Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Predictions Today | Best MLB Picks For 9/24/25

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Predictions Today | Best MLB Picks For 9/24/25

Okay, Adam Trigger here. It is Wednesday and it is time for another Major League Baseball free pick right here on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. Solid day yesterday. Two in one two in one day for my clients. Major League Baseball best bet gets there with Diamondbacks plus one and a half. Actually ends up winning outright on a walk-off. That’s back-to-back two in one days. That’s four straight best bet winners, 4% or higher. And the most recent 5% play on Sunday with the Vikings was as easy as it gets. I have another 5% play tonight in Major League Baseball. We look we’ll look to make it three Major League Baseball winners in a row and keep uh that, you know, keep the 5% streak going into tonight. Uh the game I’m going to talk to you guys about today is Pirates Red. So yesterday, the one thing that fell short, I hit I hit Diamondbacks. Um, I cashed my Rockies plus one and a half from the total basis show, but the the free pick video I did on the Cubs yesterday, fell short and much to the chagrin of the Reds, the Cubs had a big lead in that game. Uh, Kate Horton got hurt. They had to go to the bullpen early and ended up blowing that lead. Mets ended up getting the win. And of course with the Reds losing yesterday, um they were not, you know, they they lost ground in what has become a very very tight NL wildard race right now. Of course, the Reds uh are also now cha they’re chasing essentially chasing the Mets and the Diamondbacks. So they really can’t afford to lose games. And I think you are really very much paying the need to win tax to back to back the Reds here. Reason I say that, if this game were three months ago and it was Paul Skins on the mound against Hunter Green, Pirates Reds, even with the game being in Cincinnati, I make the Pirates the favorite. And I think I still make the Pirates the favorite here because nothing has changed for the Pirates. You know, you the Pirates have been playing quote unquote meaningless baseball since May. So, it’s like this is no different of a spot than really any sort of start for skins the rest of the season. But need this one, you’re you’re paying that extra tax which is making the Reds favorite in a game that I don’t think they should be favored in. So part of the reason I like Paul Ske in this spot, he really has not had backto-back bad starts all year. And what when I say bad start for Skins, that would be like one where he doesn’t complete five innings and he gives up like four or more runs. It’s only happened a couple of times this year. Um, back in April, the Cardinals got him for five runs over six innings. Next time out, he was he locked down the Nationals uh one earned run over six innings in a win. Uh to find another spot where that happened, you can go to you’d have to go actually all the way till June when the Brewers got him for four runs on four hits. Next time out, Cardinals. He faces the Cardinals. Five scoreless, five strikeouts. dominant. So again, that’s, you know, you go to August at the Rockies, uh, Ski ended up giving up four runs on five hits over five innings. Game after that was against this Red’s team. Six scoreless, eight strikeouts, gets the win. And then the only other time he’s gotten knocked around this year was again at Milwaukee, which, you know, this was back in August when the when the Brewers couldn’t lose. I’ll give him a pass there. Next time out against the Blue Jays, two runs, six innings, two runs, eight strikeouts, another dominant performance. The reason I bring all that up is last time out against the Cubs, Paul Ske wasn’t very good. Three and two/3, seven hits, three runs, three walks. It was it was his 10th loss of the season and it was one of his worst sort of outings of the season. I I believe I I don’t believe there’s been a scenario other than that start where he didn’t at least make it through four innings. And so I I would say that that arguably was his worst start of the season. The Cubs got him early and then they got him out before the fourth inning. So if you’re looking at what he’s done this year and you kind of know what Paul Schemes the player is, big- time competitor, I I I think he’s more concerned with with putting up stats and numbers than he really is the situation in Pittsburgh right now. You got to think that like this might be the last time he pitches this year. You have to think he wants to bring it. he probably is going to ask for, you know, let let me take the ball. Let me go throw my 100 pitches and try to get my 11th win of the season. At the very least, he’s g he’s going to want to pitch well and shut down the Reds for as long as he’s in the game. Now, it’s not to say Hunter Green won’t want to do the same thing. Of course, he the Reds need him to they need him to to get to the playoffs if they want to get to the playoffs. But, you know, up until like a week ago, this was a sub 500 team and a team that really kind of hovered around 500 all season. So, I think we’re maybe getting out ahead of ourselves right now to suggest that the Reds are are anything other than like a 500 ball club. uh that happens to be in the race because some of the teams ahead of them, the Mets, have gone on a losing streak to sort of let them back in to the wild card picture. It’s skewing the sort of profile for the Reds and it’s it’s inflated them in my opinion as a favorite. Um Hunter Green obviously big- time fast ball, but he’s going to throw it 55 60% of the time. He’s a three- pitch pitcher. And the one thing I’ve noticed with Green is when he does give up a hit, he does they’re loud. They tend to be loud. The reason is uh most of the time guys have to essentially sit on the 100 mph fast. So, you know, you look at his whip 0.92. That’s elite. 125 strikeouts in 101 and two/3 innings pitch. Another elite uh metric right there. But because he throws his fastball so often and because it’s a 100 and and it’s a four seamer, so sometimes it’s a 100 and it comes in pretty straight, uh, if he grooves one, guys will hit it and and they can hit it hard. It’s also another reason he he’s maybe sort of, you know, there’s there’s a possibility of a home run or two leaving the ballpark and that being my concern with him here is he he p he’s all up in the zone. Everything Hunter Green throws is up. So the so the the his MMO is essentially uh I’m gonna run it run it in there 100 miles an hour. I’m gonna get it up so it gets on you quick and it and it looks like something that you want to swing at, you’re probably going to swing and miss out of out of pitches that are up out of the zone. And if you do know it’s coming, there’s a good chance I beat you with it anyway because it’s 100 miles an hour. All of that makes sense. All of that’s the reason he’s as good as he is. But any big league hitter, even guys on the Pirates, if they if they time up a hundred or if it’s out over the middle of the plate a little bit or if it’s if it’s a little bit, you know, if they can catch up to the high pitch in the zone, they can hit that ball out of the ballpark. And so there’s always sort of a path to a couple of runs against Hunter Green via the long ball for that reason. Bottom 10% in the league in um ground ball rate, so almost all flyball outs. That’s not exactly what you want at Great American Ballpark. This is one of the more home home run friendly parks in the league. And then that hard hit rate is still in the bottom 20% of the league. So even though he doesn’t give up many hits, when they when people do make when when players do make contact off Green, it’s hard and you never know where it’s going to go, right? Hard hit up in the zone typically leaves the ballpark. Um, you know, exit VO. So hard hit being defined. Uh his average exit velocity 90.1%. That’s still bottom 30% in the league. That can go anywhere including into the seats. When you’ve got Paul Ske on the other side, you’ve got the better bullpen arms behind him. I do think that makes skins a slight favorite. So free pick today. Paul Ski, I think he’s going to pitch well. I’ll go with the Pirates. I think you could look first five as well, but I’ll I’ll for for the sake of grading or or keeping track of this free pick video. Pirates plus 105. We we laid minus 105 with the Cubbies yesterday in the free pick video. It fell short. So, we’ll see if we can offset that with a plus 105 here on the Pirates. I have a 5% play in Major League Baseball tonight. Uh I am going for I think three in a row in MLB and also another 5enter. Hit my last 5enter on Sunday in the NFL with the Vikings. It was a it was a rocking chair winner and I hope we’ve got another one of those in Major League Baseball tonight. That’s up on my page. You can find that at the link below. If you’re looking for more Major League Baseball, check out Total Bases. Uh it was just me and Brian Leonard. Brian Leonard and I this morning, but uh we hit about seven or eight different games on today’s slate. Um and we’ll see you back in the morning tomorrow, 9:00 a.m. Eastern, right here on the Wager Talk YouTube channel for more total bases. Um have a great day everyone. Cash all your tickets and we will see you guys tomorrow.

If you are looking for MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds matchup, we have you covered! Our MLB handicapping experts discuss the spread and total from a sports betting perspective, sharing their picks and predictions vs the current odds.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | MLB Game | Wednesday, Sept 24, 2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates square off against the Cincinnati Reds in a National League Central showdown on September 24, 2025. The game will take place at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.

📺 How to Watch: Live on MLB Network and regional sports affiliates | First pitch: 6:40 PM ET
🏟️ Location: Great American Ball Park — Cincinnati, OH

Betting Info (as of this week):

Spread: Reds -1.5
Total: 7 runs

Game Notes & Facts:

#LetsGoBucs: The Pirates continue to build around a young roster, with player development being a key focus of the organization.

#ATOBTTR: The Reds are known for their strong offensive stretches at home, and Great American Ball Park consistently ranks as one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in MLB.

Cincinnati is MLB’s oldest professional baseball team, founded in 1869, while Pittsburgh remains a franchise steeped in history with multiple World Series titles.

This late-season matchup has divisional implications, adding intensity to one of baseball’s long-standing rivalries.

📢 Join the conversation on Twitter with game-day hashtags: #LetsGoBucs #ATOBTTR #Pirates #Reds #MLB

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