MELTDOWN: Hunter Green CRUMBLES Under Playoff Pressure | Can Reds RECOVER From Game 1 DISASTER?

MELTDOWN: Hunter Green CRUMBLES Under Playoff Pressure | Can Reds RECOVER From Game 1 DISASTER?

This was Hunter Green’s first big moment in the playoffs and it’s clear the lights were just too bright. [Music] You are Locked on Reds, your daily Cincinnati Reds podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. Welcome in to Locked on Reds. Locked on Reds is part of the Lockdown on Podcast Network. We are your team every day. My name is Stephen Offenbaker. His name is Jeff Carr. We are lifelong Cincinnati Reds fans. We’ve been podcasting about this team for a combined 14 seasons. We love talking baseball. We love talking Red’s baseball and we love talking about those things with you. On today’s show a little bit later, I am going to tell you why I think it is absolute go allin time for the Cincinnati Reds as they face elimination from the postseason. And I’m gonna tell you what that looks like. We’ll see if Jeff agrees with me or not. That’s a little bit later. Uh, also Jeff thinks he saw a glimmer of hope. We’re gonna get into that here in just a few minutes. But where we’re going to start is the start from Hunter Green back in his hometown in Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium making his playoff debut. And it seems like the lights were in fact just a little too bright. We’re going to talk about all of that on today’s show brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use the code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase. All right, Jeff. Um, well, that didn’t go according to plan. Uh, Hunter Green was, I feel like, the Red’s best chance at stealing a win at Dodger Stadium to start this series. And it was clear pretty early that Hunter didn’t really have his best stuff. And this was not going to be uh one of those starts we talked about for years to come. No. And it it was clear that leading into this ball game, it felt like there were a lot of things that were pointing to how special and how large this game loomed in his mind. And you know, all due respect to all of that, I think it all came to a head on Tuesday night where it was like, oh, all of these different things and this is so amazing. Oh, and here’s Show Otani and I need to throw him strikes, but I can’t throw him that strike. Oh, there it goes. It’s gone. All right. And it was quickly out of hand from there. Like you could tell from that point on, Hunter’s adrenaline level was too high. He was overthrowing everything. when he did locate some pitches here and there. We saw that Hunter Green that we saw this year, but for the most part, Steve, he really dialed the clock back to a point when he was a rookie and it was like, man, he’s got electric stuff, but he’s not controlling it really well. Yeah, three home runs in three innings uh gives him a playoff RA of 15 if anybody’s keeping track of that. You know, five runs, six hits, all of them earned. Jeff, a couple free passes. Clearly not ace Hunter Green stuff. You’re right. It looked much more like rookie Hunter Green where the the potential was there. We could see where he’s going, but he wasn’t quite living up to it. Look, you know, I I I listened to Tim Daniel on the postcast last night and and Tim kind of adopted the stance of, you know, he’s not gonna say bad things about Hunter Green based on this start. Um, you know, I’m not either, but also I’m I going to call it like it is. I think the moment got just a little too big for him uh in his his playoff debut. Maybe we did that thing we did with him early in his career where we put too much pressure on this and we hyped it too much that of what we expected from Hunter Green. I don’t think we put too much pressure on him. We know what to expect from Hunter Green at this point. It’s just this was a new situation. So, I mean, maybe you could make that argument, but I would still like knowing what I know, I would still make these expectations. He missed the expectations. I I think the tough part is you come into this series as the Reds and absolutely everyone says, “Great job. We’ll, you know, we’ll see you next year after Wednesday.” A and I think that they played into that as as much as I thought they were going to be, you know, they were going to make sure that the story was different, the narrative was different. They were playing with house money and boy, this was going to be fun. As soon as the house handed in that money, they handed it all right back in the first five innings. I mean, this game was over at the end, really at the end of the fifth, but you know, they add a couple for good measure there at the end of the sixth. And you’re just like, geez, at this point, where are we going with this? And they get a couple of runs back in the seventh, but then Noelie Marte hands them back a few more in the bottom of the seventh. And then at that point, it was just like, man, they can’t even mount a comeback. Like they they start a comeback and then they give up more runs. It just it felt like all around there were performances here and there and everywhere. And then Connor Phillips, you know, he came in and he gave up a couple of dingers. Very uncharacteristic of him. There were just a couple of guys where it was just like this is their first playoff experience and boy did they look green. Yeah. You know, I I didn’t expect Hunter Green to be perfect, Jeff. There’s a reason that the Dodgers won 93 games. There’s a reason that they won their division. their their their lineup. There’s six players in their everyday lineup with 3.5 or more in war with the most of that being Show Otani at 6.6. They have a lot of dudes on this team. They’re going to score some runs. Um I I I think you hit the nail on the head though in that Hunter Green didn’t do what got him here in this start. He he fell into that old place, that old habit, which is probably like his safe space, so to speak, of doing what he did back in the day, right? There was a large portion of Hunter Green’s career where all he had to do was go set foot on the mound and blow the baseball by people. A large portion of his of his baseball life has been spent doing that. Only in the last couple years has he evolved into the pitcher. And I think he fell back on those habits. I think I think the moment got to him and he reverted to that thing that he used to do when he needed to have success, which was just try to blow it by somebody, try to try to just singlehandedly beat the dude in the batters box. And I I think I think that ultimately is what got him. And he learned he he couldn’t do that very quickly as Show Otani. They kept showing that replay, Steve, there on the ESPN broadcast. And like they basically showed that Show saw that pitch in slow motion. Like when the fast ball was coming in at 100, I think it was at 100.4 is what they said it was. He was so on time with it that he was just like It wasn’t even like a I think that ball had 117 Yeah. exit velocity. Is that right? 117. And it didn’t look like Shoi was sped up. Like it looked like Shi was just normally swinging at that. It was a very controlled smooth swing from him. And I think at that point Hunter was like, “Oh boy, here we go.” Because he could not throw his splitter. Every time he threw his splitter, he spiked it into the ground. And then whenever he threw his slider, it wasn’t fooling anybody. And so he had to set that up with his fastball, but his command was a little bit off. So, anything that was on the black last week was over the plate and fat today or or last night. What do you make of that uh spiking like that? Was that adrenaline? Was he was he overthrowing just too much juice? Yes. Yeah. Because you could see he was overthrowing his fast ball, he was overthrowing his slight he was overthrowing everything. And that’s why Terry Francona brought him out of the game. Like I mean obviously you give up four runs in the third inning, it’s time to go. But at the same time, like even before that point, like Jeff Brantley was saying on the radio broadcast, “Boy, it looks like you got to get him out of here. I know the Reds were counting on him to throw a lot more in this game, but he is not helping you and you’ve got to get him out of here.” And that’s just really where everything sort of went haywire. Like for the first five innings, Steve, I was just like, “Boy, this is what we waited for. This is what we waited five years for.” And and they hadn’t scored at that point either. And then thankfully they were able to put some things together toward the end of the ball game. And and it’s that and it’s one other reason that I feel some sort of way about tonight. And you’re going to have to bear with me because I believe the Reds will win tonight. And I’ll tell you why coming up next. If you’re looking to head down to your next event, then game time is the answer. Whether you’re traveling to Los Angeles for the other wildcard game, hopefully the other two wild card games, or if you’re looking at Bengals games, Bearcats games, Buckeyes games, they’re all on game time. They’ve got great last minute deals with the lowest prices for your tickets to your event. They’ve even got concerts. They’ve got comedy events, they’ve got theater events down at the Arinoff. All that great stuff can be found on Game Time. And they make it so easy to buy your tickets. Especially when you’re going to sporting events, like if you travel out the Chavez Ravine, they will show you your view from your seat so you know exactly what you’re getting into. They make the ticket buying process easy. That’s game time. Download the Game Time app today. Create an account and use the promo code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase. Again, that’s download the Game Time app, create an account, and use the promo code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase. Game time. Swipe, tap, ticket, go. Download Game Time today. And you need to start financially thriving with Monarch Money because Monarch Money has helped me out. It’ll definitely help you out when it comes to monitoring your spending, when it comes to seeing all of your accounts on one screen. Seriously, debit accounts, credit accounts, investment accounts, all on one screen. One login, boom, you monitor your entire financial picture for you. Plus, they make it easy to manage your finances with a partner. Y’all can see the same thing. You can plan accordingly. There’s no more awkward conversations of this, that, and the other. Monarch Money makes finances easier for you to monitor and for you to grow. You got to check out MonarchMoney today. Go to monarchmoney.com and use the promo code lockdown MLB. You’ll save 50% off your first year. Like I said, Monarch Money really helped me financially thrive. It will help you, too. Monarchmoney.com. Promo code lockdown MLB for half off your first year. Thank you for making Lockdown Reds part of your everyday routine. If you’ve not done so, make sure you hit that subscribe button. Become an everydayer. We’ll be with you all throughout the rest of this postseason run. We’ll be into the off seasonason and getting you set for a 2026 to remember right here on Lockdown Reds. Plus, when you subscribe, you also get Tim Daniel and the Reds post live at the end of every Red’s ball game. We got you covered all year long. All right, Steve. I I I know I I was kind of laughed out of the crossover with Harry and then locked on Dodgers uh whenever I said that the Reds would win this in three. And I I still feel that way because I saw a glimmer of hope there at the end of the ball game. As much as we talked about the first five innings and how bad they were, it was the last four innings that gave me hope because it was easy at that point for this team to stop. It was easy at that point for this team to pack it up. Ain’t scoring anymore. Let’s just get on the plane and go home tonight. They scored a couple there in the sixth and then they scored a bunch there in the eighth. Part of that, I understand, was just the Dodgers bullpen and not locating pitches in the strike zone and things like that, but there was an adjustment that was made. The Red’s lineup was super aggressive early on in this ball game, and I think they knew that Blake Snell was going to be just absolutely trying to fill up the strike zone, which he was. There was not like an opportunity for the Reds to just leave their bats on their shoulders and force them to throw more pitches. What would have happened was they would have went down 02 about every guy that stepped up to the plate and then they’re down 02 and you got to do something with that. But later on in the ball game as he got a little bit more tired as he gave up a run as he gave up some hits, he started to lose his command and then like okay let’s get into the bullpen here. That is when the Reds went. I think they’re going to put the pressure on Yamamoto here in his start. They’re gonna force him to throw a lot of pitches. They’re going to get into that Dodgers bullpin even earlier in this game tonight and they’re going to win. Okay, couple things. Um, first off, I’m was happy to see them finally score some runs in the seventh because that broke the 28 consecutive scoreless innings that this team was riding in postseason play. So, luckily they finally broke through and scored some runs. Um, look, I want so badly to share your excitement, Jeff. I want to believe that the Reds can get at Yamamoto, but just let’s just for a second. 173 and two/3 innings in 30 starts for the Dodgers this year. Yamamoto sporting a 2.49 erra. Um, and he in a division that had a few good teams that could score some runs. Um, he he’s played some guys. Um, his FIP says that he’s still under three guy. 2.94. Strikeouts per nine. I’m not even going to fall into that. Strikeouts per nine, 10.4. Walks per nine, 3.1. Um, this guy’s really, really, really good. And the only thing I can say that maybe the lineup will go a little bit better is the fact that you may get Gavin Lux in there. Um, who has been kind of on a bit of a good run lately. Um, I hope that we see Sal Stewart in this game. Uh, we’re going to see Will Benson in this game. Uh, hopefully one of those guys brings the fire. Um, a glimmer of hope. You know, hope is the right word. And it seems fitting that as we go into what could be the final game of the 2025 season for the Reds that we’re riding the hope as the strategy because it’s the horse that brought us here. You know, we might as well lean into it. It is. And I I think there’s something else to the fact that whoever it is, and I know we’re going to really dive into this, so I don’t want to like say who it should be right now, but whoever it is between the candidates, possible starting pitchers for the Reds tonight, uh they’re all very breaking ballheavy. They’re all not necessarily the guys that are going to rar back and throw a bunch of fast balls and and all that other stuff. That is where the Dodgers made their hay yesterday. And I felt like some of the dudes that were really teeing off, Taye Oscar Hernandez and and even Show Otani, I mean, show Otani, yeah, he had the two strike two homers, but he had three strikeouts. So, there were some pitches that were getting in on them and I feel like they’ve got the scouting reports and they’re ready to go with this. I think they’re going to see or they’re going to be throwing a lot more breaking balls tonight. Whoever it is that’s going to be on the mound for the Reds, they’ve got their marching orders. They’re going to pitch them better. I don’t foresee the Dodgers going crazy in the run department right now. Like the overunder right now and our our friends over at FanDuel have the overunder set at eight. I think it might go over, but I think it’s nine is the total. I think Reds went five to four. Okay. I I for all the reasons that Jeff, I don’t know. I I I listen I want them to win this game. I want there to be a game three. I just I really feel like that their best shot at going on that trajectory of of stealing this series was with Hunter Green on the mound. I I I just don’t know. Um I I I I try to find the hope in this lineup. The only little bit of it I can I can lean into is that I don’t think they put their best offensive lineup on the field tonight. last night rather. Um there there was much better ways. We we talked about this uh leading into the series, right? That you could go defense run prevention or you could go try and maximize what you can score. Um clearly it doesn’t matter how good Brian Hayes is at third base if show Otani’s got 117 miles per hour exit velocity going into the night there at Dodger Stadium. So, play South Stewart. I I just play South Stewart. Play him. Get him in the lineup. Um Will Benson for a little bit of power. Get him in the lineup. It’s just what has to be done. Let’s Let’s definitely hash that out a little bit more here in just a few minutes. But there’s one other analytic that I want to drop on the glimmer of hope in a good way. I I want to add it to the glimmer of hope. And that is the fact that since they began the wildcard series, the three-game wild card series in 2022, if a team wins game one, they win the series every time. In fact, I think it’s 18 out of 20 of them have been two game sweeps. So, literally, the whole cockroach mentality can’t kill us. It’s working for the Reds right now because they’re literally saying they cannot do it. No one ever has and everything’s against them. And the other piece of that too is that this would be for them to have to win the next two is the most frustrating way they could win the wild card round. They go out there and get pummeled in game one and turn right around. So there’s there’s lots of things that are on brand about this. There’s lots of things that are just, you know, they are the Reds. The Reds are gonna red. We’ve talked about that. like that this is this is the thing and and that’s how it could be, Jeff. But look, um I want to I’m going to allow a little extra time heading into the next segment because I believe that the Cincinnati Reds need to go allin and there’s a certain way that that needs to look. So, I’m going to give you my version of how the Reds should go all in coming up next. Well, the Reds got their backs against the wall. We’re in a must-win situation right here. And FanDuel doesn’t like it. FanDuel does not think that they’re going to win today. In fact, the odds on the money line for the Reds to win tonight is plus 205. So, you’re telling me there’s a chance? But there’s something about this Red’s ball club when it comes to having their backs against the wall. That seems to be when they play the best. So, I think I’m taking that money line plus 205 over on FanDuel. And at least as of right now here in the wee morning hours of Wednesday morning, uh the overunder is set at eight total runs. You got to check out FanDuel today. Download that FanDuel app and brand new users can place a $5 wager and if it wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets. Download that FanDuel app today. If you can’t watch us here on YouTube, we are in every single audio podcasting feed that’s out there. I think if you find when we’re not on and you need us to be on it, uh, message Jeff. He will get us there. All right, Jeff, let’s kind of dive into this because it’s the it’s this is it. It’s elimination for real. Uh, we’ve been talking for weeks now about this is kind of an elimination game. It’s kind of an elimination game. Today is an elimination game. Last game of the year can’t hold. You have to Nope. You have to take all of your chips and you have to push them to the center of the table right now if you’re Terry Francona. And I want to start with what that looks like from a pitching standpoint because previously announced that Zack Latell was going to go in game two for the Reds with Andrew Abbott going in game three. It’s absolutely absurd to me that in this game two elimination game you would have Andrew Abbott sitting there twiddling his thumbs. That cannot be allowed to stand. They have no such thing as game three. No such thing as game three. They have to start Andrew Abbott in this game. Also available to you out of the bullpen to today is Nicolola. So my plan for this game is Andrew Abbott as much as he can give you followed by Niclo as much as he can give you and maybe that gets you to Santion Pagan. And that is your pitching lineup for this game. And then if you get to game three, if you get to game three, hang on because if you get to game three, I’m starting Chase Burns. I’m following him with Nick Martinez and then anybody else that’s got life left in their arm that’s not in the B-group pitches in the game. That’s how I manage the pitching staff over the next two days. I can see that. I I So with that with that in mind, I think I would amend it just a little bit because I like the idea of piggybacking Chase Burns with Andrew Rabbit. You go lefty with the breaking stuff and the nice change up to righty that’s gonna blow you away in a crazy slider. And as much as we just talked about blowing you away kind of being a tough thing to really try to do to the Dodgers lineup when they’re already, you know, used to the change up and the breaking ball and all that stuff that Andrew Rabbit’s going to throw their way, then you give them that change of pace. And then on if you get to game three, which quite frankly I like this idea of the go allin tonight because honestly if you don’t go allin tonight then there ain’t going to be another game. And so there is no more other game. But if we get to that point then you could do some version of Nicolo Zack Latell at that point. Go lefty righty. I like the lefty righty thing because it messes with their lineup. We saw whenever they brought in whenever the Reds brought in Brent Sudter, there were some changes that the Dodgers made because the Dodgers play the the matchups, we always talk about, you know, people that want to push back on platoon and all this other stuff. Like the Dodgers are the main team that does this. And so if you can force Dave Roberts to be like, “All right, am I going to start my right-handed heavy lineup? Then Chase Burns comes in and then I got to bring in my lefties and then you got to bring in another lefty or something like that.” And maybe that’s the other thing is that you go lefty righty lefty and Andrew Rabbit, Chase Burns, Nicolado. But whatever it is, you can then sort of have some sort of Frankenstein game three. It kind of feels like announcing that Zack Liddell is going to start game two that you’re making the Frankenstein game game two and we can’t do that now because the Reds didn’t win game one. No, I there’s some wisdom to what you’re saying about going to Chase Burns in game two, but I I really feel like, you know, I I made reference earlier to the horse that got you here, right? Andrew Abbott leads this team in war at 5.6. He’s the guy that should start this game. The number two guy in war on this team is Nicolola at 4.9. I It’s true. There’s no guarantee of a game three. I’m running those two dudes out there and we’ll figure out the rest later. I I I just I don’t know. There there’s a little wisdom to to making Dave Roberts make moves. I get it. Maybe if I will have a few minutes to think about that. Maybe I would amend this. But means Max is not in the lineup because he can’t hit lefties, right? So I So that’s that’s a nice you know the lefty. If you stay lefty then Maxy just doesn’t No. You know what? I I think I’m sticking with where I started with this. I want to go Abbott Looo and maybe those are the only two guys that pitch. Maybe those are the only two guys that pitch game two. If if Abbott gives you five and Lollo gives you four, we’re out of here. We get a win. And now you’ve got a really rested bullpin to go in game three to to Frankenstein it. Uh with Chase Birds leading the way, followed by Martinez and Pagan and Santion and everybody else. Um but you got to win game two. So I I’m running the two big war guys out there. I I’m gonna stand by that. Now let me ask you this. Yeah. How do you go allin with the lineup? What does that look like? because I I think that there’s a couple a couple things. Uh shout out to Tim Daniel. I want to start with something he mentioned. Tyler Stevenson has to be the starting catcher in in game two. Not there’s no more Yeah. No more 5050 with him and Trevvinho because Trevvinho can’t hit. We We’ve seen We know this. It’s it’s it’s proven. Um so yeah, Tyler Stevenson’s got to play. Will Benson’s got to play. Sal Stewart’s got to play. We’re going power for power here. And I get it. There is no chance that the Reds can match power for power with the Dodgers. But what they hope is the pitching lineup that they put on the mound, the Reds, shuts down as much of the power as they can from the Dodgers side and then all of the power that the Reds push forward in their lineup gets going because they can’t do this run prevention over run production thing. How would you feel about this lineup? Uh, and again, it’s going to be a right-hander going. Correct. So, if they go TJ Fredel, Gavin Lux, Ellie Dea Cruz, move him back up already. Surprised they didn’t do that for game one, but yes, I agree. Then go Noel V Marte. Then go Tyler Stevenson, Spencer Steer. That guess it’s a seven. Sal Stewart eight, Matt Mlan, nine. Do it. That That’s That should be the line. Or I didn’t even have Will Benson in there, right? Oh, I thought you did. Sorry. I think I missed Benson. But, you know, sub him in. Sorry. But, you know, basically what I just did there was I kind of put all of the high on base percentage people against left-handed pitching or right, sorry, against right-handed pitching. and just run it from whoever’s got the highest on base percentage. Just run it that way and try and score some runs. I don’t know. Well, it’s most likely that the Reds I mean, if they face a lefty, it’s going to be for like an inning at most because when you go down and look like Emtt Sheen was warming up in the bullpen there for the uh for the Dodgers toward the end of the eighth inning and then they actually got out of the jam. But Emit Shien would be the guy that comes in after Yoshi Nomu Yamamoto. And both of those guys, Yamamoto and Shien are both right-handed. So, if that is the plan and and maybe they sandwich in a left-handed reliever in there for like one inning, you could conceivably just grin and bear with whoever it is that’s up at the plate at that point and then they bring in sheen and then you still got your lefty strong your, you know, strong lineup against right-handed pitching because this is the strength of this lineup as much as there can be and and just keep going with that. I I I’m I’m I think I’m done with the 2025 experiment of run prevention over run production at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers average five and a half runs, Steve. You’re not going to hold them to two. You might hold them to three, possibly to four, but you’re not holding them to one or two runs at home. It just doesn’t happen. I think they got shut out like once and I think they probably had a handful of games where they scored one run, but for the most part, this team scores a lot at home and so you got to run with them. If they’re going to if they’re going to run a race, then you can’t walk that race. And it seemed like they tried to walk that race in game one. Yeah. Um you’re absolutely right. I I I think we all kind of know what needs to happen. The question is, does Terry Francona know what needs to happen? Um, this is this is not your regular old baseball game. And I really want to not get swept. So, I need the Reds to go all in. I need the Reds to push those chips to the middle of the table and we’ll figure out Thursday on Thursday. And on that note, Jeff, let’s let everybody get some rest, get charged up. Game is once again a 9:08 start tonight, folks. So, sip some coffee, be ready. This one’s going to go late. Hopefully, we’re celebrating a Red’s win. We will be back in your feeds tomorrow, win or lose, to talk about game two of the wildcard round as the Cincinnati Reds take on the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine Dodger Stadium. Uh we’re going to keep gathering up the news, the notes, the reports, the rumors, the information. We’re going to bring it all right back here to keep you locked on Reds every single day. What do you think? I asked folks on Twitter, who’s going to be more surprised by the ABS challenge system, umpires or the fans at Dodger Stadium? What’s your answer to that? The fans at Dodger Stadium, 100%.

Cincinnati Reds face elimination after Hunter Greene’s playoff meltdown. Can they bounce back against the Los Angeles Dodgers?

Steven Offenbaker and Jeff Carr break down the Reds’ disappointing Game 1 loss, analyzing Greene’s struggles and the team’s late-game resilience. They strategize for a must-win Game 2, debating lineup changes and pitching options to counter the Dodgers’ high-powered offense. The hosts explore historical wild card series comebacks and discuss the electric atmosphere at Dodger Stadium.

Will Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo’s combined efforts be enough to keep the Reds’ postseason hopes alive? Tune in for expert analysis and bold predictions as Cincinnati fights to force a decisive Game 3 at Chavez Ravine.

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