Edmonton Oilers 2024-25 Season Preview: Best Case, Worst Case & Realistic Predictions

Edmonton Oilers 2024-25 Season Preview: Best Case, Worst Case & Realistic Predictions

There’s a saying in the baseball world, hope springs eternal when spring training breaks. Now in the hockey world, this fall spring eternal. [Music] You are Locked On Oilers, your daily podcast on the Edmonton Oilers, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hello everyone and welcome to today’s edition of Locked on Oilers. I am your host Nick Saris and yes this October it is my 10th season doing digital hockey content and my fourth season as a host here on the lockdown podcast network and I want to thank everyone that is making locked Oilers their first listen of the day. Lockdown Oilers is a part of the Lockdown podcast network where we’ve got your team covered every single day. Today’s show is brought to you by our friends over at FanDuel, where new customers can win up to $300 in bonus bets if their first $5 bet wins. On today’s show, we’re going to muse on the opportunity before us. And in the baseball world, we talk about Hope Springs Eternal MidFebruary pitchers and catchers report. And everybody starts to talk themselves into it’s 162 games. Anything can happen. Even if you’re the Marlins, if you’re the Pirates, if you’re the Royals, maybe not the White Socks, but even if you’re one of those teams, you can start to talk yourself into anything. And we’re going to start out today’s show with that mindset. The best case scenario, and we’re going to be specific to the Oilers. We’re not going to be vague and philosophical on today’s show like we were last week when we were talking about trying to drill the meaning out of a long season when a championship is unlikely. Today we are going to be specific to the Oilers and their story for this upcoming season. So we’re going to start out with the best case. Our second segment we’ll talk the worst case and then our final segment we’ll talk about probability and what’s likely to happen. So to start out, I think my biggest determining factor I’ll say in handicapping or deciding how I feel about a given team is how many questions do they have? How many things do they need to go right for them for their best outcome for them to go far? And I’m not even saying win the Stanley Cup. I’m saying get to the second or third round of the playoffs. I think almost any team that’s capable of making it to the second round, unless you’re weak and you got an advantageous first round, if you can get to the second round of the playoffs, there’s a world where you can win the whole thing. And it’s unlikely for some, we’re still waiting on the Leafs. We’re still waiting on the Hurricanes, the Rangers, the Sharks. We’re waiting on quite a few teams to break through. The Jets, the Wild. There are a lot of teams around the league who haven’t broken through or haven’t broken through in recent history. But the more questions you have about your team going into the season, the more uncertain I am, the more questions you have, the more volatility your team has, the more opportunities there are for things to go wrong. Granted, the inverse of that coin and where we’re about to start, the more question marks you have, the more volatility you have. And volatility does go both ways. There is good volatility. There’s upside. There is potential. You I I know it might be a while since some of you were in like a sixth grade science class, but you remember the difference between potential and kinetic energy. You the more potential energy you have, the more kinetic energy you can generate. So with that in mind, I wrote down a few things here on my notepad as far as the best case scenario. So number one, Stuart Skinner establish him establishes himself as a league average goalie. Now league average last year was 9002 save percentage. 900 save percentage. We’re talking about nine out of every 10 shots you make the save. Beautiful. We’re talking about a I want to get this right. I think it was 2.82 goals against average for last year. Yes, 2.82 82 goals against average was league average last year. So with that in mind, we’re not asking a lot here from Stuart Skinner. A 900 save percentage and a 2.82 goals against average. That is not asking a lot. He gives the Oilers that they’re going to win 44 45 regular season games. Now 44 or 45 regular season games is only getting you to the mid 80s. If you want to make the playoffs, you need more things to break your way. So that means you need your backup goalie to probably win you five to 10. Ideally, if you’re a good team, your backup goalie probably wins you 10 to 15 games. If you have a really good backup goalie, maybe he’s pushing 20, but more likely than not, if you have a decent backup goalie, you’re going to record 15 wins. Or if you’re a really good team, your backup goalie is going to be able to be carried to 15 wins. Think about Jonathan Quick on the Rangers team that won the President’s Trophy two years ago as far as that goes. But Skinner leaps into respectability. He quells the conversation. We’re not talking about goalie at the deadline. We’re not talking about Conor Ingram. Skinner gives the Oilers enough in the regular season that the conversation dies down and he has the capacity to use that regular season as a launching pad into playoff success. That’s number one. Number two, Ike Howard and Matthew Savois don’t just tread water. They are useful and impactful NHL players. And I use the word impactful as opposed to productive because those aren’t necessarily correlated. It really depends on the role. I would love to see Savois get a look with Lyon once Heyman comes back. And in an ideal world, you eventually get to a point where Ike Howard is going to play with McDavid or Dry Cidle or at least sneak onto that first power play and use it as a launching pad. Same idea, same thing we said about Stuart Skinner there. Regular season success is not an indicator of playoff success, but it can help build you confidence and get you along the way. I I forget whose column I was reading today talking about what the Oilers second line was going to look like in the Athletic, but the idea being you might take your lumps in November, December, January with Howard or Savois, but if you give them the time if you let them play, figure it out and take their lumps early, you get it out of the way sooner. The sooner you get those out of the way, the sooner those guys can start to figure out what they need to do to be successful at this level and the more they’re going to be able to do to help your team. Next up, I have Jake Wman and Darnell Nurse solidified themselves as an upper echelon second pair. Jake Wman and Darnell Nurse had really good underlying results last year when they played together. Now, Walman is injured, a little dinged up in the preseason, hasn’t played much, and it is a cause for concern when guys don’t have the opportunity to ramp themselves up physically for the start of the regular season, but at the very least, the capacity for success is there. They have been successful together in the past. Okay, Jake Wman, contract year, really important that he plays well. Potentially the air parent to Matias Ekholm as that first pair left-handed defenseman. Next up on my list, Trent Frederick and Andrew Mongani fit as top sixers. Now those are counterproductive to our initial goal, our Matthew Sava IO point. I think if I Howard and Matthew Savois are stuck in the bottom six, I think that means Mapapani and Frederick are playing well enough or the team is getting the results that they don’t necessarily need to give Howard or Sava a chance. Now, those two things, there’s a very narrow narrow point there, a very small runway, if you will, where you might be able to convince me all of that can work out. And then in addition, David Tomasac looks comfortable at the NHL level. And again, I’m not saying productive. I am saying he is functional. He looks like an NHL caliber player. The game is not too fast. It’s not too physical. He is able to acclimate. And the Oilers don’t need to go out and find a third line center. I think if Tomasak sinks, the Oilers are going to have a really hard time finding a third line that they can get through to the trade deadline. I think if you’re playing Nudes there, if you’re playing Adam Henrik there, I’d be awfully concerned. And then real quick, last one. Your power play takes a step forward with a new coach Paul McFarland orchestrating things for you. The Oilers need their power play to be better, especially with the questions they’re going to have as far as generating five-on-ive offense. They get a better power play in the mix. They might be cooking with something. We’re going to take our first break on today’s edition of Lockdown Oilers. When we come back, I’m going to tell you, the worst case scenario, and not saying it’s going to happen, but it could. The NFL season is here and FanDuel has an offer you don’t want to miss because right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That’s right. Pick a bet. Put down $5 and get 300 in bonus bets if you win. That’s right. Pick a bet. Put down five bucks and if it hits, you’ll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use on the FanDuel app. I love using FanDuel because it makes however you want to play easy. 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Thank you to everyone who is hanging out on this edition of Locked on Oilers as we are ramping up for the start of the regular season. And part of that ramp up is of course the philosophical, the existential, but today we are being specific. What we think is going to happen. Yep. Earlier in the offseason, I did an episode where I went player by player talking about their goal total, over under, what’s realistic, and I do these exercises both for me just to get a gauge on where I’m at on people. And my opinions and my takes, they evolve. I read other people’s work. I listen to other people’s work. I look at the data. And I wouldn’t say I necessarily aggregate, but I am willing to change my opinions. I’m willing to grow to expand my perspective and I am just trying to get as good of an answer as I can and a lot of these questions don’t have definitive answers. There is no yes or no. It’s maybe you know no black or white but gray. And in talking about this when it comes to worst case scenario my headline for that section on my notepad is floor not ceiling. So number one, neither Ike Howard or Matthew Savois make an impact at the NHL level. I think if we are looking at a world where the Oilers top six is largely Trent Frederick, Andrew Mongani, Kain, Pat Coulson, Nan, Zack Heyman in addition to Connor and Leon. I think the Oilers are going to have a really rough go of it, especially at five on five. And look, I know that when push comes to shove, if Chris Knobblak really, really feels the need to, they’ll run Connor Leon together and whoever’s with them, they will put off more than enough offense at five on five to sustain being a decent team. But the goal here is not to be decent. And again, perspective, long range outcomes, there’s a lot of factors at play here. And real quick, as an aside, I do think it’s important I say this players on the team, the coach, they’re not so concerned with the long term guys on the team, the coach, they’re worried about right now. Of the 18 guys who are going to dress on opening night for the Oilers and then the two goalies, six of them probably won’t be on the team next year. So, as much as I hear on this podcast and Stan Bowman, at least in should be in his office thinking about, well, next year, year after, year after, the guys out there and the coaching staff, they were playing for right now. There’s no tomorrow. There’s no future. And when you have that mentality and look I my perspective on some of these questions is very different from that of a player’s experience because I am looking at things in a vacuum. I am not looking at things experientially. I am not taking anecdotal evidence into account. I am looking at the production and what is likely to happen. And when we’re talking about floor versus ceiling, you need to have a high enough floor that you can get to the high ceiling. And that’s the trick to doing this right. Both from a roster construction standpoint and a roster management standpoint. As a coach, in constructing your lineup, you want to find ways to keep a healthy baseline so you never get too too low. Your goal over the course of an 82 game season is to never get too high, never get too low. We have seen it happen quite a bit in recent NHL history where a team that has a great regular season in the case of the Lightning and the Bruins. Lightning 2019, Bruins 2022 or three, I forget which one. President Schroy set the record for points in a season out in the first round. I do think there is a strong correlation between having some adversity during the course of your season and eventual success down the road. I think anytime you get through a regular season where you’re talking about winning 50 regular season games, 55 regular season games, I think your regular season has become too easy. I think you don’t know how to respond. You know the old Mike Tyson quote about everybody having a plan till they get punched in the mouth. That that’s true. In this world, in the sports world, having some struggle helps make you better in the long term. And I think that’s why it’s important that Ike Howard and Matthew Sava are afforded the opportunity to struggle, to make mistakes, because they get an understanding of what they need to do, then we can start talking about progress. But if Howard’s stuck on the fourth line or the third line and Savois stuck on the third line and neither can get on a power play that’s not helping anyone because while right now that might give you a higher floor you know playing Frederick Mapani Kain Pod Coulson those are all solid veteran NHL guys for the most part other than Pod Coulson I would say you kind of know what you got. Now, the range of outcomes are kind of big when it comes to Majapani or Frederick, especially depending if they get to play with Connor, Leon, or both, but those outcomes are quite a bit more defined. Howard could be anything. Savvois could be anything. And I know this is kind of abstract, especially for what we’re talking about right now as far as worst case scenario, but the Oilers are going to need at least one of those two guys to make an impact on the team this year and a positive one. Next up on the list, I have Skinner stays up and down. If Steuart Skinner gives them 53 starts and he’s an 8.98 save and a 2.9 goals against, that’s not going to fly. As much as I would like to think the Oilers would be patient, and again, I I go back and forth on this a lot because I genuinely don’t know what the key is. They have a new goalie coach. We’ll see if that makes a difference, especially when it comes to the mental things. But the Oilers desperately need Skinner to give them league average goalending. League average goalending with the team that they’re going to put in front of him, that’s enough. But if he gives them what they gave him last year, that’s not going to be enough with this group. And I don’t think it’s fair that the Oilers effectively have Skinner in a for your career type season outlook the way they are right now where if he stinks, he might be really really having a hard time finding a next contract, anything more than a year, especially probably not even a chance as a starter. That’s a real conundrum for you if you’re Steuart Skinner. After that, what happens if Trent Frederick’s bad? The Oilers have committed seven years and not a crazy amount of money, especially with the salary cap going up. I mean, you saw what Capri off got. You saw what Luke Hugh’s got. But Trent Frederick, you bad seven more years. Do you really want the new version of the Luchich or the James Neil? And look, I understand those cap hits were a lot higher against a lower cap. So that that’s a little tongue and cheek, a little hyperbole. But if Trent Frederick plays in the top six, but gives the Oilers all of 10 or 11 goals, it’s not great. The Oilers are kind of counting on Trent Frederick to give them something he’s never done before at the NHL level, but by virtue of playing with Connor or with Leon or with both, there’s a reasonable expectation he should be able to give them almost 20 goals. If he only gives them 10 and he’s playing a lot of top six, Pod Coulson can give you 10 if he gets to play with Leon for the full year. After that, I wrote down these on the same line because I think they’re inherently tied to the power play. If Nan Hopkins continues his decline and Zack Heyman looks like a diminished version of himself, the power play is going to be in real trouble. And as great as Connor is, as great as Leon is, as great as Evan Bousard is, the difference last year versus the year prior on the power play is simply the danger from the secondary elements. Nude was not nearly as good on the power play last year from that opposite flank of Leyon. And Hyman didn’t have the back door success. All the tapins, all the redirects, the jam plays, those weren’t there. Defense is queued in. So if Heyman struggles or it just takes him a while to get going. You know, he’s going to miss probably all of October might bleed into November, that’s a really tough that’s really tough sledding. The Oilers, especially with the questions they have about their five on five play, they need this power play. They need this power play to be elite. Not good, elite. They need this power play to be top five with the five on five production they’re going to have. And then the last thing I have written down, and I said it in the first segment, they needed they need David Tomasac to be a passable third line center. At face value, the Oilers probably need a top six forward. just talking about trade deadline additions. If Tomasac struggles is or is just outright bad, you’re looking at needing a top six forward, a third line center, maybe a seventh defenseman and maybe a goalie. And of course, we have a playoff salary cap. Now, of course, the Oilers don’t have a ton of money to play with. And of course, a lot of the flexibility they could create is tied to guys who have no trade clauses. So the Oilers really need David Tomas to stick unless they want to roll the dice. You know, if N wants to play third line center between behind Connor and Leon, then you do Howard or Savois or Mapani and then Howard Savapani Howard Savapani and there are enough wingers here that they’ll be able to make some interesting permutations, but they really need David to work here if this team is going to reach its ceiling. We’re going to take our second and final break. When we come back, I’m going to tell you what I think is actually going to happen right after this. Did you just realize your business needed to hire someone like yesterday? How can you find amazing candidates fast? Easy. Just use Indeed. When it comes to hiring, Indeed is all you need. Stop struggling to get your job post seen on other sites. Indeed sponsor jobs. put your post at the top of the page and help reach the right candidates faster. We’ve all been in that spot where our team needs the right hire. Like yesterday, the pressure’s on and every day without the right person is a setback. Not just to you, but your entire team. That’s exactly when Indeed sponsored jobs come in handy. They make sure your post is seen by the right candidates right now. And now you can speed up your hiring process with a $75 sponsor job credit. Just go to indeed.com/lockdon right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring, all you need is Indeed. Thank you to everyone who is hanging out on today’s edition of Lockdown Oilers. And folks, hockeyy’s back. By the time you are watching this, we will be less than 48 hours, less than 24 hours away from the start of the season. And we made it. I am so excited to watch hockey. I am so excited to talk about the results of hockey games that count. And speaking of games that count, a lot of these thoughts, a lot of these questions have been percolating since I would say mid July. And this team doesn’t have the most questions of any team in the NHL. I I would point to the Canucks. I would point to the Rangers, the Bruins, maybe the Flyers to some extent, the Blue Jackets, maybe the Jets, maybe, maybe even, dare I say, the Leafs. But the Oilers have a lot more questions in their lineup going into this year than they did last year and especially two years ago. With that in mind, I think it’s important that we lay this out and lay out all of the questions and then try and debate the merits of the points, what we think is likely and what isn’t. I think almost certainly one if not both of Howard and Savois will get a chance, a real chance to be an impact player this year. If I had to pick, and I’ve been pretty adamant about this. I said this on the Pacific Division preview with the other hosts, and yes, I’m going to the notepad, I think Matthew Savois is going to end up being a top six guy and end up taking the Ryan Nent Hopkins spot on the first power play unit, or dare I say, might be the most important player on that second power play unit. Howard by virtue of being a shoot first guy and maybe needing to round out the defensive areas of his game a little bit more. And I don’t even think that’s necessarily a fair critique. I think you don’t ask a fish to climb a tree. If Howard’s good at shooting the puck, find ways to get him to shoot the puck and worry about the other stuff later. I think Savo, especially because he kills penalties, can build trust a little bit easier with Chris Knoblock in a way that Howard probably doesn’t have access to at least yet. I think that happens. So, I think you get one out of those two. I do think Stuart Skinner continues to be inconsistent and frustrate all of us and make us want to rip our hair out. So, that’s probably not happening. I’m going to go out on a limb here because I really like Jake Walman. I’m just going to be honest with you. I think Jake Walman ends up being the Matias atome replacement and atome probably comes back on a cheap deal and plays lower in the lineup. But I think Walman his skill set complements what Darnell Nurse does well. It is simply a matter of getting Darnell Nurse to buy into what his job actually is. Nurse thinks he’s a puck mover. Nurse thinks he’s Quinn Hughes. He’s Kale Mar. Darnell Nurse is a grunt. He needs to go into corners, win loose pucks. He needs to use his size. He needs to use his frame to separate the attacking players from the puck as they enter the zone. His job is to get the puck to Jake Walman who can break it out. I think Wman and Nurse work very well together. I think there is a really solid chance that ends up being a pretty good second pair. So, I’m going to give them that one on the third line. I think one of Andrew Mapani and Trenton Frederick is going to work out in the top six. I think it’s going to end up being Mapani just because he’s a little bit faster. He’s a little bit better of a forch checker. I know Trent Frederick’s bigger. I know he’s more likely to get more registered hits. I think he’ll throw a few fights, but I think Mapani has a better chance. And look, I know I’m still holding on to the 130 goal season from a couple years ago is like he could do it. And I know that’s a Homer opinion. I know that’s because I’ve been high on him for so long cuz he validates one of my opinions. But I think Mapani has a really nice bounceback year this year. And I think Trent Frederick ends up being a rough conversation two or three years from now. Is Stan Bowman still the general manager about how they can figure that out? Next up, I don’t think the power play gets back to being elite. I think it goes from like 11 to probably eight or nine. I think it takes a small step forward. I think if Savvois or Howard can find a way into the nude spot, then maybe there’s a conversation to be had about this unit adding a new wrinkle, a new dimension. But I think if we’re running Hyman at the net front, Noo at the left circle, dry settle at the right circle, Buchard at the point, McDavid circling, I think defenses, I think penalty kills have a good three years of tape on that permutation, that power play. And as good as it can be, I think the goalies are getting better. I know save percentage is going down, but I do think the angles are getting better. I think the penalty killers are getting better about knowing when to go and knowing when to stay. I don’t think the Oilers get to that elite threshold for the power play, so that’s going to end up being an X. And then I have no idea for David Tomasac. I really don’t. The European free agent goes one of two ways. They thrive or they stink. There’s not usually a middle ground when it comes to the European free agent, especially guys in their late 20s. You know, Paneran’s a little different. Came over like 23, 24, but Capri off a little bit later. He wasn’t a free agent. He was drafted, of course, but you get what I’m saying. When it comes to the guys who’ve been playing over in Europe, you got to account for differentiz rink. You got to account for different styles of play, different tempo, different physicality. And look, that’s not to denigrate the style of hockey in Europe. Frankly, I think the NHL could benefit from the larger ice surface. I think the more space you can introduce, the more creative guys can be, and I do think that’s better. I wish we were getting a the European style ice in the Olympics. You know, I was going to call it Olympic ice, but it it’d be kind of oxymoronic to do so being that we’re playing on NHL size rinks in Milan this upcoming February. But I think you can tell by the amount of hesitation. I think by the fact I split all of the questions and basically picked half of all of them, you can tell I don’t really know what to expect from this team. And look, sometimes that’s good. You can be pleasantly surprised. I think I am very invested in the outcomes for certain guys for Howard, for Savois, Majapani, Pat Coulson, even Kaan, Jake Walman of course, and yes, Tai Emerson, who I probably should have found a way to mention on the episode today, but I think the Oilers have the capacity to be a pretty good team if they get, you know, three4s of these contingencies to break their way. And that might sound like a lot, but Mapani and Frederick are pros. Tomasac has been a really good hockey player in the Swedish elite elite league. I think that’s enough. I really do think that’s enough. Now Skinner is going to give us all Ajuda and we’re just going to have to suck it up. But I think the Oilers will end up getting enough out of this group to be at least interesting come playoff time. But that will do it for today’s edition of Locked on Oilers. Thank you so much to everybody who made Lockdown Oilers their first listen of the day. Lockdown Oilers is a part of the Lockdown Podcast Network where we’ve got your team covered every single day. Be sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcast. You’re listening on Apple or Spotify, a fivestar review would be greatly appreciated. Subscribe if you’re listening or watching over on YouTube. I will talk to you guys real soon. Until then, let’s go Oilers.

The Edmonton Oilers once again enter an NHL season as the betting favorites to take home the Stanley Cup (+800 on Fanduel) but have a long journey to go. On today’s edition of Locked on Oilers, host Nick Zararis walks through the best, worst and most likely scenarios for the Oilers season the day before they hit the ice for the first time.

With such high stakes, and so many variables at play, this iteration of the Oilers has real boom or bust potential. Nick explores the potential of Matthew Savoie and Ike Howard and why their early opportunity may end up mattering more than you think.

0:00 Intro: Hope springs eternal in hockey

5:08 Best case: Skinner as league average goalie

10:13 Worst case scenario: Floor, not ceiling

15:52 Skinner’s performance crucial for Oilers’ success

20:59 Analyzing Oilers’ lineup questions and uncertainties

26:13 European free agent Tomasek’s potential impact

Edmonton Oilers 2024-25 Season Preview: Best Case, Worst Case & Realistic Predictions | Locked On Oilers
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