Bills vs. Patriots First Look: Is Drake Maye’s hot start legit + Can Joe Brady exploit NE weakness?
All right, what’s up everybody? Welcome into Shouty Buffalo Football Podcast. It is one of my favorite first looks of the season. It’s Patriots Bills week going to Boston. The Boston Herald. Andrew Callahan kind enough to give us a couple minutes to kind of sink our teeth into this matchup. And first of all, Andrew, how are you? Good, man. You you just saw finished 80minute podcast Monday nights with Mike Gerardy. We get into all the stats and the film with a breakdown and the Patriots for the first time in almost four years. I know you’re accustomed to this now. Won by 29 points. That is something I’ve not seen since almost I had hair. So, it was fun. But after watching all that film and spending the time in the podcast, I do have a bourbon here. So, this is not a common thing. I just want to let the folks know who are watching that this is a special occasion bourbon. So, here we are. I love it. Lucy Goosey, Andrew Callahan on the pod. I love it very much. And is going to be a fun week to dive into this matchup. And it it, you know, so far I feel like everybody is who I thought they were going into the season. I thought the Patriots were the second best team in this division. And I think the the the range of outcomes probably was going to depend on the secondyear leap by Drake May. And through four games, he’s looked the part. I mean, if you go back to last season and the year that Jaden Daniels had, I think everybody expected him to come out in year two, pick up where he left off. But for my money, Drake May’s been the best secondyear quarterback in the NFL. From your perspective, what’s going right? And with the Bills now on the road, Sunday Night Football, what concerns do you have, if any, after what’s been a largely really successful start? So, you have to start around Drake to explain what’s going on with him. um their offensive tackles are both better and that’s even with a 21-year-old rookie in Will Campbell at left tackle and Morgan Moses who’s 34 at right tackle because their starter last year Varian Low is now a backup. So when you can better protect the quarterback, obviously he’s going to play better out wide. Old pal Steph Diggs is here. Finally had a hundred yard game and he’s by no means the player that you guys last saw in Buffalo, even in the last half of that last season that he had, which we know wasn’t um fantastic, but it’s still better than what they’ve had here in New England. And what else is improved is their offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, is employing more play action, more motion. thinks the Patriots are in the bottom of the league last year with Alex Vampel who had no talent really to work with but also wasn’t reaching for the lowhanging fruit that you’re going hey there there’s easy yards to be had here things to make it easier in a quarterback and so when you have all those things around Drake he feels a little calmer he’s got more command and obviously the talent is there but the thing that you’ve seen already in the first four weeks start to kind of smooth out and iron out with him is this sense of I have to do more or create more and extend plays and sometimes as you guys saw with Josh develop that’s a really good thing. Other times it’s like, “Oh my god, you just gave the game away.” He hasn’t given many games away, but he has had bad plays in the second half that could have swung things. And so to me, it’ll be really interesting. Pressure- packed Sunday night across from the guy that he compared himself to as a prospect. You know, they’re underdog shirt, but they feel great after that win over Carolina. Do you get the Drake who wants to make every play as big as possible or the guy who’s been disciplined with a better offensive coordinator and better plans that’s kept them efficient and moving the ball downfield? You know, I the way this script of this game plays out in my head is the Bills do what they’ve done through four weeks and that has really established what’s been the league’s best run game uh against a team that, you know, I think they’re hoping they can run on. I mean, and you can kind of get into the X’s and O’s of how they could do that. I heard you talking about it on your podcast a little while ago, but the one game that I wanted to dive into quickly from Drake was against Pittsburgh where I thought he played really well. I thought the Patriots probably should have won that game. It was the turnovers that really felt like did them in. And against the Bills that kind of could throw everything off its axis because the Bills went I think it was 25 straight games uh and they’re still on that run without losing the turnover differential battle. So, what happened in that game? And is that the kind of thing that maybe if we’re talking about concerns in this game, that’s where you really land? Yeah, for sure. I mean, they had no turnovers in Carolina, but there’s not a single fan in New England that feels good when Roandre Stevenson is holding the ball close to his belly because there’s a good chance. And this happened in Buffalo last year. He gets popped out and they and they lose it. He had some fumbles last season. He had two against Pittsburgh. Antonio Gibson had a fumble. Drake May had a fumble. Oh, and then Drake May threw a pick inside the five yard line. So when one of Stevenson’s fumbles comes at the one yard line plus that pick, you’re going that’s at least six points, maybe 14 that you gave away. And some of that is you sometime if it’s just like September football, right? Like wacky things happen and we can’t explain it and you get a bigger sample size and teams declare who they are, good or bad. And the Patriots, we don’t know yet whether they’re good or they’re bad. So look, I could see a a smart opportunistic Bills defense taking advantage of that. I could see, you know, the Patriots protecting the ball, but maybe not moving it the way that they want to. The thing that’ll matter, of course, is what do you do in the high lever situations, third downs, and that to me is a really interesting piece with Drake because his worst mistakes have come in the second half. I described it to kind of feeling a pressure and a willingness and an eagerness to do more. Josh McDaniels, when I asked him, to be fair, disagreed, said he didn’t see anything different in the second half. But look, if it’s a close game, you know, it comes down to the quarterbacks and obviously you feel much better about Josh Allen, Drake May. Um, but there’s a give and take there, right? With the creativity and the playmaking, you can get burned or you can go big. And that I think more than Stephvenson, even though he could fumble and it could be a Bills blowout, um, is what this game could come down to if it’s close late in the fourth quarter. The third down battle is going to be so important to watch because this is a Bills defense that has when played playing good offenses this this season has not been good on third down and especially the third and long which I think like as Drake May’s confidence level grows get him on in week five in a big time spot you know maybe you test things a little bit this is a quarterback group that has kind of been hit or miss I’ve actually been surprised at the drop off at least through the first quarter of the season from Christian Benford who played I thought at an allp pro level last season. You you think about Stefon Diggs and Kahan Booty on the outside. You think about the tight ends in this game. I mean, when the Bills defense has struggled over the last couple of years, I feel like it’s it’s a lot of time come in matchups against teams that have two really good tight ends. And I think Hooper and Henry have been playing really well. Yeah, they have. and Hooper, you know, in their their second drive against Carolina has this 24 yard tight end screen, rumbles downfield, but later in the drive have his two best plays of the game, which were downfield blocks on a jet sweep and then a fake jet sweep with just a regular handoff going the other way. And that led to explosive play. So, the Patriots want to play because they’ve been about 40% in those two tight end packages, right? 12 personnel. And, you know, they’re among the league leaders in that. So that’s where they want to play because it also establishes a balance between run and pass when they can run the ball which to be clear has only really happened in about a game game and a half so far this season. If they can’t run the ball, obviously it’s a totally different game. But it’s really interesting to me, too, because I do think, as you mentioned, there are opportunities playing this Bills defense that historically maybe there haven’t been. And especially when you’re Josh McDaniels, because this is my favorite Pats Bill stat. Since Shawn McDermott was hired, Patriots quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions against the Bills than they have touchdowns. And that even includes Tom Brady in his last three years with McDaniels and then got Cam Newton and M. Jones. So, how do they want to attack? Can they attack somewhere different? And then when it comes down to the third down, it’s not only just protecting the ball and who’s on the field. What’s the play call? Because so far, and I know the Bills have defense, different defensive coordinators, they’ve had the upper hand there. Before we That was a great stat before we flip over to the defense because I do want to spend a minute on that. I think it’ll be really interesting matchups across the board. I I really like Gonzalez and and got want an update on where he’s at. Stefon Diggs, you mentioned our old friend. Um, honestly, for my money, one of the most interesting covers of my career as a journalist because he keeps you on your toes. It’s always a story with him no matter what. Sometimes it’s hard to get that story, but how have things gone uh in that department? I obviously I I from the outside looking in, I I saw the uh press conference that he held, I think a little bit over a week ago. Um, what’s the Stefon Diggs experience been like? Yeah, it’s, you know, interesting, which I always joke is like the thing you say when you have nothing else to say, right? You know, like, how do you like your sister’s new boyfriend? Oh, he’s he’s nice. He’s interesting. He brushes his teeth, I guess, and pays his bills. Like, you know, it’s just been hard to read, right? Because we’re accustomed to New England because of the spotlight and the success and just the volume. Like, the Patriots have sucked more or less the last five years, but our our beat our media presence is still 40 to 50 deep when you include all the TV reporters and all this different stuff. So players are expected to talk to the media and I understand this in the grand scheme of things for people listening you don’t care about but just listen hear me out. Steph D talked day one of training camp and unlike every other player on the roster who was available upon request or otherwise spoke several times to the rest of training camp. He did not speak once and I kind of had a back and forth with PR about this being like those aren’t the rules. I didn’t make the rules but we’re sure going to enforce them. We reach middle ground of saying okay it won’t be a big deal. He speaks for the most part during the regular season. Doesn’t have a big impact. His quarterback is saying, “I need to get the ball to Steph Diggs more.” Says it two weeks in a row. Josh McDaniel says, “I’ve never heard Steph Diggs call for the ball.” Diggs says, “I’m just going to eat what’s on my plate.” Which he says is his own saying, but we know because we talked to his position coach. It’s actually Todd Downing saying, and then finally Drake gets him the ball and he has his 100 yard game. So, I don’t really know what’s going to come next. I am a little skeptical about it all being hunky dory behind the scenes, but the bottom line is, as you know, as long as you’re producing and there’s a chemistry, everything else kind of gets either looked the other way or passed over. So, it’s improved on the field. It’s obviously there’s a whole boat incident with this, you know, pink powder back in May and Rabel handled that. But, I think, look, if you’re in Buffalo and you watched him play and you’ve read your Matt stories and listen to the podcast, like you kind of know and I think in New England, we’re getting a little bit of the taste of that right now. Yeah. And it’s it’s confusing because off to the side he was always really good. Like I I’d have interactions with him. I’d talk to him, but he would literally go a month, month and a half and just say, “Not not today. Not today. Not going to talk today.” And it’s it it kind of flies in the face of some of the accountability talking points that he’s had when he’s talking to the media. So it it’s an interesting dynamic. It might be a one and done. We’ll see how that thing works out. But I want to get to this Bills offense versus the Patriots defense. Before I do, right now it is the rush to the Tops red zone. Win the GOAT, the greatest of all tailgates right now in the Tops red zone raffle. Shop from over 25 fan favorite brands and get unlimited savings when you purchase big-time brands like Coca-Cola, Hines, Kings Hawaiian, and more. Visit topsmarkets.com/redzone for more details. All right, let’s start up up up the middle. You know, the Bills are going to want to run the ball. James Cook leading the NFL in touchdowns. They’re getting him the ball. He played 73% of the snaps this past game. I don’t expect that to be the case on Sunday Night Football. And in fact, talking to Joe Brady today, he put it on himself. I got to get Ray Davis more involved. And when they were at their best last year, all three of these guys were, you know, at least having a fingerprint on a game in the middle. Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, now one of, for my money, the best duos on the interior in the NFL. What’s it look like through four games? And how have they been against the run? They’ve been they’ve been all right. And it’s interesting because, you know, Milton Williams is a player known for his pass rush in Philadelphia, right? And the Patriots give him $104 million because how good he was against the pass rush. But now he’s playing for the first time more than 50% of the snaps. He’s been impactful. They’ve rotated though with some younger players and had good production there. The issue has been at the second level where they miss tackles left and right. And some of this, you know, my job is to figure out is this September noise again? weird football stuff that just takes more time to iron out or is this a bug in the system that they’re just never going to be able to get out? And last week against Carolina whose offense is really just a JV unit. Um they only had seven missed tackles and so Robert Splain’s been better behind them. You know, Mil Williams and Christian Barnmore have each had a couple of run stuffs so far this season and they’re getting penetration. The issue though, and you know, you know, I’ve seen Joe Brady maybe a couple of times at the combine when you and I are out. That’s about it. But I can tell you I know his game plan is going to involve a lot of running to the left. And it’s partly because Deion Dawkins is as good as he is. But it’s also because Kalon Chaison, who’s another pass rush first player, and behind him Keon White, another pass rush first player, are not very good against the run. And if the Panthers can average 4.7 yards a carry just going left, the Bills are going to look at that number and go, maybe we can double it. And I would say you might be able to, but it’ll depend on the tackling and how the Patriots adjust. So in the middle, they’ve been good. But to me, if you’re looking at the edge, that’s a battleground that I could kind of swing the war of the Patriots offense or excuse me, defense versus the Bills offense. I can ask you this because you do grind the tape so hard in the first four games from a package perspective? I’m not super familiar with any of the teams outside of I believe Miami. Have the Patriots faced a team that goes 13 even close to as much as the Bills have this year, which I think usage wise they were somewhere around top five last time I checked. I didn’t check this week yet. Yeah, Pittsburgh. Um, and and and that’s probably it, right? Like I’m with you. I’ve not seen many more teams other than the ones that have played the team that I covered, but they were familiar obviously with the Steelers because Arthur Smith was very offensive coordinator in Tennessee and they’ve got John Smith and Pat Frymouth and all these guys, but they settled down and figured them out pretty quickly. Obviously old ass Aaron Rogers very different than Josh Allen and a prime rating MVP. But the point is, you know, they’ll know personnel wise where they want to play more three- corner nickel than base and how to adjust their fronts to account for that because they just did this two weeks ago. Christian Gonzalez is back uh working into game shape. Where’s he at? How did he look in his debut last week? Yeah, it was interesting because you know he played it’s either 43 or 49. I think it was 49 snaps on defense in his first game back. And you know, I had said I I think he should play a lot because he took off basically eight weeks from when he got hurt in late July at a training camp practice until he returned to practice before week three and declared after that game when he didn’t play against the Steelers. Oh, I could have played I was upset that I didn’t. Like you had three practices and they they weren’t even really patted. Um but then he practices last week and he goes full go. I think it’ll be full go against the Bills and he was fine. Like he gave up two catches for 31 yards to T McMillan who’s a good player. Didn’t look like his dominant self. They parked him on the right side um of the defense or the left of the offense and they just played sides. You know, he might shadow in future matchups. I’m not sure he’ll do that here against Buffalo, but he’s been good. And it’s just there’s been something a miss with his recovery which is now behind them. But you know that that’s a player who’s a tenth pole player. You can build a whole game plan around. And I’m not sure whether the Patriots are ready to do that yet. But as far as we can tell now, they’re definitely ready to play him every single snap. And I I think he’ll only get better in the next couple of weeks. It’s going to be a fun game. I promise 15 minutes. We’re not going to keep you anymore. You’ve been talking all night long. Go enjoy that the rest of that drink. But before you go, let everybody know where they can kind of keep it locked in all week to keep your uh to take a look at your coverage from the other side. Sure, man. Appreciate you. Uh it’s_andrew Calahan. C A L L A H. That’s on X Twitter. Uh Blue Sky is I think just Andrew Callahan. I think I got in early enough to get that one. And then, you know, if you’re on YouTube, all the podcast episodes and breakdowns and we’ll talk about the Bills later this week, X’s and O’s and personnel and all this different stuff. That’s also_calian. Great stuff, man.
The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots in a massive Sunday Night Football divisional showdown this week. Matt Parrino is headed to Boston for an early look at the Patriots with Boston Herald Patriots beat reporter Andrew Callahan.
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