The dude has really come a long way. So glad to witness his trajectory.
Our best arm
Nails
Huge
AI run scored probability query: With bases loaded and no outs, a baseball team is expected to score at least one run about 85% of the time, and the average number of runs scored is roughly 2.3 runs. While it’s the highest-leverage situation for scoring, there’s still about a 15% chance the offense will fail to score at all, and a smaller percentage of the time they might even score four or more runs.
Breakdown of Scoring Probabilities
Using run expectancy (RE) data, which analyzes how many runs are expected for each base/out situation, the average runs and scoring probabilities are as follows:
0 Runs: ~15% chance
1 Run: ~27% chance
2 Runs: ~20% chance
3 Runs: ~14% chance
4+ Runs: ~13% chance (total of 4 runs
![[Highlight] Adrian Morejón's 2Ks in the 6th...getting out of a bases loaded, no outs jam.](https://www.rawchili.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/dmk2YzFuMXU4bHFmMTHpmJd9a8mfWd6vxTtdxbJuNE5_l_IpFoSEDvZJLwQU-1920x1024.png)
5 comments
The dude has really come a long way. So glad to witness his trajectory.
Our best arm
Nails
Huge
AI run scored probability query: With bases loaded and no outs, a baseball team is expected to score at least one run about 85% of the time, and the average number of runs scored is roughly 2.3 runs. While it’s the highest-leverage situation for scoring, there’s still about a 15% chance the offense will fail to score at all, and a smaller percentage of the time they might even score four or more runs.
Breakdown of Scoring Probabilities
Using run expectancy (RE) data, which analyzes how many runs are expected for each base/out situation, the average runs and scoring probabilities are as follows:
0 Runs: ~15% chance
1 Run: ~27% chance
2 Runs: ~20% chance
3 Runs: ~14% chance
4+ Runs: ~13% chance (total of 4 runs