Washington Capitals: Dubois Breakout, Ovechkin’s 900 Goal Chase, Leonard Rising & Roy Under Review

Washington Capitals: Dubois Breakout, Ovechkin’s 900 Goal Chase, Leonard Rising & Roy Under Review

On today’s show, what to expect from pure Luke Dubois in the 2025 2026 season. Next on this edition of Locked on Capitals. You’re Locked on Capitals, your daily podcast on the Washington Capitals, part of the Locked On Network. Your team every day. Well, hello and welcome into this edition of Locked On Capitals, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. My name is Dan Holy. I’ve covered the Capitals for the past three seasons for Locked On and various other outlets before that. I’m also the host of the weekly show called The Capitals Minute Cast, available wherever you find your podcasts. And as always, I want to thank you for making this your first listen of the day. Today’s episode is brought to you by our friends at FanDuel. Football season is around the corner. Visit the FanDuel app today and start planning your futures bet now. So, in this edition of Locked on Capitals, we talk about the Capitals leaning into the youth more than we’ve seen well in quite some time. And one of those key players, Ryan Leonard is looking to impress as he is going to be playing in the NHLPA Rookie Showcase. What to expect there a bit later, the numbers on Matt Roy. Um, a big addition a couple summers ago. Uh, we know the Capitals acquired him from the Kings and some good and some bad. I’ll dive into both of those, but just to get it going here, what to expect from pure Luke Dubois in the 2526 season. And is this the new Pure Luke Dubois or is his history is what we’ve seen from him in years before, is that going to come back or is, like I say, is he a changed man? Let’s dive into that in segment number one here. And just a quick history lesson if you don’t remember is that a couple summers ago Brian Mlen said that he was going to make some big moves. And the big move right out of the gate was pure Luke Dubois who signed that 8year deal with the Kings. Uh, as it turns out, the Kings were looking for goalending and uh, well, they had Darcy Camper, who was a bit of a square peg in a round hole for the Capitals in the net minding department. And the Capitals, well, they were looking for a center. Uh, so that is how the trade took place with the Kings. But the hard part about all of it was was that 8-year deal with the Kings. And wow, that is a big bite out of that apple of pure Luke Dubois. We better hope this works out because the word out there was that this guy was a cancer in the locker room that he mailed it in and didn’t you take a look at his stats from last season, Dan? Um, so let’s dive into that. What to expect from Pier Luke Dubois? Is he a changed man with the new systems, the new coaching? Uh, it’ll be an interesting conversation. Let’s dive into it here in segment number one. And, uh, like I say, when he came to the Capitals, it was met with a lot of questions. What pure Luke Dubois were we going to see? Was it going to be the guy from Columbus or was it going to be the guy that we had seen from the year before with the Kings? Uh, turns out if you take a look at it, it does appear uh in that oneyear snapshot that we got the guy from Columbus and actually better if you can believe it a careerhigh 66 points. Uh that is quite an about face uh from what we had seen from him in uh the year before. 66 points in his first season with the Caps, 40 before that. And uh a guy that really dazzled, I guess I’m going to say in the regular season in his first season uh with the Capitals, playing on that second line center. Uh, like I said, when he first came here, I didn’t know if he was going to be playing on the first line with Alex Svetchkin, but it wasn’t all rosy and smooth sailing uh for pure Luke Dubois because a lot like other Capitals players, he failed to impress or show up in a lot of ways in the playoffs. In 10 playoff games for the Capitals last season, zero goals and three assists. though a far cry uh from what we had seen from him during the regular season. But the thing about pure Luke Dubois, if we’re going to just kind of put the playoffs to the side right now, because I think it’s more important uh in a lot of ways to judge him based on what we saw during the regular season, um is that he played with confidence and he played with purpose. And honestly, um you know, he looked like he was having fun. And you know, it’s one of those things like, well, it’s your job. It shouldn’t be about having fun. I think if you’re going to be a successful athlete at a professional level, you better have fun doing it. And uh that’s a big deal for Pier Luke Dubois because the year before in LA, it uh you know, it just never looked like he found his spot. Um but like a lot of other Capitals players, it looks like that he found the right fit in Washington with Spencer Carberry as the head coach. And why is that? He gave the freedom uh to pure Luke Dubois to just go out there and play your game. He said just play your game, you know, don’t think about it too much. And it’s confidence. Like I’ve talked about that. We’ve seen players like that struggle before where I think he was feeling kind of defeated playing on the Kings in the previous season. Uh but we’ve seen that before with Mantha having a down season then finding his confidence and even Alex Ovetchkin. Um so that is the big thing there. Um, but you know, the thing of it is, like I say, in a vacuum, was last year a oneoff, uh, or can we continue to see a successful pure Luke Dubois? Uh, because he signed to an $8.5 million contract through 2031. That’s a big commitment. And, um, you know, it’s hard to say. you know, I guess we can get a more accurate reading on what we see from him next season because, you know, you could view one season as a one-off, but to put up career numbers, um, I think that’s a bit more telling. Um, because if this is the guy that we’re getting, uh, that is a cornerstone piece for the next next era of Capitals hockey. think um well think post Ovetkin hockey that they’re going to need leaders on this team to step up uh when OV steps aside and um you know don’t forget also about Pier Luke Dubois um talking about Alex Ovetkin transitioning here he was a big part of one of the biggest moments in franchise history um Alex Ovetkin breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record uh it’s got to be quite refreshing to go from the Kings to the Capitals and just totally embraced the whole goal chase by Alex Ovetchkin. And uh if you remember that goal, Obie scores, the place goes nuts, and then he belly flops on the ice like it’s well summer vacation. And um it’s an interesting story there to talk about that is that it wasn’t exactly uh what was planned. Turns out it was more of an ac. and Pier Luke Tubois, he confirmed that um in an article with TVA Sports. He said he didn’t plan on do doing that. He just tripped because, well, the ice was poor uh in the game that they were playing. Um but now it’s a part of that, you know, iconic celebration. In a lot of ways, it was very fitting because, you know, when you saw it happen, it didn’t look like it was an accident. It just looked like I finally did it and just, you know, it didn’t look like it was an accident even though we find out after the fact that’s what it is. That’s peak Ovie right there. Uh, so now Oie sitting at 8.97, three away from 900. And Caps fans, how fun is next season going to be? Um if this is you know very well could be Alex Ovetkin last season and pure Luke Dubois playing um you know big a big role at the Capitals on that second line center. It could be huge. Um talking about Ovetkin though. Could does he hit 50 goals again? Uh we saw what he put up last season. Does he push, you know, does he just keep moving the goalpost further and further and further? The one thing I know, if this is in fact the last season of Alex Ovetkin in the NHL, it is going to be mustwatch TV. Every night when when the Capitals are playing, you’re going to want to watch it because it very well could be the last harrah of Oie. But you know as far as pier Luke Dubois is concerned to be a part of such um a monumental moment you know that Alex Ovetkin was able to uh to finally break the record the unthinkable thing to break Wayne Gretzky’s record the great one uh who was going to touch that and for Pure Luke Dubois to be involved in that in such a great moment is huge. Again, to kind of circle back here, we’re hoping that Pure Luke Dubois has another breakout season to just really screw down and nail down that second line center position because we know Strowmer’s holding it down on the first line and I think that the Capitals will take the Metro. I think they’ll take the Eastern Conference uh by storm. All right, so coming up here after the break, we’ll talk about Ryan Leonard and the rookie showcase. Straight ahead. The NFL season is almost here and FanDuel is making sure you’re ready for kickoff with a can’tmiss offer. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. I love using FanDuel because it fits however you like to bet. player props, building a same game parlay, or even jumping in on live action as it unfolds, it makes every game more exciting. So whether you’re watching the the Commanders or the Ravens, it makes it that much more exciting. So it’s quick, it’s easy, and the best way to add a little more energy to Sundays if you don’t need it already. So are you ready to play? Download the FanDuel app now by using fanduel.com to get started. That’s fanduel.com to place your first $5 bet. All right, welcome back into this edition of Locked On Capitals, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. You can find me over on Twitter, it’s DanCaps28. You can find the show on Twitter, it’s locked on Caps. So, in segment two here, we’re talking about future pieces, future building blocks, like I talked about in the first segment with pure Luke Dubois being one of those building blocks of the future. In that very same breath, you could put Ryan Leonard. And he is gearing up for the NHLPA rookie showcase to show what he has in the tank yet again. And what did we see from Ryan Leonard last year? um knocked it out of the park with Boston College, right? And joined the Capitals in the latter part of the season there and uh you know, he he tried to integrate. It is jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire fire uh the NCAA to the NHL. Uh we’re hoping to see more, but what is next for Mr. Ryan Leonard? Let’s dive into that in the second segment of the show. Um cuz like I say, if there’s a player you want to pay attention to in the future, it’s got to be Ryan Leonard. He’s going to be um playing at the NHLPA Rookie Showcase at MedStar next month. And listen, this event isn’t just for fun. This is where the league brings in the guys they believe are the future. And I think it’s a fairly safe thing to say that Ryan Leonard uh fixes to be a big part of the Capitals future. Um, and like I said, they don’t just invite anybody. So, B, so Ryan Leonard being there, that is a big deal. And, you know, if you didn’t know, in my opinion, the kid is the real deal. And, uh, he got just a sip, a taste of the NHL action last season in se 17 games. And in those 17 games, you saw flashes of greatness. I think uh the tip of the iceberg of what we can expect to see from him in the future because he has the skills in his skill set. He’s got that NHL level shot. He’s got the compete level and he’s got the physicality that this team needs. And uh like I’ve talked about, if you’re an everyday on the show, you know, I talked about how I think he’s cut from kind of the same mold um as Tom Wilson. But if you look at his trajectory, in a lot of ways, I think he’s actually going to be a better player uh than Tom Wilson at some point. And um this isn’t a guy who’s going to shy away from contact and kind of a you know a prototypical Capital like I’ve talked about kind of dubbed uh a lot of Capitals players as physical uh tall and ready to bring you know their agame and not afraid of finishing their checks and not afraid if you’re pushing the team around to drop the mits and take care of business. And you know, he’s the guy that’s not afraid of doing whatever it takes to get the job done, playing, uh, you know, play in the dirty areas. He wants to win those board battles and in the playoffs, that’s huge. Um, you know, and I have no doubt the Capitals will make it to the playoffs again next season. And with a complete NHL season under his belt, um, I think that we’re going to just see this team even do better than we’ve seen last season. I always do like the point counterpoint and I talked about do I think the Capitals will take a step back. A lot of it is going to be determined on the youth and if Ryan Leonard can take the step a step forward like I think he can that could be huge. Um but the big question you know is there’s going to be fights out there as far as roster spots are concerned. We’re talking Crystal, Miro, Sunonny Milano, Hendricks Lop here is where does a guy like Ryan Leonard slot in? Uh do you start him on the third line and kind of give him more limited minutes or um do you try and shake it up and put him in like more of a top six role? Uh but the thing I know is that if it clicks early in the season when he’s playing on the top six, uh he’s not going to relinquish that. I think that uh if you get a taste that he is the real deal, the very reason why the Capitals drafted him where they did, he is going to be a gamecher for the Capitals. If you’re asking for my early take, I think that in some of the preeason, we will uh get a look at him and some top six minutes and top six roles to see how he clicks. you know, say he, you know, it’s with Ovie and Stro or if it’s, you know, Conor Mcichael and pure Luke Dubois or whatever the case might be, you’re going to see increased minutes. And I think um that we’re going to really see uh his career, you know, in the NHL start to take shape. Um and don’t be surprised uh if you see him on the power play as well. Special teams is something, you know, I think for the Capitals that need some work. you know, maybe not right away, uh, but maybe PP2 by midseason if you want to set a goal for him. I could definitely see that. Uh, like I said, he’s got the skills and his skill set. This isn’t a lower draft pick. There was high hopes for Ryan Leonard. Um, and you know, like I said, he’s got that shot. He’s got the hockey IQ. He’s got the instincts uh to take his game to the next level. And, uh, that on the man advantage could be huge. Um, and the other thing about him, you know, like I talked about leadership is he has that intrinsically as a leader and the Capitals are going to look for leaders in the vacuum if in fact Alex Ovetchkin that is his final season and uh, everyone who knows him says that he is a guy who plays with swagger. Uh some people might misconstrue that as cockiness. And hey, if he’s cocky, if he can put up the numbers, you let him go out there and put his swagger on and be as cocky as he wants to be. If the results back up the swag, then I’m all about it. Uh cuz he’s confidence and he wants the puck in big moments. And um you know, some people have said, “Well, we don’t know what kind of Ryan Leonard we’re going to see. We only saw him play at Boston College and you know, on the international stage.” Yeah. but he knocked it out of the park. The guy’s compete level I is next level. So, um him playing at that rookie showcase, uh it’s not just a headline. It’s a sign the future is almost here. And um I’m excited. I don’t know if you guys can tell, but I’m excited for the start of the hockey season already. The training camp is going to be here before you know it, and the roster is going to take shape. And you better believe that Ryan Leonard is going to be a huge piece of next season and the future big picture. It’ll be really fun to see what he has in the tank at the NHL uh PA rookie showcase to play against some truly elite talent. Um that you know I I’m I’m drinking the Kool-Aid on Ryan Leonard because I’m a Capitals fan and a podcaster for the Capitals uh for locked on Capitals. But it’s not just that. I I really think that he is one of the best players in the National Hockey League and it’ll be interested interesting to see him lined up against that kind of talent. All right, so coming up here after the break, we’ll talk about the numbers behind Matt Royy’s success and well, in some cases, lack thereof. Straight ahead, we have an important request. Locked on wants to hear from you. We put together a survey to learn more about our listeners and make your favorite podcasts even better. This is your chance to tell us what you like and what you don’t and answer questions about our advertising. Go to lockedonpodcast.com/servey to get started. Everyone who completes a survey will be entered for a chance to win one of 10 $100 Amazon gift cards. Again, that’s lockedonpodcast.com/servey. You can also find the link in the show notes. Thank you for helping us out. Most people can’t name all their financial accounts or even what they’re worth, whether it’s 401ks, properties, or investments. 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That’s 50% off your first year at monarchmoney.com with the code locked on NHL. All right, welcome back into this edition of Locked On Capitals, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. The best way that you can help grow the show is to subscribe to Locked on Capitals on YouTube and comment anything down below. In the final segment of today’s show, we’re talking about a quiet guy, all things considered. Matt Roy on the Blue Line, of course, a former king. And uh, you know, all things considered, some good, some bad. I think that he fits into the Capitals long-term plans just based on his contract and ultimately what we saw from him last season. So, let’s dive into the good and well some of the bad as well in the final segment of today’s show. So when the cap signed him to that deal, 6 years, 5.75 million per, that was a big move and a name that was familiar to me, but uh was not one of the mo names that was like a marquee super sexy NHL name. Um because the one thing the Capitals needed was stability on the right side and uh they needed a guy who could play big minutes because you know there are enough blueliners that eat up a lot of minutes. uh John Carlson in particular. So, it’s good um to take some of the burden off uh some of the top D pairing players out there. Um so, how did last year go offensively? I’m going to say pretty solid.35 points per game. Um the best of his career if you got to know. Highest assist rate he’s ever had. And u you know the thing of it is that was even after he missed 13 games. So, there’s definitely some positive uh positivity that surrounds him offensively, but where things aren’t so good is defensively, and that is what should be important since he is a defender. Um, and this is where we talk about GF% and CF%. I know those terms sound like an alphabet soup. So, let’s break it down a little bit here. GF% is goals for percentage. Basically, uh, when you’re on the ice, how many goals does your team score compared to how many you give up? Uh, if you’re on the ice for 10 goals for and 10 goals against, that’s 50%. You want to be above 50%, of course, because that means your team is outscoring the other team when you’re out there. Uh, Matt Royy’s GF percent, I’m not going to sugarcoat it, not good. Below 50. Um, and what does that mean to a granular level? More specifically, that means more goals against than goals for when he was on the ice. Now, CF percent, that’s cory4 percentage. That’s a measure of shot attempts. Every time your team shoots or tries to shoot, that is what they call cory4. Every time the other team does, that’s cory against. So, CF% is basically about possession, you could say. You know, just generally speaking, do you have the puck more than the other team does when you’re out there? Again, you want numbers above 50. Matt Royy’s CF% was the lowest among the six regular defensemen. And you know, that isn’t maybe something that was glaringly apparent um when you watch the games. I mean, at points it was, but when I looked at the numbers, I was a bit surprised. I know that, you know, he’s not necessarily known for his offensive acumen. However, uh he did show, you know, steps forward in that regard, but defensively, I think, um we need to see a more buttoned up uh Matt Roy uh because when Matt Roy Matt Roy was on the ice, the other team had the puck more and well, they scored more. That’s not great, especially for a guy that’s making almost 6 mil a year. Um, but you know, like everything else in life, you know, like, why did you do that? Hey, there’s there’s more to the story. There’s more to the story. I feel like that that’s what Matt Roy would be saying is that there’s contextual information that I think is needed in here. So, some of that is who he played with. Most of the year it was Marty Faravari and the pair was, you know, okay, not terrible, um, not elite, but, you know, just okay. So now the big question is, you know, being that Marty Farravari is a bit of a question mark going into next season um just based on health concerns is do you keep them together or do you mix it up and try with someone else? Because the contract says he’s going to play big minutes. The Caps need him to be more than just okay. Um so that’s a big question. What do you guys think out there? Grade Matt Royy’s off seasonason 1 to 10 and would you keep him with Farravari next season? Uh it is a bit of an interesting question and sometimes you know and that’s what I’m going to do here before the start of camp and all that is kind of just you know take a look at the numbers and some of it is a bit shocking from what I found from some of the players that you thought wow really really good yes but there’s also certain parts that are not so good and uh I guess what I’m going to say is that was was what was apparent for me when I looked at under the hood a bit for Matt Roy is the offensive numbers were a step up But defensively, uh, he has taken some steps back. So, we’re hoping, uh, that next season, uh, he can fix, you know, what was wrong, that he can actually, uh, play some sound defensive minutes. And it will be interesting to see who he ends up getting paired with uh, next season. As you know, there are some questions on the blue line. I guess not a whole lot. I guess the biggest question, of course, is Marty Farravari. U, but in that same breath, does he get paired with Marty? Uh some interesting storylines to follow, that is for sure. All right, I want to thank you once again for joining me on this edition of Locked on Capitals, your only daily podcast covering the Capitals. And I want to thank all of you that listen on the audio side and watch this on YouTube. You are what makes this show successful. When you’re done here, head on over to Locked on NHL as they have you covered five days a week, available wherever you find your podcasts and on YouTube. All right, once again, I want to thank you for joining me on this edition of Locked On Capitals, part of the Locked On podcast network. It is your team every day. My name is Dan Holm and I’ll talk to you again next time.

The Washington Capitals are gearing up for an exciting season with key storylines surrounding Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex Ovechkin, Ryan Leonard, and Matt Roy. Dubois enjoyed a career year in D.C., thriving under Spencer Carbery’s system after struggling in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Ovechkin made history by surpassing Wayne Gretzky’s goal record in unforgettable fashion and now sets his sights on the 900-goal milestone, keeping fans buzzing about what’s next for the Capitals’ captain.

Attention also turns to the future with rookie Ryan Leonard, who is set to showcase his skills at the NHLPA Rookie Showcase. Leonard’s physical style, confidence, and scoring ability could make him a fixture in Washington’s top six sooner rather than later. On the blue line, Matt Roy enters year two under scrutiny after mixed results in his first Capitals season. With his GF% and CF% analytics raising questions about defensive impact, Roy must elevate his game to solidify Washington’s defensive core.

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