Fred VanVleet OUT for the year (TORN ACL); are the Houston Rockets STILL an NBA title contender?!

Fred VanVleet OUT for the year (TORN ACL); are the Houston Rockets STILL an NBA title contender?!

We do have one piece of news that we still have to do. Okay. But it fits perfectly into Yep. the first team that we’re excited to talk about. So the theme of this episode is the teams we’re most excited to watch in the 202526 NBA season. And as usual, for the last three years running, the team I’m most excited to watch is the Houston Rockets because of course it is. They were not going to be number one on my list this cycle up until the news came this week that Fred Van Vleet according to Shams Shirania has suffered a torn ACL. Shams did not say that he’s going to miss the whole season which makes me like I don’t know like he’s saying potentially season ending for the Rockets. like there are some weird terms and phrases going here. I’m assuming that if it’s torn ACL he’s out for the year. I think that that should probably be the working assumption now moving forward. Yeah, this is obviously a massive loss for the Houston Rockets. And the reason that this is a massive loss is twofold. So, a Fred Van Vleet has been awesome at limiting turnovers for the Houston Rockets the last couple of years. Uh, anybody that watched the Houston Rockets like prior to Fred getting there over the course of the last like year or so or two years will tell you, “Holy this team turned the ball over like crazy. It is insane.” I get that it was the Steven Silus era, but oh my god, like what was going on? Last year they were sixth in turnover percentage. The year before with Fred as a team, they were fifth in turnover percentage. In 2022 23, they were 29th in turnover percentage offensively. In 2021-22, they were 30th in turnover percentage offensively. The level to which Fred came and steadied the ship for all these young dudes cannot be overstated. It truly can’t be. He was massive. Just getting them in and out of sets, being able to make sure that they’re running the right things and getting shots in the right areas, right? So, that’s number one. Number two, this is a team that like outside of Kevin Durant doesn’t have a ton of pull-up gravity unless Reed Shepard is just ready to go, right? And maybe he is. Reed looks like much stronger now than what he did last season. He already looks like he’s put on a good amount of weight. It’s possible Reed’s ready, but Fred Vanley does have real pull-up gravity. And you can say, you know, Fred did not shoot super well last year, and I understand that case, but teams still guard him out there, and they still treat him like he is a pull-up shooter. Over his time in Houston, he is knocked down 37% on eight three-point attempts per game. Fred absolutely gets guarded from beyond the three-point line. He gets treated like somebody where if you go under his ball screen, you’re in a little bit of trouble. So, losing those two things, I think, is massive for their offense. And defensively, Fred has been awesome at the point of attack. He’s been really important, I think, for Alpen Shenun’s growth on defense. Jangun has gotten like much much better on defense. I think in large part because guys have gotten or the team around him has gotten better at getting over the top of screens and Fred is really really good at getting over the top of screens, navigating screening actions, making life easier for the big behind him. Uh again, anybody that watched the 2022 23 Rockets will tell you how messy it was when Fred was out on defense or or when Fred was not there yet on defense. And even in the games that Fred missed over the course of the last two seasons, particularly in 2023 24, I thought last year was a little bit better cuz Fred did miss 20 games last year, but like there was a stark difference in terms of how well they played defensively when Fred was in versus out and how capable it felt like they were. So, it’s just a totally like confident, steadying presence to me in terms of what they’re losing with Fred Banley. Yeah. And to build off of that, when you look through the roster, who’s the like just, hey, this is a real like this is the point guard that we’re going to play. Like we both believe a men Thompson can play with the ball in his hand, but it it’s not like we wouldn’t classify him as a point guard. Reed can play with the ball in his hands. Abs. We’re going to talk about that, Bryce. No, no. I mean, I think it that this I don’t know if you’ve been We’ll talk about it. Reed, you know, like I I think obviously can play with the ball in his hands, but is he like that type of point guard, you can run your offense through Shingon, but is like there’s just not that player where you go, okay, like this guy is the person that dribbles it up and organizes the offense and all of that. And then the other thing, you know, on the recent episode, I said that Amen Thompson was the most one of the most interesting players this season and the Rockets and part of it was like third leading scoreer stuff. You know, obviously KD is probably going to be their leading scoreer. Goon’s going to be number two. Who’s going to be the number three guy? And Fred was going to be, you know, at least that guy on some nights. And in the playoffs last year, he was their second leading scoreer. And so it just truly is a a team that I think you were already looking at even with the addition of a Kevin Durant. Where does the rest of the scoring kind of round out? I’m not saying they don’t have the guys to do it. It’s just he was like a very steady presence and a very steady option to do so. And then when you look at like I’ve had people pitch to me potential options of replacing Fred and some of those are like okay yeah the scoring aspect would be there but the defense just isn’t even close or so like can we talk about the replacement thing? Yeah sure because they are so close up against the first apron and they are hardcapped at the first apron which means they cannot go over. The reason that they are hardcapped is because they use their mid-level exception to sign Dorian Finny Smith, which automatically hardcaps you at the first apron. So, by doing that, they now only have like 1 million to play with. I think it is like one to 1.5. Yeah. 1 1.25. Yeah.$1.25 million to be able to play with against the first apron. So they can’t even like sign a veteran for the minimum right now or else they go over that first apron. You could in theory make deals like you could make trades if you want to in order to do that. I’ve seen some people suggest like certain trades and they’re involving, you know, players that aren’t even eligible to be traded right now. And I’m like, so real quick, Sam, I’ll just go through Kevin Durant, Shenon, Sheepard, Thompson, Een. Those are literally the only players that could be traded right now until December 15th. I don’t think that they’re moving any of those guys. Correct. Point blank. And obviously Jabari can’t be traded until next off seasonason, July 1st. Uh he can be, but he has a poison pill, I believe. Oh, so okay. Spotra just has it as a straight trade restriction. Interesting. It is it is a restriction. It’s like a poison pill on the pension where like it counts. You know, his outgoing salary would be the amount that he has um in the future. his incoming salary would only be like whatever he makes this year which is what 12 million or so. So it’d be really hard to do a deal with Javari. In fairness to Spot Track if you click on his name it says the restriction is the poison pill. So I apologize. My bad. So but regardless like I think the point here is that they’re not doing any of this. You know what I mean? Like they’re not making moves here. They’re not going to make you know trades or signings. I don’t think I think they’re going to rock early in the season with a man Thompson and Reed Shepard and see what it is. And I kind of love it. I’m going to be honest. Like I am really excited to see what a man Thompson can do on the ball because look with Fred around I just don’t know if we would have ever learned what a men’s ceiling is on the ball. I think that we’re at least going to get an indication of that this year. Now, yeah. Is it possible that he can do some like Russell Westbrook like imitation? Like, is that is that a real thing for Amen Thompson? I’m not sitting here saying that it is or it isn’t, but I want to find out. I know that. And I I think he’s capable of more than what we’ve seen from him so far where he’s been like this Swiss Army knife kind of doing every single thing possible for this team being, you know, in my opinion the best defender in the NBA last season. Unbelievable finisher off the ball. Uh you know, incredible passer and playmaker in transition. Great in short roles. You know, attacks close outs when they come too heavily. is so good at doing every single little thing. And then occasionally he does play on the ball for sure for them. Like I don’t want to sit here and say he hasn’t gotten those reps. He’s gotten some reps playing on the ball for the Rockets, but this is going to we’re going to find out what a men Thompson is. And I could not be more excited to learn that. I think I I think to your point I I do see a world where he can do some of the Russell Westbrookie type things. I know that’s a big shoes to put him in, you know, with what West Westbrook did and the numbers he put up. I think my question is still and and maybe this would be answered. Maybe people’s answer will be, well, you play through KD, you play through Shingun, but especially when you get into certain games in the regular season and definitely into the playoffs, is a men going to be able to slow himself down and run the offense and get people in the right spots and execute and make sure KD’s catching here and and all of that. And maybe he can, right? I I think the idea of them playing fast and a men pushing pace and the ball in his hands more is all fine. And I think I would even listen to like, hey, he’s running ball screens with Shingun and playing with nuance. And I I believe all of that is in a men’s game. That’s why I liked him quite frankly more than Assar in that draft was I just, you know, yeah, a men just so showed so much more on the ball than than Assar did with OT. It it just would be like the composure aspect and the organization of the team aspect and those type of things. Is he going to be able to do that in year three and really his first year in the NBA trying to take that type of role on the ball? So, I’m for it. I’m here for what it’s worth. I divided my list into Eastern Conference and Western Conference, and Houston was my number one Western Conference team. Yeah, I I am truly intrigued to see what this looks like. Here’s the other thing, too, by the way. If Amen is now running the show, right, if that’s the I think that has to be the plan to start the year is that he plays point, right? Maybe it’s Reed if Reed just comes out and like blows the doors off the place in preeason. But I think it’s more likely to be a men at this point. Yeah. What are the impacts on your defense? because I don’t think a men can be the best defender in the NBA while also being the guy who’s like running point for you and kind of learning the point guard position a little bit on the fly. Not, you know, not fully learning it. He came up as a point guard, but it’s just different in the NBA doing it possession by possession literally every single night, right? And on top of that, like here’s the other thing about this too. Like look at pace of play, right? the Houston Rockets, you know, they by and large played at like the 18th pace in the NBA last season. I wonder, you know, they were like slightly below average. The best way to get the most out of a men is to play a little bit more uptempo, right? But, you know, you have KD, you have Shangun, you might not want to do that. So, what does that look like? That’s why this is now just like a completely fascinating team to me and I love it. And like for the third straight season in a row, they’re the team I’m most interested in watching. But I I think that what I’m trying to determine is all of the followon effects from what a men playing point guard brings. Unless Reed just immediately steps up and it’s like oh no re reads the point like we got this and I don’t know if that’s going to happen in year two. So is like is the answer to that question then like you insert Tari E into the starting lineup and try to allow him to be the best defender on your team while a men is running the show on offense and take some of the load off of him. You know, I’ve been trying to figure out who I think starts, right? So, I think it’s going to be very clearly Amen, Shangun, and KD. And then I think Jabari would be my guess. And I’m I mean, you don’t have enough ball handling on the court in my opinion if you do this. But I just don’t know where you get the ball handling anyway. I think I would want Finny Smith shooting. Sure. Yeah. Like I, you know, all due respect to Tari, who has really improved as a shooter, I don’t think Tari E like truly gets guarded all that much as a shooter. And you know, in three years he’s made 34.5% of his threes. Like he’s not a pure catastrophe as a shooter. But I do think Dorian Finny Smith like gets guarded in those ways. And you’re going to be running a lot of your actions anyway through like the threeman, you know, triang triumpvirvirate of Shangun, a men and KD anyway. So like having Jabari and Dorian Finny Smith is like your spot shooters kind of and then having Jabari be able to cut back door and you know you can run different like kind of Spain actions with Jabari and things like that. I think that that kind of tracks for me as what I would look at. But, you know, again, like I I think this is something that will just be borne out in training camp. Like, we’re going to see what happens. Yeah. And I think what would be interesting, you brought up like the transition in terms of how much does KD want to play at that pace? How much do you want to play Shenon at that pace? You know, maybe there’s a world where you then you know roll this into um you know the second unit quote unquote and Tar’s out running with a men in in the second unit as opposed to you know Finny Smith kind of maybe you’re playing a little bit slower pace with Finny Smith in the starting lineup. I I don’t know. You’re right there. I hadn’t fully thought about the trickle down effect of the role allocation it meant for everybody else on the roster beyond just like I immediately went to a men and read. But it is interesting now like who gets a spot in the starting lineup and pace of play and all of these different things because again like you said if you’re going to play with the ball in a men’s h hands this much I think you would be crazy not to push pace whenever you get a chance to. I mean, I am also just gonna say this gets so much easier if Reed is ready. Yeah. Like, and look, like Reed’s games last year where he played real minutes at the end of the year, and look, I don’t love end of year stuff. I think I’ve made that clear. But even in the games where he played like 20 plus minutes, right? on February 4th, he played 28 minutes, went 514 from the field, had 16 points, seven rebounds, like wasn’t a catastrophe, right? They lost to Brooklyn, but you know, wasn’t like Reed’s fault that they lost uh against Oklahoma City on March 3rd, 25 points, five assists, two rebounds on 10 of 17 from the field. last couple games of the year against the Clippers and Lakers, 20 points, five rebounds, four assists on seven of 14 from the field. Uh against the Lakers, I think two nights later, 14 points, five assists, five of 14 from the field. Right. Those are I think the only games he played one other game last season where he had over 20 minutes. So he literally only played five games last year where he had a where he played over 20 minutes. In five of his six games where he played at least 19 minutes, he had at least 12 points and it wasn’t like a pure offensive mess. Right. If he’s stronger now, if he can play defense at a little bit higher of a level, I don’t know. Like maybe it’s not right. Like maybe maybe maybe this works and Reed’s ready to go honestly. Yeah. I mean slotting him into that starting role like you can sell me on it. Like it it makes sense. I would understand that. It just really comes down to whether or not he’s ready for that role and to take it on. Yeah. And maybe he is, maybe he isn’t. Again, this is like a pure training camp battle thing to me where we’re trying to figure out what Reed is. We’re trying to figure out, you know, is it Dorian Finny Smith? Is it Tari E? Like what are we doing in the starting lineup? Um, a lot to play out there, but I’m I’m really excited now to like see how this plays out because this team should be great and we now have questions. And maybe also it’s it’s a game by-game basis. You know, maybe you have those four of some capacity, maybe even the three, and if there’s a game where it’s a smaller backcourt and you feel like you can play Reed and there’s a good defensive matchup for him, you play him. I would guess that some Rockets fans are probably yelling at us for not even throwing out the double big lineup. Um, I don’t think they can do that a lot because Stephen Adams I don’t think they can start that lineup. Yes. And I don’t think Stephen Adams is going to play, you know, minutes wise, games wise or whatever, but you know, if there are certain games where you’re going to play, you know, a double big lineup or something and you feel like it gives you your best advantage, maybe there’s five or six games throughout the year where they go to that with Shenon and Steven Adams and, you know, maybe there is a game where Tari is that guy. I just again this is a situation where the roster is really exciting but you know it puts a lot on Eay and his staff to make the right decisions in terms of rotations and all of that. Well, and here’s the other question I have too, right? And look, like the Alper and Shenun, Steven Adams lineup, you know, it was like 50/50 whether or not they played with Fred or without Fred, right? But kind of the whole deal of that lineup, right, is that you’re trying to win the possession battle, the two big lineup, right? You’re trying to crush the offensive glass. Well, if you’re losing the turnover battle because you don’t have a lot of spacing out there, guys are driving into nowhere, things like that, does it reduce the efficacy of that lineup a little bit as well? So, I don’t know. I I have some Obviously, I think there are questions here in terms of how this all plays out. Uh just in general, I do want to note though that there was no real difference last year in terms of production uh in success rate. if Stephen Adams and Alprin Shenun were on the court, if Van Vleet was on or off. So maybe it doesn’t matter as much as I’m thinking, but you know, who knows? Maybe we’re just going to keep learning that the Rockets are so big and long and athletic that they’re going to be able to just absolutely bludgeon people and it doesn’t matter. Yeah. The one thing that I will finish on there though before I let you finish is just um I think that this does make that big lineup even more important now and that lineup continuing to have success even more vital for the Rocket success. No, I just say they they they still have options to go to, right? Like you have some different lineups you can still work in and um I think that’s why they’re one of the most exciting teams to watch, you know, like that’s why they’re we’re leading off with them. Yeah, agree.

Sam Vecenie, a Senior NBA Writer at The Athletic, talks all about basketball. From the NBA, to the NBA Draft, to college hoops and even some high school, Vecenie has you covered in this show.

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