The Chiefs just flipped a switch and it’s actually terrifying…
So, the Chiefs offense flipped a literal switch against the Ravens, and honestly, this is just the beginning. Worthy will only further integrate into the offense. Rice is soon to return. Kelsey is healthier than ever, and combined all that with the defense playing lights out over the last three weeks. And that is a terrifying thing for the rest of the NFL. So, I’ve got to talk about that. The Jags defense playing great, albeit against pretty bad offenses and more. But first, how about those? All right, so the Chiefs take on the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Monday Night Football this upcoming week of football. It’s technically next week, but it’s still week five of the NFL season. You know what I mean? Well, they are currently three and a half point favorites in this one, even though they are on the road. For me, I do think the Chiefs should be favored even though the Jags are 3-1 and have looked pretty good so far this season. They have a new head coach and Liam Duvall Cohen, the former offensive coordinator of the Bucks and he’s done a pretty good job so far at establishing his identity into this team. The offense a little bit different here. You have Trevor Lawrence targeting tight ends more than normal and it’s been very effective. You have ETN doing his thing on the ground. There are some definite positives over there on that side of the ball, but it’s more of a defensive team, even though again, they’ve got plenty of playmakers on offense. On defense, they are currently number five, the number five scoring defense. They are fifth best at stopping teams in the red zone. They’ve allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards per game, but have allowed over 233 passing yards per game, which is currently 24th. The reason for that though, in my opinion, is because the Jags have been ahead in most of these games, and that forces opposing teams to pass the ball more and try to get points up on the board. If you compare their ranks in virtually any category from 2024 to this year through four games, the defense is absolutely better. No doubt about it. EPA per play, success rate, PFF grade, explosive plays allowed, and takeaways. More on those here in a bit. But all that to say, Jacksonville’s defense is night and day better this year compared to last. It’s safe to say this defense is definitely better as well than the one that the Chiefs just faced in the Baltimore Ravens, especially considering all the injuries they had on that side of the ball. However, the Jags haven’t faced a team as sound as the Chiefs yet. So, this should be a pretty good litmus test for them overall. And I don’t mean any disrespect either, because I got a lot of respect for them and they have some dogs on that side of the ball. You got Josh Hines Allen who was an absolute gamewrecker along the line. Trayvon Walker is second on the team in pressures, but he left last game with a wrist injury and might be questionable to play this week. We’ll see. It’s still pretty early on. Then their linebacker Devin Lloyd is playing out of his mind. He’s got three interceptions and a fumble recovery, leading the team in takeaways. He also has a couple tackles for loss, is fourth on the team in pressures with eight, and is their highest graded defender out there. So, he’s playing exceptionally well, as is their newly signed corner, Jordan Lewis. He’s the third highest graded corner that’s played 100 or more snaps per PFF. There’s also their unicorn first round pick, the cornerback, wide receiver, hybrid, and Travis Hunter, who is playing on both sides of the ball. And then they also have the former Chief Eric Murray playing well in the safety room. Something else to note about their defense is they currently lead the league in takeaways with 13. The Steelers are next on that list with 10. Meanwhile, the Chiefs only have four. However, all four of the Chiefs takeaways have happened in back-to-back games, two by two, so hopefully that keeps trending in an upward direction, please. The Jags are on another level entirely, though, having 13 takeaways through four games when they only had nine takeaways all of last year. So, again, they are playing some very good defense. But next up, I want to talk about why I’m actually not too concerned about them given the fact that a lot of these stats feel inflated because they’ve played some pretty bad offenses. And then I want to share why you guys should be pretty encouraged by the Chiefs offense flipping a switch last week. But first, I can’t wait to get out to Arrowhead this season for a Chiefs home game because there is honestly no better experience in the world. Well, that’s why I got to give the sponsor of today’s video, SeatGeek, a huge shout out because of course that’s where I get my tickets. 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That’s 10% off with promo code HBTC10 when you buy tickets on the SeatGeek app. Just make sure you click the link in the description to download the app and have the code automatically added to your account so you can use it later. Thanks again, SeatGeek. All right, so let’s get into some context here surrounding the Jags defense given who they’ve played so far. Week one, they handedly beat the Panthers. Okay, but they are currently the 26th scoring offense. Bryce Young has five touchdowns and three interceptions on the year so far. Then week two was their only loss against the Bengals, but that was the game Joe Burrow hurt his toe, had to leave the game, and Jake Browning filled in throwing three picks in that one. It was pretty gross. And their offense is currently one of the worst in the entire league in almost every single metric, including being the third worst scoring offense and averaging just 15.3 points per game. Next up, the Jags faced a better team in the Texans, winning that one by a tutty. However, it’s the Texans defense that is absolutely carrying them to what wins they do have. They’ve allowed an average of only 12.8 points per game as the number one scoring defense in the NFL. Their offense though, they are 29th in points per game, averaging 16. And then last week, the Jags did beat the 49ers by five, leading most of that game. and a team that is finding its identity on offense. Okay, the 49ers have no Iayuk right now. He’s not back. Debo is now a commander. Pieraw left the game in the third quarter. George KD is on IR and Brock Perie played through the game with turftoe. Not really looking great if I’m going to be honest. With that being said, that is one of the better offenses they’ve faced with CMC heavily involved as well being ranked the 20th scoring offense. I will also note the 49ers defense has no Nick Bosa and they could not get really any pressure at all on Trevor Lawrence. So in total the four teams that the Jags have played are some of the worst offenses in the league. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off their best offensive performance this season. Really their best offensive showing in quite some time, hanging 37 on the Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs offense is averaging 24 points per game currently. That’s 14th best in the league, but still below average for their standards. We know their issues. They haven’t had their wide receiver one, Rashi Rice, who’s been suspended. Their wide receiver two for most of the season and Xavier Worthy, though he did return last week. And then they have the least explosive run game in the entire NFL. And that is factually backed up, by the way, as Casey is currently tied for last with the Bengals in designed runs that have gone for 15 or more yards by a running back with zero. So yeah, no surprise here to us Chiefs fans regarding the rather frustrating running back room. I will say Bashard Smith is a bright spot and per Dan Graciano of ESPN, he said that Brashard Smith’s overall usage in the offense is expected to go up. Please and thank you, we need explosive juice, whatever word you want to fit in there, that’s what they need. And Bashard Smith, unless they trade for somebody, is the guy to be able to try and get some more explosive plays going. In spite of the running back room, getting Xavier Worthy back was a huge boost for their offense. And this Jags defense will certainly be a better test for this team than the Ravens were last week. I could say the same about this being a really good test for the Jags defense as well. Honestly, I cannot wait for Rushy Rice to return week seven, but they’re going to have to get through a couple more games first without him. Jags on Monday Night Football, followed by the Detroit Lions. Well, that means it’s more Xavier Worthy season who had 121 scrimmage yards last week. And I talked about Bashard Smith a moment ago, but his snaps went from around seven on average per game through the first three weeks all the way up to 19 and is only trending up from there. And then Travis Kelce and Juju Smith Schustster will need to make some great plays against this zoneheavy defense that is playing really well. I honestly think Guju has been looking great out there, back to being healthy and flying all around, as is Travis Kelce. Kelsey caught all five of his targets for 48 yards last week and is currently fourth among all tight ends in yards after the catch with 111. He also looks healthy out there. Clearly moving around quicker and more agile this season compared to last. And get this, when I said he’s fourth in yards after the catch, the three tight ends above him and Yak are all a decade or more younger. Tucker Craft is 24. Tyler Warren is 23. Brock Bowers is 22. And Travis Kelce, he’s 35 and far from washed. Also, after a slow start to the season, Mahomes is currently on pace through a 17game season for almost 4,000 yards, 30 touchdowns, and just four interceptions through the air, as well as a hilariously high 550 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. That’s not going to be sustainable. Okay, I don’t think the rushing yards will continue at the rate they did the first couple of weeks, but that was really just with no running back room and Mahomes trying to do whatever he could to help get the offense going. No explosive running back room or not, the offense is starting to trend up at just the right time. Mahomes had himself a game. Four touchdowns thrown and that’s the most touchdowns he’s thrown in quite some time. And that earned him his first AFC offensive player of the week award since 2023. The offensive line is helping with that, too. Coming together and jelling nicely. Kingsley has allowed just one pressure over the last two games. Simmons is getting more experience under his belt. Trey Smith is currently the 10th highest graded lineman in pass blocking. That’s out of all linemen, not just interior. That includes the tackles. And then Jawan Taylor, speaking of tackles, drew zero flags last week. And you really do love to see it. All this has helped Mahomes be more confident in the pocket going through his reads and even continuing to be aggressive downfield. He’s currently third in deep passing attempts with 19. And while they certainly are not all connecting, Worthy had one just last week in his first game back. And this is also going to help take pressure off of Taekquin Thornton and open him up even more who per this beautiful looking graph is getting more separation in his routes ran than any other receiver in the league. His snaps did go down last week with the return of Xavier Worthy, but his time to shine and make plays is nowhere near over. I think the Ravens defense was so banged up in the middle of the field that they saved Thornton a bit in my opinion and utilized guys like Kelsey and Guju more frequently. So don’t sleep on this Chiefs team with a hot hand. They flipped the switch with the return of worthy and I don’t really expect them to slow down. Sure, they might not hang 40 or near 40 on the Jags like they did the Ravens, but the Chiefs offense is currently seventh in EPA per play through four games, and they’ve had Rice for zero and worthy for one. All in all, I feel very good about this team right now, but I would love to get your thoughts on how you’re feeling about the offense heading into week five. I know I didn’t touch much on the Jags offense and Casey’s defense. I’ll get both sides of the ball as well as special teams because the Jags have a very dangerous returner as well. Later on, I’ll cover all that in my preview video. But this will be one of the toughest tasks Trevor Lawrence will have to face so far this season. Spags is playing lights out right now, coaching lights out right now, I should say. And this KC defense is the number two scoring D over the last three weeks. They just held the number one powered Ravens offense to 13 before Lamar Jackson ended up leaving the game. And that last touchdown came on an absolutely broken play with mainly backups in on defense. And yeah, they held the Giants to nine. Whoop-dedoo. Really, they’re not a good team. But then the defending Super Bowl champs only scored 20. I’m most impressed with last week’s performance overall given the fact that they forced two turnovers and Lamar Jackson had absolutely no answers to Spags’s game plan. Baltimore was averaging 37 points per game heading into this one and only put up 13 again with the starters and Spags and company shut that all the way down. Lamar Jackson’s hamstring injury is real by the way. He didn’t practice today and is looking doubtful to play this Sunday. And speaking of injuries, I’m sure you all know about this by now, but Tyreek Hill suffered a brutal season ending knee injury on Monday Night Football after dislocating his knee and tearing multiple ligaments, including his ACL. He had all that successfully repaired in the hospital yesterday with his agent Drew Rosenhouse saying the goal is to have Tyreek ready to play the start of next season. I do have some serious doubts about that right now given the extent of Tyreek’s injury and his age. He’ll be 32 in March. If he can return, I’m not sure he will ever look the same, but I am certainly rooting and hoping for a full recovery and wish him the best in that. Anyway, you guys got to let me know your thoughts on where you currently are at with the Chiefs offense. And given the context I just explained about the Jags defense, that is, they are playing very well given who they’ve had to play against, which is not great teams, do you think we see more fireworks from this Chief’s offense once again this week, or was that more of a fluke last week’s performance because of all the injuries that the Ravens had on defense? I don’t know. Let me know either way in the comments down below, and let’s argue about it down there. And until next time, let’s go. Let’s freaking go. How about those
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34 comments
Let me know YOUR thoughts on this high-powered Chiefs offense. Was it a turning point or nah? Then, make sure to use my code for 10% off your next SeatGeek order*: https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/HBTC10 Sponsored by SeatGeek. *Restrictions apply. Max $25 discount
Bottle up the Jags run game and don’t allow Etienne to get into a rhythm – get ahead early and force Trevor to win the game with his arm, trust the secondary to get at least one takeaway.
Final score: Chiefs 24 – 10 Jags
This will be a good test.the jags are real.protection for #15 will be critical. I say it all the time but we need that run game asap!!! Everything will flow off of that.since the dawn of the modern era play action with the run threat is going to make you a winner….period!!!
All I know is if you’re the Chiefs you can’t be like Orpheus and look back moving forward this season
Go Chiefs 🎉
Not a fluke. Chiefs offense has looked good over the last six quarters of football. Jags and Lions games will be legit tests for KC, but winnable. Can’t wait to FINALLY see the passing game in motion with Rashee Rice back. My favorite aspect about the Chiefs offense is now they are getting productivity out of a 2nd round wide receiver from the 2022 draft. Tyquan has been a huge upgrade over Skyy
13 takeaways in 4 games is actually insane
Tyreek will be a Chief next season. He will be back and if there was anyone who could afford to lose a step it is Tyreek. He is still probably the fastest guy (on the field in pads) in the NFL. Tyreek has the fastest game speed of anyone I have ever seen play the game. Do you remember when 4.33 sec 40 Mecole Hardman caught a pass inside the opponents 50, with Tyreek at least 20 yards behind him and then outran Mecole to the endzone? Tyreek is different and I wouldn't say no to a reunion. Plus, I am sure he will want to retire a Chief and we should be able to get him pretty cheap. Could you imagine a WR corps of Rice, Worthy, Tyreek, Thornton, and Royals? Even if Tyreek wasn't the same, he is still one of the best route runners in the league. That would be the sickest WR corps in the league and it wouldn't even be close.
Ngl ik not convinced we flipped a switch. Baltimore was decimated at d line. Every offense works when their qb has time to run thru progressions. Not hating just trying to be realistic
How bout those ADS & SPONSOR PLUGS
I'm pickin Chiefs to win. 27-17 with Jags scoring their final tuddy in garbage time.
Haha… the Chiefs “flipped a literal switch”… ok Cole. Love your channel bro, but you literally don’t know what the word literal means.
Before you put the cart before the horse let them play a team where their defense is actually good compared to the Ravens
They need to beat Jacksonville and Detroit before we can say there back
Guys relax, we played the ravens there defense is buns. We lost to all the good teams so far. These few upcoming games will tell us a lot.
Yo, i'll be at the December 14th game against the chargers hope to see you would be cool. GO CHIEFS!!!! Love the channel.
They looked really good but I want to see them play against a better defense before I can say anything else or make an over reaction about the offense "looking scary".
Should be a good game, it will be close but I expect the Chiefs win if they all stay healthy and out of trouble 😂. Love the chiefs!
Chiefs Kingdom ❤💛🏈
Leo Chenal deserved an extension over 32 in my opinion
NFL is getting close to getting boycotted nationally for poor decisions about wokeness… even though we love football and our team and players.. this is a more important issue long term. Will be coming out more in various podcasts and platforms.
I'm older, some of (ok a lot) the modern stat category acronyms I don't know such as EPA, more than i care to admit. EPA is Environmental Prevention Agency, right? Yac isn't an Asian cow as i confusedly thought the first time i heard it ages ago. I had enough acronyms in the military, in Desktop PC and Networks, and on the freaking news, that football needs to go slow in little words. 😂😂
Eric Murray ??! It feels like a life time ago he was on the Chiefs lol
Ravens have the 31st defense in he league? Are you seriously proud of this win ? Let’s see a couple wins before we crown the chiefs gods team
People really be putting stock in this win, against the 31st pass rush defense. 32 in points allowed, 31 in yards allowed come on guy.
Cautiously optomistic LFG
Noah need TD
One score W
Tyreek will be 100%. Football is all he has, sadly. He’s coming back to the Chiefs on a vet min deal. It’s home!
And he has not apologized or bc he only worries about himself.
Need to see if Leo Chanel wants to try being a running back
Let's see how this MNF goes, will be the real test. A dominate win would show us.
I think the run game is going to pick up this week. Just kind of get a feeling the O-Line is picking up and will be able to open the wholes more. Jaguars also look weaker against the run saw a couple big gaps when they played 49ers. If we establish the run early should make the deep ball even more scary. But at the same time I wouldn’t sleep on that D with all the ball hawks. Also, glad it’s an evening game to keep our boys out of that heat.
Cautious optimism. Chiefs 21 – Jags 20.