The San Diego Padres Failed Their 10 Year Rebuild…

The San Diego Padres Failed Their 10 Year Rebuild…

Oh, the San Diego Padres’s, a team that I had a lot of hope for in 2025, and they lost their first round in the playoffs to the Chicago Cubs, as well as the umpires. I mean, what a terrible call in the absolute best advertisement for the ABS system that will be coming in 2026. Xander Bogart, I feel bad for you. You got absolutely hosed by the umpires. Unbelievable. Anyway, the Padres’s got eliminated and it is really time to worry about the future of the San Diego Padres’s. I’m kind of starting to think that last year might have been their best chance to win a World Series and they let it slip away against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Joe Musgrove last year in the playoffs got a season ending injury for 2025 which really hurt them this year. They did not have the pitching to compete in October and a lot of that is because of Michael King’s injury, Joe Musgrove’s injury, and Dylan CE regressing a little bit in 2025. Nick Paveta, however, had a career year, but I’m not so sure that he’s going to do that again. A lot of his metrics were very similar to what he was doing in Boston the last 5 years, and those were not good years. So, I’m not really sure if Nick Paveta is going to be this low three erra guy going forward. And I’m incredibly worried about the free agency class coming up for the San Diego Padres’s. By the way, if you like content like this and want to see more, please consider subscribing. I know that you’re probably not subscribed because only 4% of my viewers are, but if you want more like this, subscribe. Thanks. I don’t want to drag this fan base down more than it already is right now, but it’s the reality of baseball and the guys that they might be losing in this upcoming free agency class are real difference makers. And if they do lose these guys, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble for the future. Dylan CE and Michael King, two guys that I mentioned in the starting rotation, two former allstars, two very, very good baseball players are free agents. And again, these are realistically the guys that you would want being one and two in your rotation. Ryan O’Harn, who was also very good for the San Diego Padres’s, is a free agent as well, along with Luis Arise, who obviously, as we all know, is an extremely good contact hitter. And Robert Suarez should opt out of his contract because he has a player option for $8 million. If Robert Suarez leaves, this won’t be the end of the world because of how good the Padres’s bullpen is. They’re just ridiculous. Jason Adam, I believe, tore his Achilles or ruptured his Achilles, whatever it is. I don’t think he’ll be coming back in 2026, but maybe towards the back end of the season, he will be. Either way, Adrien Morahone and Mason Miller are still incredible as a relief duo. But not having that Robert Suarez or Jason Adam will make them significantly worse in 2026 again, unless Jason Adam does come back. The Padres’s are already fifth in the league in payroll for 2026. They’re sitting at around $194 million, which is around $50 million away from the luxury tax. And according to baseball reference, they estimate that arbitration is going to be about $25 million for the Padres’s. So, you just have to add that as well. There are big contracts in San Diego. Obviously, Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado, but also Jackson Merrill and Jake Croninworth. These guys make up a sizable chunk of money and it’s going to be hard to add to these guys, especially as their contracts start to go up. I believe that Nick Paveta was only making $4 million against the luxury tax in 2025. This series making 21. Joe Musgrove will also be making $20 million. U Darvish will be making 16 as well. Xander Bogarts, the 25 that he makes every year. Like I said, 25 for Manny Machado, 20 for Fernando Tatis Jr., which is an absolute steal, by the way. And then guys like Raone Lauraniano will be making some money as well. Jackson Merrill still only making $2 million in 2026, though. But like I said, the rotation is going to be a set of band-aids in 2026. Is JP Sears going to come up and pitch some innings as a starting pitcher? I just don’t know who else is even going to be. Pavetta, Joe Musgrove, and a very old Udarbish right now is what that rotation is looking like. Will they go out and get a starting pitcher in free agency? I’m sure they will. But are they going to be able to bring back both Michael King and Dylan Cease? Probably not. My biggest concerns are this pitching staff because it was supposed to be really good in 2025 and it just wasn’t. And I don’t think that they’re going to be able to spend around $60 million on Michael King and Dylan Cease. They’re going to have to replace Luis Arise and Ryan O’Harn as well. And again, if you’re spending $60 million on King and Cease and you’re only 50 million away from the luxury tax and that’s before the 25 million that’s being added for arbitration, I don’t know how you’re going to add a lot of money. I know that AJ Prowler is a little bit of a maniac and doesn’t care about money. it seems like. But the San Diego Padres’s were not really spending last off season either. And I think that that’s because of the unfortunate passing of their owner. Now that the owner’s brother is taken over, I don’t know. It doesn’t seem like they’re going to be as willing to go out and give those massive contracts like they did to Xander Bogarts and Manny Machado. And again, that concerns me a lot because the Padres’s traded away their entire future for Mason Miller. Leo Dere is one of the best prospects in baseball and they traded him away along with most of their top 20 prospects in their system. Now, they most likely have the worst farm system in all of Major League Baseball. And I’m not exactly sure how it’s ever going to improve when they trade away so much talent so consistently to get more MLB talent. But if they’re not winning, I don’t know what that does for you. And now it’s time where you’re asking, did AJ Prowler mess up the Padres’s future? They have stars. They have stars in the bullpen. They honestly still will have stars in the rotation, and they have stars all over the offense, but they’re not winning. Again, I think that their best chance might have been in 2024 against the Dodgers, but they let it slip away. And that’s going to potentially be a haunting reality of what the San Diego Padres’s are going to be over the next decade or so. I just don’t know if in 2026 this Padres’s team is going to be even as good as it was last year. If you’re losing Michael King and Dylan Cease, you need to find a way to replace those two players. And if you’re not going to be able to pay big money on the open market and you don’t have prospects, I don’t know how you’re going to be able to make a trade either. So, if you can’t make a trade and you can’t pay players, how are you going to replace these guys? It’s most likely not going to be in a house because again, you just don’t have the prospects for it. You traded them all away. So, where this team goes, I just don’t know. Not to mention, the offense in the playoffs was also very, very concerning. I don’t know why they were all so bad. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are two very good postseason players, but they were really bad. I think they only combined for one hit or something like that. Maybe each of them had one hit. I don’t really remember. They didn’t get a lot of hits, though. Not to mention, the Dodgers are as scary as ever, and they’re going to remain scary, so you’re always going to be competing with them. And I don’t know how the Padres’s rotation is going to get anywhere close to a rotation of Yamamoto, Tyler Glass, now Blake Snell, Show Otani, Roki Sasaki in the future. It’s ridiculous how good that rotation is. I don’t know how the Padres are going to be able to compete with that. And if you can’t compete with the best in your league, let alone your own division. How are you going to look at yourself in the mirror and say that this is a team that can go and win a World Series? I don’t know where the Padres’s go from here. I don’t think it’s rebuild potential yet, but they need to go out and get a starting pitcher or two, as well as bring back their guys, and I just don’t know how that’s going to be possible with their current payroll situation. Of course, baseball is baseball, and you can pay as much as you want to players. There is no hard salary cap, but I don’t know. The San Diego Padres’s are in a very, very difficult spot. I’m concerned about the present and I’m extremely concerned about the future. The bullpen and offensive core is going to still be really, really good, which is why I can’t give up on this team yet. And I don’t think that they should sell and kind of start to rebuild. But what a disappointing season after coming off of such a good season last year. They really gave the Dodgers a run for their money and this year they couldn’t make it past the wildcard round. Extremely disappointing. Let’s see where the Padres’s go from here.

The San Diego Padres’ 2025 season ended in bitter disappointment with a swift three-game sweep by the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series, despite an aggressive push that included a frenzied trade deadline spree of five deals involving 22 players to bolster their roster. What went wrong was a toxic mix of offensive underperformance from key stars—Fernando Tatis Jr. endured power droughts and a late illness absence, Xander Bogaerts was robbed by a controversial low strike-three call in the ninth inning of Game 3 that sparked postgame umpire confrontations, Manny Machado posted his lowest full-season numbers as a Padre, and the lineup as a whole ranked 28th in batting average (.252) and OPS (.711), going ice-cold with a .189 average against the Cubs—compounded by injuries like Dylan Cease’s quad issue and Ramon Laureano’s fractured finger, shallow depth in the rotation and bullpen that failed to hold slim leads, and the Cubs’ flawless defense led by Dansby Swanson limiting scoring chances at Wrigley Field’s day games. Despite strong pitching flashes and a late regular-season surge that clinched a playoff spot, these failures left the Padres short of overtaking the Dodgers in the NL West and facing another tough offseason under GM A.J. Preller.

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