NBA Fantasy Basketball | Miami Heat Season Preview 2025-26 | Tyler Herro SZN?
The Miami Heat are next up. Tyler Herro, does he take that bump into a top 30 player this year? Bam. Do his percentages go up around the rim after spreading his game out to the three-point line last year? Is there much going on here at all for the Miami Heat when we’re talking fantasy basketball? Let’s check it out right after this. [Music] [Music] Hello and welcome back to Ball Logic. I am the horse and joining me this afternoon is our man who looks after all the numbers within our Patreon. I’m the editor of all of our articles in there, Eddie Flanders. How you doing, mate? Mate, I am really keen to be here to talk about probably one of the most useless teams of this year, the fantasy wise, but uh still keen to pull them apart anyway and see what’s here. Yeah. So, the Miami Heat, years gone by, they’ve had LeBron, they’ve had DWade, they’ve had Bosch, they’ve had numerous players who have been very fantasy relevant. They’re starting to come into a time in their within their franchise that, you know, they’ve got Hero, who can get hot and cold. They’ve got Bam, who he fell out of favor a little bit last year, especially in the fantasy world, given that he spread his game out to the three-point line. his percentages dropped because of the incoming Kal Wear. Do you see any sort of improvement here with this squad this year before we get stuck into them? As a squad, I still reckon they’re going to be pretty crappy. But as a as individuals out here, I can see some guys that are going to be relevant, but there’s going to be a bucket load of guys here who I’m going to fade very, very happily and let the casuals in my league take them. 100%. So, the Miami Heat last year finished 37 and 45, which was good for 10th. That’s right, 10th in the Eastern Conference, finishing eight games under 500th 500%, sorry. Now, Cleveland just wiped the floor with them in that first round, so it was all done and dusted. And when you talk about the ins and outs of the Miami Heat franchise, you’ve got Duncan Robinson who gets hot and then is not. But then you’re bringing in Norman Pal. There’s a lot of discussion around Norman Pal this year. Yeah, there is. He’s obviously coming over from being a high usage guy over at the Clippers. Um, and I I think there’s opportunities for him here. Um, he was the third highest usage guy on the Clippers. Um, but I reckon coming to Miami, he’s probably going to fall in second. I reckon it’s going to be probably only behind Tyler Herro. Bam’s probably going to keep his usage pretty low, but he is going to rob Wiggins blind of his usage. Looking forward to get stuck into that. Let’s get into our top guns and who we think may have top three round quality seasons here in NBA fantasy. For me, there’s one player and I think it’s time and it’s Tyler Hero. 25th overall last year, 77 games. So, he only missed the five games. Flanders 35 minutes per game at just a tick over 47% from the field. He has been known to just chuck shots from everywhere in the past, but 47% 88% from the line, 24 points per game, five rebounds, five assists, a steal. Is this the year where Tyler Herro becomes very fantasy relevant for us? He’s really got to become relevant to be somebody that we’re actually going to seriously consider here. He doesn’t really destroy you anywhere across his numbers. 2.6 turnovers last year wasn’t ideal. and you know 2 of a block. It’s not the stat you’re really chasing him for. Everything else was was pretty healthy. He was great from the line. Um his biggest notable things he had a bump in usage with Jimmy Butler being traded, their offensive ratings plus four when he’s on the court and his most effective three-point combination on the court was with Bam himself and Kel Wear. Um as we dive into our starters, I think that’s going to help him very much from deep there. So I’m a big fan of him. Do you think he takes that jump into I say top 30, does he fall into the top 24? Could he be second round value here for us in NBA fantasy this year? Or do you still think he’s just outside of that given he’s got Norman Pal who’s coming in? You’ve got Andrew Wiggins who we know just loves to shoot the rock but doesn’t do much else. How do you see this going? Uh I think he’s probably going to be a third round guy for me. Um yeah, I think he’s probably somewhere between, you know, 24 36 and I probably be more back end of that round there. Um elite fourth round value if you can somehow get him to slide to there. But I I don’t see him as a top two round guy, but a third round guy I can see value. Beautiful. That’s our top gun for this tide. Let’s see who we think are ready to rise within the Miami Heat organization. your opportunity. Your opportunity. Now, when I speak of players that are ready to rise, they are either players who we think are ready to rise or have been sort of around that mid area in between your fourth round and your eighth to ninth round. And Bam Ado is probably one for me that I really want to see take some more shots near the rim. I know it’s going to be hard with Khell wear there and we’ll touch on him later, but 48% from the field, which is well under is what he’s been able to do in the past. 76 from the line, taking a bit of a drop there, but still 18 points and almost 10 rebounds per game with 4.3 assists. Defensively, two stocks per game, 1.3 steals and 0.7 blocks. How do you see Bam season going this year now that we’re going to get a fulltime KL Wear in with the starters? I see uh top 30 upside here. There is opportunity for him to become a top gun coming out of this team. So the biggest thing for him was Jimmy Butler was traded and then Khal Wear came in as a starter at pretty well identical times there. He had a usage bump of four of 2%. But his rank at that point was 70. Uh minus rank was 58 last year was 70 prior to that. He was 28 after that in that last period after Jimmy after KL where started with where taking the boards from him. He does get the bump in points which I’m happy to take the bump in points. His boards are still well respectable here. I I’m a big fan of this. He’s his field goal. I’ll take bring the free throws up if he can, but other than that, he ain’t going to punish us. And I like that upside of being top 30 here. I like that call. But let’s talk about the newest inclusion into the Miami organization. That’s Stormman Norman. I was lucky enough to pick him up last year. We had a 20man league and I picked him up at 157th last year. And for the majority of the season, he was really good. but he finished 77th overall, 48% from the field, 80 from the line, but 21.8 points per game, the best of his career. But when we’re talking threes, that’s what he’s best at. Three threes per game, only three rebounds, two assists, one steal per game. So, there’s not really much else going on there. But I want to throw this to you, mate, because he played alongside James Harden who averaged nearly nine assists per game and a more pass heavy offense at the Clippers. We go to Miami and Tyler Herrow is the highest assist man or assist per game man at the Miami Heat and it’s 5.5 assists per game. And we know that he likes to get on his bike when we’re talking ISO basketball and get his points. He scores 24 of them per game. Is he going to get the same amount of looks that he got at the Clippers here at the Heat or do you think that drops off? Yeah, I think he will. I think as much as they as Duncan Robinson’s gone and they’ve got Wiggins in now, I reckon Pal’s going to take that usage from Wiggins and that’s going to be where he keeps his three points. I can still see the points keeping up here. Again, throughout the year they traded Butler out last year. They didn’t really bring in a replacement for him. They still have to find those points from somewhere. And reality is it’s hero, it’s Bam. Kaware doesn’t really put up any points and I don’t reckon they’re going to want to use Wiggins. They’re going to want to use Norman Pal over Wiggins. So I can see Pal keeping 20 plus points here. I can’t I’d love to debate this fact with you because I don’t think that well I think they’re going to get him involved in the offense. I think he’s going to take a bit of a drop this year. You’ve got Kel Wear, you’ve got Bam who are going to start. I think Norman Pal’s still going to come off the bench. He’s going to he’s going to be better than Duncan Robinson, but I don’t think he’s going to start. I think you’ll have DaVon Mitchell, Tyler Herro, and Andrew Wiggins. They’ll be the other starters. We’ll get into your starters later, but when we’re talking Norman Pal, he averaged 41.8% from three last year in 60 games. Pretty pretty good three-point shooter, but he was that spark, wasn’t he? He started for the Clippers. They needed that shooting. Yes, Miami need this needs this shooting as well, but I’m not so sure he runs with the starters this year. I I can’t see a world where he doesn’t. You you bring him in, he has that role to be that third guy and he’s probably he’s probably the third name guy, but he’s probably the second usage guy here. Like Bam’s not really needing that high usage and the other outside guy. Would you rather on on your court put Wiggins or would you rather put on your court Norman Pal? I just can’t see the see the world where the answer is going to be Wiggins. He’s he’s not that guy. He He hangs out in the corner and that’s what he does. That’s pretty true. Yeah. When you’re talking Wiggins, 4.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, a steal per game. So overall wise, he’s probably better on the basketball court than what Norman Pal is when we’re talking statistics wise. But when you’re talking three-pointers made, it might shock you, but it’s only.7 difference. three-pointers made between Norman Pal and Andrew Wiggins. Yeah, it is. But I just I still do not see a world where I think I’ from a ball handling point of view, you don’t have hero as a as a primary ball handler. You’re going to want to be able to use somebody else there. And Wiggins as a ball handler over Pal. I think Pal just ticks far far better boxes that they’re going to want to have on a starting lineup. Again, he’s even if he comes off off the bench, he’s going to come off the bench as a as a 28 30 plus minute guy. He even if he play with the starters, he’s probably going to do more minutes anyway than Wiggins. So, he might be officially six-man, but if he’s a sixman putting up starter minutes, I couldn’t care anyway. That’s right. That’s right. We want to preface this by when we’re saying starter, we’re talking starter level minutes. So, it doesn’t matter whether they’re coming off the pine or whether they’re starting with the starting five. If they’re playing starter minutes, they’re regarded as a starter, aren’t they? Yeah. Exactly. And that’s that’s a big thing. I think even if he’s not the one that’s on there, you know, when they do tip off, I think he’s going to be the guy that is going to have all those minutes and be far on the court far better. But they’ll try they’ll try all this. This is going to be something they heavily debate internally here. There is a lot of other options they run around for sure. Let’s get into the best of the rest. [Music] Now you’ve got some numbers here on KL Wear that may make him quite relevant this year. Yeah. Yeah. Khal Wear is one of those guys that he sits in a weird spot in everybody’s drafts and you don’t know where to take him. Um when he came in as a starter, he was ranked 81st post allstar black post allstar break. He has a current ADP of 107 and he’s one of the best best board and block options. um 68% adjusted rebound chance which is huge for somebody that averaged you know sub 30% as one of the best in the league there. Um he defended incredibly well at the rim. Um and with him and Bam on the court the offensive rebound board chance was only 24% for off the offense. So I think having him there is just elite. They’re going to lock down those boards having a combination of BAM and wear and I think they’re going to want to have make sure that’s secure. Is there anyone else that we can consider for our NBA fantasy sides this year when we’re talking inside the top 150? Andrew Wiggins. He does show flashes from time to time, but his percentages really hurt him. Only 44% from the field, 76 from the line really does hurt him. DaVon Mitchell was pretty good towards the back end of last year. Only missed 10 games, but since crossing from Sacramento, really got a good crack there in Miami. Again though, 47% from the field, only 69% from the line. So, that hurts. But he did average five assists at the back end of last year and does do God’s work on the defensive end. Is there anyone else that we’re looking at or do you think that’s it? Does Nicola Yoic even come into his own again this year? This is going to be the hardest call for every every fantasy owner to make is what are the Heat going to do with their lineup? And they’re going to rotate this and they’re going to try a lot of different options here. And if you’re taking any of Yoic, if you’re taking Mitchell, even taking the risk on KL where uh Wiggins, what do his minutes look like? There is going to be you’re going you could take two of these guys and still miss the guy that’s going to be one that pops off. But one of these guys has a top 100 upside here if they get given the right minutes and the right usage. I think it’s Khal Wear and I think I’m happy to let Wiggins Ingovic and Davon Mitchell go through to the keeper. It’s not my not my option. Beautiful. Let’s talk about starting fives. I’ve already mentioned mine so I think it’ll be DaVon Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins. Bam. And then Kell Wear on the inside. Tell me who your thinking may start for the Miami Heat. I think Hero is probably going to have to be the one that runs the point guard. I think he’s probably the best ball handler they’re going to want to have there. Um, I think looking at their options, it’s probably they’re going to run something different here at the two guard Wiggins, Dave Mitchell, Casper. Does he get a a run coming in as a as a brand new fresh rookie, high draft pick there? That is a good option there and could even be a late draft sleeper or somebody to watch out on the waiverss for. Um, then I think it’s pretty set from there. Pal Bam, Khar, I think Khal Wear as a starter is just amazing there. where he actually helped BAM not only fantasy wise but I think he helped BAM create some better opportunities and I think as a team that options there so that’s that’s where I’m going to go but I reckon I’ll I reckon come game one I reckon they’re going to run Wiggins they run him last year not running this year there you have it ladies and gentlemen that’s the Miami Heat there’s a couple that we are looking at Tyler Hero BO Kell wear for your fantasy sides there Norman Powell even if you think that he’s going to get starter level minutes He will be there and available. I wouldn’t go too early on him though cuz he may burn you and have a little bit less usage than what he did last year. But stay tuned here on the Ball Logic podcast. We have plenty more team previews coming up right here leading into the NBA preseason and then the season itself. Plenty of mock drafts as well to keep you busy at home. So, if you’d like to get involved, send us a DM and we’ll get you involved in those mock drafts so then you can practice what sort of strategy you want to do at home for your NBA fantasy drafts this year. On the horse, this is Flanders. We’re out and we’ll catch you again soon. See you guys.
Miami Heat Fantasy Basketball Preview 2025/26
The Heat are full of questions heading into the new season — and we’re breaking down what it all means for your fantasy draft.
🏀 Topics Covered:
Is Tyler Herro locked in as a Top 40 pick this year?
Can Bam Adebayo correct his FG% and return to his top 30’s value?
Will Norman Powell continue on his hot form from the Clippers last year?
Where does Andrew Wiggins fit with what the Heat are trying to do?
From draft ranges to sleeper upside, we’ve got you covered with everything you need before you hit that draft button.
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