Houston Rockets (o/u: 54.5) | Still a title contender without FVV?! | Game Theory Predictions

The Houston Rockets, this is probably a little bit more of a complicated conversation just given Fred Van Vleet is out uh for the season seemingly with torn ACL. Their number is 54 and a half. They won 52 games last year and have added Kevin Durant, subtracted Fred Van Vleet basically uh from this group. Still have Alper and Shenun. Still have Amen Thompson. still have all of the defensive pieces that made them uh quite good outside of Dylan Brooks and uh obviously Jaylen Green is gone as well. But this is a hard number for me. I think it’s like around the numberish like in that ballpark. Uh where did you guys fall? Yeah, I ended up under. I’ll just like bite the bullet on this one because I I I know Rockets fans aren’t going to like that. Um, my thing is, so again, looking at the data over the last four years, only one I have the Rockets finishing third in the West now after the Fred Van Vleet injury. I don’t think I’m as worried ultimately about the Rocket ceiling and what they could ultimately do this year, including in the playoffs with without Fred because I think a men will develop. Hopefully Reed Shepard develops. I am a little bit more worried about their floor. I’m a little bit worried about what the start of the season looks like. Like it could be rough. Maybe they drop some games as they try to acclimate some people. What happens in games that Kevin Durant doesn’t play? Maybe the defense is just flat out good enough. But I don’t think it’s going to be much under this. But only one team that’s finished third in the West has won more games than this 54 and a half and that was 56. So just like looking at those numbers, having a little bit of questions without Fred, I went slightly slightly under. It doesn’t change who I think this team is. It doesn’t change ultimately what I think the ceiling of this team is, which is definitely a Western Conference finalist uh potential. I think they absolutely have that. I just again I have to go half of my overs, half of my unders, and they were a team that I just slightly felt okay going under with. Andrew, I I land in the same spot at the under. Um I had them over and I’ll just kind of show my hand here too. I had him in the finals before the Fred Van Vleet uh injury. I thought it’s just like a fun thing to say that it’s going to be a repeat of the 94 NBA Finals Knicks Rockets. I also thought they had the defense and then you add Kevin Durant, you add the depth that they they added and I I still think they have a lot of that depth. Um, now without Van Vleet and I’m I’m been wrestling with how important I’m making Fred Van Vleet to a title contender, is he really going to be the difference between a team making the finals and not making the finals? Um, and I I do think he is that good. I think he’s a very additive player, a steadying ship for a team that needs a point guard. And now I mean Shangun, I I think Shenun is gonna have a great season. I could see a leap from a men. you’re now asking a lot of Kevin Durant to at age 37 to be like the guy in in in crunch time and the guy uh this season as as well as asking him like he’s he played 62 games last year and 75 the year before and then has a bunch of 30 to 40 game seasons. So, I don’t I don’t think it’s a guarantee you get a full season, full bill of health from him. And there’s just more paths to the under. Even if it is like a 51 win team, that’s still the under. So, uh I also like Bryce have him finishing third, but I I do have him as the under. The way that you phrase this is correct. I I see there being more paths to the under. I think there’s a chance they blow by this to be honest with you and that we find out that Amen Thompson is like a is like an all-NBA player. Yeah. To be honest with you. Like it it wouldn’t stun me if we learned that by the end of the process that if we we look up at the end of the season and Amend Thompson is at like 20110 and seven or something like that crazy while just like completely dominating and you know slicing and dicing for Kevin Durant and then Alber Shenun is an all-star as well. like they very easily could have three allstars this year and it wouldn’t blow my mind. It It’s also just like there’s a little bit more uncertainty here because of the fact that they have an entirely new back court, right? Like Jaylen Green is gone, which I think is additive, frankly, comparatively given the fact that they got Kevin Durant. Losing Fred is like a big piece of the way that they want to play because they do want to play that kind of possession battle, right? They want to crush you on the offensive glass and they want to, you know, withhold turnovers. They were top five in turnover rate last year offensively and they were number one in offensive rebounding rate last year. I think the number one in offensive rebounding rate will absolutely continue. My guess is that with uh Amen Thompson now moving into the point guard role in all likelihood, unless it’s Reed, like God, if it ends up being Reed and Reed is good enough to just do this, they’re going way over. I think like if if Reed is what we think he is and like they’re just like, “Oh my god, this guy’s unbelievable to start.” Uh they probably go way over, right? or if they have routes to going way over. But Andrew said what worries me the most and it’s Kevin Durant’s health. Right. So Kevin Durant missed the entire 201920 season uh after his injury in the finals. 2021 35 games, 2022 55 games, 2023 47 games. 2024 he did play 75 games but then last season missed 20 games again. If he misses 20 games, I think it’s just kind of hard for them, right? Like I I I if he misses 30 games, like it’s a trouble it’s a real trouble spot, right? So I just think given that given that specifically, they’re probably better equipped than they were last year to make a deep playoff run, but they might end up being in the like 50 to 52 win bucket. is kind of where I’m at. There there are real routes here to like 60 wins though. If a men Thompson just blows up and he is an absolute stud and a savage and is just like ready to go, man. Like I think there’s a real route here to them absolutely going nuts this year and being like a real breakout team. I just kind of think there are more routes to the over or I’m sorry to the under because what if like Amen Thompson like takes a little bit of time to get his feet under him at the point guard spot and you know it takes some real like you know 25 games for them to figure out the offensive flow and structure with Kevin Durant entering the fold. It’s just a little bit different to me. What if Reed isn’t ready? Like what if Reed isn’t ready? Like that’s a real Exactly. Right. Like a real issue if Reed’s not ready to to take that on dead on. So I I love this Rockets team. I think everybody know has known for the last three years I’ve made people talk about the Rockets on this show even when they were a 20- win team because I love watching this team. It doesn’t hurt that like former podcast partner Kohl’s Wicker is in their front office now. Like I’m always fascinated by them because of that. Um like I I I love love love this Houston Rockets team. I love what they have done. It’s I just think that like they’re probably better equipped to play well in the playoffs now than they are uh in the regular season just because of KD at the end of the day like in the injuries that KD could suffer throughout the year. Sure. Okay, so I’m I am going under. I don’t feel great about it, though. Like I I I would almost like I was betting on this like I would bet the under, but then if I could find like an alternate line of like 58 wins or something and it was like six six to one or something like that, I might be willing to take the over on that and like a high number and just be like, “Oh yeah, like I’ll I’ll take like I think there’s like a 16% chance that they win 59 games. It’s just that I think that there are probably more routes to them winning 50 games. I I wrote in my notes if Amen and KD are all stars this year, this hits the over easily. Um because it’ll meet both of them both of them contributed to the point where they’re allowed to be or considered all stars around the break or whenever they they decide the voting. Um which will probably carry them throughout the rest of the season to the over. So,

Sam Vecenie, a Senior NBA Writer at The Athletic, talks all about basketball. From the NBA, to the NBA Draft, to college hoops and even some high school, Vecenie has you covered in this show.

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12 comments

  6. Ime just doesn't give an inch. It's still a dog fight, but the dogs got bigger and older/wiser. That's what I got, it's tough to lose a vet like FVV. Don't forget they shut it down early clinching2 or could have exceeded their total.

  7. Don't forget, the Rockets know the position they are in and the expectations with a KD. If they are hurting without FVV, then they have the pieces to trade for a guy that can help

  10. I think you guys are looking at the wrong things in projecting how the Rockets will do this year. Its all about Sengun. I watched the first preseason game and I watched europlay over the summer. Sengun has taken a leap. KD is only important in that he draws defenders off Sengun or that he's a good shooter that Sengun can pass too. Without Fred they will lean into "Seng-hub" quicker than they would have before – plus Reed and Amen get to develop faster. I'm buying into Sengun's 3 pointer and like Shaq I think Sengun is a 4. Sengun is way more athletic than he was last year and he's only going to get stronger. Now here's where you're going to think I'm wearing a tin foil hat – – Sengun is going to be better than Jokic by the end of the year! I think he's going to average 25, 10, 7(and I'm being conservative). By the end of the year and in the playoffs it will probably be higher. Maybe this is just wishful thinking from watching him against lesser talent(euro) and a meaningless game where no one was trying(preseason against Atlanta). However, the effort is there and so was the shooting. Prozingis had no answer against the Rockets bigs – maybe its rust or being on a new team – but I think it was Sengun. He's just that good. Look at Sengun's stats in that game. WOW! In 17 minutes he had 19 points, 5rbds, 6 assists, 2 of 2 from 3, 7 of 7 from the free throw line , 71.4% FG%. It's the shooting, especially the free throws, that tell me his shooting is for real. Without Fred they will lean into moving Sengun around(and using the double big) and he's going to thrive. The Rockets may only win 52 games but by the end of the season people will be saying "Jokic who?".

  12. I’ll let this speak for itself:

    Rockets before Ime: 22-60
    Rockets 1st year w/ Ime: 41-41
    Rockets 2nd year w/ Ime: 52-30
    Rockets 3rd year?….. 55+ easy imo
    Then literally replaced Jalen Green w/ KD

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