as occupied with how much individual players cost in football, in basketball, because there’s more money to go around. So, in hockey, you do have to talk about the fact nurse makes the money he does. You do have to talk about the fact that for his price point, you could be getting a superstar impact player and instead you’re getting a fringe second, third pair guy who occasionally plays a lot of minutes because of just game situation where his his size and his skating are valued in defensive first situations, even though he’s not particularly adept at the mechanics of playing good defense. He has the ability to play good defense, but his decision-m is just too far erratic to become dependable to really rely on in those defense first in game on the line situations. We are going to take our first break on today’s edition of Locked on Oilers. When we come back, we’re going to talk about why the goalie market is so hard and why that Jack Campbell signing was probably worth the risk. Coming up next, August 26th is officially FanDuel Futures Day. A brand new holiday for football fans who live for bold predictions and preseason hunches. For just 24 hours, FanDuel is giving you deals on NFL season predictions. So whether you’re calling MVP, longot division winners, or you think you know who’s going to win the Super Bowl before week one even kicks off, this is your moment. For me, if I was looking for a dart throw, a flyer in the MVP race, I’d love to do something like CJ Strad. If I was going to bet on a Super Bowl champion, I hate to say it, but I think the Eagles are going to roll through the NFC and all they got to do is get to the Super Bowl and they’re going to have a really good chance to be better than whoever they play. Whether that’s the Ravens, the Chiefs, the Bills, god forbid the Bills actually make the Super Bowl. Visit the FanDuel app today and start planning your futures bets now because futures day is one day and one day only. FanDuel, play your game. Thank you to everyone who is hanging out on this Wednesday edition of Locked on Oilers as we are making our way through the dead of summer. So, if you’re if you didn’t catch yesterday’s episode, we broke down two really transformational moves in the positive, signing Zack Heyman in free agency, trading for Matias Eol, and the trickle down effect those had on the rest of the team. Now, today we’re doing the inverse, the negative. Tomorrow we’re going to talk very silly, very, very silly to be talking about this on a Thursday in August, but we’re going to touch on who’s going to be available at the trade deadline next March. Next week, we will do the all Conor McDavid team with a couple parameters based on some of the workshopping stuff I’ve done over the last week or so, which the roster is assembled. Uh we’re going to do forwards, defense, goalies, three different episodes over the course of next week while I am away on vacation. By the time you are watching this episode, I very well might be in the motherland over in Ireland. So, if there is any breaking news, I will do my best to react to a McDavid extension or a trade should one come. But more likely than not, it’ll be a little bit. Okay. So, Jack Campbell is a fascinating case study. And for me in particular, I find the goalending conversation in hockey to be the most interesting and the most compelling because I would argue that in all of sports, it is the position we understand statistically the least. Because they are so environmentally dependent, because there is so much variance on a shift to shift basis on what’s happening in front of them, it is really difficult to evaluate goalie talent. Number two, it is really hard to get fair value for goalie talent. You think about how long it took the Anaheim Ducks to trade John Gibson. You think about the inability of some of these teams to get fair value for say Jacob Marstrom for the Flames or what the Nashville Predators got for Ascarov the prospect goalie that from the San Jose Sharks. You think about what the Florida Panthers got for Spencer Knight, somebody who was a really highly touted amateur goalie and had had a decent okay an interesting sample size of success. But for me, I think the most telling aspect, and we’re going to get to the Jack Campbell of this in a second, the most telling factor for me, and I’m going to click on over to my note sheet here because I broke it down. So last year, of the 32 most common starters in the NHL, 17 of them were drafted by the team they started the majority of those games for. So when I click on over to my not sheet here, Lucas Dolto, Jeremy Swayman, Uko Pekalucinan, Dustin Wolf, Peter Cochetov, Elvis Mleakens, Jakeer, Steuart Skitter, Jussi Sorrowos, Ilas Aroken, Igor Schesterurkin, Samuel Ersen, Joey Decord, I will give you even though that’s expansion draft, not the not the amateur draft, Jordan Bennington, Andre Vasilki, Thatcher Demco, and then Connor Hellabuk. More than half of the starters in the NHL last year were drafted by the team they started the games for. And I think that is so telling and I I make this comparison a lot. Goalies in hockey are a lot like quarterbacks in football. Even if your team is not very good, you are going to be inclined to hold on to a goalie even if you think there’s a glimmer of something there because there are just so few quality goalies in the NHL. And I it’s not I don’t think it’s a coincidence that some of the best goalies in the NHL were on that aforementioned list. Connor Hella, Andre Basilki, Shist Sturken, Siroken, all preeminent Jussi Sorrowos has had a long track record of success. Jay Ginger, I know the sample is a little spotty and we’re all kind of waiting for him to make that leap into VZNA contention, but we are talking about for the most part all of the league’s best goalies are long-term firmly entrenched starters. guys who have been in one place for a long time. Which begs the question, who are the goalies that move? Who are the goalies that get traded or get to free agency? Now, starting with free agency, Sergey Babroski is the biggest outlier in the history of goalending and free agency because a he was the highest paid player in the highest paid goalie in the history of unrestricted free agency. And then number two, he’s a Hall of Famer. You win two Stanley Cups and two VZNA. Sergey Babrosvski based on his resume is going to go to the hockey hall of fame and that is the extreme outlier. That is the best case scenario because when you click on over to the other free agent starters last year, Carola, okay, decent starter for Utah, somebody who has upside who I’m curious about. Cam Talbot who’s played for half of the teams in the NHL. I think Cam Talbot is like the best case scenario for the goalie carousel if you end up with someone if you end up needing a placeholder. And then Alex and Nadelkovich, who the Penguins signed and then subsequently traded this summer, but to the Sharks. Those are all guys who other than Barovski, I think are fine in tandemss. I’d be fine if Cam Talbot was Steuart Skinner’s backup. If Alex Nad Nadulkovich was Steu’s backup, if Caravla and him were in a straightup tandem, I’d be good with that. And then you get to the trades. The trades are where it’s interesting. Jacob Marstrom, probably the best one in this cohort, somebody who’s flirted with as in a contention of the Devils. Aiden Hill, who won a Stanley Cup as an injury replacement. McKenzie Blackwood, who reinvented himself after getting traded to the Avalanche. Peter Morazzic, who’s bounced around quite a bit. Darcy Keer, who had a nice bounceback season in LA after a rough year in Washington. Philip Gustoson, probably the youngest player with the most upside in this group, who has traded straight up for Cam Talbot, which I find very interesting. Lena Smark, somebody who has a VNA trophy to their belt. Alex Gorggv, who looks pretty broken. And then Logan Thompson. And this brings us to Jack Campbell. And I’ve long maintained this opinion, and I think this is my biggest golden rule when it comes to goalie acquisition. If you are looking at somebody who has only ever been a tandem goalie or a backup goalie, you need to account for the jump in workload. And I think this is especially pertinent when we’re talking about young guys, guys who are going from the amateur ranks, whether that’s junior hockey or college hockey, even just to the AHL. That is such a fundamentally different workload. In college, you’re playing two or three times a week for three months, 30, 40 game season. In the NHL, in the AHL, and the NHL, you are playing two or three times a week, maybe four times a week for seven months. And that’s just to get to the playoffs. That is just to get to the playoffs. And that brings us to Jack Campbell, who I think was very much a victim of overuse. I think when you break it down just purely on the numbers, prior to his two years as a starter for the Leafs, he’d been a backup for Jonathan Quick in LA. In the two years as a Leaf, excuse me, in the two years prior to becoming the Leaf starter, he had 57 starts. In the two years before coming to the Oilers, he had 71. Now, 14 starts does not sound like a lot, but when you’re talking about a guy who was starting 19 to 30 games a season, 14 in a 2-year window is a big leap. That is a big jump in workload, especially when you want to add up the fact that those four seasons come one after the other after the other after the other. You’re talking about 120 starts for a guy who had 60 or 70 combined the previous four or five years. So when you start to add those minutes up, you think about how Jack Campbell dealt with those injuries that last season in Toronto, how the Leafs maybe rushed him back a little bit for the playoffs because they were so desperate to break through the Oilers. And to their credit, look, and I said this yesterday and I want to be fair, it is important that even if you make a mistake, you don’t become gunshy. The most important thing, and we’ll talk about this in our final segment where we’ll talk about the big picture lessons, philosophy, ideas, you can’t get gunshy. And I do think there is a part of the Oilers organization right now that is a little scared to try and improve on Steuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard as their goalie situation because they understand how fragile this is, how difficult it is to get even incremental improvements at this position because it is so unstable year-over-year. We’re going to take our second and final break on today’s edition of Lockdown Oilers. When we come back, I’m going to tell you the big lessons and what the Oilers learned, what they haven’t learned. Coming up next. Did you just realize your business needed to hire someone like yesterday? How can you find amazing candidates fast? Easy. Just use Indeed. When it comes to hiring, Indeed is all you need. Stop struggling to get your job posting on other sites. Indeed sponsored jobs put your post at the top of the page and help you reach the right candidates faster. We’ve all been in that spot where our team needs the right hire. Like yesterday, the pressure’s on. And every day without the right person isn’t just a setback to you, it’s a setback to your entire team. That’s exactly when Indeed sponsor jobs come in handy. They make sure your post is seen by the right candidates right now. And now you can speed up your hiring process with a $75 sponsor job credit. Just go to indeed.com/lockedon right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring indeed is all you need. Thank you to everyone who is hanging out on this Wednesday edition of Locked on Oilers as we are talking lessons and philosophies. And it may not surprise you to know this as some if you’re an everydayer, you know this, but if you’re new, if you’re relatively new to Locked on Oilers, I’m a history guy. I find history to be the most important subject you can research, you can study. I pretty much exclusively read historical non-fiction in my free time because I want to understand why things are the way they are. It’s not just enough to know what’s going on. You need to have a material understanding of why things are the way they are. And that takes hundreds of years to understand. And look, I know I’m never going to go know everything. It’s just it’s not possible. There is simply too much to know. But when we’re talking about hockey, when we’re talking about trends and philosophies and ideas, the most important one, and this is fact, you need to be malleable. You need to understand where things are going and how you’re going to get there. So, in applying the conversation around Darnell Nurse and around Jack Campbell on this show to big ideas, broader concept that aren’t player specific. Number one, and I think the Evan Buchard situation this summer is a good example. If you are sure about a young player, if you have conviction in your evaluation and you feel confident, you can feel good about giving a restricted free agent the contract with term. And I think the Oilers after last summer where they got a little they got punked by the Blues in Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. I think there was definitely a bit of a fear that Evan Bousard would at least consider an offer sheet for the right price that I know the Carolina Hurricanes if they hadn’t been linked to Nick Eers I believe were the team in question that were interested in offer sheet excuse me no if they couldn’t get Kandre Miller from the Rangers they were going to be interested in offer sheeting Evan Bousard. That’s an example of understanding the market. And look, Bousard bet on himself to some degree, only taking the four-year deal. At four years, Evan Bousard’s going to get to unrestricted free agency at 29. And he’s going to have a golden opportunity to cash in for 7 years at 12 million, 13 million, whatever the going rate is for a fringe point per game defenseman that Bard’s capable of being. What did you learn from that Darnell Nurse situation? Number one, if you’re not sure or you don’t feel great about it, bridge, bridge, bridge. When you have a player where the environment was wonky, especially for a full season, you know, if it were a normal 82 game season, Darnell Nurse had close to a careerhigh in points, the team had a nice regular season. Okay, that weighs a little bit more than a 56game season where you play the same seven teams eight times each. that feels a little bit less statistically likely to bear out year over year over year. I think the other part of this that is difficult sometimes and not always. Frankly, I I would say most of the time it’s the opposite. The Oilers were scared to go into a future with no clear-cut number one defenseman. They realized that if Darnell Nurse they signed him to a restricted free agent deal, if they bridged him one or two years to 26 or 27, he was 25 when he signed the contract he’s on right now. If he they had signed him to a one or two-year deal and he took a leap, he would have been the most expensive defenseman in hockey. So their logic, Ken Holland’s logic was we get him now and we take that leap and it looks good. The problem of course being that a lot of the environmental environmental factors that got Darnell Nurse to that strong season weren’t replicable. They weren’t repeatable. And because of that, the Oilers have are stuck with one of the worst contracts in the NHL. And look, as time goes on, that number becomes more palatable. Doesn’t mean it’s okay. Doesn’t mean the Oilers aren’t overpaying him, but with time that will become less of an issue. It is still an issue. Now, as for Jack Campbell and the goalie conversation, which I do think is a bit more broad, I think, first of all, and I’ve long maintained this position, I I think it’s the same exact thing you do in football. If even if you have a good start, if you’re the Rangers and you have Shurkin, if you’re the Predators and you have Jussi Sorrowos, if you’re the Lightning, you have Andre Vasileski, you should be drafting a developmental goalie every year. you have six, seven, five, however many draft picks you got, take one, stash him in Europe for a few years, stash them in junior hockey, put them in the AHL. You can never have enough. Same thing, same reason the Patriots drafted all those guys, whether it was Brassette, Ryan Mallet, all of those guys, Jared Stdum, you know, none of them panned out into anything of note with other organizations. But you can never have enough of those guys. If you have a developmental project you like, you stash them, you wait. If the opportunity comes up, maybe you Jimmy G him. You get a nice little third round pick. You get a second round pick and you move along. I I still really wish the Oilers would commit to this to some degree. I think any especially as a team that doesn’t have a clear-cut long-term starter. The Oilers are going to have a very awkward decision to make next summer when it comes to Stuart Skinner because there’s not going to be an appetite amongst the fan base to commit to him into his late 20s and early 30s. I don’t think you can realistically sell Steuart Skinner as a long-term starter to this fan base after the way the last two years have gone. And look, again, I’ve been very clear-cut for each of the last two years. I don’t think Stuart Skinner was the difference between winning and losing the Stanley Cup. But if you dropped an above average goalie in there, I don’t think it’s out of the question that an above average goalie could have swung either of those series in another direction. And that’s where it becomes a challenge because you look at how hard it is to upgrade. You think about what goalies get to market. Did you really want Alexander Gorgiev? Did you want Ilia Samsonov? Not really. Those guys sting, too. And the Oilers suppose the devil they know is better than the one they don’t. And you can make all types of philosophical arguments about whether or not that’s a a smart way to build a hockey team. If that’s a way that makes sense. I for one wish the Oilers could have found a way to make something happen. Of course, the salary restrictions make it a real challenge for them to upgrade this position. And it’s why even though I don’t have like any reason to, I’m a bit more understanding and I can arrest that. That’s the thing for me. I don’t need to agree with what a decision maker, a stakeholder does as far as keeping a player, getting a player, getting rid of a player. I just want to be able to understand it because evaluation perspective, all of those are different. what I value and my evaluation might be different from what you value. What you value might be different from what someone else. That’s really the point here. When we’re talking about small margins, when we’re talking about limited options, you need to be creative. You need to be inventive. And if you are the Oilers and we’re talking about goalies, I get why you were reticent to dip your toe back in or you didn’t want to trade to get maybe a modest upgrade based on how difficult it is to get fair value when you are trading for a goalie. I get it. They didn’t have the room to acquire John Gibson. None of the free agent goalies were particularly inspiring. Did you want to give the Penguins assets for Alex Nadelkovic and have two be goalies in a tandem? Not really. you would rather spend that money on an extra forward because the difference between a $2 million goalie and a $3 million goalie isn’t all that much. Whereas signing Andrew Mongji Aani versus that extra goalie, that’ll have more of a material impact, at least to me. At least to me. All right, that’ll do it for today’s edition of Locked on Oilers. Thank you to everyone who made Locked on Oilers their first listen of the day. Be sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcast. If you’re on Apple or Spotify, please leave the show a fivestar review. If you’re watching over on YouTube, hit that subscribe button. Hit that alarm bell, get a notification whenever new content goes live. Be sure to check out Locked on NHL and Locked On NHL Game Night where they are breaking down all 32 teams ahead of the 2025 2026 NHL season. I will talk to you guys tomorrow. Until then, let’s go Oilers.

The Edmonton Oilers are still in a window of Stanley Cup contention, but past mistakes are starting to put a squeeze on the team’s ability to maintain its status. On today’s edition of locked on Oilers, Host Nick Zararis explores why the Darnell Nurse extension and Jack Campbell Free Agency signing failed. Nick explores the environmental factors that led up to both decisions, explains why the deals, at least at the time, made sense, and what can be learned.

In addition, Nick takes those lessons and builds out a longer range, big picture plan for improvement in front office decision making in assessing and tolerating risk.

0:00 Intro: Understanding Oilers’ recent predicament

4:08 North Division’s impact on Nurse’s contract

8:13 Salary cap implications for NHL teams

12:17 Goalie market challenges and team retention

16:51 Jack Campbell’s workload increase with Leafs

20:56 Lessons from Bouchard and Nurse contracts

24:29 Importance of drafting developmental goalies yearly

28:04 Outro: Upcoming NHL season preview

Why learning from Edmonton Oilers mistakes is so important to sustain a window of contention
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