Boston Bruins’ BEST & WORST-CASE Scenarios for 2025-26
The nightmare scenario for the Boston Bruins this season would be to miss the playoffs by a single point. The dream scenario, well, it’s either winning the Stanley Cup or winning the Gavin McKenna draft lottery. You’re Locked on Bruins, your daily podcast on the Boston Bruins, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. What is up, Bruins fans, and welcome back to the Locked On Boston Bruins podcast. I’m your host, Ian McLaren, and this is a daily show where we discuss all things spoke to be. On today’s show, we’re going to discuss the nightmare scenario for the Boston Bruins, which would be playoff purgatory. Then we’ll flip to the dream scenario, which is always a Stanley Cup victory, but this year it could also be winning the draft lottery. and adding another potential superstar, if not generational talent, to the pipeline. Finally, we’ll land in the middle with what’s actually the most realistic outcome for this season with a look at the future as today’s Bruin of the day. Thank you so much for making Locked On Boston Bruins your first listen every day, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hey, and today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Download the FanDuel app by visiting fanuel.com and win $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. Again, my name is Ian McLaren, host of the LockedBoston Bruins podcast. I’ve been covering this team for nearly 20 years as long along with the NHL as a whole. And I’m here every day to break down the biggest storylines around the black and gold. You can follow the podcast on your favorite podcast app and on YouTube social media, locked NHL Bruins and you can find me Ian C McLaren. So, we got a bit of a break here in training camp. The Bruins have played a couple preseason games already. They had yesterday off. Back to it today in preparation for the next preseason game which will take place on Saturday in Philadelphia. And it got me thinking about what are we actually talking about with regards to the Boston Bruins this upcoming season. What are the best case scenarios, the worst case scenarios, what’s most likely to happen? And I really believe the absolute worst thing that could happen to the Boston Bruins this season isn’t finishing dead last in the NHL. At least then you’ve got a shot at winning the draft lottery and drafting a future superstar in Gavin McKenna. And as we’ll discuss later, this draft is pretty deep. I think the nightmare is just missing the playoffs by a single point or even a tiebreaker. Why is it so bad? Well, it kind of leaves the organization in no man’s land. You’re not competing for a cup and you’re not drafting high enough to add a franchise caliber player. You’re just stuck. This is where some of the big storylines for this season come into play. One, redemption or repeat. Are we going to see the same thing play out as last year where the Bruins finished last in the Eastern Conference where they, you know, everything went wrong for this team last year. And there’s some reason to believe it was a bit of a oneoff, but if you repeat that, especially in this market where expectations are are so high, and let’s be honest, as Bruin fans, we’ve been quite spoiled over the last couple of decades. We’re not talking about Buffalo here where they are on the longest playoff drought in league history. missed the playoffs once and then a couple times like a decade ago, but fans can lose patience pretty quickly. Management is forced to explain how a proud franchise has ended up in mediocrity purgatory. And this comes after Don Sweeney has been extended. They brought in a new head coach. Speaking of Sweeney, that’s where the buyers or sellers question comes in. Every win, every loss this season will shift that conversation. The precedent has been set. You’re outside the playoff picture you’re selling off. Charlie Coyle, Brandon Carlo, Brad Marshant, Trent Frederick, even a lesser guy like Justin Brazo. If they finish just outside the playoff bubble, there’s no real clear answer. Like once the Olympic break comes and the trade deadline comes, if you’re still hovering around a playoff spot, you might not necessarily want to go into that cell mode like you did last year where you had your top two defenseman hurt, your number one goalender struggling, etc. You don’t get the revenue and excitement of playoff hockey and that’s where they make the most bank, but you don’t also get the clarity of committing to a rebuild. What could lead to this nightmare? Well, Jeremy Swayman’s reassension never quite materializes. Maybe he’s solid, but not necessarily elite, and he can’t steal enough games. if he gets back into that elite status and the Bruins are winning games in the playoff picture, you’re going to hear like Vzna trophy talk. And as a result, I bet you we’ll hear some Marco Stern for Jack Adams talk because coach of the year often goes to teams that were bad last year and have moved up and also when you have a goalender who is firing on all cylinders. Maybe the second line center question is going to linger for a while if Pavl Zaka or Casey Middlestat don’t step up. Just not enough scoring depth behind Postnock to get to the 95 point range, which could be what you need to make the playoffs. Don Sweeny’s roster philosophy of grit over skill could easily backfire. This team is tough, should be harder to play against, but they just can’t score enough. If you think about it, look at the cap space they had last summer. 7.4 million is being devoted to having traded for Victor Arvdson and signed Tanner Jano. There was a lack of premium free agents, but would we rather have those two guys or invest that in one surefire score? I’d pick the ladder. Maybe special teams swing the wrong way. Once again, if the power play continues to struggle, the PK isn’t elite. The Bruins could lose some close games that swing the playoff race. Marco Sturm’s first year maybe looks a little conservative. He leans too heavily on veterans which stunts the growth of kids like Fraser Minton, Fabian Lysel, Mason Laurai, Matthew Potra, etc. Worst of all, this means Posterno’s prime years are being wasted. He could score 50, maybe even 60, get 110 points, but it’s all for nothing if the Bruins don’t make the playoffs. Now, I’m not saying they have to be Stanley Cup contenders, but they get into the playoffs, you never know what could happen. Of course, a big part of the discussion is who’s going to fall out of the playoff picture. You look at the Atlantic division. I think Montreal is going to be really good. The Florida teams, Toronto, even without Mitch Mner will still be pretty formidable. You have the Ottawa Senators who were a playoff team last year over in the Metro, Washington, uh Carolina, New Jersey. Then you have the Rangers looking to make a bounce back like our Bruins and the Columbus Blue Jackets on the up. So, the Bruins could very well be stuck in this spot. And it’s the worst case. You don’t bottom out for a chance at Gavin McKenna, but you also don’t get a cup or even a cup run or a playoff run. The cup obviously is the holy grail of hockey. To be stuck in the middle is devastating. And in today’s NHL, that’s really the hardest place to be. All right, let’s flip to the dream scenario. If this season goes as planned, and we’ll discuss that here as the podcast continues. 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Thanks again, friends, for making Lockdown Bruins part of your daily routine. Please get out there today and tell a Bruins loving friend in your life or family member about Locked On Boston Bruins. get them to subscribe on their favorite podcast app and on YouTube so that they never miss a thing. All right, let’s flip to the dream scenario for this season. And the dream scenario, of course, is winning a Stanley Cup. That is the goal of every team. You rebuild in order to amass as much talent as you can to take that next step. It’s incredibly difficult in a league with 32 teams and with a salary cap that kind of levels the playing field. Even if you get into the playoffs, one in 16 chance, so many things have to go right. We all know the Bruins want to win now, but let’s say things completely fall apart. Jeremy Swayman doesn’t bounce back to Vzna form. Marco Sturm can’t quite find the right balance of kids and vets. Can’t push the right buttons. Steve Spot doesn’t have the magic sauce for the power play. And suddenly, the Bruins are back in the basement of the NHL standings. In that case, the lottery ball bounce becomes the best thing that could happen because the 2026 NHL draft class is absolutely loaded at the top. We’re talking about a crop that scouts are already saying has more skill than 2025 and could produce multiple franchise players. This isn’t a weak year where the top pick is just a solid NHLer. This is a chance at a true game changer. The name you’re going to hear all season long, hearing it already, is Gavin McKenna. He dominated junior with 41 goals, 88 assists in 56 games last year, 38 more points in 16 playoff games. He was named both WHL and CHL player of the year. And now he’s at Penn State in the NCAA facing older competition. And his coach literally compared the way he thinks the game to Wayne Gretzky. But McKenna isn’t the only prize. There’s Katon Verhov, a 6 foot3 right shot defenseman who could play 25 minutes a night quarterback of power play. There’s Iver Stenberg, a Swedish forward who could go as high as second overall. Already plays in the SHL with men and is more than holding his own. There’s Ryan Rubrock, 6’3 center who scored 41 goals for Niagara. guys like Matthysse Preston, Tyan Lawrence, who bring speed, skill, playoff competitiveness down the middle. Now, here’s where it gets really exciting for Bruins fans. They already added James Hagens at last year’s draft, another high-end offensive talent who projects as a future topline player. This time last year, he was a near consensus number one pick at the 2025 draft. And the Bruins were so fortunate that he dropped to the number seven spot. If Boston were to win and add McKenna, even Vero for Stenburgg on top of Hagens, that’s suddenly a pipeline with not just good project projects and prospects, but elite building blocks. So, imagine this. The Bruins win the lottery and they’re able to draft their first true elite center prospect since Joe Thornton. Like a higher ceiling than James Hagens. Even pair that with Posterno still in his prime Haggins, Mason Laurai, Fraser Minton, Charlie Makavoy, all the guys. Borg and geeky others developing suddenly you’ve got a real core for the next 5 7 10 years that’s why if Boston completely bottoms out the number one pick would be long-term salvation it gives Don Sweeney clarity it answers the buyers or sellers debate it instantly resets the window so if the Bruins are stumbling out of the gate they’re out of the playoff spot around Thanksgiving and that remains the case through the holidays up to the uh Olympic break into the trade deadline. You have to maximize your opportunity for getting a guy like Gavin McKenna. Yes, the Stanley Cup is obviously the dream this year and each and every year. They have the core pieces in place to be, like I’ve always said, you need an elite goalender, elite defenseman, an elite, ideally center, but elite forward, top 10 player in the NHL to really compete for the Stanley Cup. Jeremy Swayman can be that guy. Charlie Makavoy can be that guy. Dave Apostern is that guy. So, if you make it to the playoffs, you never know what’s going to happen. And the Bruins could, if things are going well and they’re like in a top three spot in the Atlantic come the trade deadline, maybe they make some swings and even add some smart plays like they have in the past. Don Sweeny’s strength in my mind has always been trading, not so much signings. Draft record a bit better than some people uh rate it to be. Get into the playoffs, you never know what could happen. Maybe they go on a run. Look, they weren’t really expected to go on a deep run in in 2019. They benefited from Columbus beating Tampa Bay in the first round. Came so close. That’s the obvious dream scenario each and every year. That’s what we watch hockey for. We want our team to be known as the best in the NHL. We want those bragging rights. We don’t want Florida to win again. We don’t want the Leafs to ever crack through. We don’t want the Canadians to rise up as a powerhouse in the Atlantic, although they’re kind of shaping up to be. But how do they get there? Well, it was a few years of being down. Some smart trades, timely trades, some good drafting. Look, they got Nick Suzuki for Max Patcher ready, who was their captain at the time, best scorer. If things don’t go well for the Bruins over the next couple years, is that what Dave Aposterno’s fate is going to be? You don’t want to waste his prime years. And you could argue that bottoming out is doing so, but you’re also adding an immediate impact player that could step alongside him. If you get Gavin McKenna, you immediately pair him with Dave Aposterno next season. He will not need another year in NCAA. He’s a jump to the NHL. Put him in prime spot kind of guy. So, in a strange way, winning the lottery would be just as impactful because I mean, look, they’re not winning the Stanley Cup. If you win the lottery, it sets them up for the next 10, 12, 15 years to be a more successful franchise. That’s just the reality. What is the most likely outcome? It’s probably a middle path. So, we’ll discuss that and name today’s Bruin of the Day here as the podcast continues. So, earlier on I said the nightmare scenario for the Bruins would be to miss the playoffs by like a single point or to be tied for the last playoff spot and lose on a tiebreaker because that would put them kind of in no man’s land. You’re not really competing for the Stanley Cup, but you’re not bottoming out in order to add the best possible players through the draft. Stanley Cup obviously is the dream scenario, but the realistic dream scenario, more realistic dream scenario for the Bruins is getting that number one pick. Maybe the reality is somewhere in between. The most likely outcome, somewhere between the nightmare and the dream. Either dream, this Bruins team is probably still too good to completely bottom out, especially if Jeremy Swayman bounces back to top 10, top 15 goalie form, but they’re also missing some key ingredients to be true cup contenders. Their overunder has risen to 79.5. I find it very hard to believe that with Hampus Lindholm coming back with Charlie Makavoy coming back, Jeremy Swayman hopefully back in form, Nikita Zdorov, Elias Lindholm being more comfortable in Boston, David Posternok still rolling despite the knee tendonitis, Morgan Geeki continuing his breakout, some young guys stepping up. I find it hard to believe that there’s not four more points available between last season and this season to make them at least good for that over. Five more wins compared to last season and their 86 points. Do they have 10 more wins in them to put the 96 points? I’m not really sure. Here’s what I think we can reasonably expect. some modicum of redemption, but only partial. They’re going to rebound from last place, but they won’t be among the league’s elite. I still see like look in the Eastern Conference, I still think the Bruins are better than the Pittsburgh Penguins, than the Buffalo Sabres, maybe the Islanders. um the possibly the Flyers as well. So they could be like yeah 10th in the Eastern Conference 11th. Uh they won’t be among the league’s elite. They’ll lean maybe buyers at the deadline, maybe adding some depth at the trade deadline, but not going all in. And I can still see a possibility where they do trade Pavo Zaka if somebody’s stepping up not not just to make the team worse but to allow someone else to step up like a Minton or a Husnino while getting something for uh for Zaka. Swayman’s reasscension will be a story line. If he’s steady Boston makes the playoffs. If he’s Vzna caliber, they could make noise in round one of the playoffs. The captaincy question will likely get answered this year. I still think maybe before training or training camp is over. Whether it’s Pastnak, Makavoy, maybe even Zidorov, clarity and leadership will help stabilize the room. Pastnak’s prime years remain the lifeline of the franchise. He’ll put up elite numbers again, but we all know the lack of second elite scoring will limit the ceiling. The roster philosophy of grit and toughness will win them some battles, but could be exposed by higher skilled teams late in the season or come playoff time. Kids versus veterans will be an ongoing push and pull. Sturm may give guys like Minton and Lurai bigger roles, but when games get tight, you know, the vets are going to eat up big minutes. Second line center question probably ends up with Zaka or Middlestat being good enough, but not gamechanging. Special teams will likely land somewhere in the middle of the pack. Not a huge liability, some improvement over last season, but not a huge game-changing advantage as it used to be. put it all together and I could see the Bruins as a playoff team, glass half full, maybe in that wild card mix. Could they win around? Maybe. Could they go on a deep run? Well, last season everything went wrong. They would need absolutely everything to break right for this team. Swayment to be elite Makavoy to take a next step offensively. the defensive structure locking things down. Uh the power play clicking, penalty kill a being reduced in terms of workload, not taking as many penalties, but also back to lockdown. Uh Morgan Geeki scoring at least 30 goals, pushing for 35. A guy like Matte Bluml scoring 20 25 goals. Victor Arvdson scoring 20 25 goals. Casey Middlestat 60 points. Uh Mikey Acimont, Sean Carali, and Mark Castle being one of the best fourth lines in the NHL. Fraser Minton breaking out at both ends of the ice. A lot has to go right. Moratus Nudinov breaking out with 15 20 goals. But here’s the key. If they’re competitive, if they make the playoffs, and if some of the young guys show real growth, then this season is a step in the right direction. And perhaps it’s not about extreme dream scenarios, best case scenarios, worst case scenarios, steps in the right direction. And look, you could argue that winning the lottery is a step in the right direction for this team. You could argue that making the playoffs is a step in the right direction. stalling out middle of the pack. I don’t think that is a step in the right direction. That’s just kind of holding pattern, not adding elite talent in the draft necessarily and not being good enough to hang with the better teams in the NHL. That brings us to today’s bru of the day, James Hagens. Boston’s big draft pick last year. He represents hope for the future. Even if this season ends in the middle, knowing you’ve already got Hagens in the system, plus the chance to add a pretty good pick or two in 2026. They have two firsts this year. If the lottery balls bounce your way, look, you missed the playoffs, you still have a chance of winning the lottery. Not as big of a chance. And we saw the Bruins drop. This should all give fans reason to be optimistic. At the end of the day, expectations are not high for this team this season. If they’re good enough to hang in the playoff race for some time, that’ll keep people interested. If they’re bad, I don’t think anybody will be shocked. If they’re excellent, that would be more surprising. Stanley Cup is the dream. Gavin McKenna would also be a dream come true as well for this franchise. And it’s not a cup parade. If it’s not a cup parade, if it’s not McKenna and a franchise reset, at least show us some progress. right now. Pl progress plus prospects like Hagens might be enough for Bruins fans to believe this arrow is pointing back up. All right, that’s going to do it for today’s episode of Locked on Boston Bruins. To recap, the worst case scenario is getting stuck in purgatory just outside the playoffs. No cup run, no lottery odds. The best case, of course, is a Stanley Cup parade or landing a franchise cornerstone like Gavin McKenna in the 2026 draft to join Jane Hagens and build a core for the next decade. Most realistically, Boston probably does finish in the middle, maybe a playoff team as a wild card, but not quite yet elite. And at least we have Hagens to build around moving forward. All right, make sure you’re subscribed to Locked On Boston Bruins on your favorite podcast app and on YouTube so that you do not miss a thing. Thank you so much for joining me today. You can follow me on social at C McLaren. Follow the podcast, locked NHL Bruins. Thanks again for making Locked on Bruins your first listen every day. Please do check out the Locked On NHL podcast as your second listen. Leaguewide stories from our local experts. It’s all part of the Locked On podcast network, your favorite team every single day. Please do take care of yourselves, friends. Take care of each other. And we’ll talk to you here on the next episode of Locked On Boston Bruins.
What’s the best- and worst-case scenario for the Boston Bruins this season? Host Ian McLaren breaks it down on today’s Locked On Boston Bruins. The nightmare? Missing the playoffs by a single point — stuck in hockey purgatory with no playoff run and no draft lottery reward. The dream? Either winning the Stanley Cup or winning the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, where elite prospects like Gavin McKenna, Keaton Verhoeff, and Ivar Stenberg headline a loaded class to join James Hagens in Boston’s future core. Most realistically, the Bruins project as a playoff team with limitations, leaning on Jeremy Swayman’s bounce-back, David Pastrňák’s prime years, and the kids vs. veterans depth battle in Marco Sturm’s first season as head coach.
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