Edmonton Oilers Goaltending Breakdown | Stuart Skinner, League Average & True Goalie Value

Edmonton Oilers Goaltending Breakdown | Stuart Skinner, League Average & True Goalie Value

For better or worse, goalending defines success in the NHL. Today, we’ll break down what an average NHL season looked like last year and how that would have shaped the Oilers 2025 season. [Music] You are Locked On Oilers, your daily podcast on the Edmonton Oilers, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hello and welcome to today’s Thursday edition of Locked On Oilers. I am your host Nick Sars. This upcoming October will be my fourth season as a host on the Lockdown podcast network and I want to thank everyone that is taking the time to make locked on Oilers their first listen of the day. Locked on Oilers is a part of the Locked On podcast network where we’ve got your team covered every day. Today’s edition of Locked On Oilers is brought to you by our friends over at FanDuel. Download the FanDuel app now by visiting fanuel.com and win $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. So, we’re going to continue building out our conversation on goalending that we’ve been having throughout the course of the week. Today’s show, we are going to go deep in the weeds. We are going to look straight up at the numbers. What Skinner did, what an average NHL goalie did, what a slightly above average NHL goalie did, and what a good NHL goalie did. So to start things out, we will talk about what an average NHL season looked like, some key statistics to use. We’ll explain the context and the selection of those statistics and why I think they were important. Our second segment, we will apply what an average NHL season would have done for last year, the 24-25 Edmonton Oilers. And then in our final segment, we will talk about what the value difference is between, say, Steuart Skinner, John Gibson, McKenzie Blackwood, maybe somebody a little higher up on the spectrum. So, to start things out, and I do think it’s important, if you’re not an everydayer and you haven’t heard my spiel, goending is fickle. It is the single most fickle position in all of sports. It is extremely environmentally dependent. We talk a lot about environmental factors when it comes to goalenders and quarterbacks because the greats at those respective positions are expected to be so good that they elevate the cast around them. that they are so good they don’t need an ideal environment. But of course, those are only the best guys at their respective positions. What we talk about a lot here on Locked on Oilers, and one of my recurring themes as I’ve been host of the show, if the Oilers ask Stuart Skinner to be the difference between winning and losing, more often than not, the Oilers are going to lose. Steuart Skinner is not the caliber of goalender who can play above his environment. And we are going to address it very straight up. The Oilers make Skinner’s life very easy. His workload, his the quality of offense he faces. The Oilers don’t ask him to do a whole lot and he still struggles to maintain league average statistics. At least last year, he’s had one very good NHL season and then two pretty mediocre middling ones. So, I think that is important that we talk about context. As you guys know, if you’re an everydayer, you have heard me give a long ranging explanation as to why I think context for athlete performance is so important. But we want to be reasonable here. We don’t ask fish to climb trees. We don’t ask elephants to play the saxophone. When we’re asking a goalie to go out there knowing what their skill set is in a certain environment, there are certain expectations. So, for example, last year on the New York Rangers, Igor Schurkin faced the most shots on goal of any goalie in the league. His save percentage was a little bit lower than his historical average. His goals against average was a bit higher than his typical average. His save percentage was a tick lower. I think it’s 911 last year. His career average about 917. His goal saved above expected, though, and we’ll talk about goal saved above expected and why I think it’s such a useful statistic. was still well within his average range. Even though the Rangers were an absolute mess around him, you know, they had that five and 15 stretch from the beginning of December through the end of January where they were the worst team in all of hockey, but Shurken still gave them reasonable quality of goalending. So, let’s start our Skinner part of this conversation by talking about what an average NHL workload is in comparison to Stuart Skinner. The last year of the 25 most common NHL starters, the average workload was 55.4 starts. Stuart Skinner made 51. Okay, that’s not crazy. Granted, that is on the lower end of guys who started games last year. Skinner checking in at 51. The only guys lower than him that we have on this list, Aiden Hill, somebody who dealt with nagging injuries and isn’t really a Bellcow starter. Darcy Keer, somebody who’s on an elite defensive team and is in was in a pretty good backup sit had a pretty good backup. Wow, I tripped over my words there terribly. Jacob Arststrom, who was very injured. Alexander Gorgv, who the Avalanche gave up on and the Sharks left to die behind one of the worst teams in the NHL, and Sam Ersen, an overmatched young guy on the Flyers who only made 47 starts. But the expectation in today’s NHL, if you are to be classified as a starter is that 55 game mark, your backup, if they need to start more than 25 games, you probably don’t have a great starter. You know, the Hella Bucks, Vaselkis, Sroken, Shurkens, those guys are going to push for 65 starts if they can help it. You know, if they can get their way, they’re going to try and start 60 to 65 games. Even though teams would much prefer that number to be 55 to 60 because that difference in workload is going to come up down the line. That energy fatigue, that accumulation of that work over the course of a season does eventually come to roost in the postseason. And it’s why it’s important to manage your goalie’s workload and to do your best to give them opportunities to rest. Last year, a league average goalie faced 1,56 shots. Steuart Skinner faced 1325. That is a significantly lower rate than a majority of the guys on this list. Granted, shots on goal are a cumulative stats. The more games you played, the more shots on goal you’re going to face. It would be very unlikely for someone like Stuart Skinner, who only started 51 games to face the volume of shots of someone like a Shurken or a Hella. Goals against average 2.72. Skinner 2.81. 0.09 09 does not seem like a lot, but 0.09 times 82. Well, it’s not 82. It’s times his 51 starts. But 0.09, and we’re going to grab our handydandy locked on Oilers calculator here so I can show you guys what it comes out to that I’m not I’m not messing with you. So 09* 51 comes out to 4.59. I don’t know what the glare looks like on on your monitor there, but 4.51. Excuse me. 4.59. Now, 4.59 goals across 51 games. That’s not a lot. Realistically, those four and a half goals could have come in a game could have come in games the Oilers won. So, it wouldn’t have made a difference. But, it is worth mentioning that if they go the other way in some other games, as we’ll talk about more in our second segment, you have a different regular season if you get slightly more consistent goalending. And maybe that changes the tenor of your postseason. When it comes to save percentage 9002 was league average Skinner 896 again 0.06 does not 06 excuse me is even less 0.006 06 across 51 starts is such a significantly small such an insignificantly small number that it’s hard not to get a little crosseyed and thinking what is he talking about and then the last one I wanted to hit on goal saved above expected last year 12.45 four five Skinner head seven. Goal saved above expected is a statistic that measures the quality of a scoring chance a player has. That’s based on historical shot tracking data. The value assigned to an expected goal is based on where goals have been scored from in the past. So Skinner saved seven goals worth of expected goals over the course of a season. The average starter from our list there had 12.45. So five goals again across 51 games. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but you get those five goals in the right games and maybe you’re pushing Vegas for first in the Pacific. And we’re having a different conversation. And again, real quick, I don’t think the Oilers being the two in the Pacific or the one in the Pacific is the difference between them winning and losing the Stanley Cup. But I do think it might change things for them. It might have them playing a different type of hockey. And that is one of the many topics we’re going to get to coming up next on Locked on Oilers. We’re going to do the math and tell you what a league average goalending season would have meant for last year’s Edmonton Oilers. The NFL season kicks off tonight with the Eagles and Cowboys, and FanDuel is making sure you’re ready for kickoff with a can’tmiss offer. Right now, new FanDuel customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use on the FanDuel app. I love using FanDuel because it makes it so easy to get in on the action. Whether it’s before the game starts with live betting or if you want to cook up a game parlay with your friends for a squad ride, FanDuel is quick, easy, and the best way to add a little bit more juice to your football Sunday. So, FanDuel has one question. Are you ready? Download the FanDuel app or visit fanuel.com to get started. One more time, that’s fuel.com to place your first $5 bet for your chance at $300 in bonus bets. Thank you to everyone who is hanging out on this Thursday edition of Locked on Oilers as we are continuing our goalending conversation. And again, I said it before, I’ve said it a million times on this show. The Oilers do not ask Steuart Skinner to be the difference between winning and losing. This would be different if you had a Jussi Soros, a Shistin, Sroken, Vasalefki, Babroski, Ainger. If you had a traditional number one bellcow goalie, the expectations the Oilers would have would be higher. He would be making a lot more money because he’d be making more money. The team in front of him would be significantly less talented, whether that’s two or three guys. that type of der of talent eventually comes to roost. And you can look at this in a few different ways. You can look at the stars in the Hoter extension, Shurkens extension in New York, Vasileki in Tampa Bay, Bob’s big free agent contract in Florida. When you pay for goalending, it starts to become tricky to upgrade along the margins. And the difference between a $7 million goalie and a $9 million goalie is really tricky when we’re bearing out these statistics because we’re talking about one goal every fourth or fifth game. And is that more important than having an extra top nine forward? And I know this is very nebulous. This is very in the weeds. This is very much nerd stuff, moneyball type stuff. But this is the way I think about hockey. I am trying to solve a problem. The Oilers goending was not good enough last year. Well, where was it not good enough in the context of the Oilers, in context of the league at large? Well, the answer is both. And that’s where we’re going to start the next part of this conversation where we’re going to talk about what average goalending. Again, league average goalending last year was 55 starts,500 shots on goal against, 2.72 goals against, a 902 save percentage, and 12.45 goals saved above expected. So Steuart Skinner faced 1,325 shots on goal. He saved 896 of them. An average goalie would have been 902. That comes out to 1195 saves. So to calculate how many goals an league average goalie would have conceded in this environment last year, you would do 1325 minus 1195 and that’s 130 goals against in those games. Skinner conceded 138 goals last season. If you subtract 138 130 from 138, you get eight. Now, eight goals across 51 Skinner starts does not sound significant, but as I’m going to show you here on the calculator, you divide 8 by 51, you get 0.156. So, we’ll round up. We’ll say 0.16. You multiply that 0.16. And you think about it, that’s every 16th game. And because he’s starting, you know, 51 of them, we’re talking about four starts, he’s giving up one fewer goal. Again, that does not sound like a lot. And in the grand scheme of a season where teams score north of 200 goals very often, that is not a significant number, but it becomes important. it becomes part of this conversation when we’re talking about the margins because that’s where the NHL is won and lost on the margins and what that does. It’s also part of how a team plays and not just in like style, scheme, X’s and O’s. It’s the mentality. It’s the approach. When a team doesn’t trust in its goalie, it’s a lot of walking on eggshells out there. It’s guys who start trying to overcompensate, trying to look out for their goalie. You know, I always say it on Locked on Oilers. My everydayers have heard me quote Bill Bich. And look, after Monday’s game against TCU, if you’re tired of me quoting Bellich, I I entirely get it. But do your job is as bars of bars as it gets. And trust me, I know bars. When you are trying to do someone else’s job, when you’re a defenseman overcompensating because you’re worried about having a less than stellar goalie in net, that adds up. And when you have guys start trying to do other guys jobs, that’s where you start crossing streams and start running into issues. And again, we are talking about five goals across 51 starts. Do those five goals all necessarily come in games the Oilers lost? No. Those five goals very easily could have been distributed amongst the games that Steuart Skinner won. But could you get one more goal in a game you lost? Okay. Well, if you’re only two points back of the Kings, maybe you try a little bit harder over those last two weeks to get home ice advantage. And look, we’ve discussed this ad nauseium. The Oilers were very well equipped to beat the Kings without home ice advantage. They were very well equipped to deal with the adversity they faced of going down early in that series of needing to rally back. But the more advantages you have, the better. And look, we This all comes down to environment. This all comes down to what’s happening around you. And the Oilers, again, do not ask that much of Steuart Skinner. They put him in a position where if he makes 25 26 saves a night, the Oilers are going to win a lot of the time. The Oilers don’t concede a lot of shots on goal. That’s really the thing that’s frustrating here. So in that context, the Oilers workload is easy. 1325 shots on goal in 51 starts. It comes out to 25 something shots on goal per game. We’ll round up. We’ll say 26. If Skinner needs to make only 24 saves per game in 51 starts, that’s very doable. 25 saves per game. 24. even 23 with how good the Oilers offense is, they can score three and a half, four goals per night. Now, there is some question about the Oilers efficiency as an offense. Though they play a ton of possession, though they had the puck a ton last year, they scored a little bit less than the year before. They weren’t as efficient in the offensive zone. They were not converting scoring chances at as high of a rate. Some of that is regression from guys like Zack Heyman dealing with injuries. Guys like Zack Heyman, Brian Nent Hopkins struggled as well. I think Conor McDavid dealing with some nagging injuries, missing a couple games for suspension. It all adds up. And again, we are talking about the margins here. We’re talking about four points between the Oilers and Kings determining second and third. And then again, once we start getting into the butterfly effect of this where, well, if they win one more game in February, how does that approach April? Well, we don’t know because they didn’t have that opportunity. We can suppose that if they were close to pushing the Kings at 4-2 or even the Golden Knights for the first spot in the Pacific, maybe they would have been a little bit more aggressive in some of their decisions. Maybe they would have pushed Chips in on their go on getting a better goalie or on another player in addition to the Jake Walman move, which was their real significant one. I know they brought in Trent Frederick, but for the most part, Jake Walman, the one who got the job. Jake Walman is the player that we’re excited about, were excited about, and distilling this all out, putting the math together makes it seem a lot more straight up. Now, if you just wanted to go average, last year, the midpoint of all the goalies we have is 905, which is a little bit above what the overall average was, but that’s because there were multiple players with higher than 902 saves. When you get down there, 905 save is very low. 905 save is extremely low. Goalies who had lower than 905 saves last year, Jordan Bennington, Cara Vamela, Jeremy Swayman, Jussi Sorrowos, Shurken was 9005 exactly. Sam Montenbball was 901, Kevin Lankin in 902, Elvis Mleakin’s 892, Lucas Doto 93, Sergey Babsky 9005, Uko Pekolucin 897. The Oilers are not asking Stuart Skinner to be a world beater here by any stretch. They are not asking him to be Shurkin or Babski. They are telling him do not lose us the game. And narrative-wise, that’s why when the Oilers do lose, it’s very easy to point the finger at Skinner and why I like to do these bigger conversations because it’s more than Skinner. And coming up next on today’s edition of Lockdown Oilers, we’ll talk about the value. I am going to explain the difference between a Skinner goalie, a John Gibson price goalie, and why I think McKenzie Blackwood is a really good example of where the Oilers need to be looking when it comes to trying to upgrade this position. Coming up next. Most people can’t name all their financial accounts or even what they’re worth. Whether it’s 401ks, properties, or investments. And when you don’t have the full picture, you can end up leaving money on the table. That’s why there’s Monarch Money. It’s an all-in-one personal finance tool that brings your entire financial life together in one clean, easy to use interface on your laptop or phone. Monarch is built for people with busy lives. If you put off organizing your finances, Monarch is for you. Monarch does all of the heavy lifting. 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And that’s why and as we’ve discussed a ton this summer, Stan Bowman doesn’t think the difference between John Gibson and Steuart Skinner is that big. And that’s where we’re going to start this conversation comparing John Gibson to Stuart Skinner in this final segment. So, excuse me while I click over to my stats here. Last year, Steuart Skinner made $2.6 million. Last year, John Gibson made 6.4 million. Now, John Gibson injured, only made 28 starts last year. We’re going to assume that if he needed to start closer to 40 games, let’s say 35, his stats probably take a marginal dip. Yes, he’s on a better team. The Oilers don’t ask their goalies to do as much, but we’ll say an increased workload on a veteran older goalie, someone like John Gibson who’s got a lot of miles, who’s got an injury history, he plays slightly worse. So, he had a 911 save percentage last year. Let’s say he only saves 9007 9.907 save percentage last year. That would come out to 124 goals against last year. That’s 14 fewer than Stuart Skinner. That comes out to a quarter a goal per game fewer. And again, that does not sound like a lot, but if you were to do 0.25 times, was we said 35 starts, 8.75 goals, 8.75 goals across 51 games. That is where we start to talk about, okay, that’s the difference between winning lo and losing two or three games. That’s the difference between losing in regulation and losing in overtime. And when you start getting into the next tier up, that opens doors for you both in terms of your mentality as a team and where you are in the standings. And again, the Oilers did a masterful job last year in the postseason taking care of business without home ice advantage throughout the first three rounds of the playoffs. The first round the Oilers had home ice advantage in last year was the Stanley Cup final and that was the series they lost, which is what’s ironic about this. So, I don’t necessarily think the difference between home ice and not having home ice is that big a deal, but I do think it changes some of your mentality as a team, some of your approach as a team. I think if we’re talking about John Gibson in the starters net for 45 starts, Steuart Skinner getting the other 37, I think we’re talking about the Oilers maybe having the ability to push for offense a little bit more. And I do think part of the reason that Chris Knobblock is such a feverish preacher of defense, defensive responsibility, and whole team defense, meaning forwards contributing as well, why Jeff Skinner couldn’t carve out a role for himself is because he understands the workload he can reasonably ask of Steuart Skinner. And look, the Oilers have defended Steuart Skinner a ton over the last two years through these lulls, through this adversity. Whether it was in the Vancouver series two years ago, in the Vegas, LA, and Dallas series this past year, even in the Stanley Cup final, the Oilers have always banged the drum that Stu is fine. Stu is their guy. He’s going to bounce back. He’s so mentally tough. He’s got the resolve. And it’s not a question of resolve. At a certain point, professional sports become a resultsbased business. I come back a lot to a Greg Cressell clip. Greg Cressell works for NFL films. He’s a He’s a pundit. He does tape. He does X’s and O’s. He breaks things down. And couple years ago, not even a couple, probably like 10 at this point. I don’t even remember when EJ Emanuel got drafted by the Bills. He was talking about guys need to deliver at a certain point. You can be a nice guy. You can work really hard. Those are admirable traits. Bankable traits are things that help the team win. And Steuart Skinner is not the worst goalie in the NHL. He’s not. He is not a upper half goalie. We understand that to win the Stanley Cup, you need a certain threshold. You know, it’s like the height requirement on a roller coaster. You can’t get on the ride without reaching that minimum height. You know, whether it’s 4 feet, whether it’s 4 and 1/2, 5t, whatever it is, you know, kids slide through the harnesses, can’t fit in the restraints, whatever. Winning the Stanley Cup, you need to have a certain baseline. And look, the numbers for some of these guys who have won Stanley Cups are nothing special. You know, as part of the the locked NHL 100 project, I started putting together lists tomorrow, I should say, today on locked on Oilers. Hunter Hodies and I are going to do the top 10 goalies as part of the buildup to the NHL 100. I was shocked with how mediocre Sergey Babski statistics, especially in the playoffs are. Look, I understand Bob stints in Philly and Columbus. Those numbers are not incredible when it comes to playoff performance. And even his Florida numbers, he’s like a 910 goalie in the postseason as a Florida Panther. And his best season in the postseason by far was 2023 when they lost in the Stanley Cup final to Vegas. But Bob really doesn’t have the numbers. But if you ask people anecdotally, he’s great. You ask people anecdotally their opinion of Sergey Babski, they’ll say he’s won the FZNA. He’s won two cups. He’s a first ballot hall of famer. Look at the save percentage. Look at the goals saved above expected. They’re fine. They’re not bad. But this is a good player on a great team who isn’t asked to do a lot. You think about the difference between the Panthers the year they lost in the final to Vegas and the pre the pre the next two the last two the years they’ve won the cups. Bob didn’t have to do a whole lot. He just had to play well enough. And that’s the conundrum here because you get a guy who’s just good enough on a great team, it’s enough. You get a guy who’s good enough on a very good team like Edmonton, it’s not good enough. And that is the challenge. How do results carry over from player to player, team to team? The goalie I identified and I wanted to talk about is Mackenzie Blackwood because that’s the type of goalie you’re likely going to need to take a flyer on. We spent yesterday’s show talking about the guys you could realistically pursue and the options were not exciting. It’s guys who don’t have great stats coming off of down years like echo echopukolucanin ukopanin. It’s guys coming off of bad years like Uko Pekalukin. It’s unproven guys like Jacob Dobishev or Devin Levy. It’s career backups like Lauren Bruis or aspiring older guys like Freddy Anderson. None of those guys are particularly exciting. Mackenzie Blackwood when the Avalanche acquired him from the Sharks last year was a straightup reclamation project. This is somebody who burned out with the Devils, who dealt with a nagging injury, played through a nagging injury a couple years ago, never was able to regain his form, was left for dead in San Jose. The Avalanch’s pro personnel department identified something that they liked from him and said, “Okay, we’re going to put him on our team and we’re going to be so good in front of him, he’s not going to have to do a lot.” And the difference between Blackwood who’s making like 5 a.5 million now versus Stuart Skinner who’s making two and a half is a reasonable gap. Mackenzie Blackwood had a 912 save percentage last year. That is.18 better than what Stuart Skinner had. Excuse me.16. Stuart Skinner 892. Stuart Skinner had a 0896 last year. Blackwood 0 912. We’re talking about a pretty significant gap there. And again, 16% does not sound like a huge gap, but over the course of a long season, that accumulates, for example, 1325 shots on goal. If we were to do that 911 save percentage comes out to 118 goals against 118 is 20 goals per game. And 911 is not an elite save percentage. So, just food for thought. You can find guys if you can identify the traits. But that will just about do it for our goalie conversation on today’s edition of Locked on Boilers. If you could be so kind, please subscribe to the show wherever you get your podcast. If you’re listening on Apple or Spotify, please give the show a fivestar review. If you’re over on YouTube, give yourself a round of applause. Thank you to everybody who’s made 2500 subscribers possible. I would not be able to do this show without you. So, thank you to everyone who’s gotten on board in the last year and change since I jumped on. I will talk to you guys tomorrow. Until then, let’s go Oilers.

Goaltending defines success in the NHL, but how much is it really worth across a full season? On today’s episode of Locked On Oilers, host Nick Zararis breaks down the numbers behind goaltending value:

What an average NHL goalie season looked like in 2024-25

How league-average goaltending would have changed the Oilers’ season

The value gap between Stuart Skinner and higher-tier goalies like John Gibson & Mackenzie Blackwood

This deep dive puts goalie performance in context, showing how just a few goals saved across the year can swing standings, playoff matchups, and a team’s mindset.

5:06 Average NHL goalie workload vs Stuart Skinner

12:45 Impact of league-average goaltending on Oilers

23:31 Comparing John Gibson to Stuart Skinner

27:36 Mackenzie Blackwood as potential archetype

Edmonton Oilers Goaltending Breakdown | Stuart Skinner, League Average & True Goalie Value

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