Chiefs vs Jaguars Picks – NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Chiefs vs Jaguars Picks – NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Yo, what’s up? Welcome back to another episode of the SWAS. NFL week five continues. Uh, Monday Night Football, Chiefs, Jags, and Jacksonville. Was a good weekend for me. Back-to-back great weekends. Uh, I you don’t get to say that very often in this sport, man, where I had backto-back weekends where I had a winning college football Saturday and a winning NFL Sunday. You don’t get to say that very often. So, relish these moments. Hopefully, it continues. Chiefs, Jags, let’s do it. Oh, yeah. I forgot to mention, there was a lot of funny comments about this. A lot of people DM me about this, too. People were DMing about on Instagram about this. Um, so yeah, the question was finally answered. Cooper Rush not worth 2 and 1/2 points. I mean, is Cooper Rush worth 2 and 1/2 points? I would hope Quinners put up a decent statline against Arizona State. If he didn’t, we have a real problem. You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they have the one good game against Panthers at home. When Toast talks about the kicking market, it’s like some earth is flat Andy, true or false? This is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it’s going to be very I think this is going to be ugly. Hey, get this to us. All right, so it looks like we’re still sitting at a flat 3 and 1/2 in this one. That’s where it’s been for several days now. Um earlier today, they raised the limits to 30K. Still sitting at 3 and a half. Uh they seem pretty comfortable at this number. All right, so Chiefs, Jags, let’s talk about it. Uh Chiefs pick up a huge win last week against the Ravens. uh which was pretty much a battle to see which of these elite teams is going to be in serious trouble. Remember both these teams were 1 and2 heading into this game. It was a huge game. Uh Chiefs get the comfortable win. They moved to two and two. Ravens dropped to 1 and three and now 1 and4 earlier today in a vi wow they got crushed by the Texans. So the Ravens, they might be entering were punting on the season territory uh with their current with their current injury situation, but this video is not about the Ravens. Big win for the Chiefs. 3720 was the final score. Um, now they go on the road to see a Jacksonville defense that’s been lights out. And yes, you heard me say that correctly. The Jacksonville Jacks defense has been lights out. In fact, on paper so far this year, Jacksonville’s had one of the best defenses in the NFL. Are we living in a Twilight Zone? The Jacks are fifth in success rate, third in EPA. They’re legitimately one of the best defenses in the NFL so far this year. Um, this is a tough defense to figure out cuz obviously we’re four weeks in, enough of a sample size where we have to start giving them some credit. We can’t say, “Hey, this isn’t real.” Um, it’s getting to the point where we might be just straight disrespectful for saying that. Um, remember this is a Jags team that has a brand new DC. Well, a brand new coaching staff overall, but we got a new DC. Uh, it’s Campanial now. It was Ryan Nielsen who ran a ton of man coverage last year. Campile takes over and he made it clear in camp we’re going to be running a zone heavy defense. We’re going to see a lot of zone coverage and that’s exactly what they’ve done so far. Their sixth and zone coverage frequency. Over 78% of their defensive snaps have been in zone. We’re seeing a lot of cover six from Jacksonville. They actually lead the NFL in cover six frequency. When you run a defense like that, you’re basically saying you’re not going to beat us over the top. We’re not going to give you any of those big explosive downfield passing plays. If you want to score on our defense, you’re going to have to dink your dunk dink and dunk your way down the field. And we’re banking. you’re going to make a mistake before you’re able to complete the drive. That’s essentially what you’re saying when you’re running a defense with 25% cover six frequency. Now, this defensive strategy, it works against a lot of NFL quarterbacks. These quarterbacks with big arms like a CJ Strad type that love to make the big throws, that love to make the highlight reel throws that don’t ne that might not necessarily have the patience to dink and dunk their way down the field. It’s successful. In fact, it’s becoming more popular. You you’ll hear a lot of NFL people talking about it. These two high safeties, these deep coverage looks are becoming more and more popular. But if there’s one quarterback on planet Earth that you trust to dink and dunk their way down the field for 48 minutes and win a road football game, is it not Patrick Mahomes? Up to this point in the season, Jacksonville has not seen the best of quarterbacks. They played Bryce Young. They played Jake Browning, who came in, I think in the second quarter, who by the way beat the Jags, was like kind of piecing the Jags up. Uh they played CJ Stroud, who’s not a bad quarterback, but he’s kind of like the big throw, the the big play guy. And then they played Brock Party. And if you’re thinking, “Oh, well, Kyle, Brock Party is pretty good.” Okay, I agree. Brock Party is pretty good. Well, San Francisco was moving the ball pretty efficiently in that game. In fact, they were moving the ball a lot more efficiently than the Jags were. They averaged 6.1 yards per play and success rate over 52%. The story of that game was not, “Oh, this Jags defense was shutting Brock Pery down.” Not at all. The story of that game was San Francisco had four turnovers and the Jags have zero. You win the turnover battle four to nothing, yet you’re going to win some football games. In fact, considering they won the turnover battle four to nothing, you look at the final score, the 49ers had the ball at midfield with a chance to win the game in the final 3 minutes. You win the turnover battle four to zero and you still almost lost the game. I mean, this looks like a really great win on the road in San Francisco. And it was a great win. It’s a great win for the Jags, but considering they won the turnover battle four to nothing and still almost lost the game. I mean, the final score just becomes a little less impressive. Jacksonville hasn’t had much of a pass rush so far this year. Uh Patrick Mahomes should have time to work. And I mean, look at Mahomes numbers with a clean pocket. He’s efficient, got a nice passer rating, turnover worthy play rate is super low. He’s efficient, protects the football. Look at the yards per pass attempt. 6.5. When you give Patrick Mahomes a clean pocket, he’s efficient, protects the football, throws it underneath. tell me Patrick Mahomes isn’t the perfect quarterback to beat what Jacksonville has done so far defensively. And I want to be clear about something. It’s one thing you have to consider when you’re looking at these numbers. We’re not the only ones that see these. Obviously, the Jacksonville coaching staff is looking at these sort of numbers as well. They know that Mahomes is perfectly equipped to beat what they’ve been doing defensively. What I’m saying is based on what Jacksonville has done so far defensively, Mahomes is a very tough matchup for their secondary and for their defense. Now, maybe they make adjustments. Maybe the Jags come out and they’re super aggressive defensively. I mean, I’m not sure. I don’t know much about this DC. So, maybe they make some adjustments. All I’m saying is looking at these numbers based on what the Jags have done so far defensively. Mahomes is a really tough matchup for him. And then you add on the fact that Trayvon Walker might not play in this game for the Jags. Uh now, he actually did participate in practice on Saturday. He missed all week of practice, but I think he practiced on Saturday, so maybe he’s good to go. But, I mean, overall, I like Kansas City to move the ball in this game. I I think Mahomes is a tough matchup. Now, on the other side of the ball, this is what you’re looking at if you’re backing Jacksonville. Well, that’s actually you’re probably looking at the defense as well, but one of the key aspects of this game if you’re taking the points with the Jags right here. The Jags have been running the football. They’re 12th in success rate, seventh in EPA per rush against a Kansas City defense that has terrible numbers against the run so far this year. 29th in success rate per rush, 31st in EPA. So, is Kansas City able to keep this Jags run game that looks pretty good in check here? Now, I want to point out that the Jags may be a little guilty of patting their rushing numbers against some bad defenses. If you split their game logs up, the only time they saw a good defense was Houston, and they weren’t really they weren’t really able to run the ball in that game. 3.8 yards per carry, just 87 yards rushing. If you look at their other three games, Carolina, terrible defense, Cincinnati, historically bad defense, and San Francisco, super injured defense. In those games, they really ran it up. 5.8 yards per carry, success rate over 44% for uh per rush, over 165 rushing yards per game. So, the only time they saw a good defense, they weren’t able to run the ball like that. Now, you might be thinking, “Oh, well, Kyle, the Chiefs don’t have a good run defense this year, though.” And I mean, based on the numbers, you’d be correct in saying that. Look at their rushing numbers so far. Look at their defensive numbers against the run so far this year. But here’s the thing. I think the Chiefs run defense is way better than these numbers show. If you take a a closer look at the Chiefs games here, hear me out. This might be a little thin, so just hear me out on it. If you take a closer look at the Chiefs season so far this year, look at the first two games against the Eagles and the Chargers. They allowed four yards per carry, 109 rushing yards per game. These aren’t elite defensive numbers against the run, but they weren’t bad against the run in their first two games against the Eagles and Chargers. It’s in the last two games that’s where they’ve gotten cooked on the ground. But if you watch those games, Scataboo in the Giants game, they were ripping off runs in the second half when the Chiefs had, I think, a 10 or 11 point lead. That’s when Scataboo was ripping off some runs. So the Chiefs might have been sitting back in coverage. And in the Ravens game, Justice Hill ripped off a 71yd touchdown run when they were up like 30. So the the rushing stats from these last two games against the Giants and Ravens, I think they’re a little bit padded. And look, I’m not saying the Chiefs have a good run defense. I just don’t think they’re nearly as bad as their their year-long numbers show. You got to think Spagnola knows the Jags need to run the ball in this game. Uh Trevor Lawrence really hasn’t been an efficient thrower at all. He’s played some bad defenses, too. Carolina Cincinnati injured San Francisco defense. He still doesn’t have efficient passing numbers. Uh he hasn’t even been under much pressure. He’s only been pressuring on 22.4% of his drop backs. He’s one of the least pressure quarterbacks in the NFL so far this year. and he still has terribly inefficient passing numbers. Trevor Lawrence has really struggled with pressure. He’s really struggled from a clean pocket. The Chiefs pass rush, that’s the strength of the defense, one of the strengths of the team. I just don’t think the Jags passing attack poses much of a threat here. So, Spagnola knowing the Jags need to run the ball, I think he’s able to at least slow it down. I think he might be able to stop it, honestly. Uh, I’m on the Chiefs here. I think this is a good matchup for Kansas City. They’re only two and two, so we can’t play the, oh, the Chiefs are going to sleepwalk angle. They need wins. They’re only a 500 football team right now. Uh, so I got the Chiefs at a flat three. I don’t think you can get that anymore. I think I got minus 118 on Chiefs minus three. I would still consider betting it at the 3 and 1/2. Just make sure you find a cheap 3 and 1/2, like a plus 100, cuz I’d probably make this game a strong four. So, at at minus 3 and 1/2, I don’t know if it’s necessarily a huge edge. I do like my Chiefs minus three bet, though. I think I’m on the right side here. Do it, Momes. Thanks for watching. Uh, quick announcement, by the way. The text message alerts got shut down last week. It got flagged as gambling, which doesn’t even make sense. They flagged it as gambling text. When I showed them when I set up the service, I showed them exactly what I was going to be sending and they approved it. So, uh, I think I’m going to set it up where you get push notifications. I’ll let you all know in the next few days. Uh, but sorry about that. If you were getting the text alerts, you haven’t got them the last few days, that’s why. So, thanks for watching. Let’s have a good week. Remember to bet responsibly.

Kyle Kirms shares his breakdowns and picks for the Week 5 Monday Night Football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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