The Athletic Predicts 73-Point Season For San Jose Sharks | Too Optimistic or Spot On?

The Athletic Predicts 73-Point Season For San Jose Sharks | Too Optimistic or Spot On?

[Music] The Sharks have a 9% chance of making the playoffs. 9%? You’re saying there’s a chance? You’re Locked On Sharks, your daily podcast on the San Jose Sharks, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. Hello, welcome to Locked On Sharks, the premier hockey podcast covering your favorite team in the Bay Area. My name is JD Young, caretaker at the Reef, also the co-host of Locked On NHL. Want to thank you for making Locked on Sharks your first listen. Proudly part of the Locked on Network. We cover your team every day. And if you want to be an everyday, all you have to do just follow along wherever you get podcast and of course you can watch on YouTube as well. And today we’re going to be uh discussing the Sharks uh roster as it’s been trimmed down. Uh the Sharks have sent some players back to juniors, some players to the Barracuda, so we’ll get caught up on that where the Sharks roster kind of sits right now. Uh plus we have two uh we’re starting to get the season previews out now from big time publications. So, we’re going to be looking at the Athletics Sharks preview and what they think of the San Jose Sharks this season. Uh then we’ll see the daily face off and our good friend Stephen Ellis look at his season preview of the San Jose Sharks and what he thinks San Jose is going to do this year. So um before though we get to all that um do want to take a moment um and just thoughts to to Mike Greer who uh unfortunately his father passed away um I guess it was over the weekend or they announced it Monday morning. um just you know thinking about him and what he’s going through in his family and stuff and uh can only imagine uh you know losing a parent especially a parent like him you know and he’s talked about like how big of a role his dad had you know both Mike and Chris Greer and kind of where they are at um in their professional careers and a guy who you know was a you know worked in the Patriots organization and kind of helped to to groom both of his sons to you know eventually become professional you know, become general managers of of sports teams. And um, you know, just again want to, you know, just just thinking about Mike. I know I’m 100% guarantee Mike is not listening to this podcast, but uh, the poor Sharks intern that has to listen to this podcast and pass off uh, dumb notes that I make to Mike Greer. Um, just send that along. I hope I, you know, just thinking about him. So, um, we will awkwardly now transition to, uh, transi, uh, transactions as these Sharks made some cuts. So, we’ll go through kind of list and we’ll talk about kind of where these guys are going to be this season and kind of the expectations, all that fun stuff for for these guys. So, um, you know, so the Sharks again, they made seven cuts. Uh, so the forwards, they sent Max Heis and Teddy Mertin. Both these guys are from the of course the 2025 draft. Uh sent them back to their perspect their their respective junior teams. Defenseman Jack Bar, John Gormley, and Art Guryv. Jack Bar who is on a PTO. Um so he is actually now both uh actually all three of these players are now with the Barracuda. Bar still on a try out basis here as he’s trying to make uh the San Jose Barracuda. But um so and then goenders Joshua Ravensburgen and Christian Kersh. Uh so of course Ravensburg in the first round pick from this year. Kers who was picked in the 2024 draft. Both those guys will be going back to juniors. So the Sharks are now at 56 players total. Um Heist is going to be going to Prince Albert. Uh he’s going to be spending a year at Prince Albert and then in the WHL and then he’s going uh to NCAA. believe if I I believe it’s it’s uh Michigan State. I’m pulling it up right now, but uh I’m fairly certain he’s uh he’s headed to Michigan State. Um so he is, you know, kind of an overager guy. Uh he should hopefully, yes, it is Michigan State. So hopefully for him, right, he can kind of step into in the WHL with Prince Albert. Uh of course, like Aussie Weiss played for Prince Albert uh back in the day. So hopefully you can kind of step in and earn a big role with them. Um and as their season has already gotten underway here in the WHL, hopefully you can kind of step in and and kind of hit the ground running for them. Uh Teddy Merchin, uh he is going another guy who’s kind of going the actually the same route here. Um he’s going to the Q uh to play at the Montown Wildcats this year. uh and then he’ll be off to Boston College um next year uh to play in the NCAA. So um you know both these players I I think have a chance es uh to really kind of light the lamp and put up a bunch of points here uh in their respective junior league. So um like I said with all the defenseman Bar Gormley and Gurv all these guys are going to competing for uh spots in the Barracuda. Um, if not, they could be spending some time if you know a guy like Jack Bar who does want to potentially sign an AHL deal uh could be spending some time in the ECL. We know Girv um spent all of last year in the ECL and Gormley I think got a little bit of run and he got a little bit of taste last year with with the Barracuda. Uh but could be one of those guys who maybe spends a little bit of time in the ECL and then as call-ups happen for the Barracuda to the Sharks, he could be a guy who potentially gets called up. Uh, you know, look at a guy like Braden Hashe last year, right? Kind of started um in the ECL and then worked his way in and had a really, you know, positive second half with the with the Sharks or with the Barracuda, sorry, excuse me. Um, Ravensburg and Kersh. So, um, Kersh is again another one of those players. He’s using that OHL or using that CHL before heading off to college. Uh, so Christian Kersh is going to be playing with the Kitchener Rangers. um in the OHL this year and um I think he’s going to have a chance to to play some meaningful games with them um as well. he, you know, um, didn’t have a great year in the US and and kind of played in the NAHL, which is kind of the league below the USHL last year, but, um, you know, I think for him kind of hopefully getting some run here in the OHL, where be should be a pretty good Ker like Ker is always a kind of a good team. So hopefully he can kind of get some run and kind of regain his confidence before heading to uh, University of Massachusetts in 2627. And then Ravensburgen will be heading back to Prince George where he’s going to be like the number one goalender for them. Of course, like we we know how important uh he is for them. So, um I’m a little surprised he got sent home early like this early. Maybe Prince George is also like we want our dude back. Um but I thought maybe he might get a taste of of some preseason NHL games here. Uh, but I guess the Sharks feel pretty comfortable with the five goalies that they still have on the roster right now. So, of course, they have uh Ascarov, uh, they have Nadulkovich, they have Jacob Scarik, uh, Gabriel Kerier, and then, um, Matt Davis, who is on an AHL only deal right now. So, that’s that’s kind of where they’re at with that, um, at least among the goalies. So, Sharks still have 34 uh forwards on the roster and 17 uh defenseman uh and five goalies. So, they have to get down to 23 eventually. We’ll see we’ll see it kind of start to dwindle down here. Uh, I wouldn’t be surprised if kind of after this upcoming weekend where the Sharks have a game on Friday, then a game on Monday, if we start to kind of see some big time cuts as they start to fill out this Barracuda roster and we start to see a lot of those guys kind of get down and and the Sharks roster kind of gets a little bit uh leaner here as you start to kind of get guys who are uh in real consideration for, you know, being on on the the roster on the Sharks uh you know, this season. Plus, you know, you do have a couple of the kind of junior guys still on the roster. Um, you know, like a guy like Carson Wetch who’s going to, you know, go going back to um, you know, going back to the WHL. Um, and then, um, you know, Hi Wong is also going to be a guy going back to the OHL here. So, you do have a couple of these junior guys who are still hanging around right now. Um, probably want to give them a little bit more seasoning before heading back. Um, you know, especially I think a guy like WC who’s the Sharks are, you know, like they’re gonna have to make a decision on if they want to sign him next summer, which I assume they’re going to want to sign him, but you know, kind of give him a little bit more time here. Kind of give him some what they want to see him continue to work on um as he heads back to the WHL. And the same thing with uh Hi Wong where they they probably want to, you know, give him a little bit more instruction. We know this is a guy that that’s going to take some more time to develop. So having him in house a little bit longer makes a ton of sense. Uh you know and then that way when he goes back to the OHL he’ll be you know kind of given a little bit more homework to to kind of work on here. So, um, but yeah, I mean, you know, we’re going to start to see continue to see some of these cuts and stuff as the Sharks, again, just little little cuts here, but I, like I said, I I think, uh, we’ll probably start to kind of see a big transition of guys getting to the Barracuda roster here sooner rather than later. Um, especially, like I said, I think after this weekend when you start to kind of get a couple games here, that way the Barracuda guys can start prepping for their season. uh especially all those AHL guys like kind of start getting like those guys are on AHL deals. Um you know your Vanro boys, your Anthony Vincent, guys like that. Um and then start kind of gearing up for the the Barracuda season. So um we’re going to look at the athletic preview which uh shockingly gives the Sharks a 9% chance to make the playoffs. Um, so we’re going to discuss their preview, what they think of San Jose this year, um, kind of some of their big questions around the roster. So, we’ll get to that in just one second. The NFL season is here and FanDuel’s making sure you’re ready for kickoff. They can’t miss offer. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. If your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Uh the great thing about FanDuel is it fits however you like to play. Uh they have player props. So maybe you have uh I don’t know, maybe you had uh Thornton going off for the Chiefs on Sunday night, you’re probably feeling pretty good about that. Uh if you want to build a same game parlay. So if you think a bunch of different things are going to happen in a game or even jumping in to live action as it unfolds, if you had the Eagles to come back and win against the Rams, uh you probably had yourself a pretty good Monday. So, uh, it’s quick, easy, and the best way to add a little bit more energy to Sundays. So, if you’re ready to play, download the FanDuel app now by visiting fanduel.com to get started. That’s fanduel.com to place your first $5 bet. All right, guys. Before we continue, do of course want to thank you for making Locked on Sharks your first listen. Again, proudly part of the locked on network. Uh if you haven’t yet, perfect time to subscribe. Uh preseason actions here. Uh we got training camp going on. Uh we have preseason games this weekend. Like plenty of stuff. Season’s right around the corner. And this is going to be uh I think one of the most fun seasons we’ve had in San Jose, probably since 2018, 2019 to be honest. So uh make sure you guys are following along wherever you get podcast. And of course you can watch on YouTube as well. All right. Um, the Athletics. So, they they started doing their team previews, right? Uh, where they think every team is going to finish and like spoiler, they have the Sharks as one of the worst teams in the NHL. They g they have them currently ranked 31st, which I think it’s it’s fair. It’s fair. I maybe I’m wearing teal colored glasses, but I think they’re going to be a little bit higher than 31st. I I have some teams I’m circling um that are ahead of them, but they so they kind of picture the Sharks to or I’ll pull it up here if you watch on YouTube. If not, I will uh describe it. So, they picture they’re projecting the Sharks to have a 73.2 point season this year. Uh just a reminder, the Sharks uh finished last year with 52 points. They actually wrote a really great thing here about how San Jose is the first team in a bajillion years to have uh less than aundred points in two seasons combined. Hopefully this year uh we we can uh get over you know not hit 100 points but get over you know uh stop this uh 50 point season uh or sub 50 point season. So, um they uh kind of where the the bell curve of the sharks and kind of where their their most of their kind of points are. Um 17% chance that they have like 75 points, six uh% chance they have like in the 60 or 70 point range and then 14% chance that they’re in like the 80 point range and then it kind of you know as a bell curve works uh uh you know like there’s like a 1% chance they have like 100 points or something like that. They also 37% chance that they are the eighth team in the division, 24% chance in this as the seventh team. Um 17% chance is the sixth and you know further further. Uh but they the where they kind of have them ranking you in among the bottom which I think is the more important part right is they give them a 15% chance to be the last place team 53rd% 53% chance that that they’ll be the bottom five and a 79% chance that they’ll be in the bottom 10 which again I I feel that’s very fair for those you know I I don’t think this is going to be the worst team in the NHL this year as I’ve stated many many times uh throughout the summer but they do give them a 9% chance to make the playoffs, which I felt was uh extremely high for again a team that has not put up 100 total points over the past two seasons. Um but they their kind of reasoning and justification for it is well um they have there’s so much potential like kind of growth uh with this roster and especially among the young players right um they they kind of put the best case scenario for this team is like an 86 point uh where CBrini is just like a monster becomes a superstar um you know Will Smith continues his growth both Ascrov’s the real deal and then Misa and Dickson just kind of hit the ground running like um and if all those things happen like there’s a realistic chance that this team could you know crack that 85 point mark and and kind of be in contention to make the playoffs. They also said like the worst case scenario is this team’s like a 60point uh team which is you know and just the kids don’t progress and that I think that would be like absolute horrible case scenario right is if yes you’re in in line to get the first overall pick but all the picks that you’ve already drafted in Celibbrini and Smith and Ekan and Ascarov who you traded for and you know Dickinson Misa none of these guys really kind of take that next step or take that first step for some of these guys like that that’s a really tough case scenario for San Jose because again like you it’s nice to have the best prospect pool in in the entire league. But if these prospects don’t turn into anything then what does it really mean, right? And I I I feel like Celbrini’s as close to as a lock as you’re going to get here at this point. Um but it would be really disappointing if like he takes a big step back and Will Smith kind of doesn’t continue his progression and like I said so um but overall though for for the athletic like you know you you feel like they their kind of big thing is you know you’ll be hardressed to find a team project to be so bad so interesting and so well set for the future. That though is the majesty of the San Jose Sharks. Even with the big pieces progress, the points totals could still be ugly and it doesn’t really matter uh to be honest. So, uh I mean we we kind of know where the weaknesses on this team are, right? It’s going to be the blue line as much as Mike Greer, you know, kind of try to patchwork it together with some veterans and um you know, like the Clingbergs and the letties and and the Oravs here to try to just add some some NHL veteran presence to guy and guys who are still relatively like, you know, good players at at this point. Um, but like you know their big thing that they they kind of discuss in here is if the defense just is not able to find any sort of uh ground or and you kind of leaving Adelkovic out to drive. Um it’s doesn’t matter how good the forwards are, right? and like the the Sharks who do have right so many fun forwards that we talked about and even veterans like Wenberg and Jafoy and Skinner who going to be nice and important pieces to help insulate them. um if the blue line is as as terrible as it possibly could be like it’s not going to really matter that maybe the structures get into a bunch of like five to four type of games which would be really fun like especially after you know what we’ve seen from the offense over the past couple seasons and maybe they just try to kind of outscore their problems this year. Um but that that’s a a definitely a possibility. So um yeah but like they I I think they were pretty favorable. um you know like uh the so the people working on it was uh Sean Gentile uh Shaina Goldman and Dom um you know kind of all so very very analytics heavy but um I I thought kind of I’ll say very fair for for the Sharks for at least with their season preview. So um our good friend Stephen Ellis though we’re going to talk about here in a little bit. Um spoiler not as uh not as nice. So, we’re going to one, we’re going to be nice to our friend Stephen. Uh, but two, we’ll dig into what uh what Stephen kind of said about San Jose um this season and why uh maybe not expect a a massive jump in points um especially kind of compared to what the Athletic has. So, we’ll get to that here in just one second. Most people can’t name all their financial accounts or even what they’re worth, whether it’s 401ks, properties, or investments. And when you don’t have a full picture, you can end up leaving money on the table. 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Use code locked on NHL at monarchmoney.com in your browser for half off your first year. That’s 50% off your first year at monarchmoney.com with code locked on NHL. All right, before we finish up, do of course want to thank you for making Locked on Sharks your first listen. For your second listen, check out the Locked On NHL podcast. Uh, we’re bringing you daily leaguewide stories that matter the most with local coverage you love from Locked On. Find Locked On YouTube, wherever you listen to podcast. All right. Uh, good friend Stephen Ellis, uh, who’s of course been on the show multiple times. Uh, love talking with him about prospects, all that fun stuff. Um, not as nice when it came to the Sharks uh, preview this year. So, um, he though I think was a little bit more conservative with, uh, the lineup, uh, where he has like Godette playing in the top five or in the top six. Um, he still has Smith at the the winger, so he might have wrote this a little bit before um, kind of the Misa news, right? Doesn’t have like, you know, doesn’t really have u Dickinson and Misa kind of really in the mix as much. I think uh that’s why maybe he’s a little bit kind of lower um than than the some other people. So, uh, but you know, he he talks about like in his thing, right, where of course the offense is just terrible because they were dead last and or mostly dead last and everything, but um, you know, did speak about very positive about our our our Swedish uh, Prince William and then talked of course with Celebrinia Smith and how Smith is going to have a bigger impact this season and um, even wrote about recently about how he thinks Smith’s going to be a massive breakout out candidate um for San Jose this year. So like you know don’t get on Stephen he’s just doing his job here. Um and I I I think now that we have the potential of Will Smith on wing with Celebrini this year like I don’t feel like the breakout is is like it feels certainish. I don’t you know again not a lot but you feel more confident in that potential Will Smith breakout and again like a potential 60 to 70 point season from Will Smith if he plays the way he did the second half of the season like that feels that feels really really I don’t again not a lock but Will Smith could be having a a nice nice uh start to the nice season this year. Um, so, uh, defense again, he kind of he talks about, you know, right, you you go from Vastic and Thrron to Ruda, uh, to bringing in Letty Clingberg and and, etc., etc. Um, but he’s like it’s just it’s so the defense has been so bad the past couple years where um, if any of these guys are like just halfway decent, it does feel like it’s going to be a uh, a big jump for for San Jose this year. So, um, but he also didn’t talk about he spends a lot of time talking about the goalending as well with Ascrov where he expects, you know, he kind of expects Ascrov to be the guy. Um, and he thinks Noddelovich can, you know, he did play he he mentions how Delkovich can play a little streaky. I think, uh, he also is on the same thing that I am where I think the Sharks are going to be looking for another a third goalie. uh they should be looking for a third goalie especially with Jacob Shakarak and his you know two NHL games that he’s played just in case uh if Ascrov or Nadal Kovichic have to miss an extended period of time but he’s very of course Stephen Hell is bread and butter is you know with the the prospects um he’s very high on on Misa kind of sticking into the uh future and mentions that he should be in a colder conversation before the season starts um Dickinson like he’s going to, you know, and we know like Stephen Ellis is a massive massive Sam Dickinson fan. Um, and he says he wouldn’t bet against him staying in the NHL. And if he goes back, he’s going to have a like 100 point season in the OL if it’s with London or with someone else. But, um, you know, he’s he’s very high on Dickinson. And he’s been very much in the uh Dickinson could be playing like should be playing in the NHL this year. So, um, he does though. He does. Here’s his prediction. I will read it word for word. Look, there’s no reason to sugarcoat it. San Jose is doomed and that’s perfectly okay. The Sharks last made the playoffs in 2018-19. That’s not going to change next spring with Gav McKinna being the ultimate prize the 2026 NHL draft with a few others to challenge. She has a link to some of the other guys there. Greer and company are fully solely focused on finding some incremental improvements while still finishing at the bottom of the standings. Maybe an improvement from 52 points last year to 58 would be appreciated by the fan base, but anything other than landing the top pick in the draft will feel like a failure in the 2526 season. And that Mr. Ellis, I disagree with you 100%. Um, if the Sharks don’t get the first pick in the draft or at least the driver’s seat, um, I actually would be more disappointed. Again, like I I’ve kind of gone back like I think the Sharks are the worst team in the NHL. Um, that’s a bad sign, right? Well, one like you can’t repeat that. two, I think that shows a lot of the guys that you are hoping to kind of be key pieces maybe aren’t the guys that you’re expecting, right? And I know like Ascarov, if if if the Sharks are that bad again, it probably means that Ascarov had a horrible season, right? somebody you’ve invested a lot of capital into acquiring uh with a first round pick and then a first, you know, former first round prospect in David Edstrom to get Asgrov here. And that would probably mean that he falls flat on his face this year cuz I I think if Ascrov is anywhere near league average, I think the Sharks are going to pick up a couple more wins than you know the four points that they uh or six points that they improved by um because of Ellis. So that Ellis has projected. I also think that means that guys like, you know, Celibbrini and Smith, again, like I kind of mentioned earlier, just don’t have those big seasons. And while, yes, getting Gav McKenna would be cool, I I I think the Sharks would be very happy to get the second pick. And even, you know, looking at kind of how many defensemen are projected to, not only defenseman, but right-handed shot defenseman projected to be in the top 10, there’s about four of them um that, you know, kind of early on projections right now. Like, if the Starks are in the top 10 here, they’re going to have a really good opportunity to find that uh stud right-handed defenseman. And yes, you should always pick the best player available. Um, but you can make a very easy argument that the best player available and your needs could very much align here. And while getting Gavin McKenna would be cool, it’s just it’s throwing more for like you’ve already invested so many first, you know, top it would be Equin who’s a top seven pick. Uh, McKenna who’s the number one overall pick. Celebrity is the number one overall pick. Will Smith who’s the number four overall pick and Michael Misa who’s the number two overall pick. Like that would be your that’s five right there. Um that’s a lot of investments in your your forward group. So uh yes I I do think the Sharks and Mike Greer want to see some you want to see that your your investments in these players start to kind of start to pay off a little bit and start to show some growth. So, uh, I don’t think if San Jose has does not get the first overall pick this year, it’s a failure of a season, Stephen. So, uh, yeah, we’ll we’ll fight next time you’re on the show. So, um, anyway, that’s going to be it for me today. We’ll be back tomorrow. Uh, make sure we you’re following along wherever you get podcast. And of course, you can watch on YouTube as well. Follow the show on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram as well on Tik Tok at Lockdown Sharks. Follow me on Twitter and Blue Sky Fryhole. Uh, until tomorrow. Bye, friends.

The San Jose Sharks face a daunting challenge in their quest for a playoff spot, with odds stacked against them at just 9%. Recent roster decisions have shaped the team’s lineup, with prospect Joshua Ravensbergen returning to juniors. The Athletic’s ranking places the Sharks at 31st in the league, projecting 73.2 points for the season and highlighting potential growth from young talents William Eklund and Will Smith. In contrast, Daily Faceoff offers a more pessimistic outlook, predicting a finish at the bottom of the standings.

JD Young provides an in-depth analysis of these season previews, emphasizing the critical importance of prospect development over draft position. He argues that the progress of current top prospects is crucial for the Sharks’ future success. The episode explores the team’s goaltending situation and examines the state of their defensive prospects, offering suggestions for addressing depth concerns in these areas.

This comprehensive episode offers listeners a thorough examination of the Sharks’ roster composition, season projections, and the key factors that could shape their 2025-26 campaign. From the long-shot playoff chances to the potential impact of young players, the discussion covers all angles of the team’s outlook. Fans will gain valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing the Sharks as they navigate the upcoming NHL season.

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro: Sharks’ playoff chances and roster updates
5:07 Analyzing recent Sharks roster cuts and assignments
12:00 The Athletic’s preview: 9% playoff chance for Sharks
15:54 Best and worst case scenarios for Sharks’ season
21:02 Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis is less optimistic on Sharks
25:40 Disagreeing with Ellis on draft pick expectations

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