Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview & Prediction | PFF

Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview & Prediction | PFF

commanders at the Falcons. We’re recording this on Wednesday, but the report that was that Jaden Daniels is going to be a limited participant or that he was a limited participant at practice uh with that knee injury this week. You want to talk about the commander side of things? You want to talk about the Falcons still? I’ll take the Commander offensive side of things there. Jaden Daniels limited in practice. Terry McLaren not practicing today and his status is maybe even more in doubt than Daniels right now. Um, but I think when you look at this Commander offense, whether it is Daniels or Marcus Mariota under center and it’s great for all this time that Jaden Daniels has been able to carry him, he’s been their best player since the start of last year. But the X factor, I think, in this team, you mentioned this on Monday, in this team winning and losing is their run game and having balance in their offense. If you go back to the start of last year since, you know, since Daniel’s first start and even three start, three games in there where Mariota played heavily. 16 wins, Trevor. All right. for the Commanders. 91.4 rushing grade and 174, sorry, 176 rushing yards per game. In their seven losses, it’s only a 70 rushing grade and they run for less than four yards a carry. When they can run the football and they’re balanced and they don’t just have to drop back and throw those quick passes that Daniels, yes, loves to throw, but then you’re relying on them too much. When they have balance, they’re extremely dangerous. You saw that last week even with all the backs they have. Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodriguez, Bill Crosky, Merritt, Daniels or Mariota themselves. Then you get Debo Samuel involved. Then you get Jaylen Lane involved. When this offense has balance, they’re extremely dangerous. So I think regardless of which quarterback plays, Daniels or Mariota, they’re going to want to run the football. They’re going to want balance in this offense. Now, I think it will hurt them if Terry McLaren is not going to be in because he’s that deep threat. He’s the guy who can beat man-to-man coverage, even though the Falcons don’t play a whole lot of that. But I do think for the Commanders, it’s still essential that they come out and run the football regardless of which quarterback is in the game. This team, like you mentioned, is so good when they run the football. Well, I I mentioned it on Monday’s show. They have now two of the top five single game rushing yard totals in this young NFL season. And and that’s what they want to do. I think everybody gets caught up in sort of what Jaden Daniels can do as a passer, but it it is built through the run game. And so that is obviously important. That is very paramount for them. For the Falcons side of things, I I I’m sort of piggybacking off of a point that you had on the grade show when we were taking a look at the Falcons and how they struggled against the Carolina Panthers specifically. You talked about how I loved how the way that you phrased this. They were tipping their pitches a little bit, right? When they’re in the shotgun, they’re passing the football. When they’re under center, they’re running the ball. like there’s just not a lot of deception. And that goes into play action because they have one of the most dynamic backfield weapons in the NFL with Bejian Robinson. Not only with handing the ball off to him as a rusher, but also of what he can be as a receiver. You should be utilizing play action almost as much as anybody in the NFL. And yet the Falcons through three weeks, they only have 19 dropbacks where they have where where they have used play action. That’s 29th in the league. So, they’re almost dead last at it. This team should be top five, let alone bottom three, which is just crazy to me that they’re they’re in that spot because you have to be able to manipulate linebackers a lot better when you have Bejian Robinson. And specifically, I think that this could be an interesting matchup for them because the Commanders have done a decent job limiting receiving production for running backs out of the backfield so far through this season. But, you know, it’s an aging Bobby Wagner. It’s a Frankie Lvu who’s a little bit more of an attacker, more of that line of scrimmage type of linebacker. And then sometimes they’ll throw Jeremy Reeves, their their strong safety in there to cover those running backs out of the back field as well. But I I think they they they have to use utilize play action so much more in this game and in this season in general because if not you are leaving meat on the bone when it comes to putting a defense on its heels. Getting them to second guess for just a half second even is sometimes all you need. And that’s what play action can do for you. So some teams I understand like if they’re at the bottom half of the NFL, bottom five, whatever it is, you go, “Yeah, yeah, I mean the rushing attack’s not really a threat.” So I can understand where they come to that conclusion. Even though we’ve talked about here on the show for many years, you don’t necessarily have to have a great rushing attack for play action to still be useful. When you have John Robinson, it’s going to be incredibly useful because I I mean, you have to be a step in front of him. Not just even with him in recognizing it. you’ve got to be a step ahead to try to stop this guy out of the back field. So, that’s what I really want to see from the Falcons offense. Let’s get some more play action in there this week. And I think Bejan can once again be a u uh a a focal point of what your passing attack is going to be. I will say though, as we come to my prediction here, I I I kind of wanted to go with the Falcons because they’re pretty potent with their passing attack and if they fix some of the things that we talked about on the Monday show, I do think that this team could get a win, especially with them hosting it. But this is this they are tied for the lowest field goal grade in the NFL with all the blunders that they have had kicking this season. It’s hard for me to bet on a team that I can’t trust to get three points even when if you are well within field goal range. If you are kicking anything beyond a 40 if you are kicking anything like 40 to 50 yards that should be in today’s NFL pretty automatic. And I just don’t even know if the Falcons are able to convert those opportunities. So, I’m going with the Commanders by three, by a field goal. I’m going to go Commanders 24, Falcons 21. I I’ve got Commanders 27 to 20. I I still, even if it’s Mariota instead of Daniels playing this game, I still feel good about where the Commanders offense is at and what they showed us last week. And despite the Commanders being dead last in coverage grade so far this year, if your passing game, if you’re the Falcons, is predictable, then it doesn’t matter. They’re the commanders are going to be the ones that win that battle more often than not as long as they’re not getting beat with deep shots. And and you mentioned it, they need to run more play action. And the field goal part, I think, is interesting because it speaks to a broader theme of them not finishing drives. We saw in the Minnesota game, despite them winning, was it one for five, I believe they were in the red zone. Red zone’s been a problem. Even last week against Carolina, there was several times when they were knocking on the door, but they just couldn’t get inside the 30 and finish drives. So, I think it’s a real problem. This Falcons offense is I don’t want to say it’s in disarray because it is one bad performance, but you’re not seeing as clear an identity through three weeks as you want to. I like the Commanders in this game. I think they know who they are. And I think regardless of whether it’s Daniels or Mariota in there, this offense can run pretty smooth. The Falcons 30th in the NFL so far through three weeks, 28.57% converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns. You know what also sticks out here? Houston’s at zero zero% yet to score a touchdown when they get to the end the the red zone. That’s not great. But we’ll obviously talk about the Houston Texans a little bit later in the

PFF’s Dalton Wasserman and Trevor Sikkema preview the matchup between The Washington Commanders and The Atlanta Falcons.

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