The only way the Cincinnati Bengals can beat the Green Bay Packers is if the Packers beat themselves

The only way the Cincinnati Bengals can beat the Green Bay Packers is if the Packers beat themselves

The only way the Bengals can make it a game against the Packers, much less win, is if Green Bay beats itself. You are Locked On Packers, your daily Green Bay Packers podcast. Part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. You were locked on Packers, part of the Locked On Network. your team every day. I’m Peter Bowski and I cover the Packers for the Leap, a newsletter I would love for you to subscribe to. Follow me on Twitter, Peter_Bukowski. Follow the podcast on Twitter, Locked on Packers. Like us on Facebook, subscribe to the podcast, iTunes, Spotify, Google Podcasts. Wherever you find podcasts, you will find Locked on Packers, the number one Packers podcast on the internet and the show for fans who know what happened. They want to know why and how. Thanks to everyone who makes Locked on Packers their first listen every day. We hope you like starting your day with us as much as we like starting our day with you. The Packers and maybe around the league. I I think the Packers may be the only team that can beat the Packers. You look around the NFC, you look around the AFC, those teams are not scary. The Packers beating themselves is the way that they lost to the Browns and it’s the way they lost to the Cowboys, give or take. Now, the Browns, that defensive front, that defense in general, that defense is good enough to win a game by itself. We’ve seen it. Did it green back? But it ultimately landed on a self-inflicted wound that the Packers just a mistake they could not make with the blocked kick at the end. Now, the Browns made that block, but it’s a mistake from the Packers that leads to that. The Cowboys, Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level. For my money, he’s the MVP. You could say Baker Mayfield. It’s those two guys. And I think there’s there’s a gap, a sizable gap between them and everybody else. he’s capable of, you know, channeling, I don’t know, the the ghost of Roger Stalach in a game and just absolutely being mesmerizing for for two and a half quarters. But that game was lost because the Packers lolly gagged the final drive and just couldn’t put together three coherent plays from inside the 15 yard line. It was the Packers, not the Cowboys, that beat the Packers. I know there are a lot of cynical Packer fans out there right now going, “This game is going to come down to a field goal, and I’m not going to be surprised if it’s either missed or blocked.” To a point, I understand the cynicism. To a point, this Bengals team stinks. This Bengals team is, for my money, the worst team the Packers are going to play all season. Jake Browning is the worst quarterback against zone coverage in the NFL. The Packers play almost exclusively zone coverage. This offense is not capable is not capable of winning a game by itself. They’re not capable of scoring 40 points. They were down just in the last three weeks. Okay, they were down 48-3, 28-3, and 28-3. I understand the transitive property does not exist in the NFL, but that’s how bad this team is. They cannot score points with Jake Browning at quarterback right now. This team, they cannot block. There are running games around the league that can win games by themselves. We saw Saquon Barkley and and the Eagles team with Jaylen Herz last year. They were able to do it. The Ravens have been able to do it. The 49ers, of course, did it to the Packers in a playoff game. This running game stinks. There are defenses around the league and over the years that we’ve seen are capable of winning games by themselves. The Packers defense is capable of winning a game by itself. This Bengals defense stinks. This Bengals pass rush stinks. The only way, like we were joking with Spencer German on our locked on Browns, locked on Packers crossover about building a path. The path is, and we said it, Miles Garrett wrecks the game and there’s a special teams error that makes the game closer than it should be. That is exactly what happened. But the Packers allowed that to happen by playing into the Browns hands. Now, it also should be said, multiple offensive linemen down for Jordan Love. Christian Watson and Jaden Reed out. So, really, your top two receivers or two of your top three receivers are out. Ultimately, the Packers had a chance to win that game and couldn’t do it because of their own self-inflicted wounds. The expectation, there’s a reason the Packers are 14 and a half point favorites. The expectation has to be that the Packers win this game going away. And and again, that doesn’t mean they will. There are no non-conference, you know, bottom of the barrel ACC team to play or Mountain West team to play. That doesn’t exist in the NFL. You still have to come out and play. But if the Packers play a B B minus game against the Bengals, they will win. And if they play a B or B+ game or better, they will win by two touchdowns. This is a game you should win 31 to4 at least. This Bengals team cannot block. They do not create takeaways. They do not rush the passer effectively outside of Trey Hendrickson. They cannot move the ball on offense. They cannot run the ball. They’re poorly coached. They stink. They stink. Yeah, the Browns stink, but their running game, we saw it. Their running game is good, especially with Quincon Quinn Sean Junkkins. The defense is really good. I know that there’s some other games where the defense, you know, didn’t play quite as well. The Packers didn’t didn’t play their best in those games. Matthew Golden has a chance at a touchdown. like if he scores on that play instead of going out of bounds, it’s, you know, a three-score lead and the Packers win. If the Packers can put together, you know, a a couple drives late or a couple one play late instead of one play that was terrible, one of three plays into the end zone, they win. They they beat the Cowboys. They’re three- one and they are tied for the best record in the NFC as it is. They are tied for the fewest losses in the NFL. We have not seen the Packers play a complete game yet. They will not need a complete game to beat the Cincinnati Bengals. Now, am I beused at the cynicism about this team? Yeah. Do I think it is born out of fear? Do I think it is born out of experience? Do I think a lot of fans would rather be cynical and then if they lose proven right and they get to say, “Hey, I’m right.” I personally I’m not going to tell you how to fail. Personally, I don’t understand that perspective. I just don’t. Or at least I don’t I don’t choose it for my life in in any really in any facet. Because if you spend all week worrying about something and then it happens, you experience the pain twice because you experience it all week and then it happens and you experience it in the moment. You being right does not really make you feel any better. Not really. You get to say you were right. As someone who likes to be right and is right a lot, frankly, it, you know, it only goes so far. You’d still rather your team win, but that’s why it’s important that we level set expectations. The Packers should win. I don’t like to use should. They should win. They should win comfortably. And if they don’t, I will be on this show talking about how disappointing that will be, how frustrating that will be, and what might need to change, what might need to happen. Cuz if they guys, if they lose this game, it is all of a sudden red alert because the pressure on this season is to win right now today. And those calls that I think are unfair right now for Matt Lafllor’s job, they will suddenly be justified in a way that they just weren’t before. This is not the Browns where you can say, “Okay, that their defense can win a game.” This is not the Cowboys where Dak Prescott sees the face of God for two and a half quarters and and overtime and you go, “Okay, well that’s going to happen.” Jake Browning is not doing that. You’re getting Christian Watson back. Maybe Aaron Banks practiced yesterday. Zack Tom practiced yesterday. If you have a healthy offensive line, Christian Watson comes back and you still can’t look like the Super Bowl team you were buil as. The Super Bowl team, by the way, that we saw the first two weeks of the season. That’s a big damn problem. But if that happens, it will be because the Packers beat themselves. And that’s the frustrating thing about this team is over and over and over in these big moments, and I’m this is going back years. This is going back to Mike McCarthy. This is this is how they’ve lost. They can’t do that this week. I said yesterday, it’s it’s going to be a blowout or or it to feel good about them. You’d want it to be a blowout. This cannot be a game you win 24-21. It just can’t. I know the Bengals are are a professional football team. Jamar Chase plays over there. You know, Trey Hendrickson plays over there. T Higgins, those are good players. That team stinks. It stinks. You’re at home coming out of a buy. You’re getting healthy. Blow this team out. All right, let’s dig into some of the reasons why I think they will. The offensive line for the Bengals being the number one reason. We’ll talk about that next on Locked on Packers. This episode is brought to you by Prize Picks. Every day we make decisions, but on Prize Picks, being right can actually get you paid. Don’t miss the excitement of this football season with Prize Picks, where it’s good to be right. Just talking about the value of being right. It can only go so far. But with prize picks, it can get you paid. Playing prize picks is so much fun. Simply add a lineup of a couple players together. Take more or less on player projections like Josh Allen’s passing yards or Saquon Barkley rushing for a touchdown. And guess what? You are now in the game yourself. Download the Prospects app and use the code locked on NFL to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. That’s code locked on NFL for $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. Prize picks. It’s good to be right. PF grades aren’t for everybody. I get that. Steve Spagnola was talking about grades the other day and was like, you know, it’s hard to do without understanding the assignments. He of course then went on to admit that when teams scout they they don’t grade players but they evaluate players based on not really truly knowing the assignments or the details of those systems or those particular play calls. So I understand people’s mileage may vary. What I have always said is the the grades for PFF are most useful on the margins. which is to say if the PFF grades say a player is very good or very bad, at the very least they are directionally accurate. 57 offensive tackles have played 200 snaps this season. That’s roughly to a team, right? The Bengals two starting offensive tackles ranked 42nd and 44th in, excuse me, 47th in pass block grade. They are below average pass protecting on the edge. Aiden Hutchinson just had 12 pressures on his own against this team. Micah Parsons just has the one sack. I know Devonte Wyatt is out. The Packers uh auditioned a slew of defensive tackles you’ve never heard of just to try and get some bodies on this team because without Devonte Wyatt, there’s there’s questions about their interior pressure. I think you’ll see more Lucas Vaness lined up as a three-tech in obvious passing situations, more double A gap mugs, more Edin Cooper up the middle. This this offense, they just can’t protect Jake Browning. And in the event that they can’t protect Jake Browning, which is most of the time, Browning is going to throw the ball up for grabs, he is not an accurate quarterback, especially when you move him off his spot. And you can say, “Oh, well that was true of Joe Flacko.” Yeah. And they scored 10 points for the balance of that game. It was a turnover at the end that allows them to set up the the game- losing points for the Packers. Just don’t do that. this pass rush. This is a get-right game for the pass rush. We talked about the Packers offense having a get-right game against the Cowboys, and while that game did not end the way that we thought it would, it was in fact a get-right game for the offense. They scored 40 points on the road against a Dallas defense that could not stop anybody. And I hear people, oh, the the Bears, they won that game. They won that game scoring 31. The Packers scored 40. I’m not great at math, but 40 is more than 31. Teams have been able to score at will on the Bengals. Even teams that have struggled otherwise to score 48. Now, I get it. 48 is a little misleading with the with the Vikings score because two of those are defensive scores. Okay. 34 offensive points. That’s a ton. That is a ton. And I know Justin Jefferson not walking through that door, but this team is going to be able to score a bunch of points on Cincinnati. And then it’s going to be can Jake Browning match Jordan Love. Dak Prescott can. Jake Browning can’t. So if you can get out early, if you can get 10 nothing, 14 nothing, this game is over. this game is over. The problem for the Packers against the Browns was they couldn’t get that one big play that got them the comfortable lead. If you could have gotten the 17, you win. There is no way the Browns were going to score 17 against the Packers defense. This this Bengals team can score 17 against the Packers, but I would expect this Packers offense to score 30. you win a game 30 to 17, you feel much better about the way things go. This this unit is the unit where the Packers can take full advantage because this defense, they they’re pissed. They’re pissed about what happened against the Cowboys. And and look, I’ve said and and continue to believe what happened with the Cowboys was a a fluke of flukes. So, prove it. Go prove it. Don’t And don’t do it to prove me right. Do it to to prove it to yourself. This defense knows how good it is. They stressed turnovers all training camp and they have not created enough of them. Here’s your week. Here’s your week. If you create two turnovers in this game and the Packers don’t turn the ball over, the Packers will win going away. That’s the key to me. If you can pressure Jake Browning, if you can move him off his spot, it’s over. and the the zone defense numbers. Uh the the numbers against Jake Browning for zone defense, I mentioned them. Last in EPA, last in total EPA, last in passing EPA against zone coverage. The reason that he’s so bad is because he’s just not accurate on the move. When you move him off his spot, it’s a problem. And now when he can get to his back foot, man coverage, identify one-on ones, and rip it. Yeah, Jamar Chase can make you right. T Higgins can make you right as a quarterback. You don’t have to throw perfect balls, but the Packers don’t play a bunch of man coverage. They’ve played more lately because it’s been against teams that are not going to beat you theoretically for playing man coverage. The Bengals have the most talented duo of receivers the Packers are going to face this year. All due respect to Philadelphia, that passing game has been a mess, too. and they can’t find the right balance. That team is poorly coached for a lot of different reasons. This Bengals team is poorly coached, too. I I I don’t know what how Zack Taylor is still employed in Cincinnati other than that is a very conservative, very riskaverse organization, and they don’t like to spend money. They don’t want to spend money on two coaches if they can avoid it. But remember 2010, Packers defense got the Bills coach fired. got the Cowboys coach fired. You blow these teams out. If the Packers win this game 42 to3, which by the way they can do, like that’s not an exaggeration. They can do that. That might start some conversations in Cincinnati. They’re like, yes, you do have to worry about Jamar Chase and you do have to worry about T. Higgins. I’m not saying you don’t, but someone has to get them the ball. And I’m not even 100% sure Jake Browning is going to start this game. Like he probably will, but it might be a short leash. Well, guess what? The backup is Brett Ripen, who the Packers got cut two years ago when they played. And then Shawn Clifford. That’s the That’s the team. Like, you’ve got Bengals fans going, “Please go trade for Jameus Winston. Please go trade for Russell Wilson.” That’s how ugly it’s gotten in Cincinnati. That’s how bad it is. And and I know they made some plays to make the score seem better. I mentioned, you know, they kind of came back and and the Lions needed to ice that game. That’s true. But also, it was still a two-score game when Isaac Tesla scores. If the if the Lions needed to keep scoring, they probably could have kept scoring. This is a game where you just want to absolutely snuff the life out of this team. You take the ball, Matt Laflur. You take the ball. You march down the field. You score a touchdown. And now you have put all the pressure on Cincinnati. And now you’re going to let Micah Parsons and Lucas Vaness and Rashawn Garry go hunt because this pass rush for the Packers is capable of winning this game on its own. Just going in and suffocating the life out of the Cincinnati Bengals. They are capable of doing that. And that is again that is what the expectation is here. That’s how good this team is. So you you take your biggest strength, which is your pass rush. You combine it with your biggest strength on offense, which is it doesn’t really matter, frankly. They can run I think they can run the ball against Cincinnati. I think they can throw the ball against Cincinnati. It’s not Golden’s fault. The new defensive coordinator, they let Loran Rumo go. And guess what? That Colts defense is playing its ass off in Indie. Luanna Rumo is a good coach and they fired him because they’re moving deck chairs on the Titanic. I mean, I wouldn’t trust Zack Taylor to call me an Uber. He’s going to come in and out coach Matt Laflur. Jeff Hafley, give me a break. Give me a break. It’s not happening. It’s not happening. And come back to this. It’s not happening. I am not I am not afraid. Not not not afraid one iota about winding up on old takes exposed or anything like that. Not not not at all. Not even a little. This Packers defense is going to dominate. I believe that. An extra week off, an extra week of prep. Jeff Halfley is going to be in the lab. I don’t think they’re going to be as conservative as they were against Dallas. They were rightly concerned about trying to big brain it against Dak Prescott because he’s just too smart. All due respect to Jake Browning, he’s an NFL quarterback. It’s not the same level of fear. Change the picture on him. You could you could probably win rushing with four, but I would come out and just release the dogs right away. Now, if that means playing man coverage, maybe it’s simplifying the look too much. I understand Jeff Hafley has got a lot of weapons at his disposal. He’s got a lot of ways that he can attack this. I think we’ll see a mix of that stuff. I do think early downs, you just play coverage and rush four and then on third downs, that’s when you heat up Jake Browning. That’s when you come out with with those exotic looks and you can win this game. Now, the Packers offensive line, maybe not this week, maybe not even next week, but at some point they’re going to have to get this worked out. They’re going to have to figure out who plays where and who’s best where. That’s got to start this week, and we’ll talk about it next. Mazda crafts cars for those who do more than simply move. From footwork to breath work, athletes sweat all the details. Mazda brings this same intention to how they craft every model. You can make everyday drives feel like anything but. From smooth handling to intuitive controls, plus all-wheel drive standard in every crossover SUV, you can drive with confidence through any season. Winters in Wisconsin can be tough. You need that all-wheel drive. Like NFL players, Mazda sweats every detail because when you make every move count, impossible becomes irrelevant. Mazda, move and be moved. We talked about the Rasheed Walker inconsistencies last week and the opportunity that the Packers have potentially giving Jordan Morgan some reps at left tackle. The problem is uh the position he was going to play I think heading into the year is right guard and Shawn Ryan has not been good there. I understand PFF grades mileage may vary. 51 guards have played 200 snaps this season. 51. Only three have worse passing grades than Shawn Ryan. Now, I believe had Aaron Banks been healthy, had Zack Tom been healthy, Jordan Morgan would have been rotating in with Shawn Ryan and and may have already won that job. Shawn Ryan was solid last year. Looked like he had built himself into a career where you can say that guy starting caliber guard. You you like the the power that he can play with. The run game brings a nasty brings a temperament. But as a pass protector, he has just really never found his his mojo playing guard. Played left tackle at UCLA, now moved to right guard. I I’m not saying he’s a tackle, but right now he doesn’t look like a guard either. And so I I mentioned Aaron Banks back at practice, Zack Tom back at practice. So if you have Rasheed Walker at left tackle, and if you have Aaron Banks at left guard, and if you have Ellen Jenkins at center, and if you have Zack Tom at right tackle, this is a game to give Jordan Morgan half the snaps or more. Let him see if he can earn that starting job. And then if he can now Aaron Banks goes out, you’ve got Shawn Ryan to go in there. Anthony Belton still dealing with an injury that he suffered, you know, two weeks ago. We don’t know when his return is. He did not practice on Monday. But theoretically, Morgan can still be your backup there. You still have Shawn Ryan as a backup. As a backup right guard, Shawn Ryan is a great player. But so far this year, Shawn Ryan as a starting guard has been a problem. Ellen Jenkins hasn’t played his best, but they need their best. They need their best guys out there. I I thought it was possible that Jordan Morgan, Shawn Ryan, and Elton Jenkins was your best three. Shawn Ryan has just not made that seem right at this point. Now, Aaron Banks has not been great either and hasn’t played enough. That is that has just unequivocally looked like a bad signing at this point. Now, a lot of ball game left. But with everyone healthy, how does Matt Laflur approach this? They still have a ton of belief in Jordan Morgan. We’re still talking about a player who hasn’t even started a full game’s worth of games in his NFL career. I still I don’t think he’s even played a full season’s worth of games. So, we’re talking about a player who played left tackle in college, believes he’s a left tackle in the NFL, was rotating at right guard last year, got hurt, had to start a game at left guard, and then this year had to come in on short notice and play right tackle, has had to play left guard and right guard. He just needs a spot. Just let him settle in and compete at right guard. that necessitates having Aaron Banks healthy and having Zack Tom healthy. This team has just played too many different lineups. They’ve had to. Getting healthy at this point means giving Jordan Morgan a real chance to be one of your core offensive line, one of your core players on this team. And and I still have faith that he can do it now. Maybe maybe this is a week to give him some shots at left tackle. If that’s how they want to handle it, I’m fine with that. It’s more valuable. If you think there’s a chance he’s better than Rasheed Walker and we we know it’s the case. He is likely the long-term projected starter at left tackle, then no reason not to give him those opportunities now. Yes, they’ll line up Trey Henderson over there plenty. You have to be able to have plans for that. And if you don’t think he can handle it, then how is he going to handle it? He’s going to have to be playing eventually. This next stretch of games is a perfect opportunity to give this team the runway to find out who their best players are along the offensive line. give Jordan Morgan a chance in a real game. Was terrific in the preseason at left tackle. Terrific. Let’s see if he can handle Trey Hendrickson. And then you look around at some of the other teams that they’re playing like who is Arizona scaring you with their edge rush? They’re not. So you have you have a couple games here where you have a chance to see what he can do. If you want to put him at left tackle because you think that guy’s more valuable at left tackle, sign me up. sign me up. And then you have Rasheed Walker who can play left tackle too if there’s an injury or if Jordan Morgan has to go back to playing left guard because Aaron Banks get hurt or he has to go play right guard because Shawn Ryan is a disaster or he has to go to play right guard because Shawn Ryan gets hurt. Getting your best five out there. The Packers still don’t know who their best five is. They still don’t know where those guys belong. You’re a Super Bowl team. You just can’t have that. So, you need to give them some opportunities. I I’ve always appreciated the Packers willingness to say we’re just going to keep trying things until they find the right ones, but they haven’t found the right ones yet. I don’t think it would hurt them this week, which is exactly why I would like to see Jordan Morgan at least with the right guard situation, but I would I would like to see him You can’t do both. Like you either have to commit to him being your your backup left tackle and getting getting a shot to start and then go from there or you have to say Shawn Ryan struggled too much also not part of the long-term plan. Rasheed Walker is good enough. We’ve seen Rasheed Walker play at a a much higher level than we’ve seen him play this year. Now, you know, maybe you can you can put Morgan at right guard. The Packers have gotten these decisions wrong too many times, unfortunately. That’s why we have to talk about this stuff. They’ve got to get this right because it’s too important. Jordan Love, when kept clean this season, has been the best quarterback in the NFL when kept clean. Look, that’s what the numbers say. From a clean pocket, he’s the best quarterback in the NFL this year. So, you have to do everything you can. Find every mination, every variation until you find the right one. All right, we’re back tomorrow. Much more here on Locked on Packers. Um Lily Zah will be on tomorrow. We’ve got our crossover Thursday coming. Um an interview on Friday. All that as we get ready for the Packers to get back to playing football, thank goodness. Follow me on the social medias. Follow the podcast on the social medias. Subscribe wherever you get podcasts. Subscribe on YouTube. Squad show this week. All the good stuff so you can stay locked on Packers.

The Cincinnati Bengals stink, and if they make it a game on Sunday, it’ll only be because the Packers let them. The Cinncy offensive line is one of the biggest reasons why it’s such a mismatch, but the Packers have some line questions of their own.

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Peter Bukowski, co-founder of The Leap, brings you a daily look at the Green Bay Packers year round with Locked On Packers! Go beyond the latest injury news into what you’re seeing on the field, how it works, and how it might change with new players or against a division rival. It’s the podcast for fans who know what happened, they want to know why and how!

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