Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction | NFL Week 4 Picks | 9/28/25

Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction | NFL Week 4 Picks | 9/28/25

Dublin game in Dublin, Ireland. But before we do, shout out to our friend WT gifting a $20 donor to bless our week for action. WT means a ton. He says, “The jungle bar leche girls are eaten.” Eris Famoso, thank you WT, man. I very very thankful to cap with you my friend and thank you for uh the support. Let’s head to Dublin Islands. Beautiful weather on Sunday. 9:30 a.m. Eastern, 2:30 p.m. local time. 58 Fahrenheit, partly cloudy, 5 mph winds, Vikings, Steelers. Much like what we just talked about on the Thursday nighter, we have a mighty powerful move towards the Minnesota Vikings. This look ahead was the Vikings plus one. Then before the games took place, it opened up at a two and a half. Uh after the games took place and and when before the games took place, you know, it was available between two and a half two kind of fooling around and then after we saw the Vikings dominate, absolutely dominate. Uh it moved to one plus one and that didn’t last long. That lasted 10 minutes when they reopened the line and it went from plus one to minus one and a half that fast. Then there was a little bit of buyback down to a minus one. Then this got up to a minus3. This was a minus3 uh la yesterday morning. So Monday morning this was a minus three. Now it was, you know, pretty heavily juiced towards the Steelers. Right now it’s a minus two and a half. Heavily juiced to the Vikings. So you can pay for a three or a two and a half depending on what side that you’re on. From a total perspective here, we have a 41. The look ahead was a 41 and a half. Uh, it came out at 40 and a half and it’s climbed a half point to 41. We get to the cash flow here. We have 64% of the tickets, 63% of the cash on Pittsburgh, 83% of the tickets, and 94% of cash on the over. Thank you guys so much for joining us here. Uh, we got Rich H, just my two cents, Terry Walker, Nasty Nate. Bunch of great friends and cappers here in the chat. Thank you for supporting us here. Vikings come in off an impressive 48-10 victory over the Bengals. It was their most lopsided victory since 1998, their highest score since 2015. They were up 34-3 at the half. You know, I got to cash everything here. And it was so simple to me. moving on the Vikings. One, you couldn’t possibly buy them any lower. This was going to be the lowest possible point all year to buy the Vikings. And two, the Bengals defense is so horrific that points were going to be scored. It was pretty simple. Didn’t take a lot to get there. Although I didn’t I wasn’t there on Tuesday. It kind of came throughout the week. They out gained the Bengals 352 to 171. Carson Wentz and we heard from Dennis Garcia. He raised the Vikings a half point in the power rankings with Wentz at quarterback compared to JJ McCarthy. And Wentz proved it. 16 years doesn’t matter. He went 14 and 20 for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Uh McCarthy dealing with an ankle injuries already being ruled out for this one. Justin Jefferson caught five passes for 75 yards. TJ Hawinson caught five for 49 and a touchdown. And with Aaron Jones on IR, Jordan Mason was incredible. 16 carries for 116 yards. The Vikings were just four of 12 on third down, but went four of five in the red zone. Isaiah Rogers was incredible. Returned two interceptions for touchdowns, caused three of the five turnovers. The pass rush was strong. Finished with four sacks and nine quarterback hits. Javon Hargrave left the game with a chest injury. He’s listed as questionable this week. We’ve heard already from KC that he would have returned if the game was closer. So, he’s expected to be good to go. Josh Medalis also had an interception. They held them to three of 11 on third down and gave them one red zone opportunity. Big news was left tackle Christian Daraw returned 11 months after tearing his ACL and MCL and Harrison Smith made his season debut. Uh he did deflect a pass you know that that Isaiah Rogers picked off. It was it was because of his deflection. Steelers coming off a 214 win at New England. I was very thankful that I just listened to you guys. I told you how I wanted New England. A lot of you guys said that was the wrong decision to make and I stayed off. But the Steelers were out gained 369 to 203 and they benefited off winning the turnover battle 5 to one. So it’s not a real 5-1. 5 to1 and they struggled. Yeah. Pull up that W. Yeah. Aaron Rogers threw for 139 yards. I mean it was not pretty. And and none of his passes are going he’s not stretching any defense. 16 to 239 yards. two touchdowns, interception. Calvin Austin led receivers with three catches for 34 yards and a touchdown. DK Meco caught three for 32 and a touchdown. Jaylen Warren ran 18 times for 47 yards. He caught five for 34 yards. They were 49 on the third down, but they were a perfect three of three in the red zone. And that’s, you know, Aaron Rogers, he’s he’s able to hurt you in those areas. The defense looked much better. I mean, they forced four fumbles. Pass rush looked much better. They’re led by TJ Watt. Five sacks, eight quarterback hits. Held the Patriots at two of four in the red zone. Bren Eckles had an interception here. So, I don’t want to buy the Vikings high, but I know that what we saw the Steelers do last week was not and you’ll could give us the noise score at PFF. I imagine I imagine Patriots, you know, according to that score would have won the game. I don’t want the Vikings now. I I I only I I’m gonna buy low and sell high, but do I want the Steelers? Troy Torrance, the NFL Dublin game. Take it away. Yeah, I have to go get that. That’s one I don’t have here. And that’s something I want to check out. What did PFF have for that? I’ll have to I’ll have to turn back around. Oh, here we go. Here we go. I got it. I found it. So So the PFF noise cancelled score was 21 to 19 in favor of the Patriots. So, it was still I mean it was a very closely contested game. The books were spot on with the price of the game. Uh and I and I’m I’m in the same bet as you. I did not want to buy the Vikings high. I thought I’d end up being on the Steelers in this game. The two and you know, especially the Vikings coming off a game against the 2-0 Bengals that should have been 0 and2. Carson Wentz clearly an upgrade from JJ McCarthy, but it was easy to perform in that environment that he was gifted versus an easy defense at home playing with the lead. Despite that, he still wasn’t grading out very well. And if you go back and watch the tape, there were some things he did that I don’t think we would have seen from McCarthy that were good, but there was also some things that we wouldn’t see from McCarthy that were bad. The Bengals just could not stop turning over the ball. Neither could the Patriots against the, you know, both teams these two opponents played where we’re just turning it over at will. I just can’t help to think back like when I’m starting to cap this game, I can’t stop but thinking back to what happened in week one with the Steelers against the Jets when they were blitzing Rogers at a 50 plus% clip and they were just getting picked apart. We know Flores, his defense is predicated on the blitz. Are we going to see a change in this game for this matchup? I would expect that to be the case, but and I’ve usually been right with making these assumptions, but not always, especially with Flores. Flores is a wild card. I don’t really know what the hell I’m gonna get from him. And under Tomlin, the Studios have played man coverage uh at the highest rate in the league. Wait, played man coverage at a higher rate than league average. Excuse me. Yeah, I know they weren’t playing at the highest rate in the league. Up 6% this season from 49% last season. I think they look at their two corners and they’re like, “Hey, we got we got great corners. we play more man coverage and that just hasn’t worked out. These these corners are aging Ramsay and Slay. They played zone coverage on third and long versus Drake man. They got exposed when they did that and Wentz has historically struggled more against man coverage. So that maybe is a little bit in the in the favor of the Steelers, but I don’t think the Steelers have the personnel to play man coverage. I mean, those corners are aging. 31 and 36 years old. I think that this game’s going to come down to who’s going to win in the trenches trenches. Look at the Vikings. The only competent rushing attack they played was the Falcons. And the Falcons ran the ball for six yards per carry and over 200 yards. The only competent rush defense that they play was the Falcons and they ran the ball for less than four yards per carry. The offensive line though, however, is grading out 10th in pass block and fifth in the run block category. Flip it over to the Steelers. They have yet to run the ball for over three yard three and a half yards per carry. They got outrushed by all three opponents so far this season. And that’s against weak competition. Their O line is grading out significantly worse than the Steelers. And parlay that with Rogers who has the lowest eight out in the league by far and a lack of weapons. It’s a recipe for disaster. You could just put eight in the box. You could force him to try to beat you over the top. Have the safety shade over the top of uh DK Metaf. And I feel like it’s a pretty easil easy formula for a defensive coordinator to figure out the Steelers offense. Um, you know, they barely beat the Patriots despite five turnovers. They got outgainained by 1.1 yards per play against the Patriots team. I think this Vikings team is better than any team this Steelers team has seen thus far this season. I wanted to find a way on the Steelers. I couldn’t get there. Clear coaching advantage in favor of the Vikings. A trench advantage in favor of the Vikings. and uh a wash at QB, I’d say, because I am not impressed with either of these quarterbacks to be honest. And maybe I give Rogers a slight upper hand, but not much. I just can’t get behind the Steelers team that has no offensive prowess and are just publicly overvalued in my opinion because of their paper, their defense on paper and because of Tomlin. I bet the Vikings minus two and a half at minus 115. the Vikings minus 2 and a half at minus 115 for Troy. You know, I simply won’t I’m simply not going to believe what I saw from Carson Wentz last week. It’s that simple. I don’t want the Steelers. I don’t want the Steelers at all. Uh our guy Gorki is on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Shout out to Gorki. Thank you for the $5. don’t know my man. He’s got the Steelers money line here in this one. Uh, as you know, Birdie saying that his model loves the Vikings. Flores D versus the Pit O line is a major mismatch. Mini wins running away. I am interested in and we also of course as our guy Spenny talked about Jordan Addison returning giving another weapon for the Vikings. I just uh all year long I’m not going to buy high. Uh I’m not going to buy high. And uh but you could sell high. That’s true. Team should be 0 and three. That’s true. That’s true. But I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of points scored in this football game. And this total opening up so low. I’m sure that appeals to over betterers. The the look ahead was 41 and a half. So now we’re at a 40 and a half or or 41. There’s a reason I didn’t touch on the market either and it’s because there’s no home road dichotomy in this game. So I don’t I don’t put much value in, you know, analyzing the market as I usually do. I I just am not going to believe what I saw with the Vikings. So, as much as I understand that the Vikings, you know, are a better football team than the Pittsburgh Steelers at this point in the season, it doesn’t I just after them destroying Cincinnati and feeling so good about themselves, it’s just not how I want to back. Oh man. And I got I got another point when I’m hearing about I heard I read I’m reading the chat and I seen I really wanted to donut silks. really wanted to bet against Pit this week, but betting Wentz in London is not my cup of tea. Uh, that cup of tea and crumpets out there in London is going to be delicious for these guys. But remember when Aaron Rogers went to London and played with the Jets out there? That was an abomination of football. He was the worst it was the worst quarterback play I’ve seen all last season. So maybe, you know, he has more familiarity with the, you know, I could see you making a case for that or against that because now you could say he’s going back for his round two in London and he should be able to perform better or you could say he’s just he’s just a bum and he’s even worse in London. Well, I have uh interest in the under. I don’t know if this would be a double up spot. That’s what I’ve been preferring to do with all my unders these days is is take them first half and full game. Not split a unit up, but put a unit on each. I just I I do not believe what I saw from the Vikings offense and I don’t want the Steelers. So that means that I think I want to focus on a total and then I could focus on the Steelers team total under, but I kind of want to mess and I almost never take dog team total unders unless I really expect nothing out of them. So I’m going to need a little bit more time on this. I expect to move on an under here. I’m very curious to see what happens with this market. I don’t feel like you need to move too quickly here. Uh so there we go. Uh Scott looking at the under as well. Uh, man bear pick says, “I don’t see how he could back the Vikings in this spot.” Says, “Doesn’t Rogers have some experience with these international games?” He does. Uh, Scott says he doesn’t care where it’s played. He is on the under. And Troy has moved on the Vikings minus two and a half. Let’s roll

Tune in as Jimmy (@JimmyTheBag) and Troy Torrence (@TroyTorrence11) preview and predict the week 4 matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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