The Jags’ Bold Game Plan to Upset the Chiefs

The Jags’ Bold Game Plan to Upset the Chiefs

when the Chiefs have the ball going against this Jaguars defense that has been one of the best defenses in the NFL so far. Kind of carried by some turnovers, but there’s been some very much realness to it. Trayvon Walker is now injured though, uh, which must be stated because he did playing very well. What do you think? How do you think they match up against this Chiefs offense that kind of found its way a little bit last week? Yeah, Trayvon Walker, he got in he got uh surgery today and you guess he’s one of those dudes that’s built different. Uh apparently he’s day to day, but it looks like he’s going to be out this week. Um after surgery. After I’m day to day. I’m day to day. I’ll I’ll be all right. Um but that is that that is a big um that’s a big loss for them, especially against the run. Um this man like you if you I know he didn’t he didn’t play too many snaps this week against the 49ers but Trayvon Walker versus Colton Mckivitz in the run game was just it was an abomination like he destroyed by the way yeah I I I every game I watch I can’t believe that but he made him he made him look like a tight end like it it was just dragged on the tight end out there uh every single play against the run. So not so to not have that like collapsing one side of the offensive line and keeping you steady in terms of setting the edge, it’s going to be tough, but still the the whole defense has been really good in terms of uh stopping the run. I think that they’ll uh I think that they should give Kansas City still some fits as far as uh as them trying to establish uh their running game goes. Uh Kansas City is, you know, it’s it’s it’s it’s weird because they’re they’re they’re 11th in EPA per rush, right? But when you kind of filter it out for first and second down, first third and fourth down, a almost all of that positive production is coming on like third and fourth and short runs uh by Kareem Hunt. He’s one of the worst running backs in the league uh on first and second down, but he’s doing just enough on third and fourth down where he has positive EPA numbers uh for the season. They’re not explosive. Uh it’s it’s kind of like the same thing as last year. However, Jacksonville on the other side, uh, first in rushing success rate, first in 10, uh, 10 yards, uh, rushes that go for 10 yards or more. Uh, first explosive rush rate, uh, first or second in first downs per rush, fourth in yards per yards after contact per rush. So, uh, this has been a defense just kind of beating teams up front. Um, and I think even without Trayvon Walker, uh, you know, they can give Kansas City a game up front, kind of put the ball in the hands of Patrick Mahomes more, which is going to be tough because he is Patrick Mahomes and he’s been awesome this year and we saw last week that he can still take advantage of some some good situations, but I still think that Jacksonville’s defense gives them some problems up front and kind of makes Mahomes have to play a little bit more hero ball than he did last week against Baltimore. Yeah, the um the Jags defense, they’re playing confident. Like uh Devin Lloyd like looks like a totally different player than he’s looked like. What happened to him, man? It’s insane. Even outside the turnover plays, it’s just other plays I’m talking about, too. It’s like he’s reading the game better. Like he’s the calls are going right. Like you can just see everything kind of clicking for him. It’s kind of cool. Um I mentioned Jordan Lewis who’s playing truly and I’m not even doing a bit here, playing like a pro bowler this year. um like they they have these guys that are actually just making everyone’s just kind of making a play. Haven’t even mentioned their number two overall pick that that was how good these other guys are kind of playing. Yes, it’s been turnover dependent, but there’s more real to it. Like I just think that these guys are just playing as fast and not making the mistakes that have killed them in the past. And going against the Chiefs team, they’re trying to give Rashad Smith more touches, a little bit more team speed there. Going against a they got Xavier Worthy back and you felt it. you actually finally saw some explosive passes connecting, which is what this offense needs. It’s just kind of one of these things where both teams prove it. Do it again. Do it for another week. I I feel much better about where the Chiefs are at. Uh again, I got to kind of reiterate, I I wrote about the Chiefs, Ravens, and Texans last week, and after I reviewed them all, I’m like, of these three, Chiefs are the ones that are going to figure it out. It’s not just because of the past, but it’s like just the bones they had and what what they do have and what’s going to come. But, uh, it was it was nice to at least see going against a Jags team. Just curious what they cook up. They’re at home. It’s going to be kind of a could be a statement game for them that they’ve arrived, but they’ve kind of shot themselves in the foot when they’ve had these moments before. Uh, I’m just trying to I think Yeah, just a little bit. That Bengals game from two years ago is just burning in my brain. Uh, but the I I think the Chiefs rookies Kingsley or I’m sorry, Josh played has been playing well. Kingsley Sumatias stacked together his two best weeks as a pro backto-back week. So like that’s coming together. It’s like man, can you just get some juice in your run game? That would I think that would just make everything feel so much better because I think the past game’s getting there. I know. Like I don’t get how they ran this running back room just right back. Like come on now. They they love their own they want their own narratives. We found the seventh round Isaiah Pacheco and that’s our guy because he was the Super Bowl runner. Most rushing yards in that game. And it’s like you got to realize what else you had that made that happen. I know you don’t have to say like draft a running back. You don’t I know you drafted CH in the first round. Can you imagine Jonathan Taylor in this offense? U but like I get all that stuff, but like third round’s fine. Fourth round’s fine. You can take a guy. You don’t need Kareem Hunt coming back. Like there’s no zero reason Kareem Hunt has to be on this roster. There’s zero reason, zero possible argument for it. So hopefully Bashard Smith gives gives him a little bit because that’s what this this team needs desperately. But um I am seeing the passing game get sorted out a little bit. There’s there’s some good science happening with the Chiefs offense. This will be a fun one. All right, moving on to the other side of the ball. Jagso Chiefs defense. What do you think about this one? Uh if I’m if I’m Jacksonville, I am going to play this game like as big as possible and just mash it down their throats. Um because I don’t I I I still think that you know we talk about Kansas City’s defensive backs and um certainly they need an infusion of talent there. I mocked them a quarterback uh in our mock draft this week in the first round. But I still I still don’t love like I guess the idea of like where this Jaguars passing game is and it’s still a little discombobulated as you know as BTJ and Travis Hunter and Trevor try to all get on the same page. Um, I don’t think you want those guys like dropping back a ton versus bags, even with the Chiefs defense in that personnel state. Uh, just because that’s a tough guy to game plan for. So, I would just try to keep us ahead of the sticks as, uh, you know, as big as much as possible. And I found some interesting stats uh, from their 12 personnel runs for Kansas City’s defense and Jacksonville’s offense. Um, so Jacksonville has uh, run the 11th most runs out of 12 personnel with 37 runs. got 249 yards, two touchdowns, 6.7 yards per carry, 50% success rate, and they’re averaging 0.24 EPA per rush on those plays. So, it’s not even just like one big rush. It’s like you’re getting big chunks like kind of consistently. You know, when you see 50% success rate, like you’re you’re doing something well. And on the flip side, Kansas City has been absolutely awful when teams go big and run against them. Uh they giving up 41 carries for 231 yards, three touchdowns, 5.6 60 yards per carry. Uh 55% success rate and 0.23 EPA per carry. So I think if you are going to keep the heat off of Trevor Lawrence in this game, uh you should just keep handing the ball off to the much new and improved Travis Etien uh and an offensive line that’s a lot more competent than it was last year and just try to mash them off their spot and keep yourself in, you know, the third and short situations. You nailed it. That’s exactly what I’m looking at, too. Keeps bags simple. So go heavy, which means two tight ends because even if you don’t have like the burliest tight ends, Spags will match. Like that’s just what he does. He’ll match with base. I mean, with his base personnel. And I looked at the exact same stats. I went two or fewer receivers just to kind of cover it all. Same exact thing, though. They’re first in rushing success rate. They’re third overall in success rate, third in yards per run, like all that stuff. And then yeah, the Chiefs defense. This is what the Ravens were kind of getting at, but then just the game script got away from them. Yeah. They’re 31st in rushing success rate allowed on early downs against two or fewer receivers. Just like I always talk about natural answers. That’s as natural as it gets. We do this and they’re bad against this. Do it like that. That that’s very easy. And um I I I keep complimenting Liam Con and what their offense is doing. Just the whole offensive staff, the run game, they just the offensive line for the Jags. I keep I keep reiterating this and I sound such like a hater. It’s not good, but it’s so improved and it’s sound and they use the right runs for it. And one of those is a lot of side to side stuff. A lot of, you know, uh, if we’re are we are running up the middle, we’ll have a polar as opposed to just duo and just try and, you know, burly burl it up. They did do a little duo against the 49ers last week, which is pretty good. But going against Chris Jones, you want Chris Jones moving side to side. You don’t want Chris Jones teeing off on you guys. Chris Jones has been unblockable in the run game this year. Like actually, I know I just mentioned these run stats, but it’s because other stuff’s happening, but he’s just truly one-on-one. He wins. And so, okay, we know that we have a lot of team speed. We have ETN, we have Toutin. All right, let’s go side to side. Let’s go side to side. Let’s get these guys running left to right. Let’s get these big burly linebackers running left to right. Let’s throw out of this with Brent Strange against these linebackers. Get these running backs against these linebackers. Again, natural answers. That makes sense. I will say that the one thing that is curious to me is Spags he kind of this isn’t like a true true Shanahan offense but like he kind of tees off on Shanahan offenses cuz those condensed splits that’s where he can do some funky corner blitz looks and everything. So that’s what you’re hoping is, oh, if we get them in base, the blitzing won’t be as exotic. That won’t be as crazy. But if you get those tight splits with the receivers, that’s where a corner comes. That’s where something crazy comes at the snap of the ball. And the Jags use condensed splits at the uh condensed formations at the six highest rate in the NFL. So that’s like one little thing I’m kind of curious on because he’s kind of had that number on zone teams and outside and and those condensed split types of teams. But I do think the Jags are kind of they’re pretty well coached right now. I know they have a ton of penalties, but that’s cuz they’re trying to do so much motion, trying to do so much cadence stuff, trying to do so much communication, and that’s in a good way that I think it gets sorted out. But man, the scheme makes sense. The concepts make sense. Brian Thomas Jr., all right, you don’t want to run over the middle. All right, we’re running nothing but out routes. That’s all we’re targeting for you is out route, out route, out route because you’re not going to run over the middle. That’s just good coaching. We’re going to not make you do something you’re not going to be not going to do. Um, and then yeah, the last thing too is kind of my I’m very curious to see how Trevor Lawrence does against the Blitz as well. Like I I do think one of the strengths of this game is he does read the game well. Sometimes he assumes some things and gets caught. So like going against the Texans like when they brought blitzes I bring up that play to Brian Thomas Jr. that kind of sealed the game for him. Checked into a look fully changed of protection against cover zero. Maybe get to see a couple of that where you get to see his communication, see him getting rid of the ball, which is why he throws to his first read all the time, whatever that stupid stat is. It’s because he knows where to go with the ball. It’s a good thing. It’s a good thing, which is so infuriating for me. Um, fun little styles makes fights battle here. You know, Chiefs defense spags knows he kind of really doesn’t have the horses, so he’s getting really funky with his pressure looks, like really funky, which is kind of fun to rewatch. Curious to see kind of how both teams answer the bell here. Pretty fun matchup. Yeah, I know. Chiefs are three and a half point favorites on the road in Jacksonville. You sweet home Alabama after the third quarter. You think you’re going to survive that Kansas City Chiefs? I I think I might be the only national guy that actually knows that. Might be. Um I uh I I think the Chiefs win, but the Jaguars cover. got some get some fourth quarter like last drive dramatics that end in a a field goal for the Chiefs to get you under the cover but still win. I’m copying it all the way here. We’re we’re unlock that. Yeah, I because I I I do think that this is going to be a good game. I think both teams are going to be in it the whole time. I think the Chiefs do pull it out in the end, but I I like where the Jags are at. I wish Walker was playing. That would make me a little bit more, you know, I’m going to bet on this. I know Walker isn’t going to be like a fivepoint swing on a play, but he does matter in this type of matchup. So, um, but no, I I’m really curious. The Jacks have some speed and they have some they’re doing some cool things, but I do think the Chiefs are they found their way last week. I know the Ravens are a bit of a mouthwatch team, mouthwash team right now, but I do think that they were doing some good things on on

Get ready for the AFC clash as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Jacksonville Jaguars! 🍿

Will the highly-ranked Jaguars defense keep the momentum, or will Patrick Mahomes’ offense find its groove on the road? Nate Tice and Charles McDonald of Football 301 break down the specific analytical mismatch showing why Jacksonville’s run game is perfectly designed to exploit the Chiefs’ biggest weakness, especially against run-heavy formations. Find out what the loss of Trayvon Walker means for the Jaguars’ defensive front in this critical AFC showdown.

Who you got: Jaguars or Chiefs? What defensive adjustment will be the difference in this game?

00:00 Fight of the Week: Chiefs @ Jaguars
05:43 Jaguars O vs Chiefs D
11:45 Game Predictions

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