ROUGH START: Chicago Cubs lose big in NLDS opener

ROUGH START: Chicago Cubs lose big in NLDS opener

Cubs lose to the Brewers in game one of the NLDS. We talk all about it next. You are Locked On Cubs, your daily Chicago Cubs podcast, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. You are Locked On Cubs, part of the Locked On Network. gear team every day alongside Sam Olber. I’m Matt Cozy. Sam and I are lifelong fans taking our passion into discussion with you on all things Cubs. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can purchase $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the FanDuel app today. This is in essence our Monday episode. uh might be here with a bonus or maybe a short that Sam will do similar to uh Friday. Uh otherwise, our next full episode will be after Monday’s game. Uh we’re going to trend that way to preview Monday. That’s a critical game after what happened on Saturday. Also, the offense being one-dimensional, uh the Matthew Boyd decision and more as the Cubs did lose 9-3 to the Brewers in game one of the NLDS on Saturday. Matthew Boyd on short rest after throwing game one of the wild card this past week didn’t get out of the first inning allowing six runs on four hits and a walk. The Cubs can be a bad matchup for what the Brewers do well. Right. Brewers put the ball in play a lot. Cubs have a great defense. But Nicoer made an error in the first that compounded all those things. And Sam after that the game was over early in this one. Yeah. game felt over pretty much after the first inning. Um I you know I I think this game comes down to a few things. One of them the biggest one or or close to the biggest one is is the boy choice which we’re going to talk about in a bit. So I’ll leave that. Um the other part is is is is you know the Brewers move the baseball around. Uh the Cubs made a big mistake. And then you know offensively the Cubs scored three runs but there just wasn’t a whole lot of traffic again. and and now their total now they’ve played four games in the in the postseason and they scored nine runs, you know, so that that that’s not going to cut it. But the the other side of the coin is this. I personally, you know, I not not only did I not expect Boyd to start today, as I was talking with Chuck yesterday before the announcement came, I I thought for sure it was going to be Colin Ray, but I did not expect the Cubs to win today. I I I thought that today was a must-win game for Milwaukee. And I know people will kind of scoff at that and go, “How can it be a must-win game? It’s a must-win game for both teams.” Yes, it is. I mean, you don’t throw away playoff games and things of that nature, but this isn’t a three-game series. It’s a fiveame series. And I just felt like with all the Brewers playoff demons of the past, the Cubs literally clinching about 40 plus hours ago, whatever it was, celebrating and all that stuff. I just w with their best guy on the mound. I just thought that this was a game the Brewers had to get. They got it. Um it was a little bit concerning in the dominance of how it got it. Looked like it was just two totally different teams playing out there as how it looked at times during the middle of the regular season. But the message here for the Cubs is simple, Matt. This game now does not matter. Doesn’t matter if you lost 93, 90-3, or 3-2. You’re down 10. Your goal coming into this series was to come back home 1-1, just like you did in 2015 against St. Louis. I remember when the Cubs lost that game, game one, everyone’s like, “All right, Cardinals are better, whatever.” And and what did they do in game two? They played a little small ball in the second inning. They found a way to get the crowd into it. Jorge Solair at a big home run. You blink, it’s 1-1. You come back to Wrigley ready to go. Um, I have this series going five games. Monday night becomes the game where we’re very similar to Thursday. That feels kind of do or dieish because I just don’t think you’re going to beat this Brewers team three consecutive times. Uh, um, up to 0. But, you know, Horner air, the Boyd situation, and just a really quiet offensive day. Yeah, it was. didn’t go well at all. Went terribly at times, but I I am reminding myself of a lot of of what you just went over and the simplicity of that. It’s the first to three, not the first to one, though. Monday becomes critical to make sure you return to Wrigley with the series tied at a game a piece. Yes, Boyd instead of Ray might be easy to second guess when Ry is the only option. By the way, the Assad crowd, Assad was not in the mix. He didn’t even make the team. Uh, so Ray, the only option. Well, he’s been sharp for a long time, number one. Number two, Boyd hadn’t been trending uh well up until, you know, his last couple of of outings. Uh, and over Ray’s last five appearances in the regular season, I mean, listen to these numbers. He posted a 26 erra with 32 strikeouts and four walks in 27 and a third. He’d be pitching against his former team. Boyd would be on full rest. Everybody would then be on full rest. It’d be a domino effect, right? Um I I remember talking about it in in the moments the Cubs beat the Padres’s the other day, Sam. I I I I didn’t even understand why Boyd was warming up in the pen. I I thought there was that was a shock to me. That to me he was going to pitch today. Yeah, you called that. I was surprised. I agreed with that. I mean, I observed that, but I don’t know if I agreed with it. Yeah. And did he make good pitches today? No. Is that because of rest? Probably not. But the fact is is you had you did have a a good option in Ray and I I know they were underdogs entering the game. Um but but what what do you think about this because yeah he was out of the game after 20 pitches. Yeah. I I’m really disappointed that the timing of this unfortunately we didn’t have a show uh because if we had a show before the game it wouldn’t have been second guessing. It would have been first guessing. Sure. because I was very surprised when that got released uh uh Friday evening. Friday. Yeah. U it it didn’t make any sense to me for a few reasons. And obviously hindsight’s 2020, but I’m I’m pretty transparent with you guys when I miss on stuff, which happens. Um I just, you know, for for example, I I couldn’t believe that Valencia got 11 12 outs. I I wouldn’t have believed that. You know, it goes both ways. Sure. Uh first of all, Boyd did not look good at all against the Brewers in his two starts this year. So bringing him back, obviously he has to pitch in the series at some point, forcing him to come back on three days rest. I get it. He didn’t throw a lot against the Padres’s. Observing that outing, it felt much more like a survival from Boyd than a great outing. The results were good enough, but he it’s just it’s just not crisp right now. Uh he struggled at the end of the year. Colin Ray, like you said, for all the reasons, I just thought I thought it was going to be Ray and Sarroa. Piece it together, do the best you can. I I was surprised they pushed Boyd and it and it and it backfired. And look, maybe we’re having a different conversation right now if Nico makes a fairly routine play. That’s fair. But, you know, Matthew Boyd didn’t make it through the first inning. And so, and the other thing with Boyd is, and you can’t cater everything, he he’s so much better at home than he is on the road, you know, and so that would have been a long rest to push him all the way to game three, but it it was a curious decision. I think Ray earned the start. former team fel felt pretty good and confident that he would go out and give us a competitive effort, but um I I will say at the end of the day, I think the Cubs are going to lose this game regardless of who pitched. Um the Brewers are ready to go today. So So tip of the cap and uh let’s let’s let’s let’s find a way to win game two. Uh Michael Soka was also bad allowing three runs on five hits and two walks. Yeah, he was not good. Aaron Savali helped out going four and a third shut out. Ben Brown finished the game. Uh it’s going to be everyone’s available at least uh on Monday after whoever starts, which is a big decision that we’ll get to uh later. Before we do that, the offense has scored nine nine runs in four games uh despite out homering their opponents by a lot. Nine runs over four games. Uh not a lot. Let’s talk about it next. This episode is brought to you by FanDuel. The NFL season is here and FanDuel has an offer you don’t want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get 300 in bonus bets if you win. That’s right. Pick a bet, put down five bucks, and if it hits, you’ll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. If you like the Cubs before this game, now’s the time to jump on them because the Brewers are probably going to go up. The Cubs will probably be at least maybe two and a half, three to one now to win the series. But if you’re like me and you thought that this was going to go five games, you probably were going to lose game one. So now you can go get some value. They were plus 100 before uh uh first pitch today in the series. if you can go get him at 2:1, 2 and a half to one now. Go get him if you believe in this Cubs team. So, what are you waiting for? Visit fan duel.com to download the FanDuel app today and get started. Shout out to the Everydayers and you can become a Locked On Cubs Everydayer by joining us for every episode throughout the week, which today is a Saturday, a rare Saturday recording. Maybe our first show uh will be after Monday’s game uh game two of the NLDS, which is at 8:08 p.m. Central. Oh, I thought we I thought we were done. I thought we had our last late night show. I know. I know. I thought it was going to be till the first West Coast trip next year, but Yeah. No, we got a late one and a big one. You know, we’re going to get at least one of those. Maybe the biggest game we’ve ever covered. Wow. Uh Cubs offense has scored nine runs in four postseason games. 241 average, OBP of just 287, six home runs. That leads the playoffs right now, but nine total runs and zero stolen bases. Yeah, that to me is is notable as well. Uh again, the Cubs do things that pose a bad matchup for the Brewers. And as you compare and contrast them on the same sides of the ball, Cubs have slug, Brewers don’t have much. Well, the Cubs out homerred the Brewers in this game by three and lost by six, right? Um the And you always hear about barrel rate. The Cubs lost by six. I get it. The Brewers are 29th in barrel rate. That’s that’s a real stat. Yeah, the Cubs are top 10. But and a lot of this, Sam, and I’m preaching to the choir to you, but the Brewers learned how to win a long time ago, years ago now. And it it really doesn’t matter how they get there. They they get there. Yeah. And the Cubs offense, they they’re they’re theyed one-dimensional right now. I do wonder if that limits them in making a run. Well, I’m going to save all the that stuff for after, you know, a and and we got all off seasonason to talk about baseball philosophy and things like that. Right now, the Cubs have to find a way to win three three baseball games before the Brewers do, and none of that stuff matters. And you can homer your way to victory, but you need some traffic on the bases to do it. I I believe all six home runs of those I believe are all solos that, right? They had three today that were solo. Seiya was solo. Bush was solo. Kelly was solo. the Padres’s. They haven’t had a homer with a man on base. So, um that that’s going to be difficult. I um it’s also I I I think Fine with the Padres’s just did an awesome job shutting down the run game and today they didn’t really have any traffic to run. So, you know, um they got to get more hits. They got to put the ball uh the bat on the ball more offensively. You know, I’m trying to figure out a way to say this without um you know, basically, you know, I don’t want to say that I’m limiting what the Cubs can do this October, but for them to make a deep run, a deep run, and and let’s be honest, a deep run would be winning this series. Their offense has to return to where it was. Like what what they did to San Diego, that was great. They wriggly they wrigglied it out. But you’re not going to be able to wriggly it out. this team, this team plays like that. They’re going to wriggly it out. They don’t care. They’re They’re going to slap the ball around. They do need to hit some home runs, Matt. They They They need to get some guys on base because at the end of the day, look what you’re asking pitching wise. You know, your number one starter couldn’t get through the first inning. Uh um your your number two starter, they don’t even trust the start. They have him open. Uh Tyion was masterful. Uh but but it’s really hard right now to win. You’re missing you can make the case you’re missing your two best pitchers. One of them got hurt in April. One of them uh emerged and got hurt here uh recently and and and is not going to pitch. We kind of you know they talked about how hey maybe he’ll be ready for the NLDS. Whatever. Okay. I mean I don’t want to go there but um so you really need to hit and uh there hasn’t been much signs uh of that. I mean I mean today they faced a great pitcher that obviously always feels like he he gets up for the Cubs but 12 more strikeouts for the Cubs, six hits and with all due respect outside of the Bush homer, you know, the two other homers were meaningless. So, you know, you’re going to have to find a way to really put up some runs in this series because it’s going to be tough to get 27 outs without this team scoring, especially there with how locked in they are and where our pitching staff is. Well, four games, six walks, 47 strikeouts. That’s not that’s not something that’s sustainable. U they are going to have to get in the lab tomorrow and and go over that. Uh and I don’t know to expect Quinn Pester or Canana or whoever. Yeah, that’s a great point. Maybe Pat Murphy pulls a rabbit out of his hat and Chad Patrick starts. But whoever it is, they should they should be able to hit him. They should. Yeah. And you should put the ball in play a ton. Yeah. Okay. I Yes. You’re people are going to strike out against Pester or whoever, but put the ball in play. Give yourself a chance. I do think there’s going to be opportunities to do damage. And we saw some good signs from guys on on Saturday. Pete’s first hit. Uh her homerred. Is that a good sign though, the Her Homer or is that I you know what I mean? I I know Nicoer get hit. I’m with you on Pete. Sure. Sure. I’d like to see a sign from Kyle Tucker. I’d like to see him get an extra base hit. Yeah. Sea got got rung up a couple times. I’d like to see Tucker get an extra base hit. What was the last time he got one? Well, he’s been hurt for a while and so um probably late August. No, that the the game that he homered in before he got hurt September 2nd. Yeah. Yeah. You know, I mean, he we all know that that that that situation come the the last game of the year, you know, that that’s probably be Kyle Tucker’s last game in a Cub uniform. And and man, I mean, it’s just it would be really fun to see him have a huge game, you know, like Cubs win 64 on Monday and he hits two home runs. So, it’s like, “Hey, man, like I really I I want that trade to to to just I want to put an exclamation mark on that so I don’t have to sit all off season, you know, being upset about it.” Well, and they would if they win three games against the Brewers. 100%. Cuz after that, everything really would be a bonus. Oh, 100%. They made a lineup change Saturday. Yeah. So, they can’t really make another one, you know, swapping Tucker and Hap. Uh, of course it didn’t matter on Saturday. Hopefully it does moving forward, but I don’t see I don’t see any changes lineupwise. No, I I appreciate Pete’s adjustments, you know, from Wednesday to Thursday last week. Maybe there’s something small in there for a Sea or a Tucker or a Hap uh as well. Um, but really I it to me it’s the OBP for that to be in the 280s for them to abandon what they’ve done so well, which is to just grind out the starting pitcher. Yeah. And accept your walks, move the baseball across the field, then hit home runs. Uh, yeah. Just some something I’m desiring to see right now. Yeah. Let me just make let me just make one one positive point. Okay. Nick Paveeta and Dylan CE were really really good. The Padres’s bullpen is otherworldly. Freddy Peralta is really, really good. They got to U Darvish. With all due respect to Quinn Pier and with all due respect to Jose Kintana, this is going to be a level down in terms of the starters you’re facing. So, I wouldn’t call by a lot. I wouldn’t call this I’m not like, “Oh my gosh, what’s going on with the offense?” Freddy Peralta. I think Freddy Peralta is probably the most underrated pitcher in baseball. I I mean, the guy he’s been great for five years. Every year he’s great and and every year he he pitches really well against our club. Um but you with your season on the line on a big stage with with our hitters, you should be able to get to Priest and Kitana. Yeah. And again, I think there’s a small chance Chad Patrick pitches, but it’ll probably And you should be able to get to him. Of course. Of course. Who’s going to oppose one of those dudes? Uh what’s the path to victory in in game two late into Monday evening? We get to that next. This episode is brought to you by Monarch Money. Most people can’t name all their financial accounts or even what they’re worth, whether it’s 401ks, properties, or investments. And when you don’t have the full picture, you can end up leaving money on the table. That’s why there is Monarch Money. It’s an all-in-one personal finance tool that brings your entire financial life together in one clean, easy to use interface on your laptop or your phone. 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Make sure you’re subscribed to locked on cubs. That way you don’t miss any of the great Cubs content we’ve got for you. Whether that’s Apple, Spotify, YouTube, and more. Cubs Brewers game two of the NLDS. 8:08 p.m. Central Monday. Over 48 hours in between games. that could uh possibly help the Cubs right there. You’re going to have your five main short relief guys totally rested now after not appearing Saturday. Uh who starts though? Uh can’t be show Imanaga in my opinion. You see what happened with the lefty starter and Boyd. You see the trends of these two guys and quite frankly the Cubs are trusting them less and less especially given the way they were used last series. Uh, please just wait to pitch IA on Wednesday or even Thursday depending on and it’s gonna be cool. Yeah, depending on whether or not Jameson Tyion starts on short rest Monday. Tyion threw 60 pitches Thursday. But how about this? You just did that with Boyd. So maybe you write what you now evaluate is maybe wrong and start Ray. And then you have options with Imanaga and Tyion at Wrigley. Yep. uh later in the series. Sam, what do you think? Think what you I think what you think. Um I I would go Ray Monday night. Um I think he’s earned that right and then I would go Tyion Wednesday and then hopefully Sha on Thursday. Um that that that’s probably where I would go. If you want to go Tyion short rest Monday, um you know, I would just piggyback him with Ry. Uh, do you do you go all hands on deck and maybe go Shotaa for two then to Tyion or then to Ray? I don’t know. Uh, but I’m with you. I I would like to see show Wriggley. I’ve already looked at the forecast. Um, and the middle of the week, the middle of the week next week, it’s going to greatly cool off. Now, the problem is this Brewer team, they don’t really rely on they don’t hit a bunch of fly balls, right? You know what I mean? So, it’s like I don’t know how that matchup plays, but even at Wrigley, it’s just a harder place to hit. Uh, and the Cubs, the Cubs have handled them at Wrigley this year. So, you know, they won three out of five and whatnot. So, um, I I would lean Ray, J Mo, Sha on long rest, so he’s ready to rock and roll. That would be my my lean, but I don’t know. They might start Sha. All I know is is Monday night’s all hands on deck. So, You could see you could see Shota for two and then it could go, you know, Ray for two and then it could be, you know, then they’re going to go to their go to the bullpen. They’re gonna Yeah. They’re going to go to their their Theelbar. Okay. Their Palencia, their Pomerance, their Kitridge, their Keller. That that’s where they’re most comfortable. And it’s a it’s it’s a must-win situation. So, I don’t even know if the starter really matters that much on Monday night because it might might be real short. So, that would be interesting to me. it. Like I would even do show nine nine batters. Yeah, that might be too many. Uh Ray Ray nine and then you do the group of five. Yeah, I think it might be. I could be sold on that because then Yeah, you’d go Tyion Wednesday, Boyd Thursday. Yeah. Oh boy. Yeah. And Boyd’s much better at home. Uhhuh. Um, so I heard that. Oo. Okay. Yeah. No, I just I I Man, you’ve really lost confidence. And boy, but so is the team. I I I just I thought he I I really didn’t think he was that good Tuesday. I just respected his his effort and his competitiveness, and I love the guy, and he’s had a great year. Uh, but man, um, yeah, it just doesn’t seem as crisp with him, and the Brewers seem to have his numbers a little bit. But I’ll tell you this. I’ll tell you this. If it’s if it’s 2-1 Brewers or 2-1 Cubs and you’re telling me Boyd’s going to get a second chance game four, he’ll he’ll I think he’ll rise to the occasion. He because he’s he’s a prideful guy and he’s he’s better than that. That sounds right. That That sounds right. So, yeah, I would quintessential boy How about a quintessential Boyd start to win the series Thursday? Yeah. Well, you’d have to beat him three straight times to do that. Um, right here. Here’s what you need to do. Here’s what you need to do. I I’ll close with this. Oh my gosh. Okay, this Brewers team is very I know what they’re up to. Okay, I I have a very similar personality as Pat Murphy does. I He He’s doing Keep food in your uh clothing. Go ahead. The average Joe’s dodgeball thing. Did you see that in their locker? I did. I Yes. He’s trying to keep them. Hey, you guys are the underdogs. Nobody believes in you. We’re just a bunch of nobbodyies. Look, they won almost a 100 games. Yeah, you’re not fooling me. This is a really good baseball team. They just do it differently than other people. Ju just because they do it differently doesn’t make them underdogs. It doesn’t make that they are in control this series. They are the favorites in this series. What I want to see this team do, and when I say this team, I mean the Brewers, see what happens if the Cubs put a little little game pressure on them, right? We never got a chance to really do that in the divisional race. Find a way to win a game on Monday night and let’s see how they respond. Chuck from Lockdown Brewers, his prediction was Cubs split in Milwaukee and the Brewers come into Wrigley Field and take two. If that’s the case, if that’s the case, then this Brewer team is is is really, really, really tough. I want to see how they respond. If the Cubs beat them, the Cubs got to put some pressure on them. Make them feel like, oh, you know, all the they they don’t feel any pressure. They were up right away in this game. They’ve dominated. They’ve been the feel-good story. They’re great. Their co their coach keeps challenging them. Nobody believes in you guys. Uh, you know, when they came into Wrigley, were the underdogs. Meanwhile, the Cubs were nine games out at that time. Um, they’ve had a 14game win streak, an 11game win streak, a nine-game win streak. They are not some, oh my gosh, Cinderella story. They just do it differently. And I respect the way they do it. But I want to see what happens. I want to see what happens if the Cubs put some real pressure on them. go into Milwaukee, steal a game 5-4, and then you come back to an atmosphere that’s far better than the one that they produced today at our stadium, our house, where we beat the San Diego Padres’s, who are really, really good, too. And let’s see what happens. Get it 1-1 to Wrigley. That’s all you got to do. Get it 1-1. Yeah, that was always the goal. It hasn’t changed even though you you got beat handily on Saturday. And maybe someone could clip that and send it over to a couple of the of the guys. Uh, also Central, are we is this game getting played in San Diego or Also, you made the point earlier, Sam, the Cubs have beaten the Brewers at Wrigley. Uh, excuse me. I remember when they beat them easily in May in Milwaukee. Yeah, they did it this year. Yeah, the Apple TV night on Friday. Then the next day when you, me, and Nick Cozy met up. Yeah, fortunately that was a long time ago and it’s a different Brewer team. I know, but but but it we saw it happen though, right? Pete Pete hit about four homers. Where’s that? Yeah. All right. Um All right. We’ll be back. Well, can I share one story from you with you? Yeah. So, my mom was over today for for the first part of the game. Oh, wow. I don’t know why that’s a big story. Um and so, you know, BCH hits the homer, right? Yeah. And my mom, you know, because like a leadoff homer feels like more than a run because it’s like, whoa, you just started the game with a homer. And so I was like, “Mom, I don’t those don’t do much for me. It’s 10. Let’s see what how Boyd looks.” And my mom’s like, “Hey, you have got to stop.” You know, she’s like, “You have got to stop being so cynical. Be positive. They’re up 10 in a playoff series. Like, what are you doing?” And she was right. And you know, you know how I am. And then 6-1 about 20 minutes later. And she kind of just loo she looked at me, nodded her head, and took off. This is Lockdown Cubs, part of the lockdown podcast network. Your team every day for your great story. For your second listen, check out the go Ali. Nice win in West Lafayette. Locked on MLB game night. Yeah. Bye- for the Hawkeyes. Every game, every night, all season. Hawkeyes come to Champagne next week. Get local analysis on a national scale. Find MLB game night of the Lockdown MLB channel on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast. All right, we’ll be back with a shorty of some kind Sunday. Either a short or a bonus episode that will be on the shorter side, but for sure catch us back after Monday night’s game. He’s Sam Olber. I’m Matt Cozy. This is Locked on Cubs. Go Cubs.

We recap the Cubs loss to the Brewers in Game 1 of the NLDS and much more.

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