BIG Year coming for Charlotte Hornets’ Brandon Miller

BIG Year coming for Charlotte Hornets’ Brandon Miller

All right, let’s move on to my next one. Same draft class. Uh number two overall pick, Brandon Miller, uh of the Charlotte Hornets. I my biggest thing for him is stay healthy. Um and same with the rest of that team because Miller obviously missed almost the vast majority of last year. Um and what’s more troubling to me is that him and LaMelo Ball have only played in 39 games together over the last two years and incredible 827 minutes together. in two seasons. Um, that’s almost nothing. But the team’s net rating jumped from minus 5.5 to plus 0.5 with those two on the floor. Miller shown a lot of really fun stuff. A lot of inconsistencies though. Just has to stay healthy in my eyes. Yeah, I think you got to stay healthy and um, you know, injuries always stink that as a sophomore. I always like to say sophomore um because after a big fresh freshman year. I’m now I’m stuck on this. Um, now after a strong rookie year, you know, you finished third in rookie of the year vote. Hornets fans probably feel a certain way about that. But after that, then you all of a sudden you’re like, “Okay, second year he’s going to explode.” And then when you get hurt, you’re like, “Okay, what’s this shaping up for for year three?” Then Charlotte’s tough because I I think we’re also like he was fantastic before. You look at his numbers, you might be like, “Oh, they weren’t as efficient as I thought.” But I also think he had to do a lot of the carrying. Um I think he’s gonna have a monster year. Yeah, I I really do. I think they got a better roster around. They got some really good pieces to help Brandon Miller. I know we’re putting expectations on rookies, but I know Coniple and Liam McNeely can shoot. So Brandon Miller should have some some bigger lanes to to attack when they’re on the floor together. And then LaMelo, like you know, you don’t have to like him, but it’s still LMO ball. still one of the best point guards, playmakers in the league. Yeah. And the one of the big things that stood out to me with Miller Miller’s, you know, season over season development was obviously the the three-point attempts or three-point percentage fell from like 37 12 to 35 and a half%. Never ideal when you have a wing whose main thing is his shooting. Uh but then you look at the attempts and they jumped from uh 6.7 a game as a rookie to 10.9 a game in their second year. That’s a huge jump. That’s almost doubling. Um only two minutes more per game, right? That’s feeling pretty good about your rookie year at saying I’m going to shoot it. Yeah. I but and like one of the the more but then you’re like all right. So is he just spotting up more? Is he just taking a lot like worse off the dribble shots? And when you look at NBA stats and like their tracking data, it’s not all that dissimilar year-over-year. But what really changed was that they was his uh possessions where they ran him off screens, which rose from 8.3% as in his rookie year to 14.8% in his second year, which put him in the 97th percentile. Now, obviously, he only played what was it, 20 27 games, so you know, take that with a grain of salt, but with how often they incorporated movement and specifically for him and having him run off screens and putting him in motion, um, that’s really encouraging. And then not only did the offscreen frequency nearly double, but the points per possession stayed really efficient. you know, it stayed at uh rookie year was 1.047 points per possession and it went up to 1.09. So, that’s really encouraging that there wasn’t really any change in the efficiency despite the massive increase in volume. And then you try and factor in, all right, what does their offense look like with high field shooters, high, you know, really adept offball movers in Kanipple and Liam McNeely also coming in and hopefully LaMelo Ball staying healthy with his size and his playmaking and his shooting potential and how that can all open things up for really easy looks for a guy like Brandon Miller. Yeah, I mean, it’s gonna be the the three-point attempt is unbelievable. That’s a That’s a gigantic jump. One more one more turnover a game last year than the year before. But that’s understandable like because because of the usage bother me too much. No, it doesn’t bother me at all. So like because he’s still only at 2.8. Yeah. And if anything, I’m saying that’s promising because of more usage. Um Yes. Almost went up four points for usage. They found out that they got a dude and they tried to feed him last year. So, like I’m not going to go too crazy off of last year’s stats because he only played 27 games. But, but ju just to kind of piggyback off the the increase in usage and the increase in playmaking, you know, the the turnover rate went from 10.2 to 12.6. And, you know, he also averaged a whole another turnover per game. But then you look at the assist rate that jumped from 11.6 to 18.3. So I I think I think the decision-m improved and now you add and they had and that was with an unhealthy roster that was with again 27 games whatever uh unhealthy roster it was with with a team who was one of the worst shooting teams in the league last year and now you incorpor now now just try and pivot it back to all right now you have Kipple Liam McNeely also spotting up you have lamela ball also spotting up who’s playing center I have no idea we’ll figure that out later. But when you think of floor spacing and who he’s who some of these extra passes are going to, it’s tough to imagine those numbers not taking another significant jump in year three. You know, I I think the numbers, the production, the scoring are all going to be, you know, where where we want it to be. I think the biggest thing for me is I want to see I feel like when you’re a forward in a wing getting ready to take that next leap into being like, “Oh, you’re you’re a legit star in this league is I I think he needs to start learning that in between game to get fouled more, get to the line a little bit more, add about four points per game to your averages a little bit more.” Like that’s the biggest thing. Um I hate comparing last year’s just because barely played. Um, but you know, rookie year 2.3 free throw attempts a game. Last year was 2.9. Um, just like you to maybe get to four, you know, take a little nice jump there. Um, get you some easy ones. I think that’s where you will start to see guys really understand how to play the mind game with defenders, too. Like that’s where I think you’re unlocking another level of NBA understanding. And that frustratingly also factors into what one of the big red or concerns, not red flags, that feels dramatic, concerns with him coming out of Alabama was is like, oh man, this guy can’t get to the rim. He can’t finish at the rim. It’s like, well, he kind of can, but then he’s not doing it yet. And I mean, 18% of his shots came at the rim. His rookie year, 24th percentile, 16% last year, 15th percentile. And the foul drawing, like you were saying, it’s not good. 7.4% foul rate. Um, his rookie year, 51st percentile, not too bad, but that dropped to 6.6%. Um, which was the 26th percentile last year. So, it’s a big part of his game that’s missing. But again, now I’m like, all right, well, now we have more shooters on the perimeter. So, do those driving lanes open up a little more? Can you get him on the elbows and maybe the low block a little more and put him in motion so when he’s curling off those screens and you know I ran through the the offscreen frequency uh a minute ago but now 15% of his possessions are coming with him running off screens and as he’s curling into the middle those weak side defenders can’t help off of Josh Green every possession in the corner because now it’s Kan Nipple who’s gonna torch you if you leave him open and now he’s able to curl curl down a little more effectively, a little more consistently with with a little more space, get to the line, get a couple easy layups. That’s my hope at least. Yeah, completely agree.

Tyler Metcalf & Tyler Rucker breakdown why Charlotte Hornets wing Brandon Miller could be ready to break out ahead of the 2025-26 #NBA season.

Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast…
Written work: noceilingsnba.com
Twitter: @NoCeilingsNBA
YouTube: / @noceilingsnba