Will the Pistons extend BOTH Jaden Ivey & Jalen Duren? Who should they choose if only one?!

Will the Pistons extend BOTH Jaden Ivey & Jalen Duren? Who should they choose if only one?!

We’ll knock out both Detroit guys. Okay. Here in one. So, we’ve done this previously on the show. Yeah. I I don’t know that like we’re going to spend quite as much time as what we did previously, but Jaden Ivy and Jaylen Duran. Yep. Coming off of seasons where I would say Jaden Ivy was like really starting to turn the corner right around the time that the Pistons were starting to turn the corner and then he gets injured. Yep. And now we’re looking at a situation where I think it’s like a little bit complicated in terms of will he sign an extension or not. Last year averaged 17.6 points, four rebounds, four assists, shooting 464173. Over his three years in the NBA, Bryce it’s like 37 38% off the catch from three, right? So he’s actually like fairly reliable now off the catch. And plus, that’s really what matters now, him being the second option to be able to like play off of Kade Cunningham, who you know is an allNBA guy, catch, get downhill, catch, catch and shoot three, and be able to being able to knock down those catch and shoot threes is really important because it opens up the downhill ability for him. It opens up how athletic he is and how capable he is of getting paint touches and getting into that middle of the court area and then being able to break down the defense as a passer or being able to finish and get to the rim. I think he’s like the guy I’m like most disappointed got hurt last year. Yeah. The more I think about it because he was really really coming on right in that window where the Pistons had started to figure some things out. You look at his last five games, 19.2 points, four rebounds, three assists, 606175. He had been on one it had felt like to me and was really starting to cook and then he ends up getting hurt. So people can point to the fact that, oh my god, they’re a better team without him. Look at the onoff numbers, all this stuff. The the reality is that like Assar Thompson was just getting back right around the time that he got hurt like it to his full strength. That completely changed the team. This team really started to figure out what JB was doing. I mean, look, this is your team. I’m just going to let you I shouldn’t be talking this much. No, you should. I The reality is it was a dumpster fire the year before. Like obviously it was going to take a little bit for a little while for them to figure it out, right? Like that that’s I mean here’s my thing. If you don’t believe in Jay Ivy on the Pistons, that’s fine. I don’t think what the Pistons were the first 30 games of last season and what they were the last 50 games without him is is overwhelming evidence. I will listen to other evidence, right? Like I will listen to the non-Jaden Ivy Kate Cunningham backcourt fans and all of that. I I will listen to you, but I will not subscribe to the 30ame sample, 50game sample. They were better with they were going to be better, right? They they had been awful for four years. That was the third coach in three years. They were coming off a historically bad season. Assar wasn’t playing yet. Like it it was going to take a little bit for that team to like figure out and hit a real stride. I also though, while this is the team I cover consistently, I’ve stolen your phrase with Jay Nivey. Sam, I’m becoming less and less um what’s the word? Uh, I think it’s less and less likely or I feel less and less likely that he signs an extension because I think the delta is too wide. I am more and more convinced completely as an outsider. I have no sources within the organization that Jaylen Duran gets his extension although we’ll talk about him in a second and Jaden Ivy doesn’t because the range of outcomes for who Jay Ivy as a player on this team and the role he fills is pretty vast and the number that matches that it is obviously vast as well. So the other thing I want to bring up here is players like Jade and Ivy in the market have struggled recently. Yep. Scoring guards. They have really really struggled to get a significant amount of money. Cam Thomas is a prime example of this. Cam Thomas and Jaden Ivy are very different players, but you know an example nonetheless of Yeah. You know what this is. Uh you can kind of look through the last two years realistically and you can see that it’s been a bit of a struggle. The big key for me with Jaden Ivy is Jaden Ivy proving that he can defend. Where are you on Jaden Ivy’s defense? Because I think that’s the biggest question here. No, that that to me that’s the undertalked about part of Jaden Ivy fitting with Kate Cunningham. Um, I I’ve I have no concerns in terms of like him being able to play off the ball and and all of the things you outlined being able to knock down, catch and shoot. Like I I don’t think Jaden Ivy is a primary on ball guy. Maybe in second units and all of that, but really it comes down to the defensive end. Cuz if you ask me what is the ideal backcourt mate with Kate Cunningham, it’s somebody that’s a better defender than what Jaden Ivy has been so far in his career. And the worrisome thing, if I want to play the negative side, is Jay Ivy has always had the athletic pools to be a good defender going back to his time at Purdue and has kind of struggled with all of the same things going back to his time at Purdue. And so I am fascinated to see if in year two of JB Bicker staff, year four for Jaden Ivy, if we see the necessary growth on the defensive end. He doesn’t he will never be the best play defensive player on this team. He won’t be the second best defensive player on this team. He may not even be the third if Ron Holland comes around, but he can’t be a negative. And I think he probably needs to be a little bit better than neutral along with continuing the strides we’ve seen offensively in terms of the catch and shoot and those type of things. Yep, I think that’s right. Uh, okay. You think no extension? I don’t think he gets an extension. That That’s where I’ve kind of resigned myself to. If you had to number it, what would your number be? I think if he gets one, it’s a low number that Detroit offers him that’s under a hundred million or some sort of shorter term deal in the ilk of what Jaylen Green got. Mine was either $4.96. Okay. Or 3 like 70ish. Sure. Yeah. like some something like that. Yeah. Uh do you do player option? Do you do like team option on some of these? Like this is where like that negotiation gets so complicated because again he just missed time and what was the most critical stretch of really his career at this like of the Pistons during his career at this point. Missing that time really matters. Yes. And I’m not totally sure what to do with it yet. Yep. I think there’s a chance that he I I’m gonna say like I think that they they would probably I I think everybody here would probably like to do one, but again like there’s a chance that this deal looks like a total steal. If it’s like 495 or something, there’s a chance that it looks like, you know, what are you doing paying 496 for a sixth man? Yep. You know, that would be like for for equivalency for people, right? That would be like the equivalent to the Malik Monk deal. Basically, Malik Monk is at like 18 million a year right now. Given the way that the salary cap is going to rise over the next few years, Jaden Ivy at that number, you know, let’s call it like I think it’s like 15% of the cap or something would be like pretty equivalent to what Malik Monk makes now. And that’s why changed my opinion on this Sam is because my impression this off season is that Malik Monk is not viewed in a I mean I think he’s viewed as a positive player but including his contract is not viewed as positively of what I would have guessed for a sixman of the year type player. And so even if Jay Ivy is a sixman of the year type player, even if that’s the the floor, he’s like even the number you brought up is not going to be used in a positive viewed as a positive fashion. So I just I I just don’t think I don’t think he gets the number that makes it worth it. I think the only way this gets done is if he takes a number that’s like essentially looks like sixman money and he just takes it. Yeah. I mean, Bryce, the thing is on this stuff, man, it’s hard. Like, if he got like a 495 offer, like if they were like, “All right, we’re comfortable with this number because we think there’s still upside in this thing, man. 95 million is just so much money to turn down.” Yeah. Like that’s the thing. Like, especially for somebody who like is just coming off injury and like you don’t know what it’s going to be. Like it’s just maybe it’s like 490. Like even at 90, that’s the thing. Like so that that’s my like if you start to get like less than 90 where you’re getting into like $22 million a year. I mean like I I’m all about that if I’m the Pistons. I just I I just wonder like I I I don’t know what JI wants, but it it like you said it is a lot of money. I just I think this is this one is is a little complex. Yeah. Still just 23 years old. Uh worth bringing up as well. Uh Jaylen Duran is the other one. Jaylen Duran just kind of is what he is to me. Yes. Uh but in some respects he isn’t either because last year I have I have hammered Jay Jaylen Duran for his defense for a while. It has driven me crazy. I know that you’ve hammered him for his defense for a while. He’s just not active enough. He’s sometimes not engaged enough around the rim. He’s definitely never been engaged enough at ball screen level and everything. But the last three months of the year, do you want to call it? Sure. Something like that, Bryce. Like three to four. I think when I say it, I say the last third of the season plus the playoffs. Yeah. We really started to see growth defensively from Duran in a way that like completely changes the value equation from I would not want to pay Jaylen Duran. uh like you know going into February last year I was like I probably just wouldn’t pay him to okay like maybe you do pay him. He very clearly has really good chemistry with Kate Cunningham and ball screens rolling to the rim. I still just wouldn’t want to go nuts on this deal though and I wonder if like given his production level he will want a big contract. Th this one’s also quite complicated to me. So my thing with this I I think this one is easier in the sense that we do know who Jaylen Duran is. I don’t think the delta on his outcomes is as wide. It’s just like how do you value that? And that’s what’s tough whenever you you know we’ve talked about this again. This is going to carry over into guys like Mark Williams and Walker Kesler is like where does he land cuz the center market is interesting you know like I looked at 2728 cap hit. So a couple years from now Jared Allen’s going to be at 30 million. Miles Turner’s at 28. Zoo Hawks though is at 21. Nas Reed, who right now is penciled in as a backup, is at 25. Gaffford is at 18. You know, so like where where does Duran fit on that list? And then how do you value that in terms of the contract you want to offer him? Is Duran better than any of those players right right now? Like literally right now as we talk, is he better than any of those players? Uh, I mean, as a true center, I would take him over Nas Reed. Just like as a true center, like I I have questions about like Nas Reed playing major minutes as your starting center. For for what it’s worth, I would take Jaylen Duran over Nas Reed right now as well, especially in that role. Um, I mean, I think Daniel Gaffford’s pretty good and like that’s actually a really interesting one. I mean, the the one I can’t ever get over is like Zubots, right? like how I like he broke the market in a big way signing that lower deal which uh you know well the the Clippers are in the middle of their own thing right now. We’ll see where that goes. You say um so like it’s really hard I guess is where I’m at with Duran. I would not want to go to 25 million for Jaylen Durren. But if I’m Jaylen Duran, over the last two years, I’ve averaged 13 points, 11 rebounds, two and a half assists, shooting 65% from the field. I’m probably thinking I am worth the Jared Allen deal, like the Jared Allen like 5125 that he signed or whatever it was coming off of his rookie deal, right? And I probably want a bit of a bonus for uh a bit of a you know number on top of that because of the cap rising. And I’m just not doing that. Like I I don’t I I would almost prefer to sign Jaylen Duran to like a three-year deal. I would be willing to give him like the money. It would just need to be on a three-year deal then. So give him like three for 75. Yeah, something like that. four for 100 with the team option. Uh yeah, sure. If I if I’m getting the team option, but like there’s no way if I’m Jaylen Durren, I’m giving it. Yeah, Dur’s not signing that. I’ve talked myself into that he’s going to get like essentially like I know they’re like complete polar like but he’s going to get 100 million or something. I man that’s crazy. I just I know but I just I feel like the conversation around the chemistry with Cade and the defensive growth I just wonder if and I will say this they run more offense than probably what people realize through Jaylen Duran in terms of like throwing him the ball at the top of the key and then they’re running actions both sides and DHOs and stuff like that. So it it just it is um Yeah. So like what another comp here is like Nick Claxton, but like Claxton signed his deal, his 400, 497, whatever it is, after his fourth season, not after like his third season, right? like he signed that after his fourth season when he was coming off of like defensive player of the year voting and averaged like 13 and nine and shot 70% from the field. Like it was just like a different deal. You know what? It was a totally different deal for him. So like even then that’s hard. Like like I was trying to decide like is Jakob Purle like kind of a comp? Like but Purle like didn’t do anything his first four years. like he was just like a good, you know, solid rotation player those first four years in the NBA. Like it is it’s hard. The problem for the Pistons here, I think, is that it’s hard to find players that were as productive as Jaylen Duran as young as Jaylen Duran was. Yeah. Like if if I’m Jaylen Duran, I might like be looking at Andre Drummond as a comp and like Drummond made the All-Star game in his fourth year. Like you look at Drummond’s first two year or Drummond’s second and third year, 13.7 points, 13 rebounds, you know, shot 56% from the field, you know, wasn’t nearly as good of a passer. Like that might be who I’m looking at as a comp. And again, like I I I think that Andre Drummond would make drastically less in today’s NBA than, you know, what he did then. But that that’s what makes this so hard and makes this so challenging, I think, is that we’re in the middle of like shifting paradigms in terms of what we care about for NBA big men particularly, and we’re starting to get better at evaluating defense. And you know, like then there’s the whole thing that you and I talk about all the time with Assar Thompson where Assar and Jaylen Duran really tend to like operate in the same areas. And even though I agree with you that Jaylen Duran’s gotten way better at playing out high and you know catching the ball at the top of the key and then running DHO’s and hitting back cutters and everything, he also tends to like operate in the dunker spot and like roll to the dunker spot and then you have a Sar Thompson like cutting into that area and then you know doesn’t read it quite as quickly as a SAR does and then you have like you know them cutting to the same area and then Duran goes oh I have to flash to the like foul line right and the timing looks all off and it looks clunky and I think I agree with you. I think they’re going to give him money. I just don’t know. I don’t know what the number is that I’d be comfortable with. I would guess that the number I’d be comfortable with is lower than what Jaylen Duran wants. I think that’s right. I think it’s probably lower than what the Pistons are going to offer him. And it’s an important point. I I brought it up all the way back, you know, a couple months ago. The first time that was ever brought up on this podcast or my Pistons podcast was you are going to invest in Assar Thompson long term uh based on you know what you know right now. Do you believe those two guys like you if you’re investing in Jaylen Duran this off season you’re essentially locking in four or five years of two absolute nonf flooror spacers in your starting lineup. not bad shooters, not poor shooters, absolute nog gravity, non floor spacers in your starting lineup. And I just I I I don’t know is is that right, is that wrong? Whatever. I just know that it has to be a factor. If you think you can it can work, great. My thing with it is I think when those two are on the floor together, one has to be in the action. Whenever they were playing the Knicks and they were trying to always pull Jaylen Brunson into the action with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Assaar and Duran were playing both off the ball. One of them wasn’t in the ball screen, wasn’t one of them wasn’t operating the ball. They were always in the same area like you just talked about. So, I I do think it’s an important factor for the organization to ask themselves of do we think this can work together with those two long term. And just to be clear for people, so just what the Pistons salary cap situation is with this, right? These two guys have a combined cap hit of like 50 million uh with their cap holds, right? Yeah. So, they’re not they can get some space like they can get some cap space like they could decline the Marcus Sasser fourthyear option. They could, you know, get rid of the Duncan Robinson deal which I think is only a couple million guaranteed and they can be at like 10 million of space like something in that ballpark. It’s not a crazy number. But if they could in theory get Jaden Ivy’s number lower by signing him to an extension like if he would be willing to take like 22, they actually could get to a like spot where they have like maybe 18 million or you know 17 or 16 million or something like that in cap space if they wanted to. So it it’s that’s also like kind of a shifting paradigm which makes me wonder if again like is is Ivy maybe the guy that makes more sense to extend because you shift the cap hit lower and it gives you a little bit more flexibility next summer. I I I don’t know. I again it’s very dependent on what Jaden Ivy’s willing to accept I think. Yeah. But with Duran, the number for me would be like I wouldn’t want to go over like 20 to 22. And I think he’s gonna want more than that. Yep. Yep. I agree. Maybe in a three-year deal, I would be willing to go like 25, but I’d want it to be three. I I wouldn’t want to go four. I will just say this, and we can put a bow on the Pistons part of this. I’m terrified for Detroit to end up in the Orlando situation, but without like even something close to the number two option that is Fron Vagner. You know what I mean? Like they lock in Jaden Ivy, Jaylen Duran, Assar Thompson to all of this money and then they don’t even have a number two or true number three scoring option and then you’re trying to get off money and make swing a huge trade and and all of that. Like that is that is my biggest worry for I’m not saying tra I’m not worried that Tan Langden will make the wrong decisions. Like that’s my biggest worry for Trajan Lang. I think that’s the biggest piece of the puzzle he has to figure out. Yeah. And look, they’re not as good as Orlando, you know, was in my opinion and is right. They have Cade and I think I would take Cade over anybody on those two teams, but at the same token, they don’t really have the Fron yet, right? Um, I don’t really think they have the bane yet to be honest. So, like I don’t really want to go full in yet and like be completely locked into my roster either. Yeah. I mean, that’s what I’ve wondered is like like with Jaden Ivy, do you just let it play out and then if he’s not going to be that guy, you trade him at the deadline? Cuz I I would be ready to make a big move at the deadline if I’m Detroit and I’m not seeing it from him. Or if he is that guy, then you just like walk into next off seasonason and just say, “Hey, we’re going to pay you.” like you you averaged 20 a game this year, you improved defensively. Here’s number two option money. Um you you know like you hurt your chances of giving him on a you know a team friendly deal, but I don’t know. I’ve I’ve workshopped that as well.

Will the Pistons extend BOTH Jaden Ivey & Jalen Duren? Who should they choose if only one?!

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Sam Vecenie, a Senior NBA Writer at The Athletic, talks all about basketball. From the NBA, to the NBA Draft, to college hoops and even some high school, Vecenie has you covered in this show.