Chiefs ‘objectively’ need to beat Ravens more, Can they win a shootout? | FIRST THINGS FIRST

Chiefs ‘objectively’ need to beat Ravens more, Can they win a shootout? | FIRST THINGS FIRST

I have never heard that. The team that drinks together wins. That’s a thing. I don’t know. I just feel like that was just posited and Aaron Rogers has to be like, “No, we tried to do that in Kansas City together and it was just you and me. We were there.” Yeah. What’s up with that? Two of the four. I I didn’t know about the the party till late. Yeah. Yeah. I just found out I’ll Can I Can I add something to this real quick, please? I I had never liked Guinness ever. And I went to Hubs’s wedding or executive producer who married a wonderful Irish girl in Dublin had Guinness in Ireland. Drastically different than the Guinness here. Excellent. And then I talked to him about it. They’re like, “Oh yeah, there’s like regulations and laws about how often you clean the taps and how far it is from the keg.” And the the the bartender saying the Guinness in the US no good. But in Ireland, it is good here. Well, it since then I’ve liked it here, but there it was like a different drink. So, that I’m with Rogers on. I found something that way about Heineken in Europe. Oh, well, it’s fresher. Sure. It’s closer to the source, but again, it’s off tap in Budweiser and 10 out of 10. Yeah. Oh, St. Louis, Kansas City started in that rivalry. Can’t have it. Uh, we’re starting the show today. Ravens are in arrowhead. Uh, Lamar only has one win against Patrick Mahome. got five losses, but that’s all in the past according to Lamar. Danny, who needs this win more? 1,000% objectively, the Kansas City Chiefs. Wow. I I am someone. I I you guys I’ve been listening to you guys talk about this and you’re talking about like the belief that the Ravens need to have against the Chiefs if they get them in January or you’re talking about like the championship pedigree of the Chiefs so that if they lose we like we know they will be fine. If the Ravens lose this game, everyone in the world will still think they’re going to win the AFC North because of the teams in front of them. And that means if you win the division, you host the playoff game. If the Chiefs lose this game and they are three back of the Chargers in the loss column, assuming the Chargers beat the Giants and effectively four back with the tiebreaker, we will be talking about the Chiefs as a wild card team or missing the playoffs and or missing the playoff. Yeah. Well, so here’s the thing. Right now, Nick and I know this. We gamble on sports all the time and sometimes I do color my analysis through what the market says. Odds to make the playoffs today before this game has even happened. The Chiefs are a 2:1 favorite to make the playoffs. The Ravens are a 12 to1 favorite to make the playoffs. meaning this game objectively means more for the Chiefs because if the Ravens based on that I mean I I know y’all in all I I couldn’t care less about those odds as far as anything any odds that are going to tell me if the Chiefs lose which obviously I hope happens that they’re not going to make the playoffs they will they will be a coin flip to make the playoffs if they lose this game they could be a coin flip but do you actually think that is legitimate they yes okay so that all right Well, then as you would say, we can book that. The second of all, they won’t be a coin flip to make it if there might be like minus 13. But regard So, hold on. I agree with you that the Ravens can lose and still be alive to win their division. And if the Chiefs lose, they are on life support to win the division. I totally agree with that. So, doesn’t that objectively make the game bigger for the Chiefs? Because neither one of these teams care about winning a division. All either one of these teams care about is winning a Super Bowl. And what I think is bananas if from you and from the vast majority of media honestly outside of me and Brew is a total double standard for Baltimore. The this idea that Baltimore’s dead last defense, which by the way, how many teams in the history of the league have won a Super Bowl after allowing 40 in week one? Zero. How like how many teams have won a Super Bowl in the last 30 years with a below average much less dead last defense? One. Like we you don’t that that’ll just be fine. But you don’t believe that the Ravens are a dead last defense? No. Well Well, I saw him be a dead last defense for 10 weeks last year. I saw him be a dead last defense for three weeks this year. I saw every the the Chiefs offensive struggles have players coming back. Justin Matabuk or Nambi Madabuk, pardon me. We don’t know like that’s a scary one where there Harbaugh won’t even talk about I think there’s real concern sadly his season could be over and this but bizaro idea that Baltimore that it’s just happen stance that Baltimore doesn’t beat the Chiefs and doesn’t play the best in in the postseason and eventually that’ll change but if they lo when Baltimore is to at the moment the better team than Kansas City the quarterback’s playing better you You said on Monday that Baltimore plus or minus two and a half was an early bet. You loved they lose this game, but no, don’t worry. You play in January and they’re going to feel great about it. I I I don’t understand it. And it is well if they played in January and they were a they won their division and had a home game, they would feel better than Momes as a wild card. Why? We’ve never seen the Chiefs as a wild card. And we had never seen the Chiefs go on the road until they went to Baltimore and beat him. Well, you what we we’ve seen the Chiefs win in the AFC playoffs against every single person that is going to be in the AFC playoffs. We’ve never seen Lamar beat one of his contemporaries. Weird like that we’re in week four and you’re already like there’s some benchmarks for the Chiefs and you’re already like conceding the ground of the AFC West where we like they go one and four and the Chargers are 4-0. Like I’m That’s what I’m saying. like that that benchmark is done. Like they’re like, “All right, they maybe they do it, but it would be a tough climb.” But it feels like you are willing to concede. No, I I think the Chiefs are going to win this weekend. I am willing to concede that if the Chargers are 4-0 and the Chiefs are 1 and three that it would be incredibly unlikely for the Chiefs to win the division. I am, yes, I do think that is true. That is objectively true. But what I don’t understand is this, and no one has explained it to me yet. And the closest I’ve heard from you is I just think offense is more important than defense. Is why the Chiefs mediocre offense at 1 and two is cause for concern more than the Ravens horrific defense at 1-2. Especially when you melt you blend into it. The Chiefs had a decidedly mediocre offense last season and made the Super Bowl and a slightly better than mediocre defense the season before and won the Super Bowl. No one has no one has squared that circle to me other than the Ravens are more exciting to watch and therefore we believe in them more. That’s what I would say because Brew is the biggest Ravens fan I know and he thinks the Ravens need this win more. Yeah. I And I’m not as concerned as you about the Ravens defense. Like I do think that’ll get better whether it can get top 10ish. They might not get there but I definitely think it’ll become much better. So I don’t have those concerns. But yeah, Danny, I mean, you’re right about the division. Like Nick said, I agree with you on that. But for these teams, yeah, you want to win the division. That’s the first goal you have. Every year’s, you know, first win the division, but they are both esb. And I just I do think like the Ravens, if they don’t win this week, they’ll be one and Lamar will be one and six against the uh the Chiefs. The Chiefs are down. They haven’t been playing that well. They they do are banged up a bit as are the Ravens, but the Ravens look like the better team right now. And if they go in there and still can’t beat the Chiefs that la they it was heartbreak last year, right, with Isaiah likely and the toe, it was heartbreak two years ago when again it seemed like everything was in favor of the Ravens. I just think they need and the Chiefs have been through so much that I don’t think mentally they’re going to be shaken at all. So, I I I definitely think the Ravens need it more. You don’t think the the the Chiefs are going to be shaken if they’re one and three? They will have lost to three of the top teams in the league. Now, they won’t like it, but we’ve seen them saw come back from, you know, even last two last year they didn’t look Super Bowl bound. They got there two years ago when they were 11 and six. They lost five out of eight in last year or two years ago. They they lost on Christmas and it was the it was the mortifying loss and the the Raiders had the Mahomes blueprint and they were the least dangerous team in the playoffs. Like they they didn’t think that. So like will the again could they be wrong? But you’re asking like will their faith be shaken? From what I’ve seen and I can’t get into like their heads, but to see like Chris Jones kind of fired up on the sidelines. He wasn’t talking about Tush Bush about the Eagles. they’ve run the same thing over and over and we can’t stop it. That felt like a level of frustration. The fact that Mahomes is a running so much, which he used to only do in the playoffs, and trying to hit guys to give the team a spark as he didn’t. I think it’s that he didn’t run last week. No, he didn’t run last week playing the Giants. I don’t think in general. And then then Travis Kelce actively frustrated even we have different outlooks on the But that’s three that those are the three pillars of the team. What? What if Lamar and Derek, this is my point. What’s Lamar, Dererick Henry, and John Harbaugh? Have those guys This is my Lamar is playing out of his mind. Lamar leads the league in yards per pass, touchdowns, and passes. Hold on, but you weren’t right there. To be fair, you weren’t talking about stats. You were talking about emotions. And if we’re talking about emotions and seeming tight, Lamar seemed oddly vexed week one at the end of the game. And then in week three, Derrick Henry flipped out on the sideline and John Harbaugh gets a little tight in these games. So like if we’re if we’re going to play the body language or that game, my the Chiefs absolutely right now are pressed, they’re frustrated, all those things. My question is, what has Baltimore done to earn the benefit of the doubt that everyone’s giving them but me? It is a product of their opponents. I’m not sitting here talking about body language or vibes or or belief. I think we you can’t read like Yeah, we I’m not into that. Lamar Lamar has never been 1 and three. Mahomes has never been one and three. A team hasn’t made it to the Super Bowl starting one and three since the 01 Patriots. So, this will be unchartered territory for whoever loses this game on Monday. And history will be against whoever loses for ESBO will be against it. All I am saying is having watched the rest of the NFL, it is not just a product of more faith in Baltimore over Kansas City. Because by the way, I absolutely will still think on Monday that the Chiefs, even if they lose the game, will make the playoffs, but it’s I’ll think it. I’ll know the Ravens will make the playoffs if they lose the game because of Cincinnati, because of Pittsburgh, because of the path that the Ravens have to get there. So, I just want to make sure I understand. Sure. the you at one and three you are 100% confident they’re winning their division that the Ravens will make the playoffs. Well, hold on. You were saying you were saying the path is the winning the feel like they’re going to win the division too. No, listen. I think they will. I think that I I think the weird bar of because like the winning the AFC West is going to be harder that adding faith or not faith to the Chiefs when we are talking I don’t think either one of these teams has to win their division. I don’t think either one of these teams has to get the one seed. I think both of these teams are feel like and because of Burrow’s injury and because of what the hell happened to the Texans and because it looks like the Broncos aren’t the team people thought they were going to be that both of these teams could play mediocre for 15 weeks and back into the playoffs at 9 and 8 and be a hell of a team a bummer of a team to play. I completely agree with that. But do you not agree that if the Chiefs lose, they are more in danger of missing the playoffs than if the Ravens lose? I absolutely disagree with that. Okay. Well, that’s the I disagree with that’s the fundamental disagreement then. I while with you, I’m I agree that if the Chiefs lose and and dependent on if it’s bad, it really looks bad, they just might not be as good anymore, but I don’t think mentally they’re going to have any problems. I think they’re still going to believe. I’m only saying I’m not trying to be like Mr. like body language expert. The guy said Travis Kelce said I’m frustrated. No, I think I think that means he sounds you’re pushing your you and your coach are having a physical. Well, they did that in the Super Bowl. How is How is that different than what Derrick Henry said? That’s my question. How is that different than what I’m frustrated? How is How is that frustrated? Derek Derrick Henry fumbled the ball and then talked about how he how how much he’s in a very bad spot, right? I totally agree. But Patrick Mahomes is playing a different style of football that he only does when it’s like, you know, got to have it moments. He’s decided to like run the ball to start, you know, he’s the rushing attack and hitting guys. We haven’t seen that. So, it feels like there’s an element of press that is being exhibited in his play. That’s what I think it’s weird. Like Travis Kelce, I don’t see him pressing during the games. He drops well, I see him, you know, getting mad on the sidelines, but like, oh, Mahomes is actually playing differently. Now, the way he plays differently manifests in like more aggressiveness running and physical play where Lamar kind of just will throw the ball, drop sometimes just drop the ball and throw it to the wrong teams. But Danny, I’m almost saying more on this game in front of me a little bit. a prime textbook example of Chiefs Ravens, two dominant teams, one and three. Hey, what’s going on? We’re just trying to figure out who’s 15 minutes. We don’t know. We can’t figure this out. Let that bake for 15 minutes. But it’s true. It is. You were waiting for it is a Texas moment. What’s going on? Eagles Bucks. These teams are both 3 and 0. What’s going on? Jaylen Herz talked about the game plan, uh, what it might be and what it’s not. If you thought that my body language expertise was a a bit too far, wait till I debut my what is Jaylen trying to tell me about his jewelry choices. Working on that. He sharp. He wears different stuff to convey different messages. Uh what do you need to see from uh in this game? I I’d like to see Jaylen Herz continue what he did in the second half last week. Correct. And Tampa is 3 and 0, but very easily could be 0 and three. Yes. Again, that’s not to take anything away from Same with Philly, right? Philly pretty easily could be. I mean, again, I don’t think either team I don’t think either team actually could be 0 and three, but either team could have lost a game or two along playing far better competition, though. I’ve got a great stat from the last minute the last minute go-ahead drives for Tampa is is different than Philly, especially in that game against Dallas. Want to hear my great stat from Josh? I’ll read it verbatim. First game ever between three and 0 teams that each won all three games by one score. There you go. Oh, there you go. That’s a fun one. Well done, Josh. Good job, Josh. uh historic, but I just whatever Philly’s offense is going to be, I feel like for style points, I know they will say it’s all about winning. Just win. It doesn’t matter. But when you have all of the pieces you were talking about earlier in the show, like the last time they lost to Tampa, yeah, they didn’t have Devonte Smith or AJ Brown in that game. Like that game doesn’t feel terribly relevant if those guys aren’t there. But with their offense struggling now, I’d like to see Jaylen Herz do better than Michael Penn did against this defense. Like, here’s what the quarterbacks have done against Tampa, cuz Tampa’s defense is ranked pretty well. And none of it’s that impressive. None of that feels like it’s terribly unattainable, but I would like to see Jaylen Herz. You You need Jaylen to throw for 300? I don’t know that he’s throwing for 300, bro. I don’t need him to, but in terms of let’s not see the passing game start when they’re down 19. Well, that Well, they better not be down 19. Sure. Sure. Well, so throw it earlier in the game. I like don’t just play so conservative where you have to use it at the very I agree. Like I I would like to see them throw more, throw downfield more, but to me just win this game. Well, that’s Philly’s whole mantra. It’s particularly this game though. And obviously you’re right, the receivers weren’t there. But still, you’ve lost to Tampa the last two times. I just think you want to send a message to the Bucks like look, you don’t have anything on us. We are you we treat you like we treat everybody else. So just win this game. I don’t think this is the week to experiment. I I I I agree they should do that, you know, more, but this week just get the W. So I I don’t think Philly should feel like they had a good game plan last week. I think the team that was a great win. I think that the Eagles organization should feel awesome. Yeah. I think Jaylen and AJ should feel great about how they rallied. I think Jordan Carter uh Jordan Davis and Jaylen Carter, pardon me, should feel awesome. And Sirriani maybe should even be like, man, even though we did fumble the ball right after halftime, I’m going to say I gave a great halftime speech because right after that we rallied. But Kevin Bulo and that offensive game plan, the opening script, all of that, that’s the one part of like their week three grade that I would say, yeah, you failed your what your what you thought would work offensively resoundingly historically didn’t where you’re at Gillette and you see the flash, it says they have one yard and we’re midway through the second quarter minus minus one passing yard, right? It’s not enough. And so I not good. I am not discrediting the win, but as like this is a coach me and Genie staple. Do not ignore in victory what you would not ignore in defeat. Okay. Jaylen Herz is the um no but the and again I want to make it very clear. I’m not trying to play the what if game like, oh, they should be this record. But I do think if I’m Kevin Patulo, I am trying to ask myself if Jordan Davis doesn’t block that and we lose that game, am I saying I did us wrong by how conservative I was early? So, I agree with Danny 100%. I think they should have a concerted effort to put on film. We will open the game with seven straight passes if we want to. You know what I mean? can do that because I also think Brew that’ll help Saquon right now. I think teams are acting like they don’t have star receivers cuz they might as well not because they’re not throwing it to him early. So I just that’s what that’s I think what’s smarter for Philadelphia to do that in this spot. The last time there was a lot of like this much hubbhub it was going to that Steelers game. So they did respond a little bit to the media pressure. Well that was internal. I mean that was different because that was AJ Brown but but Jaylen blamed the media. Yeah, I know for again if people forget AJ Brown was like passing off is going to be better. Then Brandon Grammer on local radio was like man those guys used to be friends. I don’t know what happened. And then Jaylen Herz came out was like is this what you guys wanted? Drew Brees, that’s what you wanted to see. Back in this time every week it’s fremies Danny and Nick here. I feel like we just were talking about this and upset you a little bit but it didn’t upset me. I just I I’ll tell you what upset me. Okay, here we go. I I root for the show to be good. I root for my friends to be smart and correct and your your take was just so bad that it worried me. I was like, we’re going over like the show is not good and my friend is wrong. I feel like my take was like objectively. Yeah, of of No, it makes a ton of sense that two one and two teams playing. one who goes to every Super Bowl and wins half of them and one who hasn’t gone to any and wins none of them. That team has more of a margin of error. We don’t have to re have to make fremies as bad as that last segment because of a bad take. All right, fine. Are you confident, Nick, that your squad’s ready to win a shootout if necessary? Yeah, if they need to. Yes, the I don’t think the Ravens defense is good. And I the I you you pulled out some fugazi stat the other day about numbers but it’s just it’s like arbitrary end points like you you were you pulled out some it’s been I don’t know since like November of 2023. I thought it was 400 yards 30. Well it was right. It was more than 30 points and I was like, wait, they scored 32 in the AFC Championship game, but you added the 400yard qualifier as if that matters at all. An explosive offense. So, like, how does it not matter? Listen, I think that with Xavier Worthy coming back, with I think the Chiefs offense, to Patrick’s point, moving the ball last week, but settling for field goals, I also think with the Ravens are going to have a really hard time rushing the passer in this game, that if they need an explosive offense, they’ll get one. I don’t think that’s what this game’s going to be. I think this game is more likely to be I think it will be more similar to the AFC Championship game which was a defensive battle. I don’t think it’ll be that than it w than to Bill’s Ravens week one which I know everybody looks at Bills Ravens week one and because everyone is just so warped by all that matters in the NFL is offense even though that’s objectively not true. Those are two amazing teams as opposed to two amazing offenses with potentially problematic defenses. I don’t think it’s going to look like that. Well, listen, you the Chiefs became this dynasty because of great offenses, right? But they won their championships because they finally had good defenses. So, you’re a defense wins championships guy. I am certainly a you are not going to play deep into January with a bad defense guy. I tr See, I trust at this point in the season, this is not January. It is not cold. It is a regular season game, right? So, I tr so far from what I’ve seen with my eyes watching the games, I trust Baltimore’s offense more than I trust anything on Kansas City. And in that spot, I think your team’s in a little bit of danger of getting blown out. And that rarely happens, but I I said, “Nick, I put they don’t get blown out the Super Bowl.” Well, I I put together a list for you. Okay, sure. I’d love it. of of Mahomes blowouts. And I’m just wondering where you think this game is going to fall in on this graph. Where’s the other ones? What do you mean? Oh, that’s all of them. Yeah, that’s all of them. He’s in year This is his ninth year in the league. Five worst. This is No, no, no. You got them all. Those are the five games he’s lost by more than 10 points. It’s not It’s not sorted in any particular order. It’s the whole list of I mean it’s I guess biggest to least but I’m saying but it’s that’s all of them. That’s every game he’s lost correct by more than I think nine points certainly more than 10. And so what you are going to notice on that list is three of those came in a sevenweek cluster. It was the or seven game cluster uh the beginning of the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. Yeah. the idea. And one of them is the weirdest game ever. That 2023 game against the Broncos. That is the weirdest. That was a horrific Broncos team. That Chiefs team was in the midst of winning another Super Bowl. That was a weird one. Um the I can’t believe you think the Chiefs can get blown out. Here’s the reason, dude. Like they the last time the Ravens scored 24 or less was 10 games ago, week 13 against the Eagles before their buy last year. The Chiefs haven’t scored 25 or more, the three games this year or the three in the playoff games last year. They are not currently Hold on, that’s not true. They scored 32 in the AFC Championship game. The the the three games leading into the playoffs they did. Yeah, that’s correct. That’s right. Yeah. So, I just I look at it as right now Baltimore I trust what they are able to do offensively and you a week ago before they played the Giants had concerns about the Chiefs defense. Yeah. And so I don’t think that the all of a sudden playing Russell Wilson solves the concerns of the Chiefs defense. This is what I think and this is what I is just it’s not going to be able to be translated via any advanced stat or EPA or DVOA or anything like that. I’m not I’m just saying in general I believe there is a skill to forcing games to be played on your terms and I think the Chiefs have been brilliant across this seven years of the games fit the personality of the team that they are when they like when they wanted to be high-flying it oddly made other teams who weren’t aren’t highf flying, you know what I mean? Fast possessions, highf flying. And the last few years when they have not been able to be explo explosive, they grind the games to a halt to where to where right which is what they did against Baltimore in the AFC Championship game, which is what they they they force a game to be played on their terms, which makes them almost unblowable. when they did get blown out in the Super Bowl, it was not because the defense fell apart. That was on the offense and Patrick mistakes and they and those things. And so I just it’s why the Chiefs are so and I know it’s weird to say it one and two, but hard to beat because they can play as poorly as imaginable against a really good team like the Chargers in week one and be a third and 14 stop away from have a chance to steal the game. They can play as poorly as they did for the first half in Philadelphia in week two and still be right there on the precipice of taking the lead. And the flip side is a team like Baltimore that can play so great for 55 minutes up and then invent a loss. And so that’s the difference to me from like a football fun character of these two teams. So I think a blowout is an impossibility. I think a blowout is an impossibility. And we go three straight 0% chancers. Well, you I mean last week you you were trying to sell me the bill of goods that the Russell Wilson might outplay Patrick Mahomes and he lost he he lost his job because of how he played. That’s what happened. That is true. I am just surprised in your faith in this year’s Chiefs offense because you I I hear a lot of championship pedigree what they’ve done in the playoffs in years past and maybe with Worthy back and eventually Rasheed Rice back cuz I absolutely trust Mahomes and Andy Reid to figure it out in the long run in the aggregate. I just have not seen their offense, their running game, the left side of their offensive line, their big play ability. I have not seen this Chief’s offense look good, right? And no, you’ve seen them, this is, and this is the fundamental breakdown. You’ve seen them look mediocre and it’s enough to panic. All you’ve seen the Ravens defense be is the worst in football and it’s like, ah, who cares? But their offense has been the best, right? So the Right. And neither part of the Chiefs have been No, but the No, they have been a good defense and a mediocre offense is what they’ve been. And the Ravens defense was bad against the Bills and the Lions who are going to be two top five offenses. And the Ravens defense was also not good against the Browns when the Browns threw for more yards, ran for more yards, had the ball longer, got more third downs. They they the Browns are the Browns and got them pump blocked and fumbled and turned it over. All those things. I the I am not arguing that this Chief’s offense is elite or is going to be elite just by getting Xavier Worthy back. What I am arguing is that to act as if they have been awful is backed up by nothing. And to ignore the fact that Baltimore has been is bananas to me. And it is and it is not just you. It has been shocking this week to see the pretzels people are twisting themselves into. To explain why the 1 and2 Baltimore Ravens, who have never won anything are, oh, worrying about them would be crazy. And the one and two Kansas City Chiefs who have won everything that they that it’s panic time. The only team to have this type of run of success is the Patriots from 11 to 18 when they made eight straight conference championship games. Four of those eight years, the Patriots started 2-2. Like maybe it’s not that weird for a team in the midst of this to have a rough September, even though it’s weird for the Chiefs. And so now we’re asking these weird questions like, can Mahomes outplay Lamar? He literally has every time they’ve played. Can the Chiefs win in a shootout? They’ve won more of those than any team in the league over the last decade. Now, they haven’t for three weeks. That is true. They haven’t been in shootouts in a couple years. Oh, the AC championship game against a pretty good team. They They won a shootout. They won 3229 to go to their third straight Super Bowl, but that was five games. That’s a long time. Five games. That’s a long time. All right. That’s That’s 2-1 me. 2-1 you. The game hasn’t happened yet. It doesn’t. Everybody knows. Wow. Thanks for watching. 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The 1-2 Kansas City Chiefs face off with the 1-2 Baltimore Ravens this Sunday. Nick Wright, Chris Broussard, Kevin Wildes, and Danny Parkins discuss if the Chiefs need to win more than the Ravens, and if the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense needs to impress. Plus, Nick and Danny argue if the Chiefs can win a potential shootout versus the Ravens.

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Chiefs ‘objectively’ need to beat Ravens more, Can they win a shootout? | FIRST THINGS FIRST
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